Four disturbing trends the Pelicans must reverse after 5-8 start

Basketball has always been a numbers game, but analytics have taken over the sport in recent years.

Getting on the right side of the math has been a driving force behind so much of the change around the NBA in recent years, from style of play to team building.

When Stan Van Gundy was hired to coach the Pelicans, it wasn’t because he was some kind of numbers guru who would innovate basketball in New Orleans. He is knowledgeable about analytics, but that’s not his specialty.

He was brought in to reinforce the fundamentals of winning that slipped away from the franchise in recent years: defensive execution, playing with consistent effort, taking care of the basketball.

While Van Gundy and his staff are working to ensure those pillars are put in place, other obstacles have caused the Pelicans to lose five of their past six. In many ways, the math has not been in their favor in some very concerning areas.

To turn things around after an ugly 5-8 start, they’ll have to show some significant improvements in these critical areas:

The 3-point shooting numbers for this team are baffling.

Through 13 games, the Pelicans rank 29th in 3-pointers made per game (9.4) and 30th in 3-pointers allowed per game (16.2). They’re getting outscored by an average of 21 points from behind the arc.

That’s a tremendous difference in a league where the 3-point shot has become essential.

Van Gundy said he believes that New Orleans can build a defense similar to that of Milwaukee and Toronto, which give up 3s at a high rate in an attempt to limit shots in the paint and at the free-throw line.

There have only been five instances in NBA history where a team has allowed 1,000 or more 3-pointers in a season, and all were in the past two seasons.

The Pelicans are on pace to give up 1,166 3-pointers this season, which would be the most in NBA history. And that’s in a season where they’re scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82.

Opponents are also making 3-balls at a 37.8 percent clip against their defense, so it’s not like they’re making teams take tough shots, either.

Combine those numbers with the fact that the Pelicans are clanking 3-pointers left and right and it’s almost surprising that their record isn’t worse. They’re like a 1990s team that’s been put into a time machine and forced to play against the 2017-18 Warriors every night.

Pelicans fans are asking, “Which issue do they need to solve more?”

My answer: both.

Brandon Ingram admitted after Tuesday’s loss to Utah, where the team surrendered 21 3-pointers in a double-digit loss, that the Pels have to take and make more 3s. Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick have been scuffling through horrid shooting slumps, which explain some of the troubles. But the volume of long-distance shots has to go up.

This roster was built to dominate on the inside and they’ll never be an elite unit from the 3-point line in its current form. But it’s impossible to keep up making two or three long-distance shots in one half the way New Orleans has on several occasions this year.

On the other end, a lot of the 3s they’re giving up aren’t just a result of Van Gundy’s schemes. It’s bad communication in pick-and-roll, guys overhelping from the corners, bad transition defense. Just about every way they can give up 3s, they have.

Van Gundy said he’ll have to make some schematic adjustments to limit the numbers, a move he probably should’ve made a few games ago. But the defenders also need to play smarter and be more fundamentally sound with their decisions.

When the problem is this vast, there’s rarely one solution. But there has to be much more effort put into chipping away at what’s become the team’s biggest flaw.

Even the biggest Steven Adams fan in the world probably had a hard time seeing how valuable he’s become in his first season with the Pelicans.

Most of the principles Van Gundy has tried to instill in his new team — protecting the paint, dominating the boards, keeping opponents off the free-throw line — are areas where he excels. Plus, he’s reliable on offense as a finisher at the rim and a pick-and-roll partner with Ingram.

Overall, the Pelicans have to feel pretty good about their biggest — literally and figuratively — offseason acquisition.

But they’re probably relying on him too much.

The Zion Williamson-Adams frontcourt has received a lot of the blame for New Orleans’ spacing issues, and it certainly has been difficult to operate at times with two huge bodies like that occupying the paint.

But the Pelicans frontcourt can be effective when utilized in the right matchups. The bigger issue is that they can’t piece together any other frontcourt combos that can play extended minutes without getting torched.

According to Cleaning The Glass, New Orleans has been 18.7 points per 100 possessions better whenever Adams is on the floor. Those are the kind of on/off numbers Anthony Davis posted when he was dominating here. As great as Adams has been, he certainly shouldn’t be in those kinds of conversations.

