EH和霍林格对你雷未来的预测

所以在哪？

Projecting the Thunder’s future with former NBA executive John Hollinger
When and if the NBA starts up again, the Thunder are going to be in playoff mode. But it’s never too early to talk about the future for a team that is basically in the honeymoon phase of a rebuild. (Shhh! Don’t say that word around Thunder folks! It’s not time!)
NBA重新开赛的时候你雷会进入季后赛模式。但是对于一个正在重建蜜月期的球队来说讨论它的未来从来不会过早。
To help talk about the Thunder’s future outlook, I reached out to my colleague John Hollinger, a national NBA writer for The Athletic who served as the vice president of basketball operations for the Memphis Grizzlies from 2012-19.
为了帮助讨论你雷的未来，我找了我的同事霍林格，一个TA写手，2012-2019在灰熊干篮球运营副总裁。
Several of The Athletic’s beat writers covering lottery-bound teams tapped Hollinger for a look-ahead piece. But of all the current playoff qualifiers, the Thunder may have the greatest case to talk about the future. This season’s success is a bonus. There are serious roster and philosophy questions to be addressed in the near future.
对于现在季后赛球队，你雷具备最好的情况来谈论未来。这个赛季的成功是一个加成。有一些严重的大名单和篮球哲学问题需要在不远的未来进行讨论
Here’s what Hollinger had to say when asked about the Thunder.

Erik Horne: John, you, as well as anyone, knows the Thunder loves their rhetoric. So when general manager Sam Presti detailed the Thunder’s approach with three R’s following the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook (reposition, replenish, rebuild), how did you assess that? Do you think that mindset applies now with the Thunder 40-24 and in the fifth spot in the Western Conference?

EH：普雷斯蒂在交易乔治和维斯布鲁克之后强调3R：重新定位，重新补充，重建。对于这点你怎么看？怎么看待雷霆对于现在位置的心态？

John Hollinger: If they haven’t already, I think they’re going to spend a lot of time studying the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns … or at least they ought to. That Suns team was very similar to the Thunder in that they were in a rebuilding mode heading into the season, but experienced unexpected success and nearly made the playoffs. (They won 48 games but finished ninth in the West, making them the best team ever to miss. They would have been the No. 3 seed in the East!)

霍林格：如果他们没准备好，我觉得他们会学习13-14赛季的太阳，或者最好他们应该会。那时候的太阳和现在的雷霆境况相似，都是处于重建位置，但是没有预料到他们取得一定的成功（太阳赢了48场，但是排西区第九，没进季后赛，但是放东区他们排第三）

However, the Suns’ unexpected success completely distorted their planning, and it led to a series of short-sighted mistakes that nuked their nascent rebuild and pushed them right down the standings, where they’ve remained ever since.

然而，太阳出乎意料的成功扭曲了他们的计划，导致他们做了一系列短视的错误，毁掉了早期的重建

Fortunately, I think the Thunder are pretty clear-eyed about where they stand and what their future path should be. The “tell” on that front is the nearly completed deal of Danilo Gallinari to Miami at the trade deadline. This was the right move – getting an asset in return for Gallinari before he could either leave as an unrestricted free agency or re-sign on a deal they might regret by the time they’re ready to contend again.

幸运的是，我觉得雷霆非常清楚他们的位置和他们应该走的前途。意大利炮在截止日差点被交易走，这个是非常正确的做法——在他裸奔或者做出会后悔的续约之前获取报酬

Now, the two operative questions are:

1. How do they leverage the advantage of all the future first-round draft picks they own (by my count they have nine from other teams in addition to all their own)?

