（2级）22 numbers to know for the 22 teams in the NBA bubble由asjkfj 发表在翻译团招工部 https://bbs.hupu.com/fyt-store
In addition, I’ve compiled one number or set of numbers to briefly illustrate some of the storylines I’ll be watching for each team as they work their way through this unprecedented chapter in NBA history. They are listed below, with the teams grouped into the tiers the NBA saw fit to designate for their hotel lodging.
Yacht Club
Portland Trail Blazers: 114.2
The Trail Blazers allowed 114.2 points per 100 non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
This mark was 26th in the NBA and 3.3 points per 100 worse than Dallas, the next worst team currently occupying playoff position. In 2018-19, Portland finished 16th in non-garbage time defense.
It is perhaps too pat to attribute that decline solely to the absence of Jusuf Nurkic. But I’m going to attribute the decline largely to Nurkic’s absence. Hassan Whiteside has been solid enough defensively as his career has progressed, though his defensive impacts are consistently middling in metrics that lack a box score component, aligning Whiteside’s reputation as something of a stat-padder. Nurkic, on the other hand, has consistently graded as an excellent defender, both as a young player in Denver and throughout his time in the City of Roses.
The Blazers chances of making the postseason are slim, needing to hold off Sacramento, New Orleans AND San Antonio. They must accomplish this despite having perhaps the toughest schedule in the bubble; all eight of their games against teams in current playoff positions. This translates to an 11 percent chance, according to 538. To capitalize on this opportunity, Nurkic, as well as the similarly returning Zach Collins, will have to have that same kind of strong defensive impact to give the Blazers a chance.
Sacramento Kings: +3.9
The amount by which the Kings’ Pace increases when De’Aaron Fox is in the game compared to out of the game.
To qualify for the play-in series, the Kings literally need to hit the ground running, having to outperform New Orleans and Portland at minimum.
Offense is likely to be at a premium, especially for the earliest games of the restart, making easy points in transition even more important than usual for all teams, perhaps none more so than Sacramento. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings were 19th in halfcourt offense, averaging 0.94 points per play, the worst mark amongst all Western Conference teams still playing.
Getting the couple of high-value possessions that Fox’s roadrunner ability to advance the ball quickly allow — the Kings averaged over 0.3 points more per play in transition than the halfcourt — could make the all-important difference between them having a chance at extending their stay in Orlando or merely playing out the string before a quick return home.
New Orleans Pelicans: +130
The total points by which the Pelican’s preferred starting lineup of Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Derrick Favors outscored the opposition.
This lineup was one of only five five-man units with a scoring margin of at least +100 this season and achieved that mark in the second-fewest number of minutes (230) and by far the fewest games in which it appeared (17).
While small sample size plus/minus info should be taken with a mound of salt, and there are reasons to disbelieve New Orleans with-Zion defensive output, the level of dominance in that sample illustrates the promise the Pelicans have with Zion on the floor. Case in point is that prior to the restart, 538’s projection (based on their team strength algorithm, which heavily weights recent performance allowing for quick adjustments when an impact player leaves or returns to the lineup) has New Orleans as a significant favorite to pass Memphis for the eighth spot outright.
Especially if one believes in the importance of “playoff reps” in a team’s progression, qualifying for the postseason would be a huge boon to this team. Even should the Pelicans prove overmatched by the Lakers in round one, Zion being exposed to that level of competition in his first year would provide him and the team with valuable information on what developments and additions are needed going forward.
San Antonio Spurs: 140, 55, 74
Number of non-garbage time possessions the Spurs played with backcourt combos of Dejounte Murray/Derrick White (140), Murray/Lonnie Walker (55) and White/Walker (74) respectively, per Cleaning the Glass.
No, I’m not in the middle of a “Lost” rewatch, but these numbers are bad. As San Antonio starts to fully turn the page from the Kawhi era with LaMarcus Aldridge out and DeMar DeRozan an impending free agent, seeing what they have in terms of this trio of young perimeter players is imperative.
I don’t particularly care how effective or not these combos have been over the season given those tiny samples, nor am I especially concerned about their statistical output in the bubble environment given how limited San Antonio’s frontcourt options appear with Aldridge and Trey Lyles out of action. I decidedly do care about whether groupings of or even all three of these players appear to create workable synergies, and so should the Spurs.
Phoenix Suns: .168
Deandre Ayton’s free throw attempt rate.
Ayton is rated 34th of 41 centers who appeared in at least 750 pre-shutdown minutes in this metric. Every player behind Ayton on the list, and 10 of the 11 other players ranked 29th or lower, attempted at least 1.5 3FGA/GM.
While Ayton grew as a defender over the course of Year 2 as he regained his footing after his banned substance suspension, his offensive game remained decidedly midrange heavy. According to Cleaning the Glass, he was in the 97th percentile among bigs in terms of the proportion of his shots coming from midrange areas. This is turn was a huge factor in Ayton ranking in the 28th percentile among bigs in drawing shooting fouls.
The same touch that makes him a quality midrange shooter also means he is very comfortable at the free throw line, with a career accuracy of 75.3 percent. With the Suns chances of making the postseason being slim-to-none, seeing some improvement from Ayton in terms of finding ways to get himself more of the easy points from the line that his size, athleticism and skill level should allow will be a key indicator of progress for Phoenix.
