萨姆-维切尼评价今年选秀：今年的行情比较混乱，没有人能够稳定状元，甚至他榜单上的前十都有机会。有些人喜欢多诺万-克林根而不是萨尔，因为他定位清晰且防守影响力大；但其他人更加欣赏萨尔的运动能力和投篮潜力。一些球探喜欢里萨谢的射手潜力和犀利的团队防守表现，有望成为攻防一体的球员。而其他人则担心他的运动能力不占优，因此更喜欢像马塔斯-布泽利斯这样的球员，尽管布泽利斯的投篮和无球防守表现备受质疑。而即使效力于同一支球队，一些球探比起迪林厄姆的爆发力和速度来说更喜欢里德-谢泼德的篮球智商。
萨姆-维切尼评价卡斯尔：精英级别的防守人，有成为POA球员的潜力。可以防守多个位置，甚至大个子侧翼，在锦标赛上先后锁死了小特伦斯香农，布兰登-史密斯，让马克-希尔斯在他面前难堪。无球端空间意识很好，传球很棒，可以空中作业；投篮姿势需要大修，特别是持球投，脚步姿势东倒西歪的；但是他的手感不错，罚球和小抛投过得去。有希望成为更好的奥克洛。评价两极分化，有些人认为他值得前五，有些人认为15-20，萨姆把他范围排到了3-13.
多诺万-克林根，防守很好，作为大吨位内线虽然只打20分但是20分钟都很积极。伤愈后表现得更加灵巧。比凯斯勒更加强壮，篮板更好，同时传球和手递手表现更好。
贾里德-麦凯恩属于低开高走，投射表现非常顶，算得上肯塔基双枪之后的后场第一人，谢坡德和迪林选不到的代餐。他的投射组合技非常好，是杜克唯一能信赖的持球手。在挡拆和手递手之后表现极佳，打错位很犀利，同时敢于在篮下对抗终结。他还是个球场老鼠，训练刻苦，职业态度好；但动态静态都很糟糕，地板射手.只看投篮，他没进乐透有些奇怪。
周志豪在总决赛数据很好，但下半场被克林根完全防死导致球队被轻松拉开，只打好了前12分钟，砍下16分；之后从上半场的8分钟到下半场的8分钟，Edey只得到6分。合计18投得到22分，这个表现差强人意。靠最后8分钟，康大摆小阵容，他对白人前锋卡拉班刷到了37分。面对约翰逊的两次漏空接是球探最不满的，暴露他的防守局限性。当然萨姆认为他值得一个首轮，在掩护，要位和防守端表现不错，同时还有满槽的体力可以打满全场，这很少见。
萨姆说他最近在加州圣塔克拉拉看到了AJ-约翰逊训练，认为他在投篮训练时，表现的很好；同时，他现在站在罗恩-霍兰身边等高，可能长到了2米；他身体对抗还是很菜，身材很瘦弱。他现在看起来像大一号的安芬尼-西蒙斯（开拓者队后卫），大骨架有增肌空间。虽然NBL打得一塌糊涂但是变得更有梦想了。大约是首轮末次轮初的行情，长期投资，值得一赌。
非洲小将于尔里奇-肖姆谢岁数很小，还打了U19，但是大部分球探劝他赶紧找个学上。身高6-11.5，臂展7-4，静态诱人但是训练赛打得很平庸。他运动能力很棒，有成为扣篮好手的潜力，投射待开发；但他的场上太稚嫩粗糙，和队友的防守交流很差，很迷茫；在油漆区表现很急躁，犯规大王也是积极的二次篮板手
其他：
有两队的球探很看好两个大一生：堪萨斯的约翰尼-弗菲和匹兹堡的卡林顿。对于弗菲共识是，身材出色、运动能力不错且职业道德很好，很可能在选秀前行情上升，甚至是乐透末。卡灵顿本赛季的表现起伏不定，但在ACC锦标赛给人留下深刻的印象。在本赛季的最后六场比赛中，他场均得到18.8分，5.2个篮板和3.8次助攻。他的行情从乐透到35位左右。
普罗维登斯后卫德文-卡特的行情在15号到23号之间，是很多球队需要的即战力。他是个顶尖的后场防守人，也是本届最具竞争力的球员。本赛季，他三分有了巨大的进步，场均出手超过7次，三分命中率接近38%。姿势古怪但能进。许多球队的评估人员球探对他的评价很高，有机会加入乐透争夺战。
科罗拉多的特里斯坦-达席尔瓦在NCAA锦标赛中表现出色。本赛季，他场均可以得到16分，5篮板和2.4次助攻，投篮命中率为49.3%，三分命中率为39.5%，罚球率为83.5%。维切尼很看好他，认为他值得首轮。
原文：
The NCAA season is over, and pre-draft workout season has begun, which means it’s time to update the 2024 NBA Draft Big Board.
To be frank, I’ve been a bit gun-shy this year on releasing my board. Not because I’m worried about my opinions or reaction, but rather because trying to parse through this class has been dreadfully difficult at the top. As I’ve written throughout the year, I do not have a Tier One or Tier Two player in this class. I’m not even sure how many Tier Three players I will have by the end of the process.
At this juncture, I’m open to all possibilities about what the top of this class looks like on draft night. I would say, in some capacity, all of the players ranked in my top 10 have a non-zero chance to go No. 1 overall if things break right in terms of the draft lottery and they have a strong pre-draft process. There are players there who have a much better chance to go No. 1 than others, to be sure, but NBA teams are all over the map in this class. It does not have a sure-fire guy, so teams are doing their due diligence across the spectrum. I cannot remember a class in which the lottery will have such a significant impact on how the top will be selected.