2. How much are they willing to sacrifice short-term wins for a long-term rebuild?

现在就有两个问题：

1.如何利用好所有未来首轮这个优势

2.会牺牲多久的短期成绩来取得未来长时间的重建

Horne: To follow up on your first question: How much can the Thunder leverage what will presumably be late first-round picks in at least the next couple of drafts (2021, 2022)? What are the value of those picks? The draft can be a crapshoot and the Thunder more than likely aren’t finding their next superstar outside of the lottery, where the Rockets, Clippers and Heat will presumably be picking in the short term. It’s why Presti is preaching patience. Presti/Donovan 2026!
EH：雷霆会怎么利用好接下来两年（21,22）的选秀权？他们的价值几何？选秀是有风险的事情，而且雷霆不太可能在选秀之外获得下一个超级明星。所以普雷斯蒂非常的耐心。
The second question, to me, relies highly on the faith of a fan base and how long Chris Paul is in OKC. For all the Thunder’s picks, the only thing they control with the least bit of certainty is how bad or good they are over the next five to six years. They can’t control what happens to Houston, the Clippers and Heat. Even your Memphis teams had to have a couple of lean years to restock. Are people going to keep going to games in Oklahoma City during a bottoming out?
第二个问题取决于保罗在雷霆会留多久。雷霆能控制的是他们未来自己首轮五六年的好坏。他们不能控制404，热火，快船的。灰熊不得不烂个几年来重建，在雷霆烂的时候有多少人会继续看比赛？
And if a bottoming out is going to happen, it can’t happen without Paul elsewhere. Paul on your team is not sacrificing the short term. He’s too good, at least until the next injury.
如果准备摆烂，那保罗肯定不在了。保罗在不会牺牲短期成绩，他在下一次伤病之前都会很优秀。
Hollinger: Well, there are two positive things to say about a Paul-less Thunder team. First, the cupboard wouldn’t be totally bare. Presumably, they would get something back in a Paul trade (for one thing, the other team has to match about $40 million in salary), and those assets or players would likely be more age-appropriate for where this team is headed. Those player(s) would be joining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams and whatever the Thunder can find in the next draft and free agency. That team would likely be bad, especially minus Gallinari, but not laughingstock-level bad. There would still be a reason for fans to show up.
霍林格：保罗不在的雷霆有两个积极的事。雷霆在保罗交易中会获得一些回报，而且获得的球员在年龄上会匹配雷霆的前路。去掉意大利炮可能会让球队变差，但是不会特别烂，还是能保证票房。
For the second part, I do think there is some positive history. The Thunder were tremendously bad their first two years in OKC and still managed to sell the games out. Now obviously there was an excitement factor with a new team that is no longer there, but I do think the city punches above its weight in terms of how many fans it draws.
第二点，你雷以前就是很会给球迷画大饼来保证票房。
But your basic point is correct. It’s hard to see how the Thunder get to the places they want to go three to five years down the road without cashing in their Chris Paul stock. The value will never be higher than this summer — coming off a big year, with one year plus an option left on his deal. And as you point out, taking a step back is the best way to improve their own draft equity, which is in turn the best way for them to acquire significant players.
保罗的交易价值这个夏天是最高的。
Also, I think the Thunder have to look pretty hard at opportunistically trading some of these future picks for some players in their early 20s who can be part of their future more quickly. They tried this tactic a couple years ago and it didn’t work out great — they dealt future firsts for Enes Kanter, Dion Waiters and Jerami Grant; they got their money back on Grant but none of the three became starters. I’d be shocked if they end up picking with all nine of these first-round picks; at the very least they should use a couple of them to move up in drafts.
雷霆以前在不得不用一些未来首轮去适时地买入一些快速融入未来的球员看上去很艰难。买进大刷铁丝小格，他们都拿到了不错的合同，但是都没成首发。以后首轮的处理方式最少也该是向上交易。

