Fixing Every NBA Team's Worst FA Signing of the Past Decade:太平洋赛区由JabariIverson 发表在翻译团招工部 https://bbs.hupu.com/fyt-store
My colleague, Greg Swartz, recently highlighted every NBA team's worst free-agent signing of the past decade.It's now my turn to fix these financial misfires.
Swartz used a formula to determine free agents' cost per win share, which identified each club's top free-agency regret. Contracts had to be signed between 2010 and 2019 to be eligible for the exercise.
Those are the particulars. Now comes the hard part.
Whether changing the contract terms, adjusting the target or axing the agreements altogether, let's find a fix for every free-agency face-plant.
Golden State Warriors: Andre Iguodala
The Contract: Three years, $48 million
The Fix: None needed
Contenders need to spend large to keep their championship cores together, and Iguodala used that information as leverage while brokering this deal in July 2017. Golden State had started its negotiations with a three-year, $36 million offer, per The Athletic's Anthony Slater, and Iguodala eventually found his way to a three-year, $48 million pact.
"Are we overpaying statistically? Probably," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told Slater in May 2019. "Are we overpaying in terms of his value on winning a championship. Hell, no. Can you imagine us without him? No. He's been worth every penny and more."
Since the Warriors kept Iguodala for only two seasons—they traded him to the Grizzlies last summer—it's tempting to say the fix for this contract is shortening it by a year. But the deal never gets done if that's the case.
Golden State, which won the title in 2018, had too much at stake to let Iguodala walk, even if keeping him meant paying him more than the numbers said he should get.
Los Angeles Clippers: Spencer Hawes
The Contract: Four years, $23 million
The Fix: Modernize frontcourt or choose a better center
The Clippers gave Hawes this deal in July 2014. That December, the folks over at Hoops Habit were already asking if the signing was a mistake. By June, L.A. shipped the big fella to Charlotte with Matt Barnes for Lance Stephenson.
Hawes was horrific over his 73 games for the Clippers. He averaged only 5.8 points and 3.5 rebounds across 17.5 minutes and had one of the more grotesque shooting slash lines you'll ever see from a 7-footer: 39.3/31.3/64.7.
Obviously, L.A. expected more—he shot 45.6/41.6/78.3 the previous season—but his game was never great. Or good, even. He came with a below-average career PER (14.4) and a negative BPM (minus-1.2). Giving him a four-year deal was just asking for trouble.
The Clippers had other, better options to explore. If they wanted a traditional big, the 2014 free-agent crop included Marcin Gortat, Pau Gasol and Ed Davis. If they wanted a more modern big, they could've pursued Boris Diaw, Josh McRoberts and Mike Scott. Instead, they shot themselves in the foot with Hawes.
Los Angeles Lakers: Luol Deng
The Contract: Four years, $72 million
The Fix: Save the space
An unprecedented spike in the salary cap for the 2016 offseason left every club positioned to make a splash. Even the Warriors, who won the title in 2014-15 and a record 73 games in 2015-16, found enough flexibility to sign Kevin Durant.
The Lakers wanted in on the fun, but their sales pitch lacked substance. Other than the typical Hollywood offerings, L.A. had nothing to lure in talent. Kobe Bryant had retired, and the loss column skyrocketed even before he left. Over the prior three seasons, only the Process-trusting 76ers suffered more losses than the Lakers' 181.
When the market wasn't buying what L.A. had to sell, the franchise had an opportunity to invest its cap space in other ways. It could have "rented it out" to other teams, or taken bad money off their hands in exchange for draft picks. It could have signed a slew of short-term pacts in hopes of either stumbling upon an underrated contributor or seeing those players emerge as trade chips at the deadline.
Instead, the Lakers threw this deal at Deng and a four-year, $64 million contract at Timofey Mozgov. Would you believe me if I told you neither contract worked out? Shocking, right?
Deng played 57 inefficient games for the Lakers and was waived in Sept. 2018. Mozgov played 54 for the Purple and Gold, which had to sacrifice D'Angelo Russell to get out of his deal.
Neither contract needed to happen.