Some like the positional certainty and defensive acumen Donovan Clingan will bring compared to Alex Sarr. Others like Sarr’s upside athletically and potential to shoot the ball. Some evaluators like Zaccharie Risacher’s two-way game as a shooter and sharp team defender. Others worry about his athletic upside and prefer a player like Matas Buzelis more, even though the evaluators who like the relative certainty regarding Risacher question Buzelis as a shooter and on-ball defender. Even playing for the same team, some high-ranking evaluators prefer Reed Sheppard’s basketball IQ to Rob Dillingham’s explosive handle and quickness. We’ll talk about Stephon Castle in-depth, but he’s a great example of there being no consensus on prospects this year.
Because there’s no sure-fire All-Star, decision-makers have many questions to ponder: What do you value in prospects? What skill sets are most important to you? What translates best in your mind? Or in many cases, what are the skill deficiencies players in this class have that are most fixable to you?
By the law of averages, multiple players will be All-Stars from this draft, even with it being a below-average one, and it’ll be because they improved something in their game substantially. Even the 2013 NBA Draft, a class that was seen as bad at the time and maintains that ignominy within front offices, had three players make the All-Star Game, with one of them becoming arguably the best player in the world for a time in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Having said that, the track record on that draft did prove to be, by and large, bad. Only seven of the lottery picks went on to be above-average rotation players, with only one All-Star in the group. After Rudy Gobert was picked at No. 27, only one player — Allen Crabbe — went on to become even an average rotation player for multiple years.
Stephon Castle, 6-6 wing, Connecticut, No. 3
I completely understand the shooting concerns with Castle; they’re real. But where I’m at in this class is simple: It’s hard to find guys who have proven they can be a part of winning basketball. And throughout the course of Big East play as well as the NCAA Tournament, Castle showcased that better than any other guy in this class.
I’m not sure what more evaluators want him to do. Throughout the season, Castle consistently took on the toughest assignment on the perimeter and wing defensively for Connecticut, a top-five defense in the country, and found success. Need someone to chase potential first-rounder Baylor Scheierman around screens? Castle can do it. Need someone to defend at the point of attack? Castle can do that. What about a big wing creator? Castle will do that, too, and shut off his water, just like he did in the Elite Eight against Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr.
Shannon came into that game averaging 27.2 points over his prior 15 games. Castle held him to eight points on 2-of-12 shooting. In the Final Four, he took on the Mark Sears assignment at point guard. Sears scored 24 but only nine of those points came on Castle, and four of those nine came on heavily contested attempts that Sears maneuvered around or shot over the top of to make. He made life miserable for one of the best guards in the country this season and made him work for every bucket. Against Purdue in the title game, Castle took long swaths of time on Braden Smith, who only scored two points when being guarded by Castle.
If that’s all he did, he’d be worth a first-round pick. But Castle also was quite good on offense. He averaged 12.5 points, nearly six rebounds and three assists while posting a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He had 21 points in the Final Four against Alabama and was the team’s best offensive player, then followed it up with 15 against Purdue. I thought he had a real case as Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four, especially when accounting for the defensive job he did on Sears and Smith.
Castle has tremendous spatial awareness as an off-ball player, plus the ability to cover ground with long strides as an on-ball driver. He passes really well, and in high school, he showcased the ability to make whatever read you want from him out of ball screens. He’s not a lead guard, but he doesn’t have to be. At 6-foot-6 with reasonable length and a 215-pound frame, Castle has all the measurements you’re looking for out of a secondary ballhandler on the wing.
As I mentioned above, the jumper is a concern. Castle made just 26.7 percent of his 3s this season and has a bit of a hitch at the top of his mechanics. His footwork getting into shots is quite differentiated in a bad way, where sometimes he’ll take them off the hop, and other times, he’ll take a one-two step that results in a lean to the left. But he also has touch. He made nearly 76 percent of his free throws and hit a number of floaters this season.
The jumper is going to take time, but if it ever comes along at a reasonable level, he’s probably going to be a star. He’s an elite defender, an awesome processor of basketball and a real passer and playmaker with the frame and strength to finish around the rim. He has better ball skills and a better shooting base than someone like Isaac Okoro, who went in the top five of the 2020 NBA Draft. He was also a more impactful defender than even Okoro was, and that’s saying a lot.
When I talk to teams, I get answers all over the map on Castle. Some executives and scouts will tell me he’s in the top five, as I have him listed. Others will say second half of the lottery. Even more, I’ll hear outside of the lottery in the 15-20 range by the occasional scout who really doesn’t buy the shot. Right now, I think I’d say his range is No. 3 to No. 13 or so, but I’m surprised Castle seems to have become this polarizing. Everyone on the team side asks for young players who impact winning and have upside. It’s hard to do more than what Castle did this season to prove that.
Donovan Clingan, 7-2 center, Connecticut, No. 5
Clingan helped himself as much as any player in the NCAA Tournament, leading Connecticut to a national title. His elite interior defense was arguably the most important part of the equation for the Huskies, which can be seen by Connecticut’s defensive improvement throughout the season.
From the start of the season until Jan. 31, UConn had the 23rd-best defense in the country, per Bart Torvik’s statistical database. That coincides with Clingan’s early-season foot injury that held him out of practice, as well as a minor injury against Seton Hall on Dec. 20 that held him out of competition for nearly a month. He played three games in late January to get rolling again, and once the calendar turned to February, UConn turned on the jets defensively. From that point forward, the Huskies had the No. 2 defense in the country, which was led by Clingan shutting down the interior.
