If the Minnesota Timberwolves keep the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, that top selection will likely come down to a choice between Georgia's Anthony Edwards and Illawarra's LaMelo Ball. Which of the two is the better pro prospect? Who else belongs in the conversation about the best guard in this draft class?
Heading into draft night (Nov. 18 on ESPN), our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five guards, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
Whom do you have as the No. 1 guard in this class?
Pelton: LaMelo Ball
Projecting Ball's future based on a dozen games in Australia is challenging, but not impossible. One takeaway from my work looking at translating player statistics from other leagues (including the NCAA) to the NBA is that a handful of metrics stabilize quickly and are indicators of talent, most notably usage rate.
To some extent, I'd compare Ball's season to Kyrie Irving's one campaign at Duke, which saw him play just 11 games due to injury. Despite that limited sample, Irving still shot near the top of my projections because of his high usage rate (27% of Duke's plays) and assist rate (7.5 per 100 plays).
In much the same way, Ball's usage (28.5%) and assist (9.2 per 100 plays) stood out in the National Basketball League. Unlike Irving, Ball wasn't competing against other top prospects aside from two meetings with fellow possible lottery pick RJ Hampton. At the same time, Ball was playing against much older and more experienced fringe NBA players such as Bryce Cotton and Casper Ware, who have improved from their college days.
When current Denver Nuggets senior analyst Layne Vashro compared the strength of leagues around the world in 2015, he found that the level of play in the NBL was higher than the ACC and other college conferences.
I wouldn't take the Ball-Irving comparison too far. Ball shot 25% on 80 attempts from 3-point range compared to 46% for Irving on 39 shots. Given his shot selection and far weaker free throw shooting, Ball is unlikely to come into the NBA nearly as effective a scorer as Irving was immediately. Still, the small sample of data we have on Ball points toward an elite prospect -- much as it did for Irving in a similar situation.
Givony: LaMelo Ball
Supersized playmakers are the queen on the chessboard in today's NBA. Ball handles on a string and can make every pass in the book, putting him in a rare class of shot-creators from day one. Given his late growth spurt, age (turned 19 two months ago) and unique path, I'm bearish on Ball's ability to improve defensively and as a shooter as well.
While my skepticism around the likelihood of Anthony Edwards reaching his (admittedly high) full potential plays a part in this pick, I'm a believer in Ball's talent and long-term outlook. His frame will need to continue to evolve, and whichever team picks him will certainly need to hand him the keys to the franchise over in order to maximize his strengths. Surely there will be growing pains early on in terms of turnovers, problematic shot selection and blown defensive assignments. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, but I understand why he's divisive. Part of that is due to his father's past antics, which I think are overblown by now.
Ball is not only the top guard in the class, he's the top overall talent, and it's not particularly close in my mind.
Schmitz: LaMelo Ball
Ball is the most talented prospect in this class and whom I would take No. 1, regardless of team need. You could put almost every prospect in this draft with the best trainers and coaches in the world for years and they still wouldn't be able to develop the type basketball instincts Ball possesses.
When I asked Ball about certain passes during our film session, even he couldn't really explain what went into each read, he'd just credit his natural court vision. That style won't fit with every coach, but the fact that he's such a raw talent without having been on a more traditional development path is a huge part of what makes him so tantalizing. Even though he doesn't have great habits in terms of shot selection and defensive intensity, he's seen so many more possessions in his career than most players his age. That has absolutely played a role in his ability to make the game look so easy.
While not the same caliber shooter, he reminds me a little bit of a 6-foot-7 Trae Young -- another confident, high-usage guard who faced questions about whether his style would translate to the NBA. Like Young, you have to build around Ball completely and live with some wild shots to get to his genius, but he's special enough to do it if surrounded by shooting and athletic defenders.
Even so, it's hard for me to say with certainty what Ball will be in five years. I'd surely bet on the talent, but will he fight through rigorous seasons if he ends up in a losing situation? Plus, I actually see the gap between Ball and Edwards as much smaller than Jonathan and Kevin.
After Ball, who are your top five guards?