Washington Wizards: 13.1%
Troy Brown Jr.’s time of possession percentage during the 2019-20 regular season.
With John Wall and Bradley Beal both for the restart, Brown looks to have much more of a chance to play on ball than he has thus far in his NBA career. Though Brown developed as a catch-and-shoot player in his second year, hitting 46 of 117 C&S 3-pointers (39.3 percent), hitting his long term upside necessitates unlocking some of the ballhandling and playmaking versatility he exhibited in his one year at Oregon.
With Washington’s playoff hopes limited by their stars’ absences, allowing players like Brown and Rui Hachimura to step into expanded roles for a few games is the best way to gain something useful from their time in the bubble.
For sake of context, Brown’s time of possession is sandwiched neatly between those of Eric Paschall (13.2 percent) and Montrezl Harrell (12.9 percent). In other words, extremely low for a perimeter player with designs of being a playmaker. These eight games could prove valuable evaluation time for the Wizards and developmental experience for Brown.
Grand Floridian
Oklahoma City Thunder: +31.4/100
The degree to which the Thunder outscored opponents when Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shared the floor.
It is unlikely in the extreme that such a high level of play (135.8 ORG!) is close to sustainable over longer stretches, but even at a much-reduced level of effectiveness, this success suggests OKC has a wrinkle to throw at a higher-seeded playoff opponent in the first round. Billy Donovan only used lineups featuring this trio for 850 possessions, 13.9 percent of all non-garbage time trips, per Cleaning the Glass. There should be some room to ramp that ratio up, especially without any need to preserve Paul’s legs for the long haul. Leaning into what has been one of the most effective combos in the league, this year this trio will be key to any attempt to pull an early-round upset for the Thunder.
Philadelphia 76ers: 23
Total possessions the 76ers played with Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton sharing the floor during the regular season.
With Simmons “moving to power forward” — for my money more a bit of PR to soften the blow of removing Al Horford from the starting lineup than a substantial change in Simmons’ role “— this is the starting triumvirate of ballhandlers for Philadelphia heading into the restart.
While this look is untested in a competitive setting, starting Horford alongside Embiid got a full look, and it wasn’t good, at least not offensively. As anticipated, the pair produced great defenses, with Philly only shipping 102.5 PTS/100, according to Cleaning the Glass. Unfortunately, the offense was anemic, averaging only 101.1 PTS/100, according to CTG.
The theory of this 76ers roster was to be elite defensively and use its talent level, even as ill-fitting as it might be between Simmons, Embiid and Horford, to muddle its way to average-ish offense. The move to a completely new look is an admission that muddling to the middle wasn’t going to happen. Leaving the question for the restart being whether replacing Horford with Milton adds substantially more offense through greater spacing and creation than is lost with Horford’s size and nous relegated to the bench.
Houston Rockets: 0
Competitive minutes the Rockets are likely to play with a player larger than 6-7 on the floor.
Prior to this year’s Houston experiment, only the 2013-14 Mavericks had played lineups that small as much as 10 percent of the time. As I discussed in June, whether the unprecedented dose of small ball has a built-in playoff shelf life is an open question that is key to the Rockets postseason prospects.
Is the effectiveness of the experiment intrinsic to the style of play given the skillsets of Houston’s players in terms of maximizing the impact of James Harden’s all-around creation skills? Or is it more of a regular-season edge because of the “surprise” factor whereby teams aren’t able to fully prepare for playing such an unusual opponent once every few months, but can adjust readily after a game or two in a playoff setting?
This has implications not just for the Rockets title hopes, but also for the willingness of teams to experiment going forward. A successful playoff run by Houston might give normally very risk-averse teams a bit more courage to “get weird” knowing that large deviation from conventional modes of play can and have worked.
Indiana Pacers: -3.4/100
The Pacers’ Net Rating with Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon sharing the floor.
It was only 487 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, but it’s not an encouraging number. Unlike the obvious weirdness of the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner fit — a difficulty which will be avoided by Sabonis’ likely absence for much or all of the restart with plantar fasciitis — Oladipo and Brogdon would seem to have complementary skillsets.
Both are adept on-ball creators, but neither is quite equipped to be a dominant primary creator on his own. Both have the jump shooting acumen to operate off the ball as well. So while neither is quite a true “1” and both might be limited by playing in a traditional “2” role, two “1.5s” also adds up to 3.
Unsurprisingly, the pair never quite jelled in that way without a training camp as Oladipo continued his recovery from knee surgery. A decision has yet to be made on Oladipo’s availability for the seeding and playoff games, but giving the pair another chance to mesh will provide valuable information for the Pacers in determining if they should plan on keeping them together or perhaps move one this offseason to secure a better fitting lineup.
Dallas Mavericks: +15.0
The Mavericks’ Net Rating with lineups featuring Luka Doncic/Kristaps Porzingis “small ball” lineups with Dorian Finney-Smith at the 4.
In the 492 possessions these lineups combos appeared, Dallas put up an obscene 122.2 PTS/100, combining a sterling 58.3 Effective Field Goal Percentage with a remarkably stingy 10.8 Turnover Percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. In other words, about the highest functioning offense one is ever likely to see; this combination of shooting and ball-control has the added benefit of improving the lineup’s defense.
