As happens every few years, the sky was deemed to be falling in after the Australian Grand Prix.
It was one of the less eventful season openers we've seen, there's no arguing that, but whenever the opening race of the season is a little flat, the reaction is usually much hand-wringing even when there were plenty of interesting storylines being teed up for the rest of the season.
The main reason for the negativity is that Mercedes is still so far ahead. That's not the team's fault and, regardless of the regulations, there's always the risk of that happening. Even in one-make racing, dominant forces can emerge.
Yes, everyone wants a close, multi-team fight at the front, but it's hardly a rarity for this kind of thing to happen. It's dangerous to assume that an average race is a direct and inevitable consequence of a set of rules.
What's more, one race is never an appropriate sample set to judge a season. After all, following the 2010 opener in Bahrain, the first since the ban on refuelling, talk in the paddock was dominated by negativity.
2010 began with a procession, but turned into a five-way title fight XPB |
And that proved to be a season that produced a stunning four-way title fight, albeit without too many classic individual races along the way.
The bottom line is that the die is not yet cast. Yes, the Mercedes is dominant, but it's not a foregone conclusion that Lewis Hamilton will win every single race, which is what some seem to be assuming.
It only takes two cars to make a great race, so this is where Nico Rosberg needs to dig deep, step up and make a proper fight of it, ideally starting in Malaysia this weekend.
Given Hamilton's near-inexorable progress in the races since the controversial clash at Spa last year, it's easy to forget just how credible Rosberg was as a title challenger in 2014.
Had he been able to convert some of the hard-earned winning positions late last season into 25 points, or had Hamilton suffered mechanical problems, it would have been the German that prevailed.
Clearly, Hamilton was the worthy champion, but it shows that Rosberg need only make some incremental gains in key areas to make a real fight of the 2015 title scrap.
What's encouraging is that Rosberg is something of a specialist in finding ways to improve. Those skills need to be razor-sharp given that Hamilton had him covered comfortably in Australia.
Rosberg will win races this year, but if he can turn the tables at Sepang it will be particularly significant. This was the circuit last year where Hamilton put in one of his most dominant performances compared to his team-mate.
Rosberg prevailed against Hamilton in Brazil last year XPB |
If Rosberg can do it, potentially it lays the foundations for another classic title fight between the pair. Hamilton has driven stunningly since the start of September, arguably stringing together his most convincing run of race performances to date.
But how will he react to a defeat? Not a loss like the one in Brazil last year, when an error with brake bias settings led to a spin that arguably gave Rosberg victory, but a genuine defeat inflicted by a quicker driver.
Admittedly, those have been rare. Of Rosberg's five wins last year, few were in straight fights with Hamilton.
In Australia, Hamilton's engine problem gave Rosberg a clear run. In Monaco, regardless of where you stand on Rosberg's convenient off in qualifying, that incident prevented the battle for pole playing out as it should have done.
In Austria, Hamilton's mistakes in Q3 gave Rosberg an advantage he never lost - although as those were errors in a pressure situation, this has to be considered more of a straight fight.
In Germany, Hamilton's brake problem in Q1 gave Rosberg an unchallenged win and while Hamilton was running behind him in Brazil, given he was pressuring his team-mate late on it's fair to conclude that the spin at least made Rosberg's job easier.
If that sounds like an assassination of Rosberg's skills, it isn't. He took plenty of pole positions and regularly established himself in winning positions.
Don't rule out victories for Ferrari and Raikkonen this year XPB |
That's why the key will be what happens this Saturday. Rosberg's qualifying performance was scruffy in Australia, so he needs to nail Hamilton in Q3 to try to derail the reigning champion.
Then, all he has to do is stay there in the race.
If he does, it will reignite hopes of another tight title fight. And if the two Mercedes drivers are busy worrying about each other, that could bring into play some of the wildcards.
After Australia, a win for Ferrari would be great news for F1. And it could come from either driver, for while Sebastian Vettel took a Ferrari debut podium in Melbourne, Kimi Raikkonen was very much in the game pace-wise.
His race started to unravel when he was forced wide at the first corner, then thanks to two pitstop problems, but the pace was there. Following his moribund performances in 2014, there are hints that the Finn is back in contention.