Horne: Back to Paul for a second. That contract before the season was looked at as an albatross. What is its value now? Paul was playing at a Top 5 point guard level before the stoppage, but is also going to be 35 starting next season with a $44.2 million player option in his age 36 season in 2021-22.
EH：保罗的大合同在赛季前看着是沉重的负担。所以他价值几何？保罗这赛季的表现是联盟前五的PG，但是依旧要拿很多的钱
Hollinger: I think the value proposition on that contract has improved significantly based on the year he had. For starters, now you’re talking about a two-year commitment at a huge number rather than a three-year commitment. And the perception of him being in decline has been replaced by the perception that he’s still playing at a really high level. Those two things should combine to cause teams to look more favorable on that contract.
霍林格：我觉得价值在变高。现在保罗合同短了一年，而且保罗依旧状态很好。所以这两个一起考虑，这个合同看上去更加诱人了一点。
It remains a huge amount — you’d be insane to willfully pay him $44 million for his age 36 season. But teams will look a lot more favorably at the idea of, say, giving up a first or a young player to turn a bad-to-middling contract into Chris Paul. For instance, you’d have to wonder if Miami would want to wave a magic wand and turn Kelly Olynyk and cap space into Chris Paul this offseason, along with their first-round pick in the 2020 draft (they can agree to trade it, but not consummate a deal until after the actual draft happens).
给36岁保罗44M很疯狂，但是可以搭上一个年轻人来让筹码变得更好看。
There’s one other thing with Chris Paul’s situation where I see similarities with Mike Conley last season. Because of the size of his contract and the numbers of players that are likely to be involved in a salary match scenario, and because draft picks like Miami’s can be swapped right after the draft and have a “known” value (as opposed to trying to project ahead with future picks), trading him in the offseason will be vastly easier than trying to knit something together at the deadline.
保罗的处理和康利相仿，在休赛期交易走他会比在截止日交易走他更容易。
The Thunder shouldn’t trade him just to trade him — he’s still really good! But their best chance to get the most value for Chris Paul is likely to come this offseason.
雷霆不应该为了交易保罗而交易保罗，他依旧不错。但是这个夏天是交易走他的最好时机

Horne: As you pointed out in your player and team option piece this week, the Thunder only have three players with options headed into this offseason – Deonte Burton, Hamidou Diallo and Abdel Nader. To the Thunder’s advantage, they are each small options ranging from $1.6 million to $1.7 million and of little consequence to their salary cap concerns. But the scenario comes at a greater worry: The Thunder have continually allotted wing minutes to fringe, low-skill players for years now, dating to the Kevin Durant Era. Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who we will get to, which of the Thunder’s wing players – Burton, Diallo, Nader, Terrance Ferguson, Luguentz Dort — are assets or project to be part of the rebuild?
EH：夏天伯顿迪亚洛和埃乔是休赛期有选项的，但是对于快到硬工资帽的雷霆来说很麻烦。不算SGA，伯顿，迪亚洛，埃乔，2K，lu这些个侧翼哪几个应该留下来做未来计划
Hollinger: I’m not sure any of them are, but if I had to take two I would go with Dort and Nader. (There’s also the recently acquired quasi-wing Isaiah Roby, after Dallas left him on the Thunder’s doorstep, rang the bell and ran away, but he might be more of an undersized 4.) Burton isn’t an NBA player. Diallo is a crazy leaper but is so destructively bad on offense that I’m not sure he can ever be a rotation guy on a good team.
霍林格：我对这几个不太了解，但是如果我不得不选，那会是Lu和埃乔。伯顿不是NBA级别的球员，迪亚洛很能跳但是他对进攻伤害很大，所以我不确定他在好球队能不能打轮换。
Then there’s Ferguson. They’ve invested an awful lot in him, but he hasn’t developed at all offensively — if anything, he’s gotten worse. He’s a meh shooter at best, even though he only shoots when he’s wide open, and I’m seriously not sure if he dribbled once the entire season. He played next to one of the greatest point guards of all time and averaged 8.7 points per 100 on 37.2% shooting — that is pitiful.
2K有好的地方，但是他的进攻没发展，甚至更烂了。他不是个好的投手，我很不确定他有没有持球进攻过（译者注：持球进攻还是有过的，就是数量不超过一只手）。
Ferguson has some defensive skill — no muscle or instincts for the ball, but good length and lateral quickness, and that can make him situationally useful. He’s also 22 in May, so it’s worth it to ride out the fourth year to see if he gets better. But I have trouble seeing him as anything more than a break-glass defensive specialist who might be your fifth wing.
2K有一些防守技巧，不是身体流或者对球有一定本能，他的长度很好，速度很快，特定情况下很有用。他还只有22岁，所以第四年的他还是值得看一下有没有变好。不过我觉得他不会成为一个博人眼球的防守专家。
Nader isn’t anything great either, but he showed some real progress last season. He has some bounciness to him when he can load up, he has good size for a wing, and his skill level took a step forward last season. The Thunder could try to sign him to a cheap extension if they think he can be a rotation wing for them.
埃乔不是十全十美，但是确实有所进步。他活力十足，尺寸优秀，还有上升空间。雷霆可以便宜续约他。
Dort is by far the most interesting, even though like all these guys his skill level is a major question mark. He took over as OKC’s defensive stopper and his frame and lateral quickness make him a good candidate to fill that role if he can be more threatening offensively.
lu是最值得感兴趣，尽管他的技术能力也是打问号。他是防守尖兵，侧移很快，如果能加强进攻威胁，他就是填补侧翼的好人选。
For starters, Dort has to refine his stroke and get some of his moonball threes to drop in the net, but he’s built like a tank and can be tough to stop when he gets going downhill. His game is all straight lines and bullyball right now and that gets him in trouble, but he’ll turn 21 this month — time is on the Thunder’s side. Incidentally he’s still on a two-way and would be a restricted free agent if the Thunder don’t sign him before the end of this season. (Whenever that is).
lu的抄截很好，也能扔进三分。他球风直来直去是个缺点。如果雷霆赛季结束不续约他，那他在夏天会是受限制自由球员。
With all that said, it’s more than likely that the starting wings for the 2022-23 Thunder are not on the team yet. Especially if that 2022-23 team is any good.
所以结论是，你雷可能在22-23赛季之前都没一个首发侧翼。

