Celtics add Malcolm Brogdon
Celtics get:
Malcolm Brogdon
Pacers get:
Nik Stauskas
Malik Fitts
Juwan Morgan
Daniel Theis
Aaron Nesmith
2023 first-round pick
Boston Celtics: A-
After All-Star Dejounte Murray, Brogdon is probably the second-best player to change teams so far this NBA offseason. The Celtics landing Brogdon weeks after losing in the NBA Finals -- and doing so without giving up any of their top eight players in playoff minutes -- is an incredible outcome.
Adding Brogdon required Boston ownership to greenlight a large luxury-tax bill next season. This deal instantly added several million to the Celtics' payroll before accounting for the four extra roster spots they'll now have to fill. Factor in Danilo Gallinari, penciled in at the $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel exception after ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported he prefers to sign with Boston once he's officially waived by the San Antonio Spurs, and the Celtics will likely be pushed more than $20 million into the tax.
By comparison to the enormous tax bills rung up by the Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers, Boston's payroll is still modest, but it reflects a more aggressive approach than the Celtics took in the past. That's particularly true because Brogdon has two additional years remaining on his contract at $22.5 million from an extension signed last fall. By 2024-25, when Jaylen Brown is up for a new contract, Boston's payroll could be enormous.
For that investment, the Celtics are getting another playmaker who fits perfectly. On offense, Brogdon immediately becomes Boston's best distributor. The 25.6 shots per 100 possessions on which Brogdon was the passer last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, were more than any Celtics player. (Marcus Smart led the team at 24.8.)
At the same time, Brogdon can play off the ball to complement Brown, Smart and Jayson Tatum handling it. He's a career 38% 3-point shooter whose diet of attempts beyond the arc should hew closer to what it was in Milwaukee (where 83% of his attempts were assisted, via Basketball-Reference.com) than in Indiana (60%). For his career, Brogdon has made 42% of catch-and-shoot 3 attempts as compared to 32% of all others, per Second Spectrum.
On defense, the 6-foot-5 Brogdon gives Boston yet another physical defender for his size capable of switching on bigger opponents. Already, the Celtics' playoff rotations featured few openings for opponents to attack. If Brogdon supplants the smaller Payton Pritchard and Derrick White in the backcourt, those options will shrink further on the perimeter.
The biggest challenge for Boston coach Ime Udoka may be finding enough minutes to go around with the additions of Brogdon and Gallinari. During the regular season, that challenge matches up well with Brogdon's biggest shortcoming: a series of injuries that kept him off the court. Brogdon has missed at least 16 games in every season since his rookie year. With Pritchard and White still in reserve, the Celtics should be covered during those absences and can limit Brogdon's workload in the regular season.
Besides the alternative cost of adding salary, Boston gave up remarkably little for Brogdon. Nesmith was the last pick of the lottery two years ago in large part because of his shooting prowess but made just 27% of his 3s last season, making him more of a lotto ticket at this stage. Getting off the two remaining guaranteed years on Theis' contract is a win for the Celtics despite the organization's fondness for him and the role Theis did play as a third center in the playoffs. All the other players Boston is sending to Indiana had non-guaranteed contracts that will need to be guaranteed to work as matching salary.
Down the road, there is some concern that Celtics ownership will pull back spending after the excitement of a surprise Finals run wears off and adding Brogdon will foreclose other options to the team -- particularly if his trade value suffers in his 30s. Still, Boston's title window is open now and adding Brogdon improves the chances of Boston hanging an 18th banner at TD Garden.
Indiana Pacers: B
Once the New York Knicks (Jalen Brunson) and Washington Wizards (Monte Morris) filled their needs for starting point guards, the market for Brogdon surely contracted substantially. Although this deal doesn't yield the kind of draft-pick compensation the Pacers were probably hoping for, I understand getting value for Brogdon while it's there.
For one, Brogdon would have to actually play after seeing action in just eight games after last year's deal bringing Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana. With Haliburton and T.J. McConnell at point guard, that would probably mean taking minutes away from recent first-round picks Chris Duarte and Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Duarte and Mathurin are important parts of the Pacers' future.
Second, Brogdon's injury history meant that planning for a deal to come together at the trade deadline would have been risky. If Brogdon was sidelined, his value would dwindle and a move might have been impossible to make.