Given the degree to which poor offensive outcomes can compromise the ensuing defensive possession, it is perhaps unsurprising that a lineup that avoids those outcomes is also elite at preventing easy chances for the opposition. Only 13 percent of Dallas’ defensive possessions were played in transition with this lineup on the floor.
Especially if they can climb to the sixth seed and avoid one of the Los Angeles teams in the first round, this sort of lineup, which can score effectively in the halfcourt — over 1.1 points per halfcourt play, in the top percentile of all lineup combos — while limiting opponent chances at easy points in transition is officially Playoff Scary if Rick Carlisle can find a way to extend the minute load of this grouping.
Brooklyn Nets: 0
The approximate impact of post-restart play on Brooklyn’s outlooks for 2020-21 and beyond.
The Brooklyn BubbleNets look nothing like the Brooklyn ActualNets will do next season, whenever that may occur. Similar to the discussion of this year’s Warriors in comparison to next year’s outlook, what are we going to learn? The Nets are playing with an interim head coach and at least four of their projected 2020-21 top six absent.
Memphis Grizzlies: 86
Total number of pull up 3-pointers attempted by Ja Morant this season.
While Zion Williamson’s impact coinciding with a strong Pelicans’ run heading into the March shutdown overshadowed Morant’s season, he will be a more than deserving Rookie of the Year winner on his own merit, in no way a “by default” choice. A major part of Morant’s effectiveness this season has been his long-range shooting.
Though his low attempt rate — only 15 percent of Morant’s attempts have been behind the arc, in the 4th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass — indicates the degree to which the long shot has mostly been a “keep the defense honest” weapon, he did hit over 38 percent on the season. However, the book on him coming out of the draft was make him shoot, and he is bound to see a lot of “under” coverage on ball screens heading into the postseason.
In that regard, his willingness to take, let alone make, 3-pointers off the bounce will be a big step in his development. Those 86 attempts tied him for 67th most in the NBA this year, while the top of the leaderboard is filled with some of the elite shot-creating guards in the game. It’s unlikely that Morant is going to become Damian Lillard in regard to shot profile, but if he can maintain anything close to the 34.9 percent accuracy he achieved on pull-up 3s while upping his volume of attempts to a more moderate level, he will become one of the most difficult point-of-attack covers in the NBA, well on the way to being the true superstar Memphis hasn’t had since perhaps Pau Gasol.
Orlando Magic: 4.8/100
The degree to which the Magic’s defense was better with Jonathan Isaac on the floor this season.
With Isaac appearing in Orlando’s final scrimmage, suiting up for the first time since injuring his knee on New Year’s Day, the Magic could be welcoming one of the NBA’s premier young defensive players back into the fold. If he does appear in seeding and eventual playoff contests, it is likely Isaac will be on some sort of minutes or load restriction. But, for a team so reliant on its defense to stay in games given their own offensive limitations, the addition could ramp up the Magic’s competitiveness in a postseason series — though Orlando would still be a heavy underdog against any of Milwaukee, Toronto or Boston in that first round.
Gran Destino
Milwaukee Bucks: 26.5%
The combined 3-point shooting of Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe in the 2019 playoffs.
The Bucks could land three spots on All-Defensive teams this year. Their performance this season has been perhaps the best of the modern era. Milwaukee’s DRTG is 8.3 PTS/100 better than league average, the largest gap since the NBA expanded to 30 teams for the 2004-05 season. Alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Bledsoe have driven that defensive performance, Lopez with his elite rim protection and Bledsoe with his ability to fight around, through and over screens to impact ballhandlers in the Bucks’ drop coverages.
As good as they have been defensively, if they do not force opponents to cover them while the Bucks are on offense, Mike Budenholzer is left with an unpalatable choice of sacrificing some of that world-class defense to create more space for Antetokounmpo. Bledsoe and Lopez making enough jumpers to keep defenses honest prevents that choice from even having to be made, and would keep the Bucks in pole position to win their first title since 1971.
Los Angeles Lakers: -4.2/100
The Lakers’ Net Rating with Anthony Davis at center and LeBron James on the bench, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Though the Lakers managed to hold the fort in lineups with Davis playing next to another big with LeBron on the bench, how tenable those lineups might be in certain playoff matchups (e.g. against the Rockets) makes this one of LA’s potential liabilities looking towards the postseason.
James has long been an iron man in playoff competition, averaging 42 minutes per game career in the postseason, with a single season-low of 38.2 in his last Miami run. At some point that has become an unrealistic expectation for the now 35-year-old. Being able to non-disastrously spell James could determine whether he can make the Finals for the first time as the Western Conference Champion.
Toronto Raptors: -32.7
The gap between Toronto’s scoring per 100 halfcourt plays and per 100 transition plays.
That the Raptors have greatly outperformed post-Kawhi expectations is unquestionable. However, their second-place record in the East likely overstates their chances of defending their title significantly. Toronto’s 5-11 record against other 50+ win pace teams was 18th in the NBA. The main reason for the Raptors’ struggles against top teams was their offense. Against bottom third teams, they had the eighth-best offense, scoring 116.5 PTS/100, but against the top tier, they were 24th, only managing 104.3 PTS/100.
