Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool? We asked 11 writers to pick their Premier League winner
By Oliver Kay, Stuart Jamesand more
Seven games remaining, three teams, and one point separating them.
Liverpoolwent into the latest round of fixtures top of the Premier League, but their chaotic draw at Manchester Unitedon Sunday meant they ended the weekend in second place, level on points with leaders Arsenaland only one point ahead of reigning champions Manchester City.
There have been tight title races in recent years, but a three-horse race at this late stage is a rarity.
Manchester City have the experience, Arsenal have the lead and destiny in their hands, while Liverpool are a team driven by a determination to deliver a title for manager Jurgen Klopp in his final season.
So who will come out on top? We asked 11 of our writers to predict a winner and explain their thinking.
Jay Harris:This time last year, Arsenal’stitle challenge unravelled in a chaotic manner, but now they look far more controlled and assured. Mikel Arteta’s side are blowing teams away and making a mockery of suggestions from only a matter of months ago that they needed a new striker, while in Gabriel and William Saliba, they possess the best centre-back partnership in the division.
A lack of options from the bench damaged their title aspirations last season, but now players like Jorginhoand Emile Smith Roweare having an impact. If they can emerge unscathed from tricky fixtures away to Tottenham Hotspurand Manchester United, they have a great chance of winning the league for the first time in 20 years.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 0
Elias Burke:Having been there and done it before, I believe Manchester Cityare best placed to win the league with seven games remaining.
There’s an inevitability about Pep Guardiola’s City in the Premier League. If they are in with a shot come spring, they invariably win. Guardiola has mastered the English football calendar so his side can be at their best when it matters most.
Arsenal and Liverpool have proven formidable and remain a point ahead, but I expect City to claw back the deficit given their slightly kinder league schedule. And if we’ve learned anything about City in recent years, it’s to expect perfection in the season’s latter stages.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 1
Oliver Kay:I’ve felt Manchester Citywould be the most likely winners all season and I stand by that, but it’s so incredibly tight. I felt Liverpool’s chances were being slightly overestimated by the bookmakers and the various data models before Sunday’s setback at Old Trafford and I feel similar of City now; I agree City are favourites, but I feel the Opta “supercomputer” might be underestimating Arsenal if it’s only giving them a 29 per cent chance.
From here, it looks like the perfect three-horse race, with City at a very slight handicap. They don’t look as infallible as they have been in previous run-ins, but they look like the team least likely to stumble and most likely to win all seven. They’ve got the most trophy-winning know-how and, on paper, the gentlest run-in of the three. So, yes, City favourites. But not odds-on favourites by any means.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 2
Jack Lang:The table does not lie: these three teams are all incredible — and incredibly evenly matched. It is difficult to imagine any of them grinding to a halt or succumbing to pressure between now and the end of the campaign. The title race will be won by millimetres rather than furlongs.
With so little between the sides, the fixture list could well be critical. It is not impossible that all three challengers win their remaining seven games, but of the schedules, Manchester City’s definitely looks the least intimidating. That, in my book, makes them the most likely champions, albeit by a paper-thin margin.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 3
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James Pearce, The Athletic’sLiverpool correspondent:Liverpool’s title hopes were dented at Old Trafford on Sunday, but I’m convinced there will be more twists to come.
Trailing Arsenal on goal difference with seven games to go, Jurgen Klopp’s side are still in a fantastic position. The imminent return to fitness of Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnoldand Alisson will provide them with a much-needed boost.
One factor that’s gone under the radar somewhat is the potential impact of European commitments on the title race.
Arsenal and Manchester City certainly have more challenging assignments as they face Bayern Munich and Real Madridrespectively in the last eight of the Champions League, while Liverpool take on Atalantain the Europa League.
Then there’s the prospect of Arsenal and City facing each other in the semis — two energy-sapping contests which could affect their domestic form.
I can’t see Arsenal winning all three away games at Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tottenham and Manchester United.
Liverpool’s trickiest remaining fixtures are Aston Villaaway and Spurs at home. City have the kinder run-in, but I can see them slipping up away to Spurs.
It appears destined to go down to the final day. I can see Liverpooljust edging it.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
Art de Roche, The Athletic’sArsenal writer:Of the three teams in the title race, Arsenalhave been the most dominant in their games since the start of the year. They are still yet to trail in a game in 2024 and have been more comfortable in matches than both Manchester City and Liverpool as a result.
Last month, Martin Odegaardcalled the side “more mature” than last year. The manner of their 10 wins and a draw since returning from the winter break is a representation of that. The next seven games will show just how mature they have become, with experience a big factor in Manchester City and Liverpool’s favour.