Horne: There’s also something to be said for shooters that either didn’t work or Billy Donovan didn’t play. Doug McDermott, Alex Abrines and Anthony Morrow could shoot. But Donovan didn’t trust those guys enough to play major minutes because of defensive liabilities next to Westbrook, or in Abrines’ case, he also couldn’t stay healthy.

EH：有人说锅万废射手。刀哥，阿布和莫罗能扔，但是锅万不信任他们，不让他们打主要的时间，因为他们不能分担维斯布鲁克的防守任务，在阿布这个特例里，他甚至不能保证健康。

OK, on to SGA. Donovan and the Thunder are adamant he’s a point guard. I agree with that from the standpoint of being able to run an offense and create his own shot without being a high usage player, but I still have questions about how he gets his shot against elite defenders and how he makes teammates better. I think the assist totals will rise with more responsibility sans Paul and Dennis Schröder, but the shot makes me wonder. Is SGA the Thunder’s point guard of the future?

让我们谈谈SGA。锅万和雷霆觉得他是PG，我同意他在不吃球权的情况下能保证他的进攻和创造自己的投篮机会，但是我还是对他在面对精英防守人的时候还能创造出投篮空间，也不能让他的队友变得更好。助攻责任还是在保罗和施罗德身上。所以SGA还是雷霆未来的首发1号位吗？

Hollinger: I think he absolutely is. Scouting him at Kentucky, where he was the unquestioned point guard and didn’t have to share it with somebody like Chris Paul or Lou Williams, I realized he definitely seemed at his best on the ball. He’s really crafty and slippery, and while he doesn’t pass it like CP3, who does? I don’t worry about him getting his shot in the paint as much as how low and slow his 3-point release is — he has to speed that up to be more of a threat to fire behind screens. Everyone we talked to that year had amazing things to say about him in terms of work ethic, personality, etc., so that should help him too.

霍林格：我觉得是。他在肯塔基时期，球探就觉得他毫无疑问是PG。他不需要变得和保罗芦苇一样。他是技术流，打球很活，然而他传球不像保罗，那谁能做到保罗的传球？我不关心他在油漆区的投篮和他三分出手又低又慢，他必须在借掩护作威胁进攻上有快速的进步。

For me, the real question about SGA is his ceiling. He’s not a freak athlete or a lights-out shooter — how good can he be without those two things? There’s a big difference in outcomes for OKC if he becomes an All-NBA type player versus just a “really good, quasi All-Star point guard” in the Goran Dragic/Mike Conley mold. But I think the latter is the much more likely outcome.

对我来说，最大的问题是SGA的上限。他没有怪物级别的身体素质也没有精英级别的投射，他没有这两样会有多好？在成为全明星和真的好球员例如德拉季奇和康利上是有区别的。但是我觉得最近他可能会有这个结果。