This gap was in large part because of their reliance on transition play. Toronto was 18th overall in halfcourt efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass, last among the teams that finished above .500. Almost tautologically, teams which appear later in the playoffs are better. That means they tend to take care of the ball better and shoot more accurately while being more disciplined getting back on defense should they miss or suffer a live ball turnover. Toronto is thus likely to face many more halfcourt possessions than it did across the regular season, and unless it can close the efficiency gap between when it can play opportunistically and when it has to attack a set defense, its stay in the bubble could be shorter than it had hoped.
Boston Celtics: 39.9%
Jayson Tatum’s pull-up 3FG%. In this era of drop coverage, the pull-up 3 is the ace in the hole. While the shot is difficult for most, players who can connect off the dribble at 35 percent or better present tough choices for a conservative defense, while once that percentage reaches around 38, the math becomes almost untenable to “let him cook.” If this improvement from Tatum is real, he becomes one of those game-changing defense breakers that warp the floor in useful ways for his team’s entire offense.
Though Tatum attempted a reasonably high volume of pull-ups from beyond the arc this year, ninth in the league with 268, 3-point shooting is notably swingy. There is good reason to think he is more accurate than the 32.0 percent he managed over his first two seasons, but it remains to be seen what his true long term level will be. Still, if Tatum continues to take and make these high value, high difficulty shots proficiently and in volume, the Celtics become a danger even to the best defenses employing the drop coverages, such as the Eastern Conference favorite Bucks.
Denver Nuggets: 66.1% and 10.3%
Bol Bol’s respective True Shooting and Block percentages in eight G League games for the Windy City Bulls.
Ok, so far these are just scrimmages. But Bol has been one of the talks of this ramp-up period with his combination of size and apparent ease facing the basket. His efficiency hasn’t quite matched the hype, with a TS% of only 48.1. He’s still 7-2 and has easy range. It’s hard not to be intrigued.
Given Michael Malone’s reluctance to ride with young players (see also Michael Porter Jr.), Bol is unlikely to be a difference-maker for this season, but if he shows much at all in whatever time he is given, the hype train for next year’s megaball Nuggets will be hard to slow down, let alone Bol’s Rookie of the Year candidacy per the league announcing that players debuting during the seeding games and playoffs will still be eligible for next season’s award.
Utah Jazz: -9.8
The difference between Utah’s Net Rating with and without Bojan Bogdanovic on the floor.
The Croatian will miss the restart while recovering from May wrist surgery, and to say it’s a problem for the Jazz is putting it mildly. Some of this is a reflection of Bogdanovc’s shooting and shotmaking ability, but it also is as much about the dearth of other offensive options on the wings.
Bogdanovic attempted a shot or drew a trip to the free throw line on 22.4 percent of offensive plays for which he was in the game. The next highest wing on the Jazz was Georges Niang (14.9 percent), followed by Joe Ingles (11.8) and Royce O’Neale (8.0). For a team that has struggled mightily to produce offense in the playoffs in recent years, becoming overly reliant on Donovan Mitchell creating tough looks for himself, Bogdonovic was supposed to be the guy, or at least a guy to help solve than quandary. But it won’t happen this year.
Miami Heat: 34.7%
Opponents’ accuracy on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, second-lowest in the league.
According to Synergy Sports data, the Heat played zone defense on 12.6 percent of their defensive possessions, the highest in the league by some margin (Toronto was second at 7.1 percent.) Unsurprisingly, this led to opponents getting plenty of C&S 3-point looks against Miami.
Fully one-third of field goal attempts allowed by Miami were C&S 3s. This combination of high attempts and low percentage allowed indicates the tiny margin for error Miami will have as it steps up in the level of the average opponent in the postseason. At the volume allowed opponents regressing to league average accuracy on C&S 3s would result in between 1.5 and 2 “extra” points allowed per game, an extremely large swing that would be worth around five wins over an 82-game season.
Perhaps Miami’s scheme can continue to depress opponent shooting throughout the postseason, but as the Heat play better, more disciplined teams with greater shooting talent in the seeding games and beyond, keep on eye on whether teams are successfully about to shoot Miami out of those zone looks.
LA Clippers: 25.5%
The proportion of competitive possessions for which the Clippers have had Kawhi Leonard AND Paul George on the floor at the same time.
That the Clips played at a better than 56-win pace despite having the pairing that defines their team deployed so infrequently is a testament to how talented and dangerous this team is. With the two superstars on the floor, LA has a +9.9/100 Net Rating, up from +6.8/100 overall, according to Cleaning the Glass. One can only expect the percentages to invert in terms of the time the pair shares the floor, and even if that number doesn’t reach 75 percent of the competitive, it’s going to go up considerably.
Compared to every other contending team, this represents the clearest “shift into playoff gear” adjustment available this season. We generally associate this sort of “switch flipping” to teams that have already won titles or at least made deep playoff runs. This Clippers team has not done so, but of course Leonard won the championship last year, and both George and coach Doc Rivers have plenty of experience playing deep into the postseason. The latent potential here has made evaluation of the red-and-blue half of LA difficult this year, but it also makes them a popular picks as title favorites. If that comes to pass, it will be on the back of the two superstars carrying a much heavier load than they have all season.