How assured and consistent they have been of late suggests to me they can see it through in a way they could not last year. Being so far ahead in April last year allowed them to become complacent in 2022-23, while more focus should keep them more honest this term. Also, as mentioned by Jay, Arteta is starting to make better use of his squad with players returning to fitness.
Total picks: Arsenal 2, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
Seb Stafford-Bloor:Arsenalseem to have grown up a bit since last year. They seem more in control and less dependent upon the adrenaline of being involved in a title race after so long. When a team are riding the crest of momentum, there is always a danger that any kind of adversity has a disproportionate effect.
Rather unfairly, their failure to win the title last year has been condensed into that heavy loss to Manchester City. Really, it was the three games prior that altered their trajectory and the draws with West Ham, Liverpool and Southamptonthat showed their fragility and demonstrated how volatile they could be within games.
By contrast, this season has really been characterised by stability. That comes from experience and maturity but also from understanding that this is the continuation of a cycle rather than just a one-off. There was an argument last year that Arsenal were just profiting from Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United being in various stages of transition and perhaps that bred a panicked sense of ‘win or bust’ — do it now or never at all — among the players? Maybe. Whatever the case, they are just a really good team now and they seem to know that they belong in games with City and this greatly improved Liverpool.
Another difference is that they don’t seem dependent upon any one player. Not in the same way at least. Losing Declan Riceor Odegaard or Bukayo Sakawould have an impact, but it would not be the season-ending catastrophe it might have been in previous campaigns — not with players like Jakub Kiwior, Leandro Trossardand Takehiro Tomiyasuin reserve, who can rightly be trusted to provide a tangible contribution at critical moments.
For good reason, Arsenal seem to trust themselves so much more and it is difficult to see them not winning all of their remaining games.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
John Muller:After stagnating while rivals got better, Manchester City might not be the best team in the Premier League. A supremely controlled Arsenal have better points per game, goal difference, expected goal difference and — let’s not forget the most important team strength metric — vibes going right now. As do this wildcard Liverpool side. If a new season started today, City might not be favourites to win it.
But in what’s left of the current season, Manchester Cityhave the easiest run-in. That’s enough to keep the perennial champs favourites, just like they have been all along.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 4
Simon Hughes:I have seen this film before. It is the one that reaches a crescendo on the final day. Manchester Cityare losing, handing the title to someone else. Expectation rises in that stadium. The stadium could be Anfield or the Emirates. Suddenly, City score twice and the title is theirs. This happened in 2019 and 2022 (not to mention 2012).
On each of those past two occasions, Liverpool were the club that missed out, but this season, I have a feeling three teams will approach the last game thinking they can win it. City have the slightly easier run-in. I expect them to be in pole position. There will probably be a moment when it seems as though they’ve messed up, but they end up celebrating.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 5
Sam Lee, The Athletic’sManchester City correspondent:It’s funny what title races do to people. Next time Manchester City or Arsenal drop points and Liverpool win, let’s do this again and see who sticks with their previous choices!
It’s also funny how a three-horse race impacts things: Liverpool dropped points on Sunday and suddenly City fans, and clearly those who aren’t City fans, began to feel more confident — even though Arsenal carry on looking just as strong as they have done this year. I’m including myself in all this, by the way.
So, today I’ll say Manchester Citybecause they seem to hold their nerve the best, although Guardiola seems very downbeat on his team’s ability to fight on three fronts. Let’s see what happens the next time somebody drops points.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 6
Stu James:I fancied Liverpool to win the title before Sunday, but the way two points were squandered at Old Trafford — calamitous, really — has prompted a rethink. Manchester City have the experience and, on paper, a benign run-in. Realistically, it’s hard to see City dropping points against anyone other than Tottenham.
That said, Arsenal are in a great place right now — and I don’t just mean the top of the table. Arteta’s team are playing with supreme confidence and it’s hard to see a weakness (the debate about the need for a ‘killer’ up top has gone quiet).
Yes, Spurs and Manchester United away are tricky games (the former more so), but there are players in that Arsenal team — Gabriel, Saliba and Rice in particular — who look like, and more importantly play like, they love those fixtures (how that trio performed at Anfield in December comes to mind). So, my gut instinct says Arsenalnow (bear in mind I tipped Manchester City in August and Liverpool when Luis Diazput them ahead at Old Trafford).
Either way, it’s testament to Arteta and Arsenal, and Klopp and Liverpool, that they’ve pushed City so hard.
Final score: Arsenal 4, Liverpool 1, Man City 6
https://theathletic.com/5399638/2024/04/09/premier-league-title-predictions/
Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool? We asked 11 writers to pick their Premier League winner
By Oliver Kay, Stuart Jamesand more
Seven games remaining, three teams, and one point separating them.
