If the Minnesota Timberwolves keep the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, that top selection will likely come down to a choice between Georgia's Anthony Edwards and Illawarra's LaMelo Ball. Which of the two is the better pro prospect? Who else belongs in the conversation about the best guard in this draft class?
如果明尼苏达森林狼选择保留2020年选秀的状元，那么状元将会在佐治亚大学的安东尼-爱德华兹和伊拉瓦拉老鹰的拉梅洛-鲍尔之间选出。两者之中哪一位的预测前景更好呢?除此之外，本届选秀中最好的后卫还有谁?
Heading into draft night (Nov. 18 on ESPN), our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five guards, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
在选秀夜之前（11月8日ESPN直播）我们的专家乔纳森-吉沃尼, 迈克-施密茨和凯文-佩尔顿会排出他们心目中2020届Top5的后卫们，分析他们各自选择上的差异并选择一位关键的次轮后卫人选以供关注。
Whom do you have as the No. 1 guard in this class?
你会把谁选为本届的第一后卫？
Pelton: LaMelo Ball
佩尔顿：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Projecting Ball's future based on a dozen games in Australia is challenging, but not impossible. One takeaway from my work looking at translating player statistics from other leagues (including the NCAA) to the NBA is that a handful of metrics stabilize quickly and are indicators of talent, most notably usage rate.
根据鲍尔在澳大利亚几场比赛的表现就来预测他的未来发展非常具有挑战性，但也不是不可能。我在研究其他联盟(包括NCAA)的球员数据转换到NBA的过程中，意外得到的一个结论是，有一小撮数据指标能够迅速地稳定下来，作为对其天赋的一个参考，其中最明显的就是使用率。
To some extent, I'd compare Ball's season to Kyrie Irving's one campaign at Duke, which saw him play just 11 games due to injury. Despite that limited sample, Irving still shot near the top of my projections because of his high usage rate (27% of Duke's plays) and assist rate (7.5 per 100 plays).
在某种程度上，我会将鲍尔的本赛季与凯里-欧文在杜克大学大一赛季作比较，彼时他因为受伤只打了11场比赛。尽管样本有限，但欧文的命中率仍然被我放到了顶尖新秀那一档，就是因为他的高使用率(占杜克27%的回合)和助攻率(每100回合7.5次)。
In much the same way, Ball's usage (28.5%) and assist (9.2 per 100 plays) stood out in the National Basketball League. Unlike Irving, Ball wasn't competing against other top prospects aside from two meetings with fellow possible lottery pick RJ Hampton. At the same time, Ball was playing against much older and more experienced fringe NBA players such as Bryce Cotton and Casper Ware, who have improved from their college days.
同样的，鲍尔的使用率(28.5%)和助攻(每100回合9.2次)在NBL中也很突出。不过与欧文不同的是，除了两次和同样可能杀入乐透的RJ-汉普顿交过手外，鲍尔并没有对位过其他的顶尖新秀。但与此同时，鲍尔的对手是一些年纪更大、经验更丰富的NBA边缘球员，比如布莱斯-科顿和凯斯珀-威尔，较之大学时期，他们已经进步了很多。
When current Denver Nuggets senior analyst Layne Vashro compared the strength of leagues around the world in 2015, he found that the level of play in the NBL was higher than the ACC and other college conferences.
当现任的丹佛掘金高级分析师 Layne Vashro 在2015年对比世界各地不同联盟的实力时，他发现NBL的竞争水平要高于ACC和其他的大学联盟。
I wouldn't take the Ball-Irving comparison too far. Ball shot 25% on 80 attempts from 3-point range compared to 46% for Irving on 39 shots. Given his shot selection and far weaker free throw shooting, Ball is unlikely to come into the NBA nearly as effective a scorer as Irving was immediately. Still, the small sample of data we have on Ball points toward an elite prospect -- much as it did for Irving in a similar situation.
我不会太过纠缠于鲍尔-欧文的这组对比。鲍尔在三分线外出手了80次投篮，命中率25%；而欧文则是以46%的命中率出手了39次。考虑到他的投篮选择和更弱的罚球能力，鲍尔不太可能像欧文一样迅速适应NBA。尽管如此，我们所拥有的关于鲍尔的那些小数据样本都指向他会 成为一个顶尖的新秀——就像欧文在相似的情况下所表现出来的一样。
Givony: LaMelo Ball
吉沃尼：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Supersized playmakers are the queen on the chessboard in today's NBA. Ball handles on a string and can make every pass in the book, putting him in a rare class of shot-creators from day one. Given his late growth spurt, age (turned 19 two months ago) and unique path, I'm bearish on Ball's ability to improve defensively and as a shooter as well.
在当今NBA，身材高大的组织手相当于棋盘上的女王。鲍尔运球很自如，每次都可以按书传球，这让他从第一天起就成为了少有的，可以自主创造投篮机会的球员。考虑到他还是个晚熟的半成品、年龄(两个月前刚满19岁)和独特的节奏感，我不看好他能够提高自己的防守和投篮。
While my skepticism around the likelihood of Anthony Edwards reaching his (admittedly high) full potential plays a part in this pick, I'm a believer in Ball's talent and long-term outlook. His frame will need to continue to evolve, and whichever team picks him will certainly need to hand him the keys to the franchise over in order to maximize his strengths. Surely there will be growing pains early on in terms of turnovers, problematic shot selection and blown defensive assignments. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, but I understand why he's divisive. Part of that is due to his father's past antics, which I think are overblown by now.
虽然我对安东尼-爱德华兹在这个顺位上能否兑现全部的潜力(诚然他的上限很高)持怀疑态度，但我相信鲍尔的天赋和长远发展。他需要继续强化身体，而且无论哪支球队选了他，都必须给他足够的战术地位，以最大化他的优势。可以肯定的是，他早期在失误、投篮选择和防守的分配上都会有一些问题，这些都是成长的阵痛。我认为这利大于弊，但我也理解为什么他的评价会如此两极分化。有部分原因，是因为他父亲过去的种种滑稽行为，不过我觉得现在这些都被夸大了。
Ball is not only the top guard in the class, he's the top overall talent, and it's not particularly close in my mind.