Givony: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) RJ Hampton, (5) Kira Lewis
This is a strong group, and if you told me that Killian Hayes, Tyrese Maxey and Cole Anthony would end up being among the five best guards to come out of the class, I wouldn't be surprised. Among these five, here are some things I think might help determine which players will reach their potential:
Edwards: What kind of structure will he have around him? Will he play with consistent intensity? Can he overcome the lack of coaching and poor fundamentals he developed in high school? He has star talent with some real downside in the wrong situation.
Haliburton: A very situation-specific player. At his best, playing off other playmakers and making others better. How much talent will he have alongside him early in his career? He is a perfect do-it-all role player for a playoff team but maybe not what the worst teams in the NBA need.
Hampton: A gifted athlete with terrific scoring instincts who played against low levels of competition early in his career and wasn't ready for the rigors of the pro game. He has to get tougher on both ends of the floor, improve his shooting and continue to grow his knowledge of the game. He has considerable talent and could be a major steal in the right situation.
Lewis: Perhaps the fastest end-to-end player in the draft, but how much will his slight frame affect his ability to absorb contact inside the paint? Similarly, will he have issues holding his own defensively early in his career, considering his lack of physicality and at times inconsistent approach? Alabama was 34-31 (16-20 in SEC play) over the course of Lewis' college career. How much should that be held against him?
Schmitz: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) Tyrese Maxey, (5) Kira Lewis
Although I'm not blind to questions about his defensive intensity, shot selection, shooting consistency and winning, Edwards is arguably the most physically impressive perimeter prospect I've ever evaluated. If he lands in the right situation, he could develop into one of the NBA's more devastating scorers.
He wasn't in peak shape, but seeing Edwards' sheer size (6-foot-5), strength (230 pounds), length (6-foot-10), quickness and explosion at his Thursday pro day was eye-opening. According to P3, which has tested more than 700 players with NBA experience, Edwards generates more force than any other player the company has ever tested at his position. He ranks in the 99th percentile in terms of acceleration force and the 98th percentile in terms of deceleration force.
He's incredibly shifty for a player with his frame, and he should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor. The only other guard I can think of with that strength and ability to stop and start on a dime is James Harden. Edwards isn't that caliber of a shooter or passer, but in terms of how he can shed defenders to the rim or create space with step-backs, there are some similarities. I also think Edwards has far more shooting potential than most. His percentages were a product of shot selection more than anything else, and he shoots a really easy ball.
If the team that drafts him can connect with him in a way that brings out more consistent fire and focus on both ends, I think Edwards could absolutely end up as the best player to come out of this class. As it stands now, I still give Ball the edge, but I think it's more a matter of preference. Do you want the powerful, explosive scorer or the finesse-based, 6-foot-7 playmaker?
I dove more into Haliburton here and Maxey here.
Pelton: (2) Tyrese Haliburton, (3) Anthony Edwards, (4) Killian Hayes, (5) RJ Hampton
After Ball, who is alone in the first tier, I have Haliburton and Edwards in my second tier of prospects for very different reasons.
Haliburton's college productivity bodes well for his NBA future. Despite playing most of his sophomore season at age 19, he projects better than 75% of NBA-bound point guards in five of the 10 skill-based stats that I consider for strengths and weaknesses. Although Haliburton is not a prototypical pick-and-roll point guard in the NBA, his catch-and-shoot ability should allow him to play next to a ball-dominant guard and make plays when the ball is swung to him on the weak side.
Edwards has the physical tools that Haliburton lacks. Whether he can translate those into productivity remains a question. In particular, Edwards will have to dramatically improve on his 29% 3-point shooting in college. More concerning, Edwards was no better on catch-and-shoot attempts than those off the dribble, which suggests that shot selection isn't his problem. He also has to play with more consistent effort on defense. Those weaknesses have tripped up more talented prospects, but if Edwards can improve, he has star potential.
Hayes and Hampton are both in my fourth tier of prospects, with Hayes near the top of that group. If Hayes can make better decisions passing out of the pick-and-roll, his size, quickness and ability to shoot off the dribble could make him dangerous operating in space. There's more projection necessary with Hampton, but his NBL performance at least suggests that there is no reason to disbelieve scouts' assessment of his potential.
Which projected second-round guard do you find most intriguing?