In addition, I’ve compiled one number or set of numbers to briefly illustrate some of the storylines I’ll be watching for each team as they work their way through this unprecedented chapter in NBA history. They are listed below, with the teams grouped into the tiers the NBA saw fit to designate for their hotel lodging.
Yacht Club
Portland Trail Blazers: 114.2
The Trail Blazers allowed 114.2 points per 100 non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
This mark was 26th in the NBA and 3.3 points per 100 worse than Dallas, the next worst team currently occupying playoff position. In 2018-19, Portland finished 16th in non-garbage time defense.
It is perhaps too pat to attribute that decline solely to the absence of Jusuf Nurkic. But I’m going to attribute the decline largely to Nurkic’s absence. Hassan Whiteside has been solid enough defensively as his career has progressed, though his defensive impacts are consistently middling in metrics that lack a box score component, aligning Whiteside’s reputation as something of a stat-padder. Nurkic, on the other hand, has consistently graded as an excellent defender, both as a young player in Denver and throughout his time in the City of Roses.
The Blazers chances of making the postseason are slim, needing to hold off Sacramento, New Orleans AND San Antonio. They must accomplish this despite having perhaps the toughest schedule in the bubble; all eight of their games against teams in current playoff positions. This translates to an 11 percent chance, according to 538. To capitalize on this opportunity, Nurkic, as well as the similarly returning Zach Collins, will have to have that same kind of strong defensive impact to give the Blazers a chance.
Sacramento Kings: +3.9
The amount by which the Kings’ Pace increases when De’Aaron Fox is in the game compared to out of the game.
To qualify for the play-in series, the Kings literally need to hit the ground running, having to outperform New Orleans and Portland at minimum.
Offense is likely to be at a premium, especially for the earliest games of the restart, making easy points in transition even more important than usual for all teams, perhaps none more so than Sacramento. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings were 19th in halfcourt offense, averaging 0.94 points per play, the worst mark amongst all Western Conference teams still playing.
Getting the couple of high-value possessions that Fox’s roadrunner ability to advance the ball quickly allow — the Kings averaged over 0.3 points more per play in transition than the halfcourt — could make the all-important difference between them having a chance at extending their stay in Orlando or merely playing out the string before a quick return home.
New Orleans Pelicans: +130
The total points by which the Pelican’s preferred starting lineup of Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Derrick Favors outscored the opposition.
This lineup was one of only five five-man units with a scoring margin of at least +100 this season and achieved that mark in the second-fewest number of minutes (230) and by far the fewest games in which it appeared (17).
While small sample size plus/minus info should be taken with a mound of salt, and there are reasons to disbelieve New Orleans with-Zion defensive output, the level of dominance in that sample illustrates the promise the Pelicans have with Zion on the floor. Case in point is that prior to the restart, 538’s projection (based on their team strength algorithm, which heavily weights recent performance allowing for quick adjustments when an impact player leaves or returns to the lineup) has New Orleans as a significant favorite to pass Memphis for the eighth spot outright.
Especially if one believes in the importance of “playoff reps” in a team’s progression, qualifying for the postseason would be a huge boon to this team. Even should the Pelicans prove overmatched by the Lakers in round one, Zion being exposed to that level of competition in his first year would provide him and the team with valuable information on what developments and additions are needed going forward.
San Antonio Spurs: 140, 55, 74
Number of non-garbage time possessions the Spurs played with backcourt combos of Dejounte Murray/Derrick White (140), Murray/Lonnie Walker (55) and White/Walker (74) respectively, per Cleaning the Glass.
No, I’m not in the middle of a “Lost” rewatch, but these numbers are bad. As San Antonio starts to fully turn the page from the Kawhi era with LaMarcus Aldridge out and DeMar DeRozan an impending free agent, seeing what they have in terms of this trio of young perimeter players is imperative.
I don’t particularly care how effective or not these combos have been over the season given those tiny samples, nor am I especially concerned about their statistical output in the bubble environment given how limited San Antonio’s frontcourt options appear with Aldridge and Trey Lyles out of action. I decidedly do care about whether groupings of or even all three of these players appear to create workable synergies, and so should the Spurs.
Phoenix Suns: .168
Deandre Ayton’s free throw attempt rate.
Ayton is rated 34th of 41 centers who appeared in at least 750 pre-shutdown minutes in this metric. Every player behind Ayton on the list, and 10 of the 11 other players ranked 29th or lower, attempted at least 1.5 3FGA/GM.
While Ayton grew as a defender over the course of Year 2 as he regained his footing after his banned substance suspension, his offensive game remained decidedly midrange heavy. According to Cleaning the Glass, he was in the 97th percentile among bigs in terms of the proportion of his shots coming from midrange areas. This is turn was a huge factor in Ayton ranking in the 28th percentile among bigs in drawing shooting fouls.
The same touch that makes him a quality midrange shooter also means he is very comfortable at the free throw line, with a career accuracy of 75.3 percent. With the Suns chances of making the postseason being slim-to-none, seeing some improvement from Ayton in terms of finding ways to get himself more of the easy points from the line that his size, athleticism and skill level should allow will be a key indicator of progress for Phoenix.