What was the difference? Early in the season, Clingan wasn’t in pristine shape as he worked his way back from the original injury. He was heavy, and you could see it in his movement. He wasn’t quite as quick backpedaling in drop coverage and wasn’t able to play as many minutes, averaging only 20 per game. But as he got back into condition, you could see his movement skills improve. He was the player we saw in the NCAA Tournament last season, where he was mobile and active on defense. He played 25 minutes per game and averaged 13.7 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. From the Big East tournament final to the national championship, he averaged 16.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and three blocks per game.
What you’re getting in Clingan is an elite drop-coverage big who profiles as an elite rim protector by NBA standards. I feel confident he’ll be a starting center in the NBA. His mobility at his size is too good, and he’s stronger with a more physical frame than Walker Kessler. I also think he’s a better rebounder than Kessler due to that ability to anchor on the interior.
However, the biggest difference between the two comes as a passer. Clingan is a legitimate passer with awesome vision for a center. He’s comfortable running dribble-handoff actions at the top of the key but can also reject them if they’re getting overplayed and just try to make a pass himself. He averaged nearly two assists per game over his final 18 games and had a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
In this draft, if you’re telling me I’m getting an elite defensive big who finishes inside and passes well, I’m taking him in the top 10.
Jared McCain, 6-3 guard, Duke, N0. 12
McCain has been rising up my board for about two months now to the point where he’s been in the lottery for a few weeks. In his last 20 games, McCain averaged 16 points, six rebounds and two assists while shooting 48 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 90 percent from the line. That is absurd for a freshman against ACC-level competition, and it was over a prolonged period after a slow start to the season. McCain was among the best high-volume, high-efficiency scorers in college basketball over the back half of the season. The fact that he’s not being talked about more as a lottery pick is a bit strange given that context.
In the NCAA Tournament, McCain finally seemed to put himself a bit more on the map. He dropped 30 points in a blowout win over James Madison, where he drilled eight 3s. Against NC State in Duke’s Elite Eight loss, McCain was the only guy who really seemed to keep Duke afloat on offense. He dropped 32 points and had six rebounds while drilling five 3s. More importantly, though, McCain showed some driving and slashing feel out of screens and dribble handoffs. He attacked mismatches when they came available and worked well against D.J. Burns playing off him in drop coverage. He ended up getting to the line 11 times and looked like a well-rounded scorer as opposed to just a 3-point marksman who makes a killing in transition — a thing that is undeniably true about his skill set but also limits who he is.
I think McCain has more juice than simply being a floor spacer. The concerns with McCain are obvious. He’s undersized for the role at 6-foot-3 and not a terrific athlete in terms of explosiveness. Largely, McCain gets loose as an off-ball scorer and when he gets the ball on the move ahead of time to help him get downhill. There isn’t much shake in terms of change-of-direction with him.
McCain is an elite shooter from 3 who can handle the ball and finish around the paint at a high level. He drilled 19 3s from 25 feet and beyond this year at a 40.4 percent clip. He hit 61 percent of his half-court attempts at the rim because he’s smart and picking his spots, and he can play through contact better than he gets credit for. On top of that, sources across the NBA and the college space rave about his work ethic, and he is tireless in the weight room and in the gym.
I’m a believer in McCain. He was only right below the Kentucky guys in terms of production as a freshman in college hoops this season.
Zach Edey, 7-4 center, Purdue, No. 21
It might look strange to have the guy who dropped 37 points and 10 rebounds in the national title game lower than his counterpart, but I thought Clingan actually really made Edey work for his buckets when he was in the game.
Edey got off to an awesome start, scoring an early 16 points in the first 12 minutes. But from that point forward, I’d argue Clingan completely shut off his water. From the eight-minute mark of the first half all the way to the eight-minute mark of the second half, Edey only had six points. He had 22 points on 18 shots in the first 32 minutes of the game, which are really the ones where the result was in question. That eight-minute mark is when UConn went up by 17 and essentially ended the game.
Edey went 6-of-7 down the stretch and had 15 points in the final eight minutes, but a large portion of those shots were defended by Alex Karaban, as Connecticut went small late. Part of the reason Connecticut went small was because Edey forced Clingan and backup center Samson Johnson into foul trouble, but it didn’t really result in the game staying close. So while, 37 points and 10 rebounds is incredible, I think that stat line overstated Edey’s impact on the game a bit, and I felt like Clingan actually got the better of him when the result was in question.
Edey also had a few moments on defense that popped for scouts and flagged limitations. Particularly, early in the second half, Johnson caught him on a pair of pick-and-roll dives to the rim that gave evaluators pause. Johnson is the kind of athletic, springy big man whom Edey will be asked to defend in the NBA. He had no issue simply beating Edey to the spot to open up himself for a lob.
That said, I have a strong grade on Edey and think he’s a solidified first-round pick. He is so strong and physical that I think he’ll be able to establish position on nearly anyone in the NBA. He was the best screener in the country this season and made underrated strides in drop coverage defensively. Edey also is in condition and had no problem running out 40-minute games, a remarkable feat for a player his size. I buy him being more than just the Boban Marjanović type to which he’s often compared.
A.J. Johnson, 6-7 wing, Illawarra Hawks, No. 29
I got to see Johnson work out in Santa Barbara, Calif., recently, and it was every bit as impressive as one could have hoped.