Phoenix Suns: Brandon Knight
The Contract: Five years, $70 million
The Fix: Recognize his limitations and pay him accordingly
Back when Phoenix was playing point guard roulette, it faulted first by tabbing Knight as one of the keepers. At the same trade deadline that brought him to the desert (2015), the Suns traded away both Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas.
Dragic would become an All-Star in Miami. Thomas later emerged as an MVP candidate in Boston. And Knight... well, before injuries got the best of him, he posted volume-scoring numbers with middling (at best) efficiency and uninspiring distributing.
During the 11 games Knight played for the Suns after the trade but before signing this contract, he averaged 13.4 points on a 35.7/31.3/82.8 slash line. The shooting rates could've scared them off, but they handed him a five-year, $70 million deal instead.
While he averaged 19.6 points in his first season on that contract, he shot only 41.5 percent overall and 34.2 percent from three. His 52.2 true shooting percentage was 14th-worst of the 290 players who averaged at least 19 points since 2010.
Knight's injuries—he has played only 170 games over the past five seasons—haven't helped the perception of this deal, but it was overpriced to begin with. Something in the three-year, $36 million range would've been more reflective of his strengths and weaknesses.
Sacramento Kings: Zach Randolph
The Contract: Two years, $24 million
The Fix: Don't rush the rebuild
It's easy to say this as someone not in the thick of a decade-plus playoff drought, but why can't the Kings be more patient?
Let's go back to 2017. Sacramento went 32-50 the previous season and veered into an organizational reset after trading away DeMarcus Cousins. The road to recovery was sure to be a long one, but at least the Kings were starting to collect interesting prospects such as De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Sacramento seemed ready to follow the tortoise's slow-and-steady path to the finish line, but then it got antsy. When free agency hit, the Kings threw major money at 30-somethings Randolph, George Hill and Vince Carter. The idea was to find some veteran mentors, but Sacramento's youth didn't need that yet. It's like the Kings were trying to make the finishing touches on a clearly incomplete project.
All three were out of the picture before the 2018-19 season started, though Randolph's contract languished on the payroll until the Kings could finally unload it on the Mavericks at the trade deadline.
If Sacramento could have the 2017 summer back, it should either save its cap space (or use it to pry draft picks away from other teams) or use it on an up-and-comer or two who might actually be around whenever the Kings snap their lengthy postseason drought.
My colleague, Greg Swartz, recently highlighted every NBA team's worst free-agent signing of the past decade.It's now my turn to fix these financial misfires.
Swartz used a formula to determine free agents' cost per win share, which identified each club's top free-agency regret. Contracts had to be signed between 2010 and 2019 to be eligible for the exercise.
Those are the particulars. Now comes the hard part.
Whether changing the contract terms, adjusting the target or axing the agreements altogether, let's find a fix for every free-agency face-plant.
Golden State Warriors: Andre Iguodala
The Contract: Three years, $48 million
The Fix: None needed
Contenders need to spend large to keep their championship cores together, and Iguodala used that information as leverage while brokering this deal in July 2017. Golden State had started its negotiations with a three-year, $36 million offer, per The Athletic's Anthony Slater, and Iguodala eventually found his way to a three-year, $48 million pact.
"Are we overpaying statistically? Probably," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told Slater in May 2019. "Are we overpaying in terms of his value on winning a championship. Hell, no. Can you imagine us without him? No. He's been worth every penny and more."
Since the Warriors kept Iguodala for only two seasons—they traded him to the Grizzlies last summer—it's tempting to say the fix for this contract is shortening it by a year. But the deal never gets done if that's the case.
Golden State, which won the title in 2018, had too much at stake to let Iguodala walk, even if keeping him meant paying him more than the numbers said he should get.
Los Angeles Clippers: Spencer Hawes
The Contract: Four years, $23 million
The Fix: Modernize frontcourt or choose a better center
The Clippers gave Hawes this deal in July 2014. That December, the folks over at Hoops Habit were already asking if the signing was a mistake. By June, L.A. shipped the big fella to Charlotte with Matt Barnes for Lance Stephenson.
Hawes was horrific over his 73 games for the Clippers. He averaged only 5.8 points and 3.5 rebounds across 17.5 minutes and had one of the more grotesque shooting slash lines you'll ever see from a 7-footer: 39.3/31.3/64.7.