Liverpoolwent into the latest round of fixtures top of the Premier League, but their chaotic draw at Manchester Unitedon Sunday meant they ended the weekend in second place, level on points with leaders Arsenaland only one point ahead of reigning champions Manchester City.
There have been tight title races in recent years, but a three-horse race at this late stage is a rarity.
Manchester City have the experience, Arsenal have the lead and destiny in their hands, while Liverpool are a team driven by a determination to deliver a title for manager Jurgen Klopp in his final season.
So who will come out on top? We asked 11 of our writers to predict a winner and explain their thinking.
Jay Harris:This time last year, Arsenal’stitle challenge unravelled in a chaotic manner, but now they look far more controlled and assured. Mikel Arteta’s side are blowing teams away and making a mockery of suggestions from only a matter of months ago that they needed a new striker, while in Gabriel and William Saliba, they possess the best centre-back partnership in the division.
A lack of options from the bench damaged their title aspirations last season, but now players like Jorginhoand Emile Smith Roweare having an impact. If they can emerge unscathed from tricky fixtures away to Tottenham Hotspurand Manchester United, they have a great chance of winning the league for the first time in 20 years.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 0
Elias Burke:Having been there and done it before, I believe Manchester Cityare best placed to win the league with seven games remaining.
There’s an inevitability about Pep Guardiola’s City in the Premier League. If they are in with a shot come spring, they invariably win. Guardiola has mastered the English football calendar so his side can be at their best when it matters most.
Arsenal and Liverpool have proven formidable and remain a point ahead, but I expect City to claw back the deficit given their slightly kinder league schedule. And if we’ve learned anything about City in recent years, it’s to expect perfection in the season’s latter stages.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 1
Oliver Kay:I’ve felt Manchester Citywould be the most likely winners all season and I stand by that, but it’s so incredibly tight. I felt Liverpool’s chances were being slightly overestimated by the bookmakers and the various data models before Sunday’s setback at Old Trafford and I feel similar of City now; I agree City are favourites, but I feel the Opta “supercomputer” might be underestimating Arsenal if it’s only giving them a 29 per cent chance.
From here, it looks like the perfect three-horse race, with City at a very slight handicap. They don’t look as infallible as they have been in previous run-ins, but they look like the team least likely to stumble and most likely to win all seven. They’ve got the most trophy-winning know-how and, on paper, the gentlest run-in of the three. So, yes, City favourites. But not odds-on favourites by any means.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 2
Jack Lang:The table does not lie: these three teams are all incredible — and incredibly evenly matched. It is difficult to imagine any of them grinding to a halt or succumbing to pressure between now and the end of the campaign. The title race will be won by millimetres rather than furlongs.
With so little between the sides, the fixture list could well be critical. It is not impossible that all three challengers win their remaining seven games, but of the schedules, Manchester City’s definitely looks the least intimidating. That, in my book, makes them the most likely champions, albeit by a paper-thin margin.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0, Man City 3
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James Pearce, The Athletic’sLiverpool correspondent:Liverpool’s title hopes were dented at Old Trafford on Sunday, but I’m convinced there will be more twists to come.
Trailing Arsenal on goal difference with seven games to go, Jurgen Klopp’s side are still in a fantastic position. The imminent return to fitness of Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnoldand Alisson will provide them with a much-needed boost.
One factor that’s gone under the radar somewhat is the potential impact of European commitments on the title race.
Arsenal and Manchester City certainly have more challenging assignments as they face Bayern Munich and Real Madridrespectively in the last eight of the Champions League, while Liverpool take on Atalantain the Europa League.
Then there’s the prospect of Arsenal and City facing each other in the semis — two energy-sapping contests which could affect their domestic form.
I can’t see Arsenal winning all three away games at Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tottenham and Manchester United.
Liverpool’s trickiest remaining fixtures are Aston Villaaway and Spurs at home. City have the kinder run-in, but I can see them slipping up away to Spurs.
It appears destined to go down to the final day. I can see Liverpooljust edging it.
Total picks: Arsenal 1, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
Art de Roche, The Athletic’sArsenal writer:Of the three teams in the title race, Arsenalhave been the most dominant in their games since the start of the year. They are still yet to trail in a game in 2024 and have been more comfortable in matches than both Manchester City and Liverpool as a result.
Last month, Martin Odegaardcalled the side “more mature” than last year. The manner of their 10 wins and a draw since returning from the winter break is a representation of that. The next seven games will show just how mature they have become, with experience a big factor in Manchester City and Liverpool’s favour.