We’ll talk about some of the limitations I saw in a second, but Johnson’s ability to get to spots as a scorer in a fluid, on-balance manner is real. His jumper is mechanically sound both off the catch and bounce. He worked on getting into the shot from different footwork from both sides of the court, and while the jumper looked a bit more well-developed in terms of rhythm from the left side — this isn’t uncommon for young, right-handed players, as it’s a bit easier to get into shots off the hop, particularly on stepbacks, from the left side — everything looks clean and pure enough to where Johnson should be a very high-level shooter down the road.
Johnson came into his time at Illawarra in the ballpark of 6-5 to 6-6. Seeing him stand next to Ron Holland, who is around 6-7 1/2 in shoes, was an eye-opener, as he looked about as tall as Holland. I asked Johnson after his workout if he’d grown during his time in Australia, and he said yes, and multiple sources both in the United States and around the NBL confirmed Johnson’s account that he has grown a bit since the last time many American audiences saw him in high school. Johnson’s measurements will likely be among the more coveted by NBA personnel; if he’s grown into that 6-7 range as it seems he has, it opens up many more avenues for his success. Instead of being more of a guard, it can realistically slide Johnson down to the wing at some point in his career, especially given his wingspan that appears to be something in the ballpark of 6-11.
Part of the downside of workouts like this is that you don’t see players deal with contact. Right now, that’s Johnson’s biggest weakness. Still quite skinny with a frame that is likely under 180 pounds even with the work he put in this season, Johnson couldn’t deal well with the physical NBL on a night-to-night basis. He couldn’t consistently get to his spots because, once his momentum got stopped, he didn’t quite have the contact balance to be able to adjust. But Johnson’s shoulders are quite wide and make you believe his frame has room for a lot more growth. He just looks like a person who is still quite young and growing into his body.
The name that seemed most applicable when watching Johnson was the Trail Blazers’ Anfernee Simons, who entered the draft after a post-graduate year at IMG as opposed to heading to college despite the fact that his frame was not ready for the NBA. Simons took over a year to get on the court consistently as he filled out his 180-pound frame. But he played in his second season, and by the start of his fourth season, he was a ready-made NBA scoring guard. Simons is a bit more explosive than Johnson, but Johnson is bigger and might have a bit more potential on the defensive end.
Johnson is going to take time. But seeing him in-person multiple times, as well as in that pre-draft workout, it’s clear the frame was his biggest impediment to success this season. Once his frame catches up to his gifts, Johnson has all the tools he needs to be this draft’s interesting high-upside swing in the late first or early second round.
Ulrich Chomche, 6-10 center, NBA Africa Academy, No. 88
Chomche was one of the major attractions for scouts this year at Nike Hoop Summit, as he was the lone draft-eligible player in attendance.
He measured at 6-11 1/2 in shoes, which means he’ll come in right around 6-10 without. He had a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-1 1/2 standing reach. Those were the measurement confirmations NBA teams were interested in getting. Having said that, Chomche was not particularly impressive during practices and did not follow it up with a strong performance in the game. The consensus from talking to scouts was that Chomche should certainly look to attend college next season to work on his craft.
It’s easy to see why there was some excitement entering the event. Chomche runs the floor incredibly well, getting up and down with ease. He also has easy lift and gets off the ground quickly, making him a potential lob threat in NBA spacing.
The intersection of size and athleticism is real, but he’s far too raw at this stage. I don’t think I would even feel great about him opening next season as a starting big at a high-major college. Chomche is still really learning and developing his feel for the game. He often looked a bit lost on defense in ball-screen coverages and in communicating with his teammates. He also chased nearly everything around the rim, leading to offensive rebounds or fouls.
Chomche has been billed as a potential shooter from distance, but I don’t see it translating any time soon. He has a hitchy shot that has a long way to go, even if there is some latent touch. He needs developmental reps right now, and college would be the best option for him at this stage.
Other notes
• Two freshmen whom NBA teams seemed to be quite high on in my conversations: Johnny Furphy out of Kansas and Bub Carrington out of Pittsburgh. Furphy is ranked No. 17 above, and Carrington is No. 22. The consensus on Furphy was that he would likely be a riser through the pre-draft process due to his size, athleticism and work ethic, with potential to hear his name called in the late lottery. Carrington had an up-and-down season, but he was a player who really impressed scouts at the ACC tournament. He averaged 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists in his final six games of the season. His range is a bit more spotty than Furphy’s, but somewhere starting outside of the lottery and extending down to No. 35 or so seemed to be the consensus.
• Providence guard Devin Carter also has some real momentum. A number of teams in that No. 15 to No. 23 range could use an immediate contributor, and that’s exactly what Carter profiles as. He’s an elite defender at the guard position and as competitive a player as you’ll find in the class. He drastically improved as a 3-point shooter this season, hitting nearly 38 percent from 3 on over seven attempts per game. The shot looks funky, but it goes in. I think he’ll be able to play from day one in the NBA, and it’s hard to find guys like that in this class. If Carter found his way into the lottery, that wouldn’t stun me. A number of team evaluators are quite high on him.
• A player on whom I’ve been quite high throughout the season is Tristan da Silva out of Colorado, and it feels like teams are also interested. He had a spectacular NCAA Tournament run, where he had 20 points against Boise State, 17 points and five assists against Florida and 17 points with three assists against Marquette. On the season, he averaged 16 points, five rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 49.3 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from 3 and 83.5 percent from the line. Those percentages are essentially directly in-line with his career percentages of 49.3 from the field, 38.6 from 3 and 78.6 from the line over four years. I’m probably a touch higher than league consensus by placing him at No. 19, but I do think he hears his name called in the first round.