I do wonder if Indiana could have waited out the trade market for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to see whether a multiteam deal created an opening for a point guard. (One of the Durant trades I proposed sent Ben Simmons to the Pacers with Brogdon as the key return for the Brooklyn Nets.) Surely, Indiana initiated those conversations in the past 24 hours and decided whatever possibility existed wasn't worth the possibility of being left with no deal.
Beyond the Boston draft pick, the Pacers can add Nesmith to their fleet of young wins and see whether his shooting develops as anticipated. Additionally, despite taking on the Celtics' excess contracts as guarantees, Indiana created an additional few million dollars in cap space and now has more flexibility to take on unwanted deals from other teams.
Gallinari to Boston?
Because he hasn't yet been waived by the San Antonio Spurs, who acquired him as part of their trade sending Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks, Danilo Gallinari isn't technically a free agent. Still, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that Gallinari's preference is to sign with the Boston Celtics once he formally clears waivers.
Given his age (34 in August), Gallinari was an interesting free agent because he simultaneously is most appealing to contending teams but also less valuable in the playoffs due to his defensive limitations. Gallinari saw his minutes per game drop from 25.3 in the regular season to 22.4 in last year's first-round series against the Miami Heat despite starting three games in the absence of injured Clint Capela.
All of that makes Gallinari a tricky fit with the Celtics. During the regular season, he'll undoubtedly add depth in the front court and help Boston tamp down the workloads for starters Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Horford may spend more time at center during the regular season with the Celtics trading Daniel Theis as part of the Malcolm Brogdon deal, freeing up opportunity for Gallinari at power forward.
Come playoff time, Gallinari presents a more attractive target to offenses who found few Boston players worth attacking 1-on-1 during the team's run to the 2021 Finals. It wouldn't be shocking if Gallinari falls out of the rotation entirely. Because the Celtics are so deep after adding Brogdon, they could easily manage without Gallinari if he struggles.
At this point of free agency, there's no clear upgrade Boston passed on in favor of Gallinari, so the decision is understandable. I just hope both sides were up-front about how Gallinari's role might decrease in the playoffs.
Celtics add Malcolm Brogdon
Celtics get:
Malcolm Brogdon
Pacers get:
Nik Stauskas
Malik Fitts
Juwan Morgan
Daniel Theis
Aaron Nesmith
2023 first-round pick
Boston Celtics: A-
After All-Star Dejounte Murray, Brogdon is probably the second-best player to change teams so far this NBA offseason. The Celtics landing Brogdon weeks after losing in the NBA Finals -- and doing so without giving up any of their top eight players in playoff minutes -- is an incredible outcome.
Adding Brogdon required Boston ownership to greenlight a large luxury-tax bill next season. This deal instantly added several million to the Celtics' payroll before accounting for the four extra roster spots they'll now have to fill. Factor in Danilo Gallinari, penciled in at the $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel exception after ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported he prefers to sign with Boston once he's officially waived by the San Antonio Spurs, and the Celtics will likely be pushed more than $20 million into the tax.
By comparison to the enormous tax bills rung up by the Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers, Boston's payroll is still modest, but it reflects a more aggressive approach than the Celtics took in the past. That's particularly true because Brogdon has two additional years remaining on his contract at $22.5 million from an extension signed last fall. By 2024-25, when Jaylen Brown is up for a new contract, Boston's payroll could be enormous.
For that investment, the Celtics are getting another playmaker who fits perfectly. On offense, Brogdon immediately becomes Boston's best distributor. The 25.6 shots per 100 possessions on which Brogdon was the passer last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, were more than any Celtics player. (Marcus Smart led the team at 24.8.)
At the same time, Brogdon can play off the ball to complement Brown, Smart and Jayson Tatum handling it. He's a career 38% 3-point shooter whose diet of attempts beyond the arc should hew closer to what it was in Milwaukee (where 83% of his attempts were assisted, via Basketball-Reference.com) than in Indiana (60%). For his career, Brogdon has made 42% of catch-and-shoot 3 attempts as compared to 32% of all others, per Second Spectrum.
On defense, the 6-foot-5 Brogdon gives Boston yet another physical defender for his size capable of switching on bigger opponents. Already, the Celtics' playoff rotations featured few openings for opponents to attack. If Brogdon supplants the smaller Payton Pritchard and Derrick White in the backcourt, those options will shrink further on the perimeter.
