Knicks’ RJ Barrett extension question: How much will it take?
With only a few games remaining in the regular season, RJ Barrett proclaimed his loyalty to the team that drafted him three years ago.
“This is where I wanna be. I love playing for the Knicks. I love playing in the Garden,” he said. “I love how we got to the playoffs last year and looking to do that again. I love everything about being a Knick. Yeah, (this is) 100 percent the place I wanna be.”
The Knicks must be thrilled to hear their top young player speak so enthusiastically. But soon, they’ll approach Barrett with a straightforward challenge: How much will it take?
Barrett becomes eligible for an extension on July 1. He and the Knicks have until the day before the 2022-23 season begins to reach an agreement. If they don’t, he’ll hit restricted free agency next summer.
Until then, the big question looms: Should the Knicks give Barrett a max contract, worth a projected $185 million over five years? The deal would kick in for the 2023-24 season with a $32 million starting salary.
Barrett, who the Knicks drafted No. 3 in 2019, made strides once again during his third season, turning himself into one of the league’s most relentless rim pursuers. After the calendar turned to 2022, only LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo took more shots around the basket.
He averaged 20 points per game in 2021-22. He’s the 15th player 21 or younger to average 20 in a season over the last decade. He defended the opposition’s best wing night after night, as well.
“I was motivated to do this and to eventually do more,” Barrett said in April. “I’m happy the way my season’s been ending. There’s room to improve. And then team-wise, just wanna carry this momentum so that next year we can hit the ground running and get back into the playoffs.”
Barrett’s representatives will lay out all of that information (along with a projection many believe: that he can become an All-Star one day) when they meet with the front office to discuss an extension. The Knicks have dubbed him their franchise player.
There’s the historical pressure that comes with this organization, too, the snazzy trivia bite Knicks fans obsess over that this team hasn’t re-signed one of its first-round picks to a long-term contract since Charlie Ward, who at this point people talk about like he was shooting in peach baskets.
But things aren’t as simple as just handing Barrett the max, even for those who believe he has a chance to reach the highest heights. And that’s where negotiations, depending on how stubborn the Knicks choose to act, could get uncomfortable.
There are still questions about Barrett’s efficiency. Of the 22 players who attempted as many shots as he did last season, he had the third-worst true-shooting percentage, ahead of only last-place Reggie Jackson and teammate Julius Randle. Barrett was a sliver behind the slightly more-efficient Russell Westbrook.
Getting better isn’t just about honing a more consistent 3-pointer. Barrett recognizing his game should build from the paint out was a brilliant and conscious development last season, but he needs to up his percentages around the rim, too, which are the lowest of anyone who regularly spends so much time close to the hoop.
Yet, he’s improved on these traits every season of his career. Why should that stop?
He struggled mightily as a rookie, but he’s reworked his jumper since. At first, he didn’t get to the foul line much. Now, he lives there. His defense is more physical. The Knicks will make an offer based not on what’s happened over the last three years. They’ll do it based on how the last three years inform the next four or five.
The Athletic conducted a poll, asking 16 officials in NBA front offices what they would deem a fair number for Barrett in an extension this summer or fall. Responses ranged from $15 million to $30 million a year. No one advocated for the Knicks to give him the max. Exactly half of the responses were a nice, clean four years, $100 million, making it by far the most common proposal from the polled executives.
One high-ranking exec, who said that $25 million a year was reasonable, compared Barrett’s extension negotiations to John Collins’ 2021 free agency. Collins wanted the max but ended up re-signing with the Hawks on a five-year, $125 million contract. The one difference? NBA rules state players can’t receive more than four years in a rookie-scale extension, the type Barrett would get, unless it’s a max. Thus, Barrett receives only four here.
Four seasons of $25 million salaries would be only $7 million a year less than Barrett’s starting salary on a max, but it sure feels far off when you add it all up. Factor in maximum year-to-year raises and the valuable fifth year, and four-for-100 is about $85 million fewer guaranteed.
One executive suggested $28 million a year for Barrett. Another said he would give the 21-year-old $30 million a year, a hair under the max, because the player has to compromise if he wants the security of an extension. That was the highest annual salary anyone in the poll submitted, though this exec made it clear he thought Barrett had max-player capabilities.
There were several comments from those polled about having no problem paying him the max in restricted free agency if he made significant improvements in 2022-23, which most people consider possible. Barrett’s admirable work ethic is notorious at this point. Many of the people polled for this story referenced it in conversations with The Athletic.
People who focus on analytics tended to be on the lower side, though a couple of people justified smaller contracts because they were wary about Barrett as a distributor. The lowest suggestion was from a high-ranking executive who proposed $15 million a year. Of course, if that person were running the Knicks and made Barrett’s agent that offer, he might take a palm to the face.