Schmitz: Payton Pritchard
Pritchard is the classic hiding-in-plain-sight sleeper who is coming off a monster senior season (20-4-5) yet gets dinged because of his age and mediocre measurables. But I'll buy stock in Pritchard's logo range, efficient handle, improved finishing and underrated defensive toughness.
Pritchard is one of only four players in our top 100 rankings to make more than 85 3s at better than 40% last season. His shooting and sturdy frame make him the best-equipped to fit in multiguard lineups among the veteran guards projected in the Nos. 25-35 range.
Givony: Cassius Winston
Winston has long been projected as a late first-round pick in our mock drafts, but lately, I've been hearing that teams tend to favor guards such as Malachi Flynn, Tyrell Terry and perhaps Tre Jones. GMs apparently aren't in love with Winston's average body, poor defense, OK athleticism and so-so measurements (6-foot-3 wingspan and a hair under 6-foot-2 in shoes).
I think that's a mistake. He's one of the best pick-and-roll players in this draft and an elite shooter (career 43% from 3 and 85% from the line). There's a reason Michigan State rarely lost the past three seasons (83-21). Winston is ready to play in an NBA game tomorrow. I've learned over the years not to discount guys such as this.
Pelton: Malachi Flynn
As good as Flynn was in two seasons at Washington State (including scoring a game winner to beat Washington and fellow freshman Markelle Fultz in Seattle), I didn't envision him as a future NBA player until after his transfer to San Diego State.
In one season with the Aztecs, Flynn emerged as perhaps the nation's premier pick-and-roll threat. Per Synergy Sports tracking, the 1.16 points per play that San Diego State averaged on pick-and-rolls on which Flynn shot, passed to a teammate who shot or turned the ball over was the most among players who ran at least 250 such pick-and-rolls in Division I. Additionally, Flynn one-upped Haliburton with top-quartile projections for a point guard in six of the 10 skill-based stats, tied for the most "strengths" of any prospect in the draft.
Listed at 6-foot-1, Flynn is undersized for an NBA point guard. He'll struggle against the most physical opponents, but he competes at the defensive end and boasts a high steal rate. If Flynn's pick-and-roll ability translates to the NBA, he'll find his way on the court sooner rather than later.
If the Minnesota Timberwolves keep the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, that top selection will likely come down to a choice between Georgia's Anthony Edwards and Illawarra's LaMelo Ball. Which of the two is the better pro prospect? Who else belongs in the conversation about the best guard in this draft class?
Heading into draft night (Nov. 18 on ESPN), our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five guards, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
Whom do you have as the No. 1 guard in this class?
Pelton: LaMelo Ball
Projecting Ball's future based on a dozen games in Australia is challenging, but not impossible. One takeaway from my work looking at translating player statistics from other leagues (including the NCAA) to the NBA is that a handful of metrics stabilize quickly and are indicators of talent, most notably usage rate.
To some extent, I'd compare Ball's season to Kyrie Irving's one campaign at Duke, which saw him play just 11 games due to injury. Despite that limited sample, Irving still shot near the top of my projections because of his high usage rate (27% of Duke's plays) and assist rate (7.5 per 100 plays).
In much the same way, Ball's usage (28.5%) and assist (9.2 per 100 plays) stood out in the National Basketball League. Unlike Irving, Ball wasn't competing against other top prospects aside from two meetings with fellow possible lottery pick RJ Hampton. At the same time, Ball was playing against much older and more experienced fringe NBA players such as Bryce Cotton and Casper Ware, who have improved from their college days.
When current Denver Nuggets senior analyst Layne Vashro compared the strength of leagues around the world in 2015, he found that the level of play in the NBL was higher than the ACC and other college conferences.
I wouldn't take the Ball-Irving comparison too far. Ball shot 25% on 80 attempts from 3-point range compared to 46% for Irving on 39 shots. Given his shot selection and far weaker free throw shooting, Ball is unlikely to come into the NBA nearly as effective a scorer as Irving was immediately. Still, the small sample of data we have on Ball points toward an elite prospect -- much as it did for Irving in a similar situation.
Givony: LaMelo Ball
Supersized playmakers are the queen on the chessboard in today's NBA. Ball handles on a string and can make every pass in the book, putting him in a rare class of shot-creators from day one. Given his late growth spurt, age (turned 19 two months ago) and unique path, I'm bearish on Ball's ability to improve defensively and as a shooter as well.