Washington Wizards: 13.1%
Troy Brown Jr.’s time of possession percentage during the 2019-20 regular season.
With John Wall and Bradley Beal both for the restart, Brown looks to have much more of a chance to play on ball than he has thus far in his NBA career. Though Brown developed as a catch-and-shoot player in his second year, hitting 46 of 117 C&S 3-pointers (39.3 percent), hitting his long term upside necessitates unlocking some of the ballhandling and playmaking versatility he exhibited in his one year at Oregon.
With Washington’s playoff hopes limited by their stars’ absences, allowing players like Brown and Rui Hachimura to step into expanded roles for a few games is the best way to gain something useful from their time in the bubble.
For sake of context, Brown’s time of possession is sandwiched neatly between those of Eric Paschall (13.2 percent) and Montrezl Harrell (12.9 percent). In other words, extremely low for a perimeter player with designs of being a playmaker. These eight games could prove valuable evaluation time for the Wizards and developmental experience for Brown.
Grand Floridian
Oklahoma City Thunder: +31.4/100
The degree to which the Thunder outscored opponents when Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shared the floor.
It is unlikely in the extreme that such a high level of play (135.8 ORG!) is close to sustainable over longer stretches, but even at a much-reduced level of effectiveness, this success suggests OKC has a wrinkle to throw at a higher-seeded playoff opponent in the first round. Billy Donovan only used lineups featuring this trio for 850 possessions, 13.9 percent of all non-garbage time trips, per Cleaning the Glass. There should be some room to ramp that ratio up, especially without any need to preserve Paul’s legs for the long haul. Leaning into what has been one of the most effective combos in the league, this year this trio will be key to any attempt to pull an early-round upset for the Thunder.
Philadelphia 76ers: 23
Total possessions the 76ers played with Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton sharing the floor during the regular season.
With Simmons “moving to power forward” — for my money more a bit of PR to soften the blow of removing Al Horford from the starting lineup than a substantial change in Simmons’ role “— this is the starting triumvirate of ballhandlers for Philadelphia heading into the restart.
While this look is untested in a competitive setting, starting Horford alongside Embiid got a full look, and it wasn’t good, at least not offensively. As anticipated, the pair produced great defenses, with Philly only shipping 102.5 PTS/100, according to Cleaning the Glass. Unfortunately, the offense was anemic, averaging only 101.1 PTS/100, according to CTG.
The theory of this 76ers roster was to be elite defensively and use its talent level, even as ill-fitting as it might be between Simmons, Embiid and Horford, to muddle its way to average-ish offense. The move to a completely new look is an admission that muddling to the middle wasn’t going to happen. Leaving the question for the restart being whether replacing Horford with Milton adds substantially more offense through greater spacing and creation than is lost with Horford’s size and nous relegated to the bench.
Houston Rockets: 0
Competitive minutes the Rockets are likely to play with a player larger than 6-7 on the floor.
Prior to this year’s Houston experiment, only the 2013-14 Mavericks had played lineups that small as much as 10 percent of the time. As I discussed in June, whether the unprecedented dose of small ball has a built-in playoff shelf life is an open question that is key to the Rockets postseason prospects.
Is the effectiveness of the experiment intrinsic to the style of play given the skillsets of Houston’s players in terms of maximizing the impact of James Harden’s all-around creation skills? Or is it more of a regular-season edge because of the “surprise” factor whereby teams aren’t able to fully prepare for playing such an unusual opponent once every few months, but can adjust readily after a game or two in a playoff setting?
This has implications not just for the Rockets title hopes, but also for the willingness of teams to experiment going forward. A successful playoff run by Houston might give normally very risk-averse teams a bit more courage to “get weird” knowing that large deviation from conventional modes of play can and have worked.
Indiana Pacers: -3.4/100
The Pacers’ Net Rating with Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon sharing the floor.
It was only 487 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, but it’s not an encouraging number. Unlike the obvious weirdness of the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner fit — a difficulty which will be avoided by Sabonis’ likely absence for much or all of the restart with plantar fasciitis — Oladipo and Brogdon would seem to have complementary skillsets.
Both are adept on-ball creators, but neither is quite equipped to be a dominant primary creator on his own. Both have the jump shooting acumen to operate off the ball as well. So while neither is quite a true “1” and both might be limited by playing in a traditional “2” role, two “1.5s” also adds up to 3.
Unsurprisingly, the pair never quite jelled in that way without a training camp as Oladipo continued his recovery from knee surgery. A decision has yet to be made on Oladipo’s availability for the seeding and playoff games, but giving the pair another chance to mesh will provide valuable information for the Pacers in determining if they should plan on keeping them together or perhaps move one this offseason to secure a better fitting lineup.
Dallas Mavericks: +15.0
The Mavericks’ Net Rating with lineups featuring Luka Doncic/Kristaps Porzingis “small ball” lineups with Dorian Finney-Smith at the 4.
In the 492 possessions these lineups combos appeared, Dallas put up an obscene 122.2 PTS/100, combining a sterling 58.3 Effective Field Goal Percentage with a remarkably stingy 10.8 Turnover Percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. In other words, about the highest functioning offense one is ever likely to see; this combination of shooting and ball-control has the added benefit of improving the lineup’s defense.