Barrett’s restricted free agency colors all of this. If he and the Knicks can’t agree on an extension, it’s not like he can just walk elsewhere the following summer.
The Knicks could make a proposal below the max, then tell him if he plays like a max player in 2022-23, they’ll give him the contract he wants in free agency. His restricted status means that the Knicks can match any offer he receives elsewhere to bring him back for the same price. If Barrett were a robot, that strategy might be best, but real life doesn’t always work so mechanically.
Not too long ago, the Utah Jazz let at-the-time restricted free agent Gordon Hayward sign a max offer sheet with the Hornets, then matched it to bring him back. Four years later, when the aforementioned contract expired, Utah not showing enough faith in Hayward the first time around was one of the reasons cited for the All-Star forward signing with the Celtics. A similar situation occurred with Kevin Love during negotiations for his rookie-scale extension in 2011. The Timberwolves gave Love the max but offered only four years, not five. Today, a comparable dynamic is playing out with the Suns and Deandre Ayton after Phoenix elected not to extend the former No. 1 pick back in the fall.
If the Knicks believe Barrett can reach multi-time All-Star status — and those opinions are not just a pipe dream with the fan base; there are lots of smart people around the league who think Barrett can climb that high, even if they acknowledge he’s not there yet — then they may not want to peeve the guy they consider the future of their franchise.
It’s one thing for a group of execs to insist from far away that they would give Barrett $25 million a year. Their situations are all impersonal. It’s another to not cave when Barrett and his reps are looking you in the eye, especially when you’re the organization that drafted him with a No. 3 pick and the two guys ahead of him, the Pelicans’ Zion Williamson and the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant, are both about to get maxed out, too.
Anyone from the front office down to the coaching staff raves about Barrett’s character, care and competitiveness. He has a rare ability to identify his flaws, which is the first step to eliminating them. Part of the reason he started flying at the rim midseason was that he figured he wasn’t making jumpers and should adjust his style to become more effective. That sort of self-awareness doesn’t come in every 21-year-old. There are endless examples of front offices betting on the person as much as the player. Maybe this will be another.
But it is almost unheard of for someone with Barrett’s résumé to get paid so lucratively.
Since the 2011-12 season, when the NBA entered with a new collective-bargaining agreement, 26 players have received max rookie-scale extensions, which first-round picks are eligible for after their third seasons. One of those players was already an MVP at the time he inked his new deal. That’s Barrett’s teammate, Derrick Rose. Nine of those 26 players had already made an All-NBA team by the time they signed their extensions; 15 had already made an All-Star team; 24 had already earned an accolade of some type, whether that was the NBA’s Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year or making one of the two All-Rookie teams.
Only two of those 26 players earned no awards of any kind over their first three NBA seasons, yet received max extensions anyway: the Kings’ De’Aaron Fox, who signed in 2020, and the Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr., who re-upped the following season. If the Knicks gave Barrett the max, he would be the third.
Today, neither the Fox nor the Porter contract is considered team-friendly.
That’s not to say Barrett won’t continue to improve. Of course, he will. But until 2020, giving someone with his résumé a max extension after Year 3 was somewhat unprecedented. And even now, it’s rare.
There are salary cap-centric reasons the Knicks could use to hold back a max offer in extension talks. As of now, were Barrett to hit the open market next summer, his cap hold (a predetermined placeholder for a free agent that counts against the team’s cap sheet) would be about $5 million below his max salary, though there is some down-to-the-wire uncertainty about that number, as explained in the final section of this story. If the Knicks hope to be aggressive in 2023 free agency, they could tell Barrett they want to re-sign him next summer instead of now, thus operating with his cap hold on the books instead of a max salary, giving them $5 million more in room.
This argument gains more steam if the Knicks fill up their roster this summer. If they add, say, a $25 million salary for Jalen Brunson, they could still be below the cap in 2023-24, but they’d have to make serious maneuvers to open up max room. The extra $5 million could make a difference.
Ultimately, though, if a team believes in a player, it ignores the minutiae. It eats an extra $5 million out of its flexibility. It’s worth it to make that player happy, to show him he’s a part of the group’s future.
The Knicks have said all the right things about Barrett. Head coach Tom Thibodeau praises his development and work ethic at every turn. His teammates gush about him in the locker room. They send him out to speak to reporters after just about every game. Barrett — as much as anyone, save for maybe Thibodeau — has become the organization’s main voice, and he’s done it at only 21 years old.
Soon, the Knicks will put a number on that value, and they will eagerly await to see if Barrett agrees with it.