萨姆-维切尼评价今年选秀：今年的行情比较混乱，没有人能够稳定状元，甚至他榜单上的前十都有机会。有些人喜欢多诺万-克林根而不是萨尔，因为他定位清晰且防守影响力大；但其他人更加欣赏萨尔的运动能力和投篮潜力。一些球探喜欢里萨谢的射手潜力和犀利的团队防守表现，有望成为攻防一体的球员。而其他人则担心他的运动能力不占优，因此更喜欢像马塔斯-布泽利斯这样的球员，尽管布泽利斯的投篮和无球防守表现备受质疑。而即使效力于同一支球队，一些球探比起迪林厄姆的爆发力和速度来说更喜欢里德-谢泼德的篮球智商。
萨姆-维切尼评价卡斯尔：精英级别的防守人，有成为POA球员的潜力。可以防守多个位置，甚至大个子侧翼，在锦标赛上先后锁死了小特伦斯香农，布兰登-史密斯，让马克-希尔斯在他面前难堪。无球端空间意识很好，传球很棒，可以空中作业；投篮姿势需要大修，特别是持球投，脚步姿势东倒西歪的；但是他的手感不错，罚球和小抛投过得去。有希望成为更好的奥克洛。评价两极分化，有些人认为他值得前五，有些人认为15-20，萨姆把他范围排到了3-13.
多诺万-克林根，防守很好，作为大吨位内线虽然只打20分但是20分钟都很积极。伤愈后表现得更加灵巧。比凯斯勒更加强壮，篮板更好，同时传球和手递手表现更好。
贾里德-麦凯恩属于低开高走，投射表现非常顶，算得上肯塔基双枪之后的后场第一人，谢坡德和迪林选不到的代餐。他的投射组合技非常好，是杜克唯一能信赖的持球手。在挡拆和手递手之后表现极佳，打错位很犀利，同时敢于在篮下对抗终结。他还是个球场老鼠，训练刻苦，职业态度好；但动态静态都很糟糕，地板射手.只看投篮，他没进乐透有些奇怪。
周志豪在总决赛数据很好，但下半场被克林根完全防死导致球队被轻松拉开，只打好了前12分钟，砍下16分；之后从上半场的8分钟到下半场的8分钟，Edey只得到6分。合计18投得到22分，这个表现差强人意。靠最后8分钟，康大摆小阵容，他对白人前锋卡拉班刷到了37分。面对约翰逊的两次漏空接是球探最不满的，暴露他的防守局限性。当然萨姆认为他值得一个首轮，在掩护，要位和防守端表现不错，同时还有满槽的体力可以打满全场，这很少见。
萨姆说他最近在加州圣塔克拉拉看到了AJ-约翰逊训练，认为他在投篮训练时，表现的很好；同时，他现在站在罗恩-霍兰身边等高，可能长到了2米；他身体对抗还是很菜，身材很瘦弱。他现在看起来像大一号的安芬尼-西蒙斯（开拓者队后卫），大骨架有增肌空间。虽然NBL打得一塌糊涂但是变得更有梦想了。大约是首轮末次轮初的行情，长期投资，值得一赌。
非洲小将于尔里奇-肖姆谢岁数很小，还打了U19，但是大部分球探劝他赶紧找个学上。身高6-11.5，臂展7-4，静态诱人但是训练赛打得很平庸。他运动能力很棒，有成为扣篮好手的潜力，投射待开发；但他的场上太稚嫩粗糙，和队友的防守交流很差，很迷茫；在油漆区表现很急躁，犯规大王也是积极的二次篮板手
其他：
有两队的球探很看好两个大一生：堪萨斯的约翰尼-弗菲和匹兹堡的卡林顿。对于弗菲共识是，身材出色、运动能力不错且职业道德很好，很可能在选秀前行情上升，甚至是乐透末。卡灵顿本赛季的表现起伏不定，但在ACC锦标赛给人留下深刻的印象。在本赛季的最后六场比赛中，他场均得到18.8分，5.2个篮板和3.8次助攻。他的行情从乐透到35位左右。
普罗维登斯后卫德文-卡特的行情在15号到23号之间，是很多球队需要的即战力。他是个顶尖的后场防守人，也是本届最具竞争力的球员。本赛季，他三分有了巨大的进步，场均出手超过7次，三分命中率接近38%。姿势古怪但能进。许多球队的评估人员球探对他的评价很高，有机会加入乐透争夺战。
科罗拉多的特里斯坦-达席尔瓦在NCAA锦标赛中表现出色。本赛季，他场均可以得到16分，5篮板和2.4次助攻，投篮命中率为49.3%，三分命中率为39.5%，罚球率为83.5%。维切尼很看好他，认为他值得首轮。
原文：
The NCAA season is over, and pre-draft workout season has begun, which means it’s time to update the 2024 NBA Draft Big Board.
To be frank, I’ve been a bit gun-shy this year on releasing my board. Not because I’m worried about my opinions or reaction, but rather because trying to parse through this class has been dreadfully difficult at the top. As I’ve written throughout the year, I do not have a Tier One or Tier Two player in this class. I’m not even sure how many Tier Three players I will have by the end of the process.
At this juncture, I’m open to all possibilities about what the top of this class looks like on draft night. I would say, in some capacity, all of the players ranked in my top 10 have a non-zero chance to go No. 1 overall if things break right in terms of the draft lottery and they have a strong pre-draft process. There are players there who have a much better chance to go No. 1 than others, to be sure, but NBA teams are all over the map in this class. It does not have a sure-fire guy, so teams are doing their due diligence across the spectrum. I cannot remember a class in which the lottery will have such a significant impact on how the top will be selected.