Horne: Adams and Schröder seem like difficult players to peg in terms of value on their next contract. On one hand, they are both 26 and entering their primes. On the other, they are certainly going to be players who rank below that first wave of superstars in a loaded 2021 free-agent class. What are their values? Are the Thunder better off re-signing Adams at a lower annual salary rather than trying to dip into free agency with little track record of signing major names?
EH：亚当斯和施罗德不容易判断他们的价值。他们只有26岁，在21这个自由球员大年合同到期。他们价值多少？在雷霆几乎签不到大牌的情况下会不会给亚当斯一个更低均薪的续约合同？
Hollinger: If I were the Thunder I would try to extend Adams at a lower number. Nobody is paying non-All-Star centers $25M a year anymore, so the pay cut may be a tough thing for him to swallow, but he’s a good two-way center who had arguably his best season. They’re going to be better off keeping him than overpaying somebody else.
霍林格：如果我是雷管我会尝试续约低价续约亚当斯。没人会给一个非全明星中锋25M的工资，所以成本会很低，但是他是一个不错的双向中锋，打出了他的最好赛季。比起溢价合同给别人，不如保留着他。
Schroder is having the best season of his career — at both ends — and will be a contender for the Sixth Man Award, but I’d be more nervous about paying him. For one, you already have Gilgeous-Alexander, so how much are you willing to shell out for a reserve? Second, I’d want to see him play another year at this level before I took out my checkbook. I think OKC’s best bet is to trade him while he still has a year left on his contract and get more youth or picks.
施罗德也打出了他的最佳赛季，可能会成为最佳第六人，但是给他大合同需要三思。第一，你有SGA了，所以你给一个他的替代品多少钱？第二，在给合同之前我更愿意再看一年他的表现。我觉得最好是交易走还剩一年合同的施罗德来换选秀权和年轻人。
Free-agency wise, the one good thing for the Thunder is I don’t think either player will be Plan A, or even Plan C, for the teams that have cap room. Even if both players become unrestricted free agents, the Thunder would seemingly have a halfway decent chance at keeping them if they wished. I think the market value for both will end up in the $15 million to $20 million range, assuming the cap doesn’t radically change as a result of present circumstances.
在自由球员上，我觉得对雷霆最好的是没什么球员会考虑他们（毕竟又小又破的俄村，笑），所以空间会很足。就算两个人合同年，雷霆还是有机会提前保留他们，如果他们愿意的话。我觉得均薪在15M-20M之间。

Horne: Speaking of free agency, Donovan is one of the few active coaches without a contract entering this offseason. While Donovan deserves credit for the work he’s done this season in finding the Thunder’s best lineups, multiple scouts I’ve spoken with are still skeptical of how much of the success this season is his influence or more a product of the Paul-for-Westbrook swap. The Thunder believes in Donovan but what does an extension for him look like with that uncertainty in mind?
EH：锅万夏天合同到期。然而在完成找到雷霆最合适的轮换之后锅万值得一个继续工作的保障，我交流过的很多球探都怀疑在乔治和维斯布鲁克走之后的这支成功的雷霆还有多少锅万的印记和影响。雷霆相信锅万，但是在不确定思路的情况下怎么谈续约
Hollinger: It’s all in the eye of the beholder. It seems a bit unusual that Presti fired Scott Brooks and then replaced him with a guy who … is kinda like Scott Brooks. Donovan isn’t going to go crazy with weird schemes or unusual lineups, and isn’t regarded as some kind of clipboard genius. But he’s really consistent day to day and I think that he’s able to keep his best players onside because of that.
霍林格：这都在旁观者的眼里。普雷斯蒂炒掉SB然后又找了一个有点像SB的人。锅万不瞎搞轮换和奇怪的比赛计划，也不是战术板天才。但是他日复一日地始终如一，然后藉此保持他最好的球员。
Certainly he got a lot out of a team that relied heavily on its five best players and didn’t have a whole lot behind them; in particular, he found a way to make a three-guard closing lineup work and basically hid a non-scorer in the starting lineup all season. On the downside, the last two playoff series (against Utah in 2018 and Portland in 2019) probably weren’t his finest hour.
他确实和很多其他队一样会很依赖主力五人，尤其是他这赛季找到了一个能让三后卫一起发挥并且藏住一个首发不得分的球员。在不好的地方，那就是上两个赛季的季后赛对他而言不是一个最好的时光。
I think the other question the Thunder have to ask is: Who are they getting that’s better? Presti hand-picked Donovan from Florida five years ago and his teams have largely met expectations until this season, when it vastly exceeded them.
我觉得雷霆还有一个问题：是谁让他们变得更好？普雷斯蒂五年前从佛大找来锅万，直到这个赛季他的球队很大地完成了预期。
Ultimately, I think the only reason to change direction is if the Thunder felt the job itself had fundamentally changed. Might it be better to go after a more player-development focused coach (Hello, Kenny Atkinson!), if the team is going to rebuild around young players and needs to show more from its development program than it has the past half decade? That’s the best case I could make for changing skippers right now.
最后，我觉得改变方向仅有的一个原因是判断主教练这个工作是否根本上地更改了。如果在过去的十几年内，这个队需要用年轻人重建，让年轻人更好地发展起来，那能更好地关注于培养球员的教练（你好，阿金）可能是更好的选择？
Donovan, obviously, might have some suitors as a “coach free agent” as well. But there may not be that many open jobs because of what’s likely to be a brief offseason window. And the one open job we know of — in Brooklyn — would seem to be a no-hoper given that Kevin Durant already walked on him once.
锅万显然会因为合同到期会有一些追求者。但是因为短暂的休赛期，可能没有什么公开的工作机会。然后唯一公开的工作机会在篮网，因为杜兰特离开过他所以不会成行。