While my skepticism around the likelihood of Anthony Edwards reaching his (admittedly high) full potential plays a part in this pick, I'm a believer in Ball's talent and long-term outlook. His frame will need to continue to evolve, and whichever team picks him will certainly need to hand him the keys to the franchise over in order to maximize his strengths. Surely there will be growing pains early on in terms of turnovers, problematic shot selection and blown defensive assignments. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, but I understand why he's divisive. Part of that is due to his father's past antics, which I think are overblown by now.
Ball is not only the top guard in the class, he's the top overall talent, and it's not particularly close in my mind.
Schmitz: LaMelo Ball
Ball is the most talented prospect in this class and whom I would take No. 1, regardless of team need. You could put almost every prospect in this draft with the best trainers and coaches in the world for years and they still wouldn't be able to develop the type basketball instincts Ball possesses.
When I asked Ball about certain passes during our film session, even he couldn't really explain what went into each read, he'd just credit his natural court vision. That style won't fit with every coach, but the fact that he's such a raw talent without having been on a more traditional development path is a huge part of what makes him so tantalizing. Even though he doesn't have great habits in terms of shot selection and defensive intensity, he's seen so many more possessions in his career than most players his age. That has absolutely played a role in his ability to make the game look so easy.
While not the same caliber shooter, he reminds me a little bit of a 6-foot-7 Trae Young -- another confident, high-usage guard who faced questions about whether his style would translate to the NBA. Like Young, you have to build around Ball completely and live with some wild shots to get to his genius, but he's special enough to do it if surrounded by shooting and athletic defenders.
Even so, it's hard for me to say with certainty what Ball will be in five years. I'd surely bet on the talent, but will he fight through rigorous seasons if he ends up in a losing situation? Plus, I actually see the gap between Ball and Edwards as much smaller than Jonathan and Kevin.
After Ball, who are your top five guards?
Givony: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) RJ Hampton, (5) Kira Lewis
This is a strong group, and if you told me that Killian Hayes, Tyrese Maxey and Cole Anthony would end up being among the five best guards to come out of the class, I wouldn't be surprised. Among these five, here are some things I think might help determine which players will reach their potential:
Edwards: What kind of structure will he have around him? Will he play with consistent intensity? Can he overcome the lack of coaching and poor fundamentals he developed in high school? He has star talent with some real downside in the wrong situation.
Haliburton: A very situation-specific player. At his best, playing off other playmakers and making others better. How much talent will he have alongside him early in his career? He is a perfect do-it-all role player for a playoff team but maybe not what the worst teams in the NBA need.
Hampton: A gifted athlete with terrific scoring instincts who played against low levels of competition early in his career and wasn't ready for the rigors of the pro game. He has to get tougher on both ends of the floor, improve his shooting and continue to grow his knowledge of the game. He has considerable talent and could be a major steal in the right situation.
Lewis: Perhaps the fastest end-to-end player in the draft, but how much will his slight frame affect his ability to absorb contact inside the paint? Similarly, will he have issues holding his own defensively early in his career, considering his lack of physicality and at times inconsistent approach? Alabama was 34-31 (16-20 in SEC play) over the course of Lewis' college career. How much should that be held against him?
Schmitz: (2) Anthony Edwards, (3) Tyrese Haliburton, (4) Tyrese Maxey, (5) Kira Lewis
Although I'm not blind to questions about his defensive intensity, shot selection, shooting consistency and winning, Edwards is arguably the most physically impressive perimeter prospect I've ever evaluated. If he lands in the right situation, he could develop into one of the NBA's more devastating scorers.
He wasn't in peak shape, but seeing Edwards' sheer size (6-foot-5), strength (230 pounds), length (6-foot-10), quickness and explosion at his Thursday pro day was eye-opening. According to P3, which has tested more than 700 players with NBA experience, Edwards generates more force than any other player the company has ever tested at his position. He ranks in the 99th percentile in terms of acceleration force and the 98th percentile in terms of deceleration force.
He's incredibly shifty for a player with his frame, and he should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor. The only other guard I can think of with that strength and ability to stop and start on a dime is James Harden. Edwards isn't that caliber of a shooter or passer, but in terms of how he can shed defenders to the rim or create space with step-backs, there are some similarities. I also think Edwards has far more shooting potential than most. His percentages were a product of shot selection more than anything else, and he shoots a really easy ball.