鲍尔不仅是本届最好的后卫，而且有着最顶尖的天赋，在我看来，他是独一档的存在。
Schmitz: LaMelo Ball
施密茨：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Ball is the most talented prospect in this class and whom I would take No. 1, regardless of team need. You could put almost every prospect in this draft with the best trainers and coaches in the world for years and they still wouldn't be able to develop the type basketball instincts Ball possesses.
鲍尔是本届最有天赋的新秀，不考虑需求的话，我会把他排到状元。你可以把本届的所有新秀丢到世界上最好的教练喝训练师身边，但是他们仍然无法练出鲍尔所拥有的那种篮球本能。
When I asked Ball about certain passes during our film session, even he couldn't really explain what went into each read, he'd just credit his natural court vision. That style won't fit with every coach, but the fact that he's such a raw talent without having been on a more traditional development path is a huge part of what makes him so tantalizing. Even though he doesn't have great habits in terms of shot selection and defensive intensity, he's seen so many more possessions in his career than most players his age. That has absolutely played a role in his ability to make the game look so easy.
在我们进行的录像会议期间，当我问鲍尔关于某些特定的传球时，甚至连他自己都无法确切地解释他阅读到了什么，他只不过是自信于天生的球场视野罢了。这种风格并不适用于每一个教练，可实际上他也没有走过传统的发展道路，这也是他会如此诱人的一大重要原因。尽管他还没有投篮选择和防守强度方面的好习惯，但他在职业生涯中见证过远超大多数同年龄球员的比赛回合。这绝对是他可以让比赛看起来如此轻松一大原因。
While not the same caliber shooter, he reminds me a little bit of a 6-foot-7 Trae Young -- another confident, high-usage guard who faced questions about whether his style would translate to the NBA. Like Young, you have to build around Ball completely and live with some wild shots to get to his genius, but he's special enough to do it if surrounded by shooting and athletic defenders.
虽然不是同类型的射手，但他让我想起了身高6尺7的特雷-杨——另一个自信且高使用率的后卫，也面临着能否在进入NBA后继续延续自己的风格的问题。就像杨一样，你必须完全围绕鲍尔来建队，并且可以忍耐他的一些疯狂出手，以发挥他的天赋才行，但如果为他配置了一圈射手和运动能力劲爆的防守者时，他也特别到足以做到这一切。
Even so, it's hard for me to say with certainty what Ball will be in five years. I'd surely bet on the talent, but will he fight through rigorous seasons if he ends up in a losing situation? Plus, I actually see the gap between Ball and Edwards as much smaller than Jonathan and Kevin.
即便如此，我也很难肯定地说鲍尔在五年后会变成什么样。不过我肯定会把赌注押在他的天赋上，但，如果他到了一个输球的环境中，他会在那严苛的赛季里杀出一条血路吗？另外，实际上，我觉得鲍尔和爱德华兹之间的差距，要比乔纳森和凯文所想的小得多。
After Ball, who are your top five guards?
鲍尔之后，你们最的五位后卫排名是什么？
Givony: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) RJ Hampton, (5) Kira Lewis
吉沃尼: (2) 安东尼-爱德华兹, (3) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (4) RJ 汉普顿, (5) 小凯拉-刘易斯
This is a strong group, and if you told me that Killian Hayes, Tyrese Maxey and Cole Anthony would end up being among the five best guards to come out of the class, I wouldn't be surprised. Among these five, here are some things I think might help determine which players will reach their potential:
这是一个实力强大的分组，如果你告诉我海耶斯、马克西和安东尼会成为这届选秀中最好的五名后卫之一，我也不会感到惊讶。在这五人中，我认为以下几方面可能有助于确定哪些球员能够兑现自己的潜力:
Edwards: What kind of structure will he have around him? Will he play with consistent intensity? Can he overcome the lack of coaching and poor fundamentals he developed in high school? He has star talent with some real downside in the wrong situation.
爱德华兹:在他周围会布置什么样的体系呢?他能打出持续性的高强度表现吗?他能克服缺乏执教及高中时打下的基础很差的问题吗?他有全明星的天赋，但也有一些在错误的环境中产生的真实缺点。
Haliburton: A very situation-specific player. At his best, playing off other playmakers and making others better. How much talent will he have alongside him early in his career? He is a perfect do-it-all role player for a playoff team but maybe not what the worst teams in the NBA need.
哈利伯顿:一个非常吃球队环境的球员。最理想的情况下，他会和其他组织手搭档，让其他人变得更好。在他职业生涯的早期会与多少天赋搭档?对于季后赛球队来说，他是一个完美的全能型角色球员，但对于NBA最糟糕的球队来说，这些也许不是他们所需要的。
Hampton: A gifted athlete with terrific scoring instincts who played against low levels of competition early in his career and wasn't ready for the rigors of the pro game. He has to get tougher on both ends of the floor, improve his shooting and continue to grow his knowledge of the game. He has considerable talent and could be a major steal in the right situation.
汉普顿:一位天赋十足，运动能力劲爆的天生得分手，在职业生涯早期，他一直与低水平的对手交锋，尚未准备好面对职业比赛的严酷。他必须在攻防两端变得更强硬，提高他的投篮，并继续提高他对比赛的认知才行。他有着很高的天赋，在合适的环境下可能会成为本届一次重要的捡漏。
Lewis: Perhaps the fastest end-to-end player in the draft, but how much will his slight frame affect his ability to absorb contact inside the paint? Similarly, will he have issues holding his own defensively early in his career, considering his lack of physicality and at times inconsistent approach? Alabama was 34-31 (16-20 in SEC play) over the course of Lewis' college career. How much should that be held against him?