Some like the positional certainty and defensive acumen Donovan Clingan will bring compared to Alex Sarr. Others like Sarr’s upside athletically and potential to shoot the ball. Some evaluators like Zaccharie Risacher’s two-way game as a shooter and sharp team defender. Others worry about his athletic upside and prefer a player like Matas Buzelis more, even though the evaluators who like the relative certainty regarding Risacher question Buzelis as a shooter and on-ball defender. Even playing for the same team, some high-ranking evaluators prefer Reed Sheppard’s basketball IQ to Rob Dillingham’s explosive handle and quickness. We’ll talk about Stephon Castle in-depth, but he’s a great example of there being no consensus on prospects this year.
Because there’s no sure-fire All-Star, decision-makers have many questions to ponder: What do you value in prospects? What skill sets are most important to you? What translates best in your mind? Or in many cases, what are the skill deficiencies players in this class have that are most fixable to you?
By the law of averages, multiple players will be All-Stars from this draft, even with it being a below-average one, and it’ll be because they improved something in their game substantially. Even the 2013 NBA Draft, a class that was seen as bad at the time and maintains that ignominy within front offices, had three players make the All-Star Game, with one of them becoming arguably the best player in the world for a time in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Having said that, the track record on that draft did prove to be, by and large, bad. Only seven of the lottery picks went on to be above-average rotation players, with only one All-Star in the group. After Rudy Gobert was picked at No. 27, only one player — Allen Crabbe — went on to become even an average rotation player for multiple years.
Stephon Castle, 6-6 wing, Connecticut, No. 3
I completely understand the shooting concerns with Castle; they’re real. But where I’m at in this class is simple: It’s hard to find guys who have proven they can be a part of winning basketball. And throughout the course of Big East play as well as the NCAA Tournament, Castle showcased that better than any other guy in this class.
I’m not sure what more evaluators want him to do. Throughout the season, Castle consistently took on the toughest assignment on the perimeter and wing defensively for Connecticut, a top-five defense in the country, and found success. Need someone to chase potential first-rounder Baylor Scheierman around screens? Castle can do it. Need someone to defend at the point of attack? Castle can do that. What about a big wing creator? Castle will do that, too, and shut off his water, just like he did in the Elite Eight against Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr.
Shannon came into that game averaging 27.2 points over his prior 15 games. Castle held him to eight points on 2-of-12 shooting. In the Final Four, he took on the Mark Sears assignment at point guard. Sears scored 24 but only nine of those points came on Castle, and four of those nine came on heavily contested attempts that Sears maneuvered around or shot over the top of to make. He made life miserable for one of the best guards in the country this season and made him work for every bucket. Against Purdue in the title game, Castle took long swaths of time on Braden Smith, who only scored two points when being guarded by Castle.
If that’s all he did, he’d be worth a first-round pick. But Castle also was quite good on offense. He averaged 12.5 points, nearly six rebounds and three assists while posting a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He had 21 points in the Final Four against Alabama and was the team’s best offensive player, then followed it up with 15 against Purdue. I thought he had a real case as Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four, especially when accounting for the defensive job he did on Sears and Smith.
Castle has tremendous spatial awareness as an off-ball player, plus the ability to cover ground with long strides as an on-ball driver. He passes really well, and in high school, he showcased the ability to make whatever read you want from him out of ball screens. He’s not a lead guard, but he doesn’t have to be. At 6-foot-6 with reasonable length and a 215-pound frame, Castle has all the measurements you’re looking for out of a secondary ballhandler on the wing.
As I mentioned above, the jumper is a concern. Castle made just 26.7 percent of his 3s this season and has a bit of a hitch at the top of his mechanics. His footwork getting into shots is quite differentiated in a bad way, where sometimes he’ll take them off the hop, and other times, he’ll take a one-two step that results in a lean to the left. But he also has touch. He made nearly 76 percent of his free throws and hit a number of floaters this season.
The jumper is going to take time, but if it ever comes along at a reasonable level, he’s probably going to be a star. He’s an elite defender, an awesome processor of basketball and a real passer and playmaker with the frame and strength to finish around the rim. He has better ball skills and a better shooting base than someone like Isaac Okoro, who went in the top five of the 2020 NBA Draft. He was also a more impactful defender than even Okoro was, and that’s saying a lot.
When I talk to teams, I get answers all over the map on Castle. Some executives and scouts will tell me he’s in the top five, as I have him listed. Others will say second half of the lottery. Even more, I’ll hear outside of the lottery in the 15-20 range by the occasional scout who really doesn’t buy the shot. Right now, I think I’d say his range is No. 3 to No. 13 or so, but I’m surprised Castle seems to have become this polarizing. Everyone on the team side asks for young players who impact winning and have upside. It’s hard to do more than what Castle did this season to prove that.
Donovan Clingan, 7-2 center, Connecticut, No. 5
Clingan helped himself as much as any player in the NCAA Tournament, leading Connecticut to a national title. His elite interior defense was arguably the most important part of the equation for the Huskies, which can be seen by Connecticut’s defensive improvement throughout the season.
From the start of the season until Jan. 31, UConn had the 23rd-best defense in the country, per Bart Torvik’s statistical database. That coincides with Clingan’s early-season foot injury that held him out of practice, as well as a minor injury against Seton Hall on Dec. 20 that held him out of competition for nearly a month. He played three games in late January to get rolling again, and once the calendar turned to February, UConn turned on the jets defensively. From that point forward, the Huskies had the No. 2 defense in the country, which was led by Clingan shutting down the interior.