If the team that drafts him can connect with him in a way that brings out more consistent fire and focus on both ends, I think Edwards could absolutely end up as the best player to come out of this class. As it stands now, I still give Ball the edge, but I think it's more a matter of preference. Do you want the powerful, explosive scorer or the finesse-based, 6-foot-7 playmaker?
I dove more into Haliburton here and Maxey here.
Pelton: (2) Tyrese Haliburton, (3) Anthony Edwards, (4) Killian Hayes, (5) RJ Hampton
After Ball, who is alone in the first tier, I have Haliburton and Edwards in my second tier of prospects for very different reasons.
Haliburton's college productivity bodes well for his NBA future. Despite playing most of his sophomore season at age 19, he projects better than 75% of NBA-bound point guards in five of the 10 skill-based stats that I consider for strengths and weaknesses. Although Haliburton is not a prototypical pick-and-roll point guard in the NBA, his catch-and-shoot ability should allow him to play next to a ball-dominant guard and make plays when the ball is swung to him on the weak side.
Edwards has the physical tools that Haliburton lacks. Whether he can translate those into productivity remains a question. In particular, Edwards will have to dramatically improve on his 29% 3-point shooting in college. More concerning, Edwards was no better on catch-and-shoot attempts than those off the dribble, which suggests that shot selection isn't his problem. He also has to play with more consistent effort on defense. Those weaknesses have tripped up more talented prospects, but if Edwards can improve, he has star potential.
Hayes and Hampton are both in my fourth tier of prospects, with Hayes near the top of that group. If Hayes can make better decisions passing out of the pick-and-roll, his size, quickness and ability to shoot off the dribble could make him dangerous operating in space. There's more projection necessary with Hampton, but his NBL performance at least suggests that there is no reason to disbelieve scouts' assessment of his potential.
Which projected second-round guard do you find most intriguing?
Schmitz: Payton Pritchard
Pritchard is the classic hiding-in-plain-sight sleeper who is coming off a monster senior season (20-4-5) yet gets dinged because of his age and mediocre measurables. But I'll buy stock in Pritchard's logo range, efficient handle, improved finishing and underrated defensive toughness.
Pritchard is one of only four players in our top 100 rankings to make more than 85 3s at better than 40% last season. His shooting and sturdy frame make him the best-equipped to fit in multiguard lineups among the veteran guards projected in the Nos. 25-35 range.
Givony: Cassius Winston
Winston has long been projected as a late first-round pick in our mock drafts, but lately, I've been hearing that teams tend to favor guards such as Malachi Flynn, Tyrell Terry and perhaps Tre Jones. GMs apparently aren't in love with Winston's average body, poor defense, OK athleticism and so-so measurements (6-foot-3 wingspan and a hair under 6-foot-2 in shoes).
I think that's a mistake. He's one of the best pick-and-roll players in this draft and an elite shooter (career 43% from 3 and 85% from the line). There's a reason Michigan State rarely lost the past three seasons (83-21). Winston is ready to play in an NBA game tomorrow. I've learned over the years not to discount guys such as this.
Pelton: Malachi Flynn
As good as Flynn was in two seasons at Washington State (including scoring a game winner to beat Washington and fellow freshman Markelle Fultz in Seattle), I didn't envision him as a future NBA player until after his transfer to San Diego State.
In one season with the Aztecs, Flynn emerged as perhaps the nation's premier pick-and-roll threat. Per Synergy Sports tracking, the 1.16 points per play that San Diego State averaged on pick-and-rolls on which Flynn shot, passed to a teammate who shot or turned the ball over was the most among players who ran at least 250 such pick-and-rolls in Division I. Additionally, Flynn one-upped Haliburton with top-quartile projections for a point guard in six of the 10 skill-based stats, tied for the most "strengths" of any prospect in the draft.
Listed at 6-foot-1, Flynn is undersized for an NBA point guard. He'll struggle against the most physical opponents, but he competes at the defensive end and boasts a high steal rate. If Flynn's pick-and-roll ability translates to the NBA, he'll find his way on the court sooner rather than later.
