Robert Williams out with knee injury: What the center's absence means for the Boston Celtics
How will an injury to starting center Robert Williams III affect the Boston Celtics' ability to contend in the Eastern Conference?
After Williams left the Celtics' blowout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday with a knee injury, tests Monday revealed a torn meniscus, which will sideline him the remainder of the regular season at a minimum.
The win was Boston's 12th by 20-plus points since Jan. 23, as many as any other East team has all season (the Milwaukee Bucks are second overall in the conference with 12 behind the Celtics' season-long total of 15; no other East team has more than the Charlotte Hornets' nine).
With Boston also showing the ability to win closer games, the team has climbed into a tie for first in the East with the Miami Heat, a half-game up on the Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers as part of a tier of teams competing for the top two seeds in the conference.
The Celtics had become a favorite of statistical projections and a trendy pick to win the East. How does Williams' injury change the equation? Let's break it down.
Williams' massive importance to Boston
Although Williams is only sixth on the Celtics in scoring at 10.0 points per game, behind the departed Dennis Schroder as well as reserve Derrick White, that doesn't measure his key role in Boston's success.
Williams is a linchpin of Boston's league-leading defense. The Celtics are allowing an NBA-low 105.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and have been far better relative to everyone else as the season has gone on. Since the start of the new year, Boston's 104.3 defensive rating is 4.5 points per 100 possessions lower than the second-place team (the Dallas Mavericks at 108.8).
In part, the Celtics' defense evolved when first-year head coach Ime Udoka made the unconventional choice to have Williams defend most opponents' power forwards with Al Horford typically cross-matching on centers. That took Williams out of the point of attack on most pick-and-rolls, freeing him to offer help in the paint.
The strategy has worked for a couple of reasons. The first is Williams' rim protection. Undersized for a center at a listed 6-foot-8, he's nonetheless one of the league's top paint defenders. In his first season as a full-time starter, Williams ranks second in the league with 2.2 blocks per game.
Still, stashing Williams on power forwards wouldn't work if smaller, quicker opponents were able to target him on the perimeter. That's not the case because of Williams' versatility and mobility for his size. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Williams has switched 283 on-ball screens this season, eighth most among players defending the screener.
Quantifying Williams' importance to the Boston defense is difficult because the team has so many quality defenders. There's been debate whether Williams or teammate Marcus Smart is the Celtics' best Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Adjusted plus-minus data favors Williams, who ranks 11th in single-year RAPM according to NBAshotcharts.com. (White and Jayson Tatum rank in the top 10; Smart has a similar but slightly lower rating.)
Celtics center Robert Williams III suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee, the team announced Monday. AP Photo/Steven Senne
How Boston replaces Williams
The silver lining for the Celtics is they have the depth to handle a short-term Williams absence. At the deadline, Boston brought back Daniel Theis, who started at center before being traded at the 2021 deadline and opening the door for Williams to start.
As the Celtics' fourth big man when everyone is healthy, Theis has averaged 13.9 minutes per game and logged a handful of DNP-CDs since the deadline, but he is capable of playing a larger role in Williams' absence. Between Theis, Horford and reliable reserve Grant Williams, Udoka still has enough frontcourt options to cover without Robert Williams.
Still, Williams' absence will likely be felt at both ends of the court. Theis is versatile but not the same kind of rim protector as Williams. And at the other end, Theis doesn't bring the same kind of vertical spacing as Williams, one of the league's top lob threats. (He's fourth in the league with 157 dunks, according to Stathead.com.) Williams has shot 74% from the field as compared to Theis' 60% since returning to Boston. The Celtics will also miss Williams' ability to facilitate from the high post.
In all likelihood, Boston will play smaller in Williams' absence. Udoka could finish games with Horford as the only big man on the court, sliding Tatum and Jaylen Brown to forward with Smart and White in the backcourt. Such lineups are heavier on shooting and playmaking but limited on the defensive glass.
Williams' course of treatment is key
The lingering question is just how long Williams will be sidelined, which depends on the method of treatment he and the team's medical staff choose. Depending on the size of the meniscus tear, there are a handful of possible options, including attempting to treat the injury with rest and play through it -- something Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers did during last year's playoffs.
A more severe tear would require surgery and still leave multiple options. If a repair is possible, it gives Williams the better chance to avoid long-term consequences from the meniscus injury but would assuredly prevent him from playing again this season. By contrast, removing the affected area of the meniscus would potentially get Williams back within four to six weeks, allowing him to rejoin the team if the Celtics advance in the playoffs.
One counterintuitive consequence of a short-term Williams absence would be making a top-two seed in the East less desirable. That would mean a potential first-round matchup against the dangerous Brooklyn Nets, who now have Kyrie Irving available for home games. Because the Nets will surely be in the play-in tournament, both the first and second seeds could potentially face them in the opening round, meaning dropping to third is the only way to guarantee avoiding Brooklyn.
At full strength, Boston likely wouldn't be afraid of facing the Nets. The Celtics beat Brooklyn at home on March 6 with Irving and Kevin Durant both in the Nets' lineup. With Williams sidelined, Boston would surely want to put off a showdown against Brooklyn as long as possible. That could take care of itself naturally if the Celtics aren't as effective down the stretch.
For now, Boston will have to hope Williams' injury lends itself to a course of treatment that allows him to return in the playoffs. If so, the Celtics' chances of winning the East may not be severely diminished.
Still, it represents the biggest bump in the road for a Boston team that has been cruising.