刘易斯:也许是选秀中全场奔袭速度最快的球员，但他瘦弱的身体会对他在油漆区吸收对抗的能力产生多大的影响?同样的，考虑到他缺乏身体对抗加之时不时没有定性的态度表现，在他职业生涯早期，他的防守端是否会出现问题?在刘易斯的大学生涯中，阿拉巴马大学取得了34胜31负(SEC内战则是16胜20负)的成绩。对此，他应该负多少责任?
Schmitz: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) Tyrese Maxey, (5) Kira Lewis
施密茨：(2) 安东尼-爱德华兹, (3) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (4) 泰雷斯-马克西, (5) 小凯拉-刘易斯
Although I'm not blind to questions about his defensive intensity, shot selection, shooting consistency and winning, Edwards is arguably the most physically impressive perimeter prospect I've ever evaluated. If he lands in the right situation, he could develop into one of the NBA's more devastating scorers.
尽管我实在无法忽视他在防守强度、投篮选择、投篮稳定性和带队胜场这些方面的问题，但爱德华兹无疑是我所评估过的外线新秀中身体天赋最令人印象深刻的那位。如果他加盟了一支合适的球队，那么他有机会成长为NBA中最具侵略性的得分手之一。
He wasn't in peak shape, but seeing Edwards' sheer size (6-foot-5), strength (230 pounds), length (6-foot-10), quickness and explosion at his Thursday pro day was eye-opening. According to P3, which has tested more than 700 players with NBA experience, Edwards generates more force than any other player the company has ever tested at his position. He ranks in the 99th percentile in terms of acceleration force and the 98th percentile in terms of deceleration force.
他还没有达到他的上限，但在周四的公开试训中，我们可以看到爱德华兹的身高(6尺5)、力量(230磅)、（臂展）长度(6尺10)、敏捷和爆发力，令人大开眼界。根据P3的消息，该机构已经为700多名有NBA经验的球员进行过测试，而爱德华兹比该机构所测试过的该位置的其他球员都更出色。他在加速和减速测试上分别超过了99%和98%的球员。
He's incredibly shifty for a player with his frame, and he should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor. The only other guard I can think of with that strength and ability to stop and start on a dime is James Harden. Edwards isn't that caliber of a shooter or passer, but in terms of how he can shed defenders to the rim or create space with step-backs, there are some similarities. I also think Edwards has far more shooting potential than most. His percentages were a product of shot selection more than anything else, and he shoots a really easy ball.
他有着该身板上难以置信的灵活性，应该可以随心所欲地来到场上的任意一个地方。我所能想到的另一个拥有这样的力量和能力的后卫是詹姆斯-哈登。虽然爱德华兹并不是一个出色的射手或传球者，但在如何摆脱防守冲击篮筐或者用后撤步创造出手空间方面，二者还是有一些相似之处。我也认为爱德华兹比大多数人要有更好的投射潜力。比起其他原因，他的投篮命中率更多的是投篮选择所造就的结果，而且他的投篮非常轻松写意。
If the team that drafts him can connect with him in a way that brings out more consistent fire and focus on both ends, I think Edwards could absolutely end up as the best player to come out of this class. As it stands now, I still give Ball the edge, but I think it's more a matter of preference. Do you want the powerful, explosive scorer or the finesse-based, 6-foot-7 playmaker?
如果选择他的球队能用某种方法与他联系，从而让他能够专注攻防两端并提供稳定的火力，那么我想爱德华兹绝对会成为本届最好的球员。现在看来，我仍然认为鲍尔要更胜一筹，但我认为这更多的是一个个人偏好问题。即你想要的到底是一位强大的，充满爆发力的得分手还是一位优秀的6尺7组织核心?
I dove more into Haliburton here and Maxey here.
我对哈利伯顿和马克西的研究要更多一些。
Pelton: (2) Tyrese Haliburton, (3) Anthony Edwards, (4) Killian Hayes, (5) RJ Hampton
佩尔顿：(2) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (3)安东尼-爱德华兹 , (4) 基利安-海斯, (5) RJ 汉普顿
After Ball, who is alone in the first tier, I have Haliburton and Edwards in my second tier of prospects for very different reasons.
鲍尔被我单独排在第一梯队中，而在他之后，我的第二梯队是哈利伯顿和爱德华兹，因为完全不同的理由。
Haliburton's college productivity bodes well for his NBA future. Despite playing most of his sophomore season at age 19, he projects better than 75% of NBA-bound point guards in five of the 10 skill-based stats that I consider for strengths and weaknesses. Although Haliburton is not a prototypical pick-and-roll point guard in the NBA, his catch-and-shoot ability should allow him to play next to a ball-dominant guard and make plays when the ball is swung to him on the weak side.
哈利伯顿的大学表现对他在NBA的未来而言是个好兆头。尽管他在19岁时就打了大部分的大二赛季，但在我用于参考优缺点的10个技能型数据中，其中的5个技能型数据表明，他预期会超过75%的NBA控卫。虽然哈利伯顿不是NBA中那种典型的挡拆控球型后卫，但他的接球投篮能力也许能让他和控球后卫一起搭档，当把球传给在弱侧接应的他时，也可以发挥作用。
Edwards has the physical tools that Haliburton lacks. Whether he can translate those into productivity remains a question. In particular, Edwards will have to dramatically improve on his 29% 3-point shooting in college. More concerning, Edwards was no better on catch-and-shoot attempts than those off the dribble, which suggests that shot selection isn't his problem. He also has to play with more consistent effort on defense. Those weaknesses have tripped up more talented prospects, but if Edwards can improve, he has star potential.