Horne: Quick hitters before we go: Where is Noel playing next season and for how much? And give me your thoughts on intern-to-pro Darius Bazley and how he was viewed in the draft process?
EH：诺尔下赛季多少钱，会在哪里？你对被子里的看法和选秀时是怎么被关注到的？
Hollinger: On Nerlens, I’ll say he’s back with the Thunder for $5M a year. He’s a plus backup, but I don’t think anybody trusts him enough to pay him as anything more than that.
霍林格：诺尔可能会和雷霆签1年500W的合同。他是个不错的替补，但是我不觉得有人会给他多于500W的钱。
Bazley was a bit of a black box for me because I wasn’t able to see him during my last year in Memphis while he was hiding out, and by the time the draft prep got heavy I wasn’t in the decision making process. He was, very briefly, a Grizzly, which is an interesting trade in retrospect. The Thunder had Paul George at the time and didn’t know he was doing to ask for a trade, and had a ready-made “win now” guy sitting there for them in Brandon Clarke … and still went for the toolsy, low-skill project guy.
我去年在孟菲斯工作的时候就没见过被子里，所以他在黑箱里。在选秀的时候我也没了解过他。简单来说，他很灰熊人（译者注：我不知道霍林格是什么想法，grizzly是灰熊的意思，难道想表达他是灰熊的菜？反正我先这么翻译了）。那会乔治还在雷霆，雷霆不知道他想跑，雷霆那会想选即战力强的克拉克（译者注：这段其实没太看懂，雷霆真的有意过克拉克？反正愿意斧正的话我会修改），然后还是选了一个低技术的人。
Getting back to Bazley, however. I saw him in the McDonald’s game the year before and he was all skin and bones, with some clear length and athleticism but also has a shaky shot and iffy, high handle. I was surprised how much he filled out physically by the time he started playing games for the Thunder this season. It seemed they were determined to get him minutes no matter what, and while he didn’t exactly shine, he didn’t look out of place on the court either — which is kind of a victory when you’re a 19-year-old who just jumped from high school to the NBA. He rebounded respectably, showed some real shot-blocking skill, and didn’t get abused on defense.
说回被子里。然而我只在麦当劳比赛里看到过他，他有很好的长度，运动力不错，但是投篮很不稳，还有他可疑的持球能力。我很惊讶于他打首发的时候对抗上的完成度很高。好像雷霆在保证他的上场时间上是很坚定的，即使他打的没那么好。他对球场上的关注也没那么上心，19岁从高中直接到NBA对他而言是一种胜利。他的篮板力值得尊敬，展现了一定的盖帽能力，在防守上也不差。
Obviously, he needs to shoot better — 37.2% won’t cut it, including just 44.6% on 2s. In particular, he has to get himself more shots around the basket … either on his own or with cutting/running/effort plays. Thunder fans have seen this movie before but … if he straightens out his offensive game he has a chance to be a long-term answer at the 4.
显然他需要更好的投射，尤其他喜欢篮下作业。他如果能提高进攻那就是雷霆四号位的答案，这个雷霆球迷已经看过了。

我觉得是培养的问题，绿军的布朗技术也是慢慢打磨出来的。技术型虽稳，但是上限有限。