What was the difference? Early in the season, Clingan wasn’t in pristine shape as he worked his way back from the original injury. He was heavy, and you could see it in his movement. He wasn’t quite as quick backpedaling in drop coverage and wasn’t able to play as many minutes, averaging only 20 per game. But as he got back into condition, you could see his movement skills improve. He was the player we saw in the NCAA Tournament last season, where he was mobile and active on defense. He played 25 minutes per game and averaged 13.7 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. From the Big East tournament final to the national championship, he averaged 16.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and three blocks per game.
What you’re getting in Clingan is an elite drop-coverage big who profiles as an elite rim protector by NBA standards. I feel confident he’ll be a starting center in the NBA. His mobility at his size is too good, and he’s stronger with a more physical frame than Walker Kessler. I also think he’s a better rebounder than Kessler due to that ability to anchor on the interior.
However, the biggest difference between the two comes as a passer. Clingan is a legitimate passer with awesome vision for a center. He’s comfortable running dribble-handoff actions at the top of the key but can also reject them if they’re getting overplayed and just try to make a pass himself. He averaged nearly two assists per game over his final 18 games and had a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
In this draft, if you’re telling me I’m getting an elite defensive big who finishes inside and passes well, I’m taking him in the top 10.
Jared McCain, 6-3 guard, Duke, N0. 12
McCain has been rising up my board for about two months now to the point where he’s been in the lottery for a few weeks. In his last 20 games, McCain averaged 16 points, six rebounds and two assists while shooting 48 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 90 percent from the line. That is absurd for a freshman against ACC-level competition, and it was over a prolonged period after a slow start to the season. McCain was among the best high-volume, high-efficiency scorers in college basketball over the back half of the season. The fact that he’s not being talked about more as a lottery pick is a bit strange given that context.
In the NCAA Tournament, McCain finally seemed to put himself a bit more on the map. He dropped 30 points in a blowout win over James Madison, where he drilled eight 3s. Against NC State in Duke’s Elite Eight loss, McCain was the only guy who really seemed to keep Duke afloat on offense. He dropped 32 points and had six rebounds while drilling five 3s. More importantly, though, McCain showed some driving and slashing feel out of screens and dribble handoffs. He attacked mismatches when they came available and worked well against D.J. Burns playing off him in drop coverage. He ended up getting to the line 11 times and looked like a well-rounded scorer as opposed to just a 3-point marksman who makes a killing in transition — a thing that is undeniably true about his skill set but also limits who he is.
I think McCain has more juice than simply being a floor spacer. The concerns with McCain are obvious. He’s undersized for the role at 6-foot-3 and not a terrific athlete in terms of explosiveness. Largely, McCain gets loose as an off-ball scorer and when he gets the ball on the move ahead of time to help him get downhill. There isn’t much shake in terms of change-of-direction with him.
McCain is an elite shooter from 3 who can handle the ball and finish around the paint at a high level. He drilled 19 3s from 25 feet and beyond this year at a 40.4 percent clip. He hit 61 percent of his half-court attempts at the rim because he’s smart and picking his spots, and he can play through contact better than he gets credit for. On top of that, sources across the NBA and the college space rave about his work ethic, and he is tireless in the weight room and in the gym.
I’m a believer in McCain. He was only right below the Kentucky guys in terms of production as a freshman in college hoops this season.
Zach Edey, 7-4 center, Purdue, No. 21
It might look strange to have the guy who dropped 37 points and 10 rebounds in the national title game lower than his counterpart, but I thought Clingan actually really made Edey work for his buckets when he was in the game.
Edey got off to an awesome start, scoring an early 16 points in the first 12 minutes. But from that point forward, I’d argue Clingan completely shut off his water. From the eight-minute mark of the first half all the way to the eight-minute mark of the second half, Edey only had six points. He had 22 points on 18 shots in the first 32 minutes of the game, which are really the ones where the result was in question. That eight-minute mark is when UConn went up by 17 and essentially ended the game.
Edey went 6-of-7 down the stretch and had 15 points in the final eight minutes, but a large portion of those shots were defended by Alex Karaban, as Connecticut went small late. Part of the reason Connecticut went small was because Edey forced Clingan and backup center Samson Johnson into foul trouble, but it didn’t really result in the game staying close. So while, 37 points and 10 rebounds is incredible, I think that stat line overstated Edey’s impact on the game a bit, and I felt like Clingan actually got the better of him when the result was in question.
Edey also had a few moments on defense that popped for scouts and flagged limitations. Particularly, early in the second half, Johnson caught him on a pair of pick-and-roll dives to the rim that gave evaluators pause. Johnson is the kind of athletic, springy big man whom Edey will be asked to defend in the NBA. He had no issue simply beating Edey to the spot to open up himself for a lob.
That said, I have a strong grade on Edey and think he’s a solidified first-round pick. He is so strong and physical that I think he’ll be able to establish position on nearly anyone in the NBA. He was the best screener in the country this season and made underrated strides in drop coverage defensively. Edey also is in condition and had no problem running out 40-minute games, a remarkable feat for a player his size. I buy him being more than just the Boban Marjanović type to which he’s often compared.
A.J. Johnson, 6-7 wing, Illawarra Hawks, No. 29
I got to see Johnson work out in Santa Barbara, Calif., recently, and it was every bit as impressive as one could have hoped.