Given the degree to which poor offensive outcomes can compromise the ensuing defensive possession, it is perhaps unsurprising that a lineup that avoids those outcomes is also elite at preventing easy chances for the opposition. Only 13 percent of Dallas’ defensive possessions were played in transition with this lineup on the floor.
Especially if they can climb to the sixth seed and avoid one of the Los Angeles teams in the first round, this sort of lineup, which can score effectively in the halfcourt — over 1.1 points per halfcourt play, in the top percentile of all lineup combos — while limiting opponent chances at easy points in transition is officially Playoff Scary if Rick Carlisle can find a way to extend the minute load of this grouping.
Brooklyn Nets: 0
The approximate impact of post-restart play on Brooklyn’s outlooks for 2020-21 and beyond.
The Brooklyn BubbleNets look nothing like the Brooklyn ActualNets will do next season, whenever that may occur. Similar to the discussion of this year’s Warriors in comparison to next year’s outlook, what are we going to learn? The Nets are playing with an interim head coach and at least four of their projected 2020-21 top six absent.
Memphis Grizzlies: 86
Total number of pull up 3-pointers attempted by Ja Morant this season.
While Zion Williamson’s impact coinciding with a strong Pelicans’ run heading into the March shutdown overshadowed Morant’s season, he will be a more than deserving Rookie of the Year winner on his own merit, in no way a “by default” choice. A major part of Morant’s effectiveness this season has been his long-range shooting.
Though his low attempt rate — only 15 percent of Morant’s attempts have been behind the arc, in the 4th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass — indicates the degree to which the long shot has mostly been a “keep the defense honest” weapon, he did hit over 38 percent on the season. However, the book on him coming out of the draft was make him shoot, and he is bound to see a lot of “under” coverage on ball screens heading into the postseason.
In that regard, his willingness to take, let alone make, 3-pointers off the bounce will be a big step in his development. Those 86 attempts tied him for 67th most in the NBA this year, while the top of the leaderboard is filled with some of the elite shot-creating guards in the game. It’s unlikely that Morant is going to become Damian Lillard in regard to shot profile, but if he can maintain anything close to the 34.9 percent accuracy he achieved on pull-up 3s while upping his volume of attempts to a more moderate level, he will become one of the most difficult point-of-attack covers in the NBA, well on the way to being the true superstar Memphis hasn’t had since perhaps Pau Gasol.
Orlando Magic: 4.8/100
The degree to which the Magic’s defense was better with Jonathan Isaac on the floor this season.
With Isaac appearing in Orlando’s final scrimmage, suiting up for the first time since injuring his knee on New Year’s Day, the Magic could be welcoming one of the NBA’s premier young defensive players back into the fold. If he does appear in seeding and eventual playoff contests, it is likely Isaac will be on some sort of minutes or load restriction. But, for a team so reliant on its defense to stay in games given their own offensive limitations, the addition could ramp up the Magic’s competitiveness in a postseason series — though Orlando would still be a heavy underdog against any of Milwaukee, Toronto or Boston in that first round.
Gran Destino
Milwaukee Bucks: 26.5%
The combined 3-point shooting of Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe in the 2019 playoffs.
The Bucks could land three spots on All-Defensive teams this year. Their performance this season has been perhaps the best of the modern era. Milwaukee’s DRTG is 8.3 PTS/100 better than league average, the largest gap since the NBA expanded to 30 teams for the 2004-05 season. Alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Bledsoe have driven that defensive performance, Lopez with his elite rim protection and Bledsoe with his ability to fight around, through and over screens to impact ballhandlers in the Bucks’ drop coverages.
As good as they have been defensively, if they do not force opponents to cover them while the Bucks are on offense, Mike Budenholzer is left with an unpalatable choice of sacrificing some of that world-class defense to create more space for Antetokounmpo. Bledsoe and Lopez making enough jumpers to keep defenses honest prevents that choice from even having to be made, and would keep the Bucks in pole position to win their first title since 1971.
Los Angeles Lakers: -4.2/100
The Lakers’ Net Rating with Anthony Davis at center and LeBron James on the bench, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Though the Lakers managed to hold the fort in lineups with Davis playing next to another big with LeBron on the bench, how tenable those lineups might be in certain playoff matchups (e.g. against the Rockets) makes this one of LA’s potential liabilities looking towards the postseason.
James has long been an iron man in playoff competition, averaging 42 minutes per game career in the postseason, with a single season-low of 38.2 in his last Miami run. At some point that has become an unrealistic expectation for the now 35-year-old. Being able to non-disastrously spell James could determine whether he can make the Finals for the first time as the Western Conference Champion.
Toronto Raptors: -32.7
The gap between Toronto’s scoring per 100 halfcourt plays and per 100 transition plays.
That the Raptors have greatly outperformed post-Kawhi expectations is unquestionable. However, their second-place record in the East likely overstates their chances of defending their title significantly. Toronto’s 5-11 record against other 50+ win pace teams was 18th in the NBA. The main reason for the Raptors’ struggles against top teams was their offense. Against bottom third teams, they had the eighth-best offense, scoring 116.5 PTS/100, but against the top tier, they were 24th, only managing 104.3 PTS/100.