爱德华兹拥有哈利伯顿所缺乏的身体素质。他能否将这些转变为实际的表现仍然存在着问题。特别是，爱德华兹必须要大幅提高他大学时期惨淡的29%的三分命中率。更令人担忧的是，爱德华兹在接球投篮上的表现并不比运球后的出手要好，这表明，投篮选择并不是问题所在。他还必须在防守端更努力才行。这些弱点曾困死了许多更有天赋的人，但如果爱德华兹能够提高这些，那么他就有球星的潜质。
Hayes and Hampton are both in my fourth tier of prospects, with Hayes near the top of that group. If Hayes can make better decisions passing out of the pick-and-roll, his size, quickness and ability to shoot off the dribble could make him dangerous operating in space. There's more projection necessary with Hampton, but his NBL performance at least suggests that there is no reason to disbelieve scouts' assessment of his potential.
海斯和汉普顿都在我的第四梯队里，而海斯在这一梯队中名列前茅。如果海斯在挡拆中能做出更好的传球决策，那么他的身高、速度和运球的能力将会使他在空间充沛的时候变得危险。对汉普顿的预测则更有必要，但他在NBL的表现至少能够证明，我们没有理由去怀疑球探对他潜力的评估。
Which projected second-round guard do you find most intriguing?
在预测为次轮的后卫里，你最感兴趣的是哪位球员？
Schmitz: Payton Pritchard
施密茨：佩顿-普理查德
Pritchard is the classic hiding-in-plain-sight sleeper who is coming off a monster senior season (20-4-5) yet gets dinged because of his age and mediocre measurables. But I'll buy stock in Pritchard's logo range, efficient handle, improved finishing and underrated defensive toughness.
普里查德是一个典型的灯下黑型黑马球员，刚刚打出了一个怪物般的的大四赛季(20-4-5)，却因为年龄和平庸的体测数据而被看低。但我会买账他的超远射程，高效的控球，提升的终结能力和被低估的防守韧性。
Pritchard is one of only four players in our top 100 rankings to make more than 85 3s at better than 40% last season. His shooting and sturdy frame make him the best-equipped to fit in multiguard lineups among the veteran guards projected in the Nos. 25-35 range.
在我们的Top100排名中，上赛季三分球出手超过85次的球员里，只有4人的命中率超过了40%，而普里查德就是其中之一。他的投篮能力和强健的体魄使他成为顺位在25-35之间的老后卫中最适合搭档多后卫阵容的球员。
Givony: Cassius Winston
吉沃尼：卡修斯-温斯顿
Winston has long been projected as a late first-round pick in our mock drafts, but lately, I've been hearing that teams tend to favor guards such as Malachi Flynn, Tyrell Terry and perhaps Tre Jones. GMs apparently aren't in love with Winston's average body, poor defense, OK athleticism and so-so measurements (6-foot-3 wingspan and a hair under 6-foot-2 in shoes).
在我们的模拟选秀中，温斯顿一直被认为是首轮选秀末的前景，但最近，我听说球队们更青睐马拉奇-弗林、泰雷尔-特里，或许还有特雷-琼斯。经理们显然不喜欢温斯顿平庸的身体、糟糕的防守、将将OK的运动能力和糟糕的尺寸(臂展6英尺3，穿鞋时身高甚至不到6尺2)。
I think that's a mistake. He's one of the best pick-and-roll players in this draft and an elite shooter (career 43% from 3 and 85% from the line). There's a reason Michigan State rarely lost the past three seasons (83-21). Winston is ready to play in an NBA game tomorrow. I've learned over the years not to discount guys such as this.
但我认为这是个错误。他是本届选秀中最好的挡拆手之一，也是一名精英级别的射手(职业生涯的三分命中率为43%，罚球命中率85%)。密歇根州立大学在过去三个赛季鲜有输球(83胜21负)是有原因的。温斯顿他已经准备好参加明天的NBA比赛了。经过这些年，我已经学会不要去轻视这样的球员。
Pelton: Malachi Flynn
佩尔顿：马拉奇-弗林
As good as Flynn was in two seasons at Washington State (including scoring a game winner to beat Washington and fellow freshman Markelle Fultz in Seattle), I didn't envision him as a future NBA player until after his transfer to San Diego State.
在华盛顿州大的两个赛季里，弗林的表现也是一样的出色(包括在西雅图拿下了一场内战胜利，击败了华盛顿大学和同为大一新生的马克尔-富尔茨)，但在他转会到圣地亚哥州立大学之前，我并不认为他在未来能够成为一名NBA球员。
In one season with the Aztecs, Flynn emerged as perhaps the nation's premier pick-and-roll threat. Per Synergy Sports tracking, the 1.16 points per play that San Diego State averaged on pick-and-rolls on which Flynn shot, passed to a teammate who shot or turned the ball over was the most among players who ran at least 250 such pick-and-rolls in Division I. Additionally, Flynn one-upped Haliburton with top-quartile projections for a point guard in six of the 10 skill-based stats, tied for the most "strengths" of any prospect in the draft.
在与阿兹特克人合作的一个赛季中，弗林可能成为了全美最出色的挡拆威胁。根据Synergy Sports的进攻数据,圣地亚哥州大平均每次挡拆回合，依靠弗林投篮能够拿到1.16分；而弗林传球给队友的次数，无论他会投篮还是失误，在一级联盟至少执行过250次挡拆的球员中则是最高的。此外,弗林在10项技能型数据中，力压哈里伯顿，拿到了6项数据进入控卫球员前25%水准的成绩,并列成为本届选秀中最“占优势”的新秀。
Listed at 6-foot-1, Flynn is undersized for an NBA point guard. He'll struggle against the most physical opponents, but he competes at the defensive end and boasts a high steal rate. If Flynn's pick-and-roll ability translates to the NBA, he'll find his way on the court sooner rather than later.
对于NBA的控球后卫来说，身高仅有6尺1的弗林有点undersize。他在面对身体条件出色的对手时表现会很挣扎，但是他在防守端充满竞争性，并且有着很高的抢断率。如果弗林的挡拆能力能够转换到NBA的话，那么他将很快就在场上找到自己的一席之地。
If the Minnesota Timberwolves keep the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, that top selection will likely come down to a choice between Georgia's Anthony Edwards and Illawarra's LaMelo Ball. Which of the two is the better pro prospect? Who else belongs in the conversation about the best guard in this draft class?