Jaxson Hayes has played better as of late, but he’s still a very young player who gets lost on defense at times and doesn’t impact the defensive boards the way Adams has his entire career. Nicolo Melli has looked completely lost on the offensive end and fell out of the rotation in Tuesday’s beatdown.

Well, maybe they should play more Zion at center? It’s a small sample size, but New Orleans has been outscored by 12.4 points per 100 possessions whenever Zion plays in lineups without Hayes or Adams. There aren’t any good answers at this point.

The Pelicans are thrilled about what they’ve received from Adams so far, but he can’t play the entire game. And there are certain matchups, like against the Jazz on Tuesday, where a different look is the only way to survive.

Van Gundy preaches that good teams know who they are and how to execute what they do best, and he’s correct. But that doesn’t mean you do the exact same thing every game. There are certain nights when you’ve got to go with Plan B. New Orleans is still figuring out how to get that done with the pieces they have.

This is a minor one, but the Pelicans have to be much better at protecting the rim.

They’ve bought into Van Gundy’s defensive gameplan of holding down the paint. But once teams are able to breach that wall in front of the rim, it’s been like a layup line.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Pelicans rank No. 3 in shots allowed at the rim, which is an incredible jump for a team that finished 28th last season. However, when teams get to the rim, they’re shooting 69.8 percent, which is tied with Denver for the worst mark in the league.

If Milwaukee’s defense is the blueprint the Pelicans want to follow, yes, they were indeed No. 1 in shots allowed at the rim last season. But they were also No. 1 in shooting percentage allowed at the rim — and by a wide margin. It’s one of the main reasons Brook Lopez made the All-Defensive team last year.

Adams is a big body who can do a lot of the things Lopez did last year to be successful, but the Pelicans center has never averaged more than 1.2 blocks per game.

According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting a whopping 71.4 percent whenever Zion contests a shot within 6 feet of the rim, one of the worst numbers in the league for bigs getting significant minutes. Hayes isn’t much better, allowing opponents to shoot 65.2 percent at that mark.

For reference, Lopez held opponents to 44.1 percent on shots within 6 feet — the best in the league.

To execute this style of play at the highest level, it isn’t just about stopping teams from taking shots at the rim. You also have to provide some real intimidation for those who dare step foot in the area of the court the team values most.

Pace has almost become a bad word among the Pelicans community after Van Gundy has railed on several occasions about it being a “worthless stat.” He’s made the case that good defensive teams force their opponents to take more time to score, which naturally shrinks the number of possessions in a game.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Pelicans are one of the slowest teams in the league. They move at a snail’s pace. It’s shocking that a team with Zion, Ball and Ingram looks as boring as they have on offense despite all their young talent.

Van Gundy has emphasized halfcourt execution, but he’s never said he doesn’t want his team to run. He would just prefer if they run during advantageous moments.

The problem is they aren’t running even when they should be.

According to Inpredictable.com, which measures the amount of time each team uses on the shot clock before it puts up an attempt, the Pelicans have gone from the fastest offense in the NBA last season to No. 19 in their first 13 games under Van Gundy.

Teams that are really good in transition know how to exploit defenses during two occasions: after a defensive rebound and after a turnover. That’s when it’s easiest to get down the court and create a good look in early offense.

Even teams that don’t run should be looking to run during these moments. Going into Thursday’s rematch against Utah, the Pelicans rank No. 20 in time to shot after a defensive rebound and No. 13 in time to shot after a turnover.

If Van Gundy is pushing the team to get organized and execute offense after a made shot, that’s one thing. But the fact that they’re walking it up after grabbing defensive boards or causing turnovers is inexcusable.

Ball and Williamson are at their best in transition. Forcing them to play in halfcourt sets all the time is taking away a major part of what makes them great basketball players.

There’s no need to run every single time you touch the ball like last year’s team did so often. But finding ways to get more early offense is the only way to loosen up this offense. It’ll give Zion more space to attack one-on-one matchups. It’ll create more opportunities for open 3s in transition. It’ll prevent Ball from just standing on the side and watching while Ingram and Williamson do everything on offense.

There has to be a concerted effort to open things up and allow this young, exciting team to actually play like a young and exciting team.