When Raikkonen's good, he's a joy to watch but there are too many times where his overly-particular demands for car feel lead to him not getting the best out of his machinery. But in his hands the 2015 Ferrari looks alive.
Australia was inconclusive when it came to analysing the relative performance of Ferrari and Williams. We should learn a lot more this weekend.
If Valtteri Bottas is passed fit - and apparently he is confident, although it's worth noting that he wanted to race in Australia but wasn't allowed to - and the weekend plays out normally for the Williams and Ferrari drivers, we should get a clearer idea of which is stronger.
Potentially, they are dead level, with differing strong and weak points. That's always a recipe for great racing - imagine what kind of season we'd be facing were Mercedes on a similar level!
But even if the weekend does go as pessimists predict, that doesn't mean the season is over. Remember, the opening two races of last year weren't classics, but they set the stage for a memorable campaign.
With engine-upgrade tokens yet to be spent and plenty of time left in the season, it's important to maintain some perspective.
'Random' 2012 included an out-of-the-blue win for Pastor Maldonado and Williams XPB |
Yes, this will surely be another Mercedes year, but there is a need for a sense of proportion. And even when the 2012 season started with a run of seven winners in the first seven races, then it was declared to be too random and supposedly difficult to understand.
Personally, I'm inclined to think that F1 fans love that kind of 'randomness' given that nobody knew who was going to win when the races started.
F1 has suffered from kneejerk and ill-considered changes in the past. With a big shake-up on the cards for 2017, it's vital that cause and effect is correctly understood.
What is essential is that F1 really understands what is the best package to deliver for the fans, rather than just allowing poor research, anecdotal 'evidence' and the tendency to reach for easy answers set it on the wrong path.
After all, there is still a lot right with Formula 1, and things that have made it so popular have not vanished overnight. That doesn't mean there aren't problems, but it's essential that the right moves are made for the right reasons.
And if Rosberg raises his game this weekend, or circumstances conspire to allow a Ferrari or Williams victory, rest assured things will look a lot brighter come Monday morning.
In F1, often the most memorable races happen when you least expect them. And that explains some of its enduring appeal.
As happens every few years, the sky was deemed to be falling in after the Australian Grand Prix.
It was one of the less eventful season openers we've seen, there's no arguing that, but whenever the opening race of the season is a little flat, the reaction is usually much hand-wringing even when there were plenty of interesting storylines being teed up for the rest of the season.
The main reason for the negativity is that Mercedes is still so far ahead. That's not the team's fault and, regardless of the regulations, there's always the risk of that happening. Even in one-make racing, dominant forces can emerge.
Yes, everyone wants a close, multi-team fight at the front, but it's hardly a rarity for this kind of thing to happen. It's dangerous to assume that an average race is a direct and inevitable consequence of a set of rules.
What's more, one race is never an appropriate sample set to judge a season. After all, following the 2010 opener in Bahrain, the first since the ban on refuelling, talk in the paddock was dominated by negativity.
2010 began with a procession, but turned into a five-way title fight XPB |
And that proved to be a season that produced a stunning four-way title fight, albeit without too many classic individual races along the way.
The bottom line is that the die is not yet cast. Yes, the Mercedes is dominant, but it's not a foregone conclusion that Lewis Hamilton will win every single race, which is what some seem to be assuming.
It only takes two cars to make a great race, so this is where Nico Rosberg needs to dig deep, step up and make a proper fight of it, ideally starting in Malaysia this weekend.
Given Hamilton's near-inexorable progress in the races since the controversial clash at Spa last year, it's easy to forget just how credible Rosberg was as a title challenger in 2014.
Had he been able to convert some of the hard-earned winning positions late last season into 25 points, or had Hamilton suffered mechanical problems, it would have been the German that prevailed.
Clearly, Hamilton was the worthy champion, but it shows that Rosberg need only make some incremental gains in key areas to make a real fight of the 2015 title scrap.
What's encouraging is that Rosberg is something of a specialist in finding ways to improve. Those skills need to be razor-sharp given that Hamilton had him covered comfortably in Australia.
Rosberg will win races this year, but if he can turn the tables at Sepang it will be particularly significant. This was the circuit last year where Hamilton put in one of his most dominant performances compared to his team-mate.