如果明尼苏达森林狼选择保留2020年选秀的状元，那么状元将会在佐治亚大学的安东尼-爱德华兹和伊拉瓦拉老鹰的拉梅洛-鲍尔之间选出。两者之中哪一位的预测前景更好呢?除此之外，本届选秀中最好的后卫还有谁?
Heading into draft night (Nov. 18 on ESPN), our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five guards, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
在选秀夜之前（11月8日ESPN直播）我们的专家乔纳森-吉沃尼, 迈克-施密茨和凯文-佩尔顿会排出他们心目中2020届Top5的后卫们，分析他们各自选择上的差异并选择一位关键的次轮后卫人选以供关注。
Whom do you have as the No. 1 guard in this class?
你会把谁选为本届的第一后卫？
Pelton: LaMelo Ball
佩尔顿：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Projecting Ball's future based on a dozen games in Australia is challenging, but not impossible. One takeaway from my work looking at translating player statistics from other leagues (including the NCAA) to the NBA is that a handful of metrics stabilize quickly and are indicators of talent, most notably usage rate.
根据鲍尔在澳大利亚几场比赛的表现就来预测他的未来发展非常具有挑战性，但也不是不可能。我在研究其他联盟(包括NCAA)的球员数据转换到NBA的过程中，意外得到的一个结论是，有一小撮数据指标能够迅速地稳定下来，作为对其天赋的一个参考，其中最明显的就是使用率。
To some extent, I'd compare Ball's season to Kyrie Irving's one campaign at Duke, which saw him play just 11 games due to injury. Despite that limited sample, Irving still shot near the top of my projections because of his high usage rate (27% of Duke's plays) and assist rate (7.5 per 100 plays).
在某种程度上，我会将鲍尔的本赛季与凯里-欧文在杜克大学大一赛季作比较，彼时他因为受伤只打了11场比赛。尽管样本有限，但欧文的命中率仍然被我放到了顶尖新秀那一档，就是因为他的高使用率(占杜克27%的回合)和助攻率(每100回合7.5次)。
In much the same way, Ball's usage (28.5%) and assist (9.2 per 100 plays) stood out in the National Basketball League. Unlike Irving, Ball wasn't competing against other top prospects aside from two meetings with fellow possible lottery pick RJ Hampton. At the same time, Ball was playing against much older and more experienced fringe NBA players such as Bryce Cotton and Casper Ware, who have improved from their college days.
同样的，鲍尔的使用率(28.5%)和助攻(每100回合9.2次)在NBL中也很突出。不过与欧文不同的是，除了两次和同样可能杀入乐透的RJ-汉普顿交过手外，鲍尔并没有对位过其他的顶尖新秀。但与此同时，鲍尔的对手是一些年纪更大、经验更丰富的NBA边缘球员，比如布莱斯-科顿和凯斯珀-威尔，较之大学时期，他们已经进步了很多。
When current Denver Nuggets senior analyst Layne Vashro compared the strength of leagues around the world in 2015, he found that the level of play in the NBL was higher than the ACC and other college conferences.
当现任的丹佛掘金高级分析师 Layne Vashro 在2015年对比世界各地不同联盟的实力时，他发现NBL的竞争水平要高于ACC和其他的大学联盟。
I wouldn't take the Ball-Irving comparison too far. Ball shot 25% on 80 attempts from 3-point range compared to 46% for Irving on 39 shots. Given his shot selection and far weaker free throw shooting, Ball is unlikely to come into the NBA nearly as effective a scorer as Irving was immediately. Still, the small sample of data we have on Ball points toward an elite prospect -- much as it did for Irving in a similar situation.
我不会太过纠缠于鲍尔-欧文的这组对比。鲍尔在三分线外出手了80次投篮，命中率25%；而欧文则是以46%的命中率出手了39次。考虑到他的投篮选择和更弱的罚球能力，鲍尔不太可能像欧文一样迅速适应NBA。尽管如此，我们所拥有的关于鲍尔的那些小数据样本都指向他会 成为一个顶尖的新秀——就像欧文在相似的情况下所表现出来的一样。
Givony: LaMelo Ball
吉沃尼：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Supersized playmakers are the queen on the chessboard in today's NBA. Ball handles on a string and can make every pass in the book, putting him in a rare class of shot-creators from day one. Given his late growth spurt, age (turned 19 two months ago) and unique path, I'm bearish on Ball's ability to improve defensively and as a shooter as well.
在当今NBA，身材高大的组织手相当于棋盘上的女王。鲍尔运球很自如，每次都可以按书传球，这让他从第一天起就成为了少有的，可以自主创造投篮机会的球员。考虑到他还是个晚熟的半成品、年龄(两个月前刚满19岁)和独特的节奏感，我不看好他能够提高自己的防守和投篮。
While my skepticism around the likelihood of Anthony Edwards reaching his (admittedly high) full potential plays a part in this pick, I'm a believer in Ball's talent and long-term outlook. His frame will need to continue to evolve, and whichever team picks him will certainly need to hand him the keys to the franchise over in order to maximize his strengths. Surely there will be growing pains early on in terms of turnovers, problematic shot selection and blown defensive assignments. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, but I understand why he's divisive. Part of that is due to his father's past antics, which I think are overblown by now.
虽然我对安东尼-爱德华兹在这个顺位上能否兑现全部的潜力(诚然他的上限很高)持怀疑态度，但我相信鲍尔的天赋和长远发展。他需要继续强化身体，而且无论哪支球队选了他，都必须给他足够的战术地位，以最大化他的优势。可以肯定的是，他早期在失误、投篮选择和防守的分配上都会有一些问题，这些都是成长的阵痛。我认为这利大于弊，但我也理解为什么他的评价会如此两极分化。有部分原因，是因为他父亲过去的种种滑稽行为，不过我觉得现在这些都被夸大了。
Ball is not only the top guard in the class, he's the top overall talent, and it's not particularly close in my mind.