Obviously, L.A. expected more—he shot 45.6/41.6/78.3 the previous season—but his game was never great. Or good, even. He came with a below-average career PER (14.4) and a negative BPM (minus-1.2). Giving him a four-year deal was just asking for trouble.
The Clippers had other, better options to explore. If they wanted a traditional big, the 2014 free-agent crop included Marcin Gortat, Pau Gasol and Ed Davis. If they wanted a more modern big, they could've pursued Boris Diaw, Josh McRoberts and Mike Scott. Instead, they shot themselves in the foot with Hawes.
Los Angeles Lakers: Luol Deng
The Contract: Four years, $72 million
The Fix: Save the space
An unprecedented spike in the salary cap for the 2016 offseason left every club positioned to make a splash. Even the Warriors, who won the title in 2014-15 and a record 73 games in 2015-16, found enough flexibility to sign Kevin Durant.
The Lakers wanted in on the fun, but their sales pitch lacked substance. Other than the typical Hollywood offerings, L.A. had nothing to lure in talent. Kobe Bryant had retired, and the loss column skyrocketed even before he left. Over the prior three seasons, only the Process-trusting 76ers suffered more losses than the Lakers' 181.
When the market wasn't buying what L.A. had to sell, the franchise had an opportunity to invest its cap space in other ways. It could have "rented it out" to other teams, or taken bad money off their hands in exchange for draft picks. It could have signed a slew of short-term pacts in hopes of either stumbling upon an underrated contributor or seeing those players emerge as trade chips at the deadline.
Instead, the Lakers threw this deal at Deng and a four-year, $64 million contract at Timofey Mozgov. Would you believe me if I told you neither contract worked out? Shocking, right?
Deng played 57 inefficient games for the Lakers and was waived in Sept. 2018. Mozgov played 54 for the Purple and Gold, which had to sacrifice D'Angelo Russell to get out of his deal.
Neither contract needed to happen.
Phoenix Suns: Brandon Knight
The Contract: Five years, $70 million
The Fix: Recognize his limitations and pay him accordingly
Back when Phoenix was playing point guard roulette, it faulted first by tabbing Knight as one of the keepers. At the same trade deadline that brought him to the desert (2015), the Suns traded away both Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas.
Dragic would become an All-Star in Miami. Thomas later emerged as an MVP candidate in Boston. And Knight... well, before injuries got the best of him, he posted volume-scoring numbers with middling (at best) efficiency and uninspiring distributing.
During the 11 games Knight played for the Suns after the trade but before signing this contract, he averaged 13.4 points on a 35.7/31.3/82.8 slash line. The shooting rates could've scared them off, but they handed him a five-year, $70 million deal instead.
While he averaged 19.6 points in his first season on that contract, he shot only 41.5 percent overall and 34.2 percent from three. His 52.2 true shooting percentage was 14th-worst of the 290 players who averaged at least 19 points since 2010.
Knight's injuries—he has played only 170 games over the past five seasons—haven't helped the perception of this deal, but it was overpriced to begin with. Something in the three-year, $36 million range would've been more reflective of his strengths and weaknesses.
Sacramento Kings: Zach Randolph
The Contract: Two years, $24 million
The Fix: Don't rush the rebuild
It's easy to say this as someone not in the thick of a decade-plus playoff drought, but why can't the Kings be more patient?
Let's go back to 2017. Sacramento went 32-50 the previous season and veered into an organizational reset after trading away DeMarcus Cousins. The road to recovery was sure to be a long one, but at least the Kings were starting to collect interesting prospects such as De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Sacramento seemed ready to follow the tortoise's slow-and-steady path to the finish line, but then it got antsy. When free agency hit, the Kings threw major money at 30-somethings Randolph, George Hill and Vince Carter. The idea was to find some veteran mentors, but Sacramento's youth didn't need that yet. It's like the Kings were trying to make the finishing touches on a clearly incomplete project.
All three were out of the picture before the 2018-19 season started, though Randolph's contract languished on the payroll until the Kings could finally unload it on the Mavericks at the trade deadline.
If Sacramento could have the 2017 summer back, it should either save its cap space (or use it to pry draft picks away from other teams) or use it on an up-and-comer or two who might actually be around whenever the Kings snap their lengthy postseason drought.
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