Knicks’ RJ Barrett extension question: How much will it take?
With only a few games remaining in the regular season, RJ Barrett proclaimed his loyalty to the team that drafted him three years ago.
“This is where I wanna be. I love playing for the Knicks. I love playing in the Garden,” he said. “I love how we got to the playoffs last year and looking to do that again. I love everything about being a Knick. Yeah, (this is) 100 percent the place I wanna be.”
The Knicks must be thrilled to hear their top young player speak so enthusiastically. But soon, they’ll approach Barrett with a straightforward challenge: How much will it take?
Barrett becomes eligible for an extension on July 1. He and the Knicks have until the day before the 2022-23 season begins to reach an agreement. If they don’t, he’ll hit restricted free agency next summer.
Until then, the big question looms: Should the Knicks give Barrett a max contract, worth a projected $185 million over five years? The deal would kick in for the 2023-24 season with a $32 million starting salary.
Barrett, who the Knicks drafted No. 3 in 2019, made strides once again during his third season, turning himself into one of the league’s most relentless rim pursuers. After the calendar turned to 2022, only LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo took more shots around the basket.
He averaged 20 points per game in 2021-22. He’s the 15th player 21 or younger to average 20 in a season over the last decade. He defended the opposition’s best wing night after night, as well.
“I was motivated to do this and to eventually do more,” Barrett said in April. “I’m happy the way my season’s been ending. There’s room to improve. And then team-wise, just wanna carry this momentum so that next year we can hit the ground running and get back into the playoffs.”
Barrett’s representatives will lay out all of that information (along with a projection many believe: that he can become an All-Star one day) when they meet with the front office to discuss an extension. The Knicks have dubbed him their franchise player.
There’s the historical pressure that comes with this organization, too, the snazzy trivia bite Knicks fans obsess over that this team hasn’t re-signed one of its first-round picks to a long-term contract since Charlie Ward, who at this point people talk about like he was shooting in peach baskets.
But things aren’t as simple as just handing Barrett the max, even for those who believe he has a chance to reach the highest heights. And that’s where negotiations, depending on how stubborn the Knicks choose to act, could get uncomfortable.
There are still questions about Barrett’s efficiency. Of the 22 players who attempted as many shots as he did last season, he had the third-worst true-shooting percentage, ahead of only last-place Reggie Jackson and teammate Julius Randle. Barrett was a sliver behind the slightly more-efficient Russell Westbrook.
Getting better isn’t just about honing a more consistent 3-pointer. Barrett recognizing his game should build from the paint out was a brilliant and conscious development last season, but he needs to up his percentages around the rim, too, which are the lowest of anyone who regularly spends so much time close to the hoop.
Yet, he’s improved on these traits every season of his career. Why should that stop?
He struggled mightily as a rookie, but he’s reworked his jumper since. At first, he didn’t get to the foul line much. Now, he lives there. His defense is more physical. The Knicks will make an offer based not on what’s happened over the last three years. They’ll do it based on how the last three years inform the next four or five.
The Athletic conducted a poll, asking 16 officials in NBA front offices what they would deem a fair number for Barrett in an extension this summer or fall. Responses ranged from $15 million to $30 million a year. No one advocated for the Knicks to give him the max. Exactly half of the responses were a nice, clean four years, $100 million, making it by far the most common proposal from the polled executives.
One high-ranking exec, who said that $25 million a year was reasonable, compared Barrett’s extension negotiations to John Collins’ 2021 free agency. Collins wanted the max but ended up re-signing with the Hawks on a five-year, $125 million contract. The one difference? NBA rules state players can’t receive more than four years in a rookie-scale extension, the type Barrett would get, unless it’s a max. Thus, Barrett receives only four here.
Four seasons of $25 million salaries would be only $7 million a year less than Barrett’s starting salary on a max, but it sure feels far off when you add it all up. Factor in maximum year-to-year raises and the valuable fifth year, and four-for-100 is about $85 million fewer guaranteed.
One executive suggested $28 million a year for Barrett. Another said he would give the 21-year-old $30 million a year, a hair under the max, because the player has to compromise if he wants the security of an extension. That was the highest annual salary anyone in the poll submitted, though this exec made it clear he thought Barrett had max-player capabilities.
There were several comments from those polled about having no problem paying him the max in restricted free agency if he made significant improvements in 2022-23, which most people consider possible. Barrett’s admirable work ethic is notorious at this point. Many of the people polled for this story referenced it in conversations with The Athletic.
People who focus on analytics tended to be on the lower side, though a couple of people justified smaller contracts because they were wary about Barrett as a distributor. The lowest suggestion was from a high-ranking executive who proposed $15 million a year. Of course, if that person were running the Knicks and made Barrett’s agent that offer, he might take a palm to the face.