鲍尔不仅是本届最好的后卫，而且有着最顶尖的天赋，在我看来，他是独一档的存在。
Schmitz: LaMelo Ball
施密茨：拉梅洛-鲍尔
Ball is the most talented prospect in this class and whom I would take No. 1, regardless of team need. You could put almost every prospect in this draft with the best trainers and coaches in the world for years and they still wouldn't be able to develop the type basketball instincts Ball possesses.
鲍尔是本届最有天赋的新秀，不考虑需求的话，我会把他排到状元。你可以把本届的所有新秀丢到世界上最好的教练喝训练师身边，但是他们仍然无法练出鲍尔所拥有的那种篮球本能。
When I asked Ball about certain passes during our film session, even he couldn't really explain what went into each read, he'd just credit his natural court vision. That style won't fit with every coach, but the fact that he's such a raw talent without having been on a more traditional development path is a huge part of what makes him so tantalizing. Even though he doesn't have great habits in terms of shot selection and defensive intensity, he's seen so many more possessions in his career than most players his age. That has absolutely played a role in his ability to make the game look so easy.
在我们进行的录像会议期间，当我问鲍尔关于某些特定的传球时，甚至连他自己都无法确切地解释他阅读到了什么，他只不过是自信于天生的球场视野罢了。这种风格并不适用于每一个教练，可实际上他也没有走过传统的发展道路，这也是他会如此诱人的一大重要原因。尽管他还没有投篮选择和防守强度方面的好习惯，但他在职业生涯中见证过远超大多数同年龄球员的比赛回合。这绝对是他可以让比赛看起来如此轻松一大原因。
While not the same caliber shooter, he reminds me a little bit of a 6-foot-7 Trae Young -- another confident, high-usage guard who faced questions about whether his style would translate to the NBA. Like Young, you have to build around Ball completely and live with some wild shots to get to his genius, but he's special enough to do it if surrounded by shooting and athletic defenders.
虽然不是同类型的射手，但他让我想起了身高6尺7的特雷-杨——另一个自信且高使用率的后卫，也面临着能否在进入NBA后继续延续自己的风格的问题。就像杨一样，你必须完全围绕鲍尔来建队，并且可以忍耐他的一些疯狂出手，以发挥他的天赋才行，但如果为他配置了一圈射手和运动能力劲爆的防守者时，他也特别到足以做到这一切。
Even so, it's hard for me to say with certainty what Ball will be in five years. I'd surely bet on the talent, but will he fight through rigorous seasons if he ends up in a losing situation? Plus, I actually see the gap between Ball and Edwards as much smaller than Jonathan and Kevin.
即便如此，我也很难肯定地说鲍尔在五年后会变成什么样。不过我肯定会把赌注押在他的天赋上，但，如果他到了一个输球的环境中，他会在那严苛的赛季里杀出一条血路吗？另外，实际上，我觉得鲍尔和爱德华兹之间的差距，要比乔纳森和凯文所想的小得多。
After Ball, who are your top five guards?
鲍尔之后，你们最的五位后卫排名是什么？
Givony: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) RJ Hampton, (5) Kira Lewis
吉沃尼: (2) 安东尼-爱德华兹, (3) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (4) RJ 汉普顿, (5) 小凯拉-刘易斯
This is a strong group, and if you told me that Killian Hayes, Tyrese Maxey and Cole Anthony would end up being among the five best guards to come out of the class, I wouldn't be surprised. Among these five, here are some things I think might help determine which players will reach their potential:
这是一个实力强大的分组，如果你告诉我海耶斯、马克西和安东尼会成为这届选秀中最好的五名后卫之一，我也不会感到惊讶。在这五人中，我认为以下几方面可能有助于确定哪些球员能够兑现自己的潜力:
Edwards: What kind of structure will he have around him? Will he play with consistent intensity? Can he overcome the lack of coaching and poor fundamentals he developed in high school? He has star talent with some real downside in the wrong situation.
爱德华兹:在他周围会布置什么样的体系呢?他能打出持续性的高强度表现吗?他能克服缺乏执教及高中时打下的基础很差的问题吗?他有全明星的天赋，但也有一些在错误的环境中产生的真实缺点。
Haliburton: A very situation-specific player. At his best, playing off other playmakers and making others better. How much talent will he have alongside him early in his career? He is a perfect do-it-all role player for a playoff team but maybe not what the worst teams in the NBA need.
哈利伯顿:一个非常吃球队环境的球员。最理想的情况下，他会和其他组织手搭档，让其他人变得更好。在他职业生涯的早期会与多少天赋搭档?对于季后赛球队来说，他是一个完美的全能型角色球员，但对于NBA最糟糕的球队来说，这些也许不是他们所需要的。
Hampton: A gifted athlete with terrific scoring instincts who played against low levels of competition early in his career and wasn't ready for the rigors of the pro game. He has to get tougher on both ends of the floor, improve his shooting and continue to grow his knowledge of the game. He has considerable talent and could be a major steal in the right situation.
汉普顿:一位天赋十足，运动能力劲爆的天生得分手，在职业生涯早期，他一直与低水平的对手交锋，尚未准备好面对职业比赛的严酷。他必须在攻防两端变得更强硬，提高他的投篮，并继续提高他对比赛的认知才行。他有着很高的天赋，在合适的环境下可能会成为本届一次重要的捡漏。
Lewis: Perhaps the fastest end-to-end player in the draft, but how much will his slight frame affect his ability to absorb contact inside the paint? Similarly, will he have issues holding his own defensively early in his career, considering his lack of physicality and at times inconsistent approach? Alabama was 34-31 (16-20 in SEC play) over the course of Lewis' college career. How much should that be held against him?