We’ll talk about some of the limitations I saw in a second, but Johnson’s ability to get to spots as a scorer in a fluid, on-balance manner is real. His jumper is mechanically sound both off the catch and bounce. He worked on getting into the shot from different footwork from both sides of the court, and while the jumper looked a bit more well-developed in terms of rhythm from the left side — this isn’t uncommon for young, right-handed players, as it’s a bit easier to get into shots off the hop, particularly on stepbacks, from the left side — everything looks clean and pure enough to where Johnson should be a very high-level shooter down the road.
Johnson came into his time at Illawarra in the ballpark of 6-5 to 6-6. Seeing him stand next to Ron Holland, who is around 6-7 1/2 in shoes, was an eye-opener, as he looked about as tall as Holland. I asked Johnson after his workout if he’d grown during his time in Australia, and he said yes, and multiple sources both in the United States and around the NBL confirmed Johnson’s account that he has grown a bit since the last time many American audiences saw him in high school. Johnson’s measurements will likely be among the more coveted by NBA personnel; if he’s grown into that 6-7 range as it seems he has, it opens up many more avenues for his success. Instead of being more of a guard, it can realistically slide Johnson down to the wing at some point in his career, especially given his wingspan that appears to be something in the ballpark of 6-11.
Part of the downside of workouts like this is that you don’t see players deal with contact. Right now, that’s Johnson’s biggest weakness. Still quite skinny with a frame that is likely under 180 pounds even with the work he put in this season, Johnson couldn’t deal well with the physical NBL on a night-to-night basis. He couldn’t consistently get to his spots because, once his momentum got stopped, he didn’t quite have the contact balance to be able to adjust. But Johnson’s shoulders are quite wide and make you believe his frame has room for a lot more growth. He just looks like a person who is still quite young and growing into his body.
The name that seemed most applicable when watching Johnson was the Trail Blazers’ Anfernee Simons, who entered the draft after a post-graduate year at IMG as opposed to heading to college despite the fact that his frame was not ready for the NBA. Simons took over a year to get on the court consistently as he filled out his 180-pound frame. But he played in his second season, and by the start of his fourth season, he was a ready-made NBA scoring guard. Simons is a bit more explosive than Johnson, but Johnson is bigger and might have a bit more potential on the defensive end.
Johnson is going to take time. But seeing him in-person multiple times, as well as in that pre-draft workout, it’s clear the frame was his biggest impediment to success this season. Once his frame catches up to his gifts, Johnson has all the tools he needs to be this draft’s interesting high-upside swing in the late first or early second round.
Ulrich Chomche, 6-10 center, NBA Africa Academy, No. 88
Chomche was one of the major attractions for scouts this year at Nike Hoop Summit, as he was the lone draft-eligible player in attendance.
He measured at 6-11 1/2 in shoes, which means he’ll come in right around 6-10 without. He had a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-1 1/2 standing reach. Those were the measurement confirmations NBA teams were interested in getting. Having said that, Chomche was not particularly impressive during practices and did not follow it up with a strong performance in the game. The consensus from talking to scouts was that Chomche should certainly look to attend college next season to work on his craft.
It’s easy to see why there was some excitement entering the event. Chomche runs the floor incredibly well, getting up and down with ease. He also has easy lift and gets off the ground quickly, making him a potential lob threat in NBA spacing.
The intersection of size and athleticism is real, but he’s far too raw at this stage. I don’t think I would even feel great about him opening next season as a starting big at a high-major college. Chomche is still really learning and developing his feel for the game. He often looked a bit lost on defense in ball-screen coverages and in communicating with his teammates. He also chased nearly everything around the rim, leading to offensive rebounds or fouls.
Chomche has been billed as a potential shooter from distance, but I don’t see it translating any time soon. He has a hitchy shot that has a long way to go, even if there is some latent touch. He needs developmental reps right now, and college would be the best option for him at this stage.
Other notes
• Two freshmen whom NBA teams seemed to be quite high on in my conversations: Johnny Furphy out of Kansas and Bub Carrington out of Pittsburgh. Furphy is ranked No. 17 above, and Carrington is No. 22. The consensus on Furphy was that he would likely be a riser through the pre-draft process due to his size, athleticism and work ethic, with potential to hear his name called in the late lottery. Carrington had an up-and-down season, but he was a player who really impressed scouts at the ACC tournament. He averaged 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists in his final six games of the season. His range is a bit more spotty than Furphy’s, but somewhere starting outside of the lottery and extending down to No. 35 or so seemed to be the consensus.
• Providence guard Devin Carter also has some real momentum. A number of teams in that No. 15 to No. 23 range could use an immediate contributor, and that’s exactly what Carter profiles as. He’s an elite defender at the guard position and as competitive a player as you’ll find in the class. He drastically improved as a 3-point shooter this season, hitting nearly 38 percent from 3 on over seven attempts per game. The shot looks funky, but it goes in. I think he’ll be able to play from day one in the NBA, and it’s hard to find guys like that in this class. If Carter found his way into the lottery, that wouldn’t stun me. A number of team evaluators are quite high on him.
• A player on whom I’ve been quite high throughout the season is Tristan da Silva out of Colorado, and it feels like teams are also interested. He had a spectacular NCAA Tournament run, where he had 20 points against Boise State, 17 points and five assists against Florida and 17 points with three assists against Marquette. On the season, he averaged 16 points, five rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 49.3 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from 3 and 83.5 percent from the line. Those percentages are essentially directly in-line with his career percentages of 49.3 from the field, 38.6 from 3 and 78.6 from the line over four years. I’m probably a touch higher than league consensus by placing him at No. 19, but I do think he hears his name called in the first round.