Barrett’s restricted free agency colors all of this. If he and the Knicks can’t agree on an extension, it’s not like he can just walk elsewhere the following summer.
The Knicks could make a proposal below the max, then tell him if he plays like a max player in 2022-23, they’ll give him the contract he wants in free agency. His restricted status means that the Knicks can match any offer he receives elsewhere to bring him back for the same price. If Barrett were a robot, that strategy might be best, but real life doesn’t always work so mechanically.
Not too long ago, the Utah Jazz let at-the-time restricted free agent Gordon Hayward sign a max offer sheet with the Hornets, then matched it to bring him back. Four years later, when the aforementioned contract expired, Utah not showing enough faith in Hayward the first time around was one of the reasons cited for the All-Star forward signing with the Celtics. A similar situation occurred with Kevin Love during negotiations for his rookie-scale extension in 2011. The Timberwolves gave Love the max but offered only four years, not five. Today, a comparable dynamic is playing out with the Suns and Deandre Ayton after Phoenix elected not to extend the former No. 1 pick back in the fall.
If the Knicks believe Barrett can reach multi-time All-Star status — and those opinions are not just a pipe dream with the fan base; there are lots of smart people around the league who think Barrett can climb that high, even if they acknowledge he’s not there yet — then they may not want to peeve the guy they consider the future of their franchise.
It’s one thing for a group of execs to insist from far away that they would give Barrett $25 million a year. Their situations are all impersonal. It’s another to not cave when Barrett and his reps are looking you in the eye, especially when you’re the organization that drafted him with a No. 3 pick and the two guys ahead of him, the Pelicans’ Zion Williamson and the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant, are both about to get maxed out, too.
Anyone from the front office down to the coaching staff raves about Barrett’s character, care and competitiveness. He has a rare ability to identify his flaws, which is the first step to eliminating them. Part of the reason he started flying at the rim midseason was that he figured he wasn’t making jumpers and should adjust his style to become more effective. That sort of self-awareness doesn’t come in every 21-year-old. There are endless examples of front offices betting on the person as much as the player. Maybe this will be another.
But it is almost unheard of for someone with Barrett’s résumé to get paid so lucratively.
Since the 2011-12 season, when the NBA entered with a new collective-bargaining agreement, 26 players have received max rookie-scale extensions, which first-round picks are eligible for after their third seasons. One of those players was already an MVP at the time he inked his new deal. That’s Barrett’s teammate, Derrick Rose. Nine of those 26 players had already made an All-NBA team by the time they signed their extensions; 15 had already made an All-Star team; 24 had already earned an accolade of some type, whether that was the NBA’s Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year or making one of the two All-Rookie teams.
Only two of those 26 players earned no awards of any kind over their first three NBA seasons, yet received max extensions anyway: the Kings’ De’Aaron Fox, who signed in 2020, and the Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr., who re-upped the following season. If the Knicks gave Barrett the max, he would be the third.
Today, neither the Fox nor the Porter contract is considered team-friendly.
That’s not to say Barrett won’t continue to improve. Of course, he will. But until 2020, giving someone with his résumé a max extension after Year 3 was somewhat unprecedented. And even now, it’s rare.
There are salary cap-centric reasons the Knicks could use to hold back a max offer in extension talks. As of now, were Barrett to hit the open market next summer, his cap hold (a predetermined placeholder for a free agent that counts against the team’s cap sheet) would be about $5 million below his max salary, though there is some down-to-the-wire uncertainty about that number, as explained in the final section of this story. If the Knicks hope to be aggressive in 2023 free agency, they could tell Barrett they want to re-sign him next summer instead of now, thus operating with his cap hold on the books instead of a max salary, giving them $5 million more in room.
This argument gains more steam if the Knicks fill up their roster this summer. If they add, say, a $25 million salary for Jalen Brunson, they could still be below the cap in 2023-24, but they’d have to make serious maneuvers to open up max room. The extra $5 million could make a difference.
Ultimately, though, if a team believes in a player, it ignores the minutiae. It eats an extra $5 million out of its flexibility. It’s worth it to make that player happy, to show him he’s a part of the group’s future.
The Knicks have said all the right things about Barrett. Head coach Tom Thibodeau praises his development and work ethic at every turn. His teammates gush about him in the locker room. They send him out to speak to reporters after just about every game. Barrett — as much as anyone, save for maybe Thibodeau — has become the organization’s main voice, and he’s done it at only 21 years old.
Soon, the Knicks will put a number on that value, and they will eagerly await to see if Barrett agrees with it.