刘易斯:也许是选秀中全场奔袭速度最快的球员，但他瘦弱的身体会对他在油漆区吸收对抗的能力产生多大的影响?同样的，考虑到他缺乏身体对抗加之时不时没有定性的态度表现，在他职业生涯早期，他的防守端是否会出现问题?在刘易斯的大学生涯中，阿拉巴马大学取得了34胜31负(SEC内战则是16胜20负)的成绩。对此，他应该负多少责任?
Schmitz: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) Tyrese Maxey, (5) Kira Lewis
施密茨：(2) 安东尼-爱德华兹, (3) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (4) 泰雷斯-马克西, (5) 小凯拉-刘易斯
Although I'm not blind to questions about his defensive intensity, shot selection, shooting consistency and winning, Edwards is arguably the most physically impressive perimeter prospect I've ever evaluated. If he lands in the right situation, he could develop into one of the NBA's more devastating scorers.
尽管我实在无法忽视他在防守强度、投篮选择、投篮稳定性和带队胜场这些方面的问题，但爱德华兹无疑是我所评估过的外线新秀中身体天赋最令人印象深刻的那位。如果他加盟了一支合适的球队，那么他有机会成长为NBA中最具侵略性的得分手之一。
He wasn't in peak shape, but seeing Edwards' sheer size (6-foot-5), strength (230 pounds), length (6-foot-10), quickness and explosion at his Thursday pro day was eye-opening. According to P3, which has tested more than 700 players with NBA experience, Edwards generates more force than any other player the company has ever tested at his position. He ranks in the 99th percentile in terms of acceleration force and the 98th percentile in terms of deceleration force.
他还没有达到他的上限，但在周四的公开试训中，我们可以看到爱德华兹的身高(6尺5)、力量(230磅)、（臂展）长度(6尺10)、敏捷和爆发力，令人大开眼界。根据P3的消息，该机构已经为700多名有NBA经验的球员进行过测试，而爱德华兹比该机构所测试过的该位置的其他球员都更出色。他在加速和减速测试上分别超过了99%和98%的球员。
He's incredibly shifty for a player with his frame, and he should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor. The only other guard I can think of with that strength and ability to stop and start on a dime is James Harden. Edwards isn't that caliber of a shooter or passer, but in terms of how he can shed defenders to the rim or create space with step-backs, there are some similarities. I also think Edwards has far more shooting potential than most. His percentages were a product of shot selection more than anything else, and he shoots a really easy ball.
他有着该身板上难以置信的灵活性，应该可以随心所欲地来到场上的任意一个地方。我所能想到的另一个拥有这样的力量和能力的后卫是詹姆斯-哈登。虽然爱德华兹并不是一个出色的射手或传球者，但在如何摆脱防守冲击篮筐或者用后撤步创造出手空间方面，二者还是有一些相似之处。我也认为爱德华兹比大多数人要有更好的投射潜力。比起其他原因，他的投篮命中率更多的是投篮选择所造就的结果，而且他的投篮非常轻松写意。
If the team that drafts him can connect with him in a way that brings out more consistent fire and focus on both ends, I think Edwards could absolutely end up as the best player to come out of this class. As it stands now, I still give Ball the edge, but I think it's more a matter of preference. Do you want the powerful, explosive scorer or the finesse-based, 6-foot-7 playmaker?
如果选择他的球队能用某种方法与他联系，从而让他能够专注攻防两端并提供稳定的火力，那么我想爱德华兹绝对会成为本届最好的球员。现在看来，我仍然认为鲍尔要更胜一筹，但我认为这更多的是一个个人偏好问题。即你想要的到底是一位强大的，充满爆发力的得分手还是一位优秀的6尺7组织核心?
I dove more into Haliburton here and Maxey here.
我对哈利伯顿和马克西的研究要更多一些。
Pelton: (2) Tyrese Haliburton, (3) Anthony Edwards, (4) Killian Hayes, (5) RJ Hampton
佩尔顿：(2) 泰雷斯-哈里伯顿, (3)安东尼-爱德华兹 , (4) 基利安-海斯, (5) RJ 汉普顿
After Ball, who is alone in the first tier, I have Haliburton and Edwards in my second tier of prospects for very different reasons.
鲍尔被我单独排在第一梯队中，而在他之后，我的第二梯队是哈利伯顿和爱德华兹，因为完全不同的理由。
Haliburton's college productivity bodes well for his NBA future. Despite playing most of his sophomore season at age 19, he projects better than 75% of NBA-bound point guards in five of the 10 skill-based stats that I consider for strengths and weaknesses. Although Haliburton is not a prototypical pick-and-roll point guard in the NBA, his catch-and-shoot ability should allow him to play next to a ball-dominant guard and make plays when the ball is swung to him on the weak side.
哈利伯顿的大学表现对他在NBA的未来而言是个好兆头。尽管他在19岁时就打了大部分的大二赛季，但在我用于参考优缺点的10个技能型数据中，其中的5个技能型数据表明，他预期会超过75%的NBA控卫。虽然哈利伯顿不是NBA中那种典型的挡拆控球型后卫，但他的接球投篮能力也许能让他和控球后卫一起搭档，当把球传给在弱侧接应的他时，也可以发挥作用。
Edwards has the physical tools that Haliburton lacks. Whether he can translate those into productivity remains a question. In particular, Edwards will have to dramatically improve on his 29% 3-point shooting in college. More concerning, Edwards was no better on catch-and-shoot attempts than those off the dribble, which suggests that shot selection isn't his problem. He also has to play with more consistent effort on defense. Those weaknesses have tripped up more talented prospects, but if Edwards can improve, he has star potential.