This gap was in large part because of their reliance on transition play. Toronto was 18th overall in halfcourt efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass, last among the teams that finished above .500. Almost tautologically, teams which appear later in the playoffs are better. That means they tend to take care of the ball better and shoot more accurately while being more disciplined getting back on defense should they miss or suffer a live ball turnover. Toronto is thus likely to face many more halfcourt possessions than it did across the regular season, and unless it can close the efficiency gap between when it can play opportunistically and when it has to attack a set defense, its stay in the bubble could be shorter than it had hoped.
Boston Celtics: 39.9%
Jayson Tatum’s pull-up 3FG%. In this era of drop coverage, the pull-up 3 is the ace in the hole. While the shot is difficult for most, players who can connect off the dribble at 35 percent or better present tough choices for a conservative defense, while once that percentage reaches around 38, the math becomes almost untenable to “let him cook.” If this improvement from Tatum is real, he becomes one of those game-changing defense breakers that warp the floor in useful ways for his team’s entire offense.
Though Tatum attempted a reasonably high volume of pull-ups from beyond the arc this year, ninth in the league with 268, 3-point shooting is notably swingy. There is good reason to think he is more accurate than the 32.0 percent he managed over his first two seasons, but it remains to be seen what his true long term level will be. Still, if Tatum continues to take and make these high value, high difficulty shots proficiently and in volume, the Celtics become a danger even to the best defenses employing the drop coverages, such as the Eastern Conference favorite Bucks.
Denver Nuggets: 66.1% and 10.3%
Bol Bol’s respective True Shooting and Block percentages in eight G League games for the Windy City Bulls.
Ok, so far these are just scrimmages. But Bol has been one of the talks of this ramp-up period with his combination of size and apparent ease facing the basket. His efficiency hasn’t quite matched the hype, with a TS% of only 48.1. He’s still 7-2 and has easy range. It’s hard not to be intrigued.
Given Michael Malone’s reluctance to ride with young players (see also Michael Porter Jr.), Bol is unlikely to be a difference-maker for this season, but if he shows much at all in whatever time he is given, the hype train for next year’s megaball Nuggets will be hard to slow down, let alone Bol’s Rookie of the Year candidacy per the league announcing that players debuting during the seeding games and playoffs will still be eligible for next season’s award.
Utah Jazz: -9.8
The difference between Utah’s Net Rating with and without Bojan Bogdanovic on the floor.
The Croatian will miss the restart while recovering from May wrist surgery, and to say it’s a problem for the Jazz is putting it mildly. Some of this is a reflection of Bogdanovc’s shooting and shotmaking ability, but it also is as much about the dearth of other offensive options on the wings.
Bogdanovic attempted a shot or drew a trip to the free throw line on 22.4 percent of offensive plays for which he was in the game. The next highest wing on the Jazz was Georges Niang (14.9 percent), followed by Joe Ingles (11.8) and Royce O’Neale (8.0). For a team that has struggled mightily to produce offense in the playoffs in recent years, becoming overly reliant on Donovan Mitchell creating tough looks for himself, Bogdonovic was supposed to be the guy, or at least a guy to help solve than quandary. But it won’t happen this year.
Miami Heat: 34.7%
Opponents’ accuracy on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, second-lowest in the league.
According to Synergy Sports data, the Heat played zone defense on 12.6 percent of their defensive possessions, the highest in the league by some margin (Toronto was second at 7.1 percent.) Unsurprisingly, this led to opponents getting plenty of C&S 3-point looks against Miami.
Fully one-third of field goal attempts allowed by Miami were C&S 3s. This combination of high attempts and low percentage allowed indicates the tiny margin for error Miami will have as it steps up in the level of the average opponent in the postseason. At the volume allowed opponents regressing to league average accuracy on C&S 3s would result in between 1.5 and 2 “extra” points allowed per game, an extremely large swing that would be worth around five wins over an 82-game season.
Perhaps Miami’s scheme can continue to depress opponent shooting throughout the postseason, but as the Heat play better, more disciplined teams with greater shooting talent in the seeding games and beyond, keep on eye on whether teams are successfully about to shoot Miami out of those zone looks.
LA Clippers: 25.5%
The proportion of competitive possessions for which the Clippers have had Kawhi Leonard AND Paul George on the floor at the same time.
That the Clips played at a better than 56-win pace despite having the pairing that defines their team deployed so infrequently is a testament to how talented and dangerous this team is. With the two superstars on the floor, LA has a +9.9/100 Net Rating, up from +6.8/100 overall, according to Cleaning the Glass. One can only expect the percentages to invert in terms of the time the pair shares the floor, and even if that number doesn’t reach 75 percent of the competitive, it’s going to go up considerably.
Compared to every other contending team, this represents the clearest “shift into playoff gear” adjustment available this season. We generally associate this sort of “switch flipping” to teams that have already won titles or at least made deep playoff runs. This Clippers team has not done so, but of course Leonard won the championship last year, and both George and coach Doc Rivers have plenty of experience playing deep into the postseason. The latent potential here has made evaluation of the red-and-blue half of LA difficult this year, but it also makes them a popular picks as title favorites. If that comes to pass, it will be on the back of the two superstars carrying a much heavier load than they have all season.
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