The biggest challenge for Boston coach Ime Udoka may be finding enough minutes to go around with the additions of Brogdon and Gallinari. During the regular season, that challenge matches up well with Brogdon's biggest shortcoming: a series of injuries that kept him off the court. Brogdon has missed at least 16 games in every season since his rookie year. With Pritchard and White still in reserve, the Celtics should be covered during those absences and can limit Brogdon's workload in the regular season.
Besides the alternative cost of adding salary, Boston gave up remarkably little for Brogdon. Nesmith was the last pick of the lottery two years ago in large part because of his shooting prowess but made just 27% of his 3s last season, making him more of a lotto ticket at this stage. Getting off the two remaining guaranteed years on Theis' contract is a win for the Celtics despite the organization's fondness for him and the role Theis did play as a third center in the playoffs. All the other players Boston is sending to Indiana had non-guaranteed contracts that will need to be guaranteed to work as matching salary.
Down the road, there is some concern that Celtics ownership will pull back spending after the excitement of a surprise Finals run wears off and adding Brogdon will foreclose other options to the team -- particularly if his trade value suffers in his 30s. Still, Boston's title window is open now and adding Brogdon improves the chances of Boston hanging an 18th banner at TD Garden.
Indiana Pacers: B
Once the New York Knicks (Jalen Brunson) and Washington Wizards (Monte Morris) filled their needs for starting point guards, the market for Brogdon surely contracted substantially. Although this deal doesn't yield the kind of draft-pick compensation the Pacers were probably hoping for, I understand getting value for Brogdon while it's there.
For one, Brogdon would have to actually play after seeing action in just eight games after last year's deal bringing Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana. With Haliburton and T.J. McConnell at point guard, that would probably mean taking minutes away from recent first-round picks Chris Duarte and Bennedict Mathurin on the wing. Duarte and Mathurin are important parts of the Pacers' future.
Second, Brogdon's injury history meant that planning for a deal to come together at the trade deadline would have been risky. If Brogdon was sidelined, his value would dwindle and a move might have been impossible to make.
I do wonder if Indiana could have waited out the trade market for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to see whether a multiteam deal created an opening for a point guard. (One of the Durant trades I proposed sent Ben Simmons to the Pacers with Brogdon as the key return for the Brooklyn Nets.) Surely, Indiana initiated those conversations in the past 24 hours and decided whatever possibility existed wasn't worth the possibility of being left with no deal.
Beyond the Boston draft pick, the Pacers can add Nesmith to their fleet of young wins and see whether his shooting develops as anticipated. Additionally, despite taking on the Celtics' excess contracts as guarantees, Indiana created an additional few million dollars in cap space and now has more flexibility to take on unwanted deals from other teams.
Gallinari to Boston?
Because he hasn't yet been waived by the San Antonio Spurs, who acquired him as part of their trade sending Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks, Danilo Gallinari isn't technically a free agent. Still, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that Gallinari's preference is to sign with the Boston Celtics once he formally clears waivers.
Given his age (34 in August), Gallinari was an interesting free agent because he simultaneously is most appealing to contending teams but also less valuable in the playoffs due to his defensive limitations. Gallinari saw his minutes per game drop from 25.3 in the regular season to 22.4 in last year's first-round series against the Miami Heat despite starting three games in the absence of injured Clint Capela.
All of that makes Gallinari a tricky fit with the Celtics. During the regular season, he'll undoubtedly add depth in the front court and help Boston tamp down the workloads for starters Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Horford may spend more time at center during the regular season with the Celtics trading Daniel Theis as part of the Malcolm Brogdon deal, freeing up opportunity for Gallinari at power forward.
Come playoff time, Gallinari presents a more attractive target to offenses who found few Boston players worth attacking 1-on-1 during the team's run to the 2021 Finals. It wouldn't be shocking if Gallinari falls out of the rotation entirely. Because the Celtics are so deep after adding Brogdon, they could easily manage without Gallinari if he struggles.
At this point of free agency, there's no clear upgrade Boston passed on in favor of Gallinari, so the decision is understandable. I just hope both sides were up-front about how Gallinari's role might decrease in the playoffs.