爱德华兹拥有哈利伯顿所缺乏的身体素质。他能否将这些转变为实际的表现仍然存在着问题。特别是，爱德华兹必须要大幅提高他大学时期惨淡的29%的三分命中率。更令人担忧的是，爱德华兹在接球投篮上的表现并不比运球后的出手要好，这表明，投篮选择并不是问题所在。他还必须在防守端更努力才行。这些弱点曾困死了许多更有天赋的人，但如果爱德华兹能够提高这些，那么他就有球星的潜质。
Hayes and Hampton are both in my fourth tier of prospects, with Hayes near the top of that group. If Hayes can make better decisions passing out of the pick-and-roll, his size, quickness and ability to shoot off the dribble could make him dangerous operating in space. There's more projection necessary with Hampton, but his NBL performance at least suggests that there is no reason to disbelieve scouts' assessment of his potential.
海斯和汉普顿都在我的第四梯队里，而海斯在这一梯队中名列前茅。如果海斯在挡拆中能做出更好的传球决策，那么他的身高、速度和运球的能力将会使他在空间充沛的时候变得危险。对汉普顿的预测则更有必要，但他在NBL的表现至少能够证明，我们没有理由去怀疑球探对他潜力的评估。
Which projected second-round guard do you find most intriguing?
在预测为次轮的后卫里，你最感兴趣的是哪位球员？
Schmitz: Payton Pritchard
施密茨：佩顿-普理查德
Pritchard is the classic hiding-in-plain-sight sleeper who is coming off a monster senior season (20-4-5) yet gets dinged because of his age and mediocre measurables. But I'll buy stock in Pritchard's logo range, efficient handle, improved finishing and underrated defensive toughness.
普里查德是一个典型的灯下黑型黑马球员，刚刚打出了一个怪物般的的大四赛季(20-4-5)，却因为年龄和平庸的体测数据而被看低。但我会买账他的超远射程，高效的控球，提升的终结能力和被低估的防守韧性。
Pritchard is one of only four players in our top 100 rankings to make more than 85 3s at better than 40% last season. His shooting and sturdy frame make him the best-equipped to fit in multiguard lineups among the veteran guards projected in the Nos. 25-35 range.
在我们的Top100排名中，上赛季三分球出手超过85次的球员里，只有4人的命中率超过了40%，而普里查德就是其中之一。他的投篮能力和强健的体魄使他成为顺位在25-35之间的老后卫中最适合搭档多后卫阵容的球员。
Givony: Cassius Winston
吉沃尼：卡修斯-温斯顿
Winston has long been projected as a late first-round pick in our mock drafts, but lately, I've been hearing that teams tend to favor guards such as Malachi Flynn, Tyrell Terry and perhaps Tre Jones. GMs apparently aren't in love with Winston's average body, poor defense, OK athleticism and so-so measurements (6-foot-3 wingspan and a hair under 6-foot-2 in shoes).
在我们的模拟选秀中，温斯顿一直被认为是首轮选秀末的前景，但最近，我听说球队们更青睐马拉奇-弗林、泰雷尔-特里，或许还有特雷-琼斯。经理们显然不喜欢温斯顿平庸的身体、糟糕的防守、将将OK的运动能力和糟糕的尺寸(臂展6英尺3，穿鞋时身高甚至不到6尺2)。
I think that's a mistake. He's one of the best pick-and-roll players in this draft and an elite shooter (career 43% from 3 and 85% from the line). There's a reason Michigan State rarely lost the past three seasons (83-21). Winston is ready to play in an NBA game tomorrow. I've learned over the years not to discount guys such as this.
但我认为这是个错误。他是本届选秀中最好的挡拆手之一，也是一名精英级别的射手(职业生涯的三分命中率为43%，罚球命中率85%)。密歇根州立大学在过去三个赛季鲜有输球(83胜21负)是有原因的。温斯顿他已经准备好参加明天的NBA比赛了。经过这些年，我已经学会不要去轻视这样的球员。
Pelton: Malachi Flynn
佩尔顿：马拉奇-弗林
As good as Flynn was in two seasons at Washington State (including scoring a game winner to beat Washington and fellow freshman Markelle Fultz in Seattle), I didn't envision him as a future NBA player until after his transfer to San Diego State.
在华盛顿州大的两个赛季里，弗林的表现也是一样的出色(包括在西雅图拿下了一场内战胜利，击败了华盛顿大学和同为大一新生的马克尔-富尔茨)，但在他转会到圣地亚哥州立大学之前，我并不认为他在未来能够成为一名NBA球员。
In one season with the Aztecs, Flynn emerged as perhaps the nation's premier pick-and-roll threat. Per Synergy Sports tracking, the 1.16 points per play that San Diego State averaged on pick-and-rolls on which Flynn shot, passed to a teammate who shot or turned the ball over was the most among players who ran at least 250 such pick-and-rolls in Division I. Additionally, Flynn one-upped Haliburton with top-quartile projections for a point guard in six of the 10 skill-based stats, tied for the most "strengths" of any prospect in the draft.
在与阿兹特克人合作的一个赛季中，弗林可能成为了全美最出色的挡拆威胁。根据Synergy Sports的进攻数据,圣地亚哥州大平均每次挡拆回合，依靠弗林投篮能够拿到1.16分；而弗林传球给队友的次数，无论他会投篮还是失误，在一级联盟至少执行过250次挡拆的球员中则是最高的。此外,弗林在10项技能型数据中，力压哈里伯顿，拿到了6项数据进入控卫球员前25%水准的成绩,并列成为本届选秀中最“占优势”的新秀。
Listed at 6-foot-1, Flynn is undersized for an NBA point guard. He'll struggle against the most physical opponents, but he competes at the defensive end and boasts a high steal rate. If Flynn's pick-and-roll ability translates to the NBA, he'll find his way on the court sooner rather than later.
对于NBA的控球后卫来说，身高仅有6尺1的弗林有点undersize。他在面对身体条件出色的对手时表现会很挣扎，但是他在防守端充满竞争性，并且有着很高的抢断率。如果弗林的挡拆能力能够转换到NBA的话，那么他将很快就在场上找到自己的一席之地。