How assured and consistent they have been of late suggests to me they can see it through in a way they could not last year. Being so far ahead in April last year allowed them to become complacent in 2022-23, while more focus should keep them more honest this term. Also, as mentioned by Jay, Arteta is starting to make better use of his squad with players returning to fitness.
Total picks: Arsenal 2, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
Seb Stafford-Bloor:Arsenalseem to have grown up a bit since last year. They seem more in control and less dependent upon the adrenaline of being involved in a title race after so long. When a team are riding the crest of momentum, there is always a danger that any kind of adversity has a disproportionate effect.
Rather unfairly, their failure to win the title last year has been condensed into that heavy loss to Manchester City. Really, it was the three games prior that altered their trajectory and the draws with West Ham, Liverpool and Southamptonthat showed their fragility and demonstrated how volatile they could be within games.
By contrast, this season has really been characterised by stability. That comes from experience and maturity but also from understanding that this is the continuation of a cycle rather than just a one-off. There was an argument last year that Arsenal were just profiting from Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United being in various stages of transition and perhaps that bred a panicked sense of ‘win or bust’ — do it now or never at all — among the players? Maybe. Whatever the case, they are just a really good team now and they seem to know that they belong in games with City and this greatly improved Liverpool.
Another difference is that they don’t seem dependent upon any one player. Not in the same way at least. Losing Declan Riceor Odegaard or Bukayo Sakawould have an impact, but it would not be the season-ending catastrophe it might have been in previous campaigns — not with players like Jakub Kiwior, Leandro Trossardand Takehiro Tomiyasuin reserve, who can rightly be trusted to provide a tangible contribution at critical moments.
For good reason, Arsenal seem to trust themselves so much more and it is difficult to see them not winning all of their remaining games.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 3
John Muller:After stagnating while rivals got better, Manchester City might not be the best team in the Premier League. A supremely controlled Arsenal have better points per game, goal difference, expected goal difference and — let’s not forget the most important team strength metric — vibes going right now. As do this wildcard Liverpool side. If a new season started today, City might not be favourites to win it.
But in what’s left of the current season, Manchester Cityhave the easiest run-in. That’s enough to keep the perennial champs favourites, just like they have been all along.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 4
Simon Hughes:I have seen this film before. It is the one that reaches a crescendo on the final day. Manchester Cityare losing, handing the title to someone else. Expectation rises in that stadium. The stadium could be Anfield or the Emirates. Suddenly, City score twice and the title is theirs. This happened in 2019 and 2022 (not to mention 2012).
On each of those past two occasions, Liverpool were the club that missed out, but this season, I have a feeling three teams will approach the last game thinking they can win it. City have the slightly easier run-in. I expect them to be in pole position. There will probably be a moment when it seems as though they’ve messed up, but they end up celebrating.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 5
Sam Lee, The Athletic’sManchester City correspondent:It’s funny what title races do to people. Next time Manchester City or Arsenal drop points and Liverpool win, let’s do this again and see who sticks with their previous choices!
It’s also funny how a three-horse race impacts things: Liverpool dropped points on Sunday and suddenly City fans, and clearly those who aren’t City fans, began to feel more confident — even though Arsenal carry on looking just as strong as they have done this year. I’m including myself in all this, by the way.
So, today I’ll say Manchester Citybecause they seem to hold their nerve the best, although Guardiola seems very downbeat on his team’s ability to fight on three fronts. Let’s see what happens the next time somebody drops points.
Total picks: Arsenal 3, Liverpool 1, Man City 6
Stu James:I fancied Liverpool to win the title before Sunday, but the way two points were squandered at Old Trafford — calamitous, really — has prompted a rethink. Manchester City have the experience and, on paper, a benign run-in. Realistically, it’s hard to see City dropping points against anyone other than Tottenham.
That said, Arsenal are in a great place right now — and I don’t just mean the top of the table. Arteta’s team are playing with supreme confidence and it’s hard to see a weakness (the debate about the need for a ‘killer’ up top has gone quiet).
Yes, Spurs and Manchester United away are tricky games (the former more so), but there are players in that Arsenal team — Gabriel, Saliba and Rice in particular — who look like, and more importantly play like, they love those fixtures (how that trio performed at Anfield in December comes to mind). So, my gut instinct says Arsenalnow (bear in mind I tipped Manchester City in August and Liverpool when Luis Diazput them ahead at Old Trafford).
Either way, it’s testament to Arteta and Arsenal, and Klopp and Liverpool, that they’ve pushed City so hard.
Final score: Arsenal 4, Liverpool 1, Man City 6
https://theathletic.com/5399638/2024/04/09/premier-league-title-predictions/