Robert Williams out with knee injury: What the center's absence means for the Boston Celtics
How will an injury to starting center Robert Williams III affect the Boston Celtics' ability to contend in the Eastern Conference?
After Williams left the Celtics' blowout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday with a knee injury, tests Monday revealed a torn meniscus, which will sideline him the remainder of the regular season at a minimum.
The win was Boston's 12th by 20-plus points since Jan. 23, as many as any other East team has all season (the Milwaukee Bucks are second overall in the conference with 12 behind the Celtics' season-long total of 15; no other East team has more than the Charlotte Hornets' nine).
With Boston also showing the ability to win closer games, the team has climbed into a tie for first in the East with the Miami Heat, a half-game up on the Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers as part of a tier of teams competing for the top two seeds in the conference.
The Celtics had become a favorite of statistical projections and a trendy pick to win the East. How does Williams' injury change the equation? Let's break it down.
Williams' massive importance to Boston
Although Williams is only sixth on the Celtics in scoring at 10.0 points per game, behind the departed Dennis Schroder as well as reserve Derrick White, that doesn't measure his key role in Boston's success.
Williams is a linchpin of Boston's league-leading defense. The Celtics are allowing an NBA-low 105.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and have been far better relative to everyone else as the season has gone on. Since the start of the new year, Boston's 104.3 defensive rating is 4.5 points per 100 possessions lower than the second-place team (the Dallas Mavericks at 108.8).
In part, the Celtics' defense evolved when first-year head coach Ime Udoka made the unconventional choice to have Williams defend most opponents' power forwards with Al Horford typically cross-matching on centers. That took Williams out of the point of attack on most pick-and-rolls, freeing him to offer help in the paint.
The strategy has worked for a couple of reasons. The first is Williams' rim protection. Undersized for a center at a listed 6-foot-8, he's nonetheless one of the league's top paint defenders. In his first season as a full-time starter, Williams ranks second in the league with 2.2 blocks per game.
Still, stashing Williams on power forwards wouldn't work if smaller, quicker opponents were able to target him on the perimeter. That's not the case because of Williams' versatility and mobility for his size. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Williams has switched 283 on-ball screens this season, eighth most among players defending the screener.
Quantifying Williams' importance to the Boston defense is difficult because the team has so many quality defenders. There's been debate whether Williams or teammate Marcus Smart is the Celtics' best Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Adjusted plus-minus data favors Williams, who ranks 11th in single-year RAPM according to NBAshotcharts.com. (White and Jayson Tatum rank in the top 10; Smart has a similar but slightly lower rating.)
Celtics center Robert Williams III suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee, the team announced Monday. AP Photo/Steven Senne
How Boston replaces Williams
The silver lining for the Celtics is they have the depth to handle a short-term Williams absence. At the deadline, Boston brought back Daniel Theis, who started at center before being traded at the 2021 deadline and opening the door for Williams to start.
As the Celtics' fourth big man when everyone is healthy, Theis has averaged 13.9 minutes per game and logged a handful of DNP-CDs since the deadline, but he is capable of playing a larger role in Williams' absence. Between Theis, Horford and reliable reserve Grant Williams, Udoka still has enough frontcourt options to cover without Robert Williams.
Still, Williams' absence will likely be felt at both ends of the court. Theis is versatile but not the same kind of rim protector as Williams. And at the other end, Theis doesn't bring the same kind of vertical spacing as Williams, one of the league's top lob threats. (He's fourth in the league with 157 dunks, according to Stathead.com.) Williams has shot 74% from the field as compared to Theis' 60% since returning to Boston. The Celtics will also miss Williams' ability to facilitate from the high post.
In all likelihood, Boston will play smaller in Williams' absence. Udoka could finish games with Horford as the only big man on the court, sliding Tatum and Jaylen Brown to forward with Smart and White in the backcourt. Such lineups are heavier on shooting and playmaking but limited on the defensive glass.
Williams' course of treatment is key
The lingering question is just how long Williams will be sidelined, which depends on the method of treatment he and the team's medical staff choose. Depending on the size of the meniscus tear, there are a handful of possible options, including attempting to treat the injury with rest and play through it -- something Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers did during last year's playoffs.
A more severe tear would require surgery and still leave multiple options. If a repair is possible, it gives Williams the better chance to avoid long-term consequences from the meniscus injury but would assuredly prevent him from playing again this season. By contrast, removing the affected area of the meniscus would potentially get Williams back within four to six weeks, allowing him to rejoin the team if the Celtics advance in the playoffs.
One counterintuitive consequence of a short-term Williams absence would be making a top-two seed in the East less desirable. That would mean a potential first-round matchup against the dangerous Brooklyn Nets, who now have Kyrie Irving available for home games. Because the Nets will surely be in the play-in tournament, both the first and second seeds could potentially face them in the opening round, meaning dropping to third is the only way to guarantee avoiding Brooklyn.
At full strength, Boston likely wouldn't be afraid of facing the Nets. The Celtics beat Brooklyn at home on March 6 with Irving and Kevin Durant both in the Nets' lineup. With Williams sidelined, Boston would surely want to put off a showdown against Brooklyn as long as possible. That could take care of itself naturally if the Celtics aren't as effective down the stretch.
For now, Boston will have to hope Williams' injury lends itself to a course of treatment that allows him to return in the playoffs. If so, the Celtics' chances of winning the East may not be severely diminished.
Still, it represents the biggest bump in the road for a Boston team that has been cruising.