Rosberg prevailed against Hamilton in Brazil last year XPB |
If Rosberg can do it, potentially it lays the foundations for another classic title fight between the pair. Hamilton has driven stunningly since the start of September, arguably stringing together his most convincing run of race performances to date.
But how will he react to a defeat? Not a loss like the one in Brazil last year, when an error with brake bias settings led to a spin that arguably gave Rosberg victory, but a genuine defeat inflicted by a quicker driver.
Admittedly, those have been rare. Of Rosberg's five wins last year, few were in straight fights with Hamilton.
In Australia, Hamilton's engine problem gave Rosberg a clear run. In Monaco, regardless of where you stand on Rosberg's convenient off in qualifying, that incident prevented the battle for pole playing out as it should have done.
In Austria, Hamilton's mistakes in Q3 gave Rosberg an advantage he never lost - although as those were errors in a pressure situation, this has to be considered more of a straight fight.
In Germany, Hamilton's brake problem in Q1 gave Rosberg an unchallenged win and while Hamilton was running behind him in Brazil, given he was pressuring his team-mate late on it's fair to conclude that the spin at least made Rosberg's job easier.
If that sounds like an assassination of Rosberg's skills, it isn't. He took plenty of pole positions and regularly established himself in winning positions.
Don't rule out victories for Ferrari and Raikkonen this year XPB |
That's why the key will be what happens this Saturday. Rosberg's qualifying performance was scruffy in Australia, so he needs to nail Hamilton in Q3 to try to derail the reigning champion.
Then, all he has to do is stay there in the race.
If he does, it will reignite hopes of another tight title fight. And if the two Mercedes drivers are busy worrying about each other, that could bring into play some of the wildcards.
After Australia, a win for Ferrari would be great news for F1. And it could come from either driver, for while Sebastian Vettel took a Ferrari debut podium in Melbourne, Kimi Raikkonen was very much in the game pace-wise.
His race started to unravel when he was forced wide at the first corner, then thanks to two pitstop problems, but the pace was there. Following his moribund performances in 2014, there are hints that the Finn is back in contention.
When Raikkonen's good, he's a joy to watch but there are too many times where his overly-particular demands for car feel lead to him not getting the best out of his machinery. But in his hands the 2015 Ferrari looks alive.
Australia was inconclusive when it came to analysing the relative performance of Ferrari and Williams. We should learn a lot more this weekend.
If Valtteri Bottas is passed fit - and apparently he is confident, although it's worth noting that he wanted to race in Australia but wasn't allowed to - and the weekend plays out normally for the Williams and Ferrari drivers, we should get a clearer idea of which is stronger.
Potentially, they are dead level, with differing strong and weak points. That's always a recipe for great racing - imagine what kind of season we'd be facing were Mercedes on a similar level!
But even if the weekend does go as pessimists predict, that doesn't mean the season is over. Remember, the opening two races of last year weren't classics, but they set the stage for a memorable campaign.
With engine-upgrade tokens yet to be spent and plenty of time left in the season, it's important to maintain some perspective.
'Random' 2012 included an out-of-the-blue win for Pastor Maldonado and Williams XPB |
Yes, this will surely be another Mercedes year, but there is a need for a sense of proportion. And even when the 2012 season started with a run of seven winners in the first seven races, then it was declared to be too random and supposedly difficult to understand.
Personally, I'm inclined to think that F1 fans love that kind of 'randomness' given that nobody knew who was going to win when the races started.
F1 has suffered from kneejerk and ill-considered changes in the past. With a big shake-up on the cards for 2017, it's vital that cause and effect is correctly understood.
What is essential is that F1 really understands what is the best package to deliver for the fans, rather than just allowing poor research, anecdotal 'evidence' and the tendency to reach for easy answers set it on the wrong path.
After all, there is still a lot right with Formula 1, and things that have made it so popular have not vanished overnight. That doesn't mean there aren't problems, but it's essential that the right moves are made for the right reasons.
And if Rosberg raises his game this weekend, or circumstances conspire to allow a Ferrari or Williams victory, rest assured things will look a lot brighter come Monday morning.
In F1, often the most memorable races happen when you least expect them. And that explains some of its enduring appeal.
