At the start of the 2019-20 college basketball season, James Wiseman of Memphis was considered by many to be the clear top big man in this class, with a strong chance to go No. 1 overall. With the 2020 NBA draft nearing (Nov. 18 on ESPN), could USC's Onyeka Okongwu end up supplanting Wiseman at the NBA level?
Our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five bigs in the 2020, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
Who do you have as the No. 1 big in this class, and why?
Pelton: James Wiseman
I don't feel strongly either way about Wiseman vs. Okongwu, but would lean toward Wiseman as being the better prospect independent of fit.
Wiseman's weak statistical projection in my model is almost entirely the product of his play during the 2017 Nike EYBL AAU circuit as a rising junior. Compared to other centers picked in the top 10 who have played in the EYBL, based on statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information, Wiseman wasn't nearly as efficient a scorer. (I've also included his 2018 EYBL statistics for reference, though those are not included in his projection because I found that season's stats were not predictive of college performance.)
How does James Wiseman stack up?
Comparing Wiseman to other centers picked in the top 10 who have played in the EYBL.
NAMEDRAFTPICKEYBL YEARUSAGE2P%REB%BLK%Jahlil Okafor201532012.204.662.159.028Jahlil Okafor201532013.240.670.195.027Deandre Ayton201812016.235.651.197.049Mohamed Bamba201862016.159.661.200.078Wendell Carter201872015.182.590.150.041Wendell Carter201872016.214.673.190.079James Wiseman2020??2017.239.592.173.093James Wiseman2020??2018.280.593.149.047Source: NBA.com/stats
In an NBA context, I don't think Wiseman's shooting percentage will be a big issue as long as teams view him primarily as a pick-and-roll finisher rather than asking him to create one-on-one. Wiseman's accuracy certainly wasn't an issue in his abbreviated, three-game career at Memphis. Wiseman shot 80% on 2-point attempts, including 5-of-7 (71%) against Oregon in the one game he played against equivalent competition.
I do have concerns about Wiseman's defensive motor. There's a chance he ends up in the bucket of centers like Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside whose prodigious production doesn't necessarily translate to their teams playing much better with them on the court.
Still, the chance that Wiseman can channel his combination of size and strength into being a dominant rim protector capable of playing in space and an efficient scorer out of the pick-and-roll and off second chances makes him my top prospect among big men.
Givony: Onyeka Okongwu
Schmitz and I have expressed considerable skepticism around Wiseman's candidacy as the No. 1 pick in the draft for the better part of two years now. While Pelton rightfully points to his somewhat underwhelming showing on the Nike EYBL circuit, Wiseman's senior year of high school was equally unconvincing, as he had a few pedestrian showings against better competition. (The accuracy of the EYBL data might also warrant more skepticism than college or international stats.)
I don't think Wiseman did enough to quell the concerns about his winning impact, feel for the game or motor in his three college games, making him susceptible to being overtaken by other players with a stronger track record. That does not appear likely to materialize in reality, though. League insiders are operating under the assumption that Wiseman is the favorite to go No. 2 if the Golden State Warriors keep the pick. And if a team trades up to No. 2 to select a player other than Wiseman, Charlotte is likely to snatch him up at No. 3.
But, to me, Okongwu is a far more impactful, engaged and versatile defender, and he possesses just as much offensive upside thanks to his soft touch, excellent hands, superior passing, strong feel and likelihood to extend his range. Wiseman has far more impressive physical tools, but Okongwu is a better basketball player in a more proven sample of 28 college games.
Schmitz: Onyeka Okongwu
I'm with Jonathan. Okongwu is one of the best 19-year-old pick-and-roll defenders I've ever evaluated. While he can switch onto guards in a pinch, I'm more impressed by the nuance he already displays defending in drop situations, playing the bluff-and-recover game that often takes elite bigs years to master.
He might not have Wiseman's massive standing reach or the elite frame of a typical top-five center, but his decision-making and nearly picture-perfect verticality make up for that. He gravitates to the ball as effortlessly as any 6-foot-9 center I've scouted in recent years. Teams love that he won't get played off the floor against jumbo lineups or small-ball teams. I do think he'll need time to fine-tune his perimeter game offensively, but the defensive versatility gives him an incredibly high floor and a clear role early.
You could argue Wiseman has the higher upside of the two given his otherworldly tools, agility and flashes of skill as a shooter and ball handler. It's hard for me to ignore how Wiseman defended around the rim in spurts during the Nike Hoop Summit, registering six blocks in 22 minutes. Or how he played with great energy and skill on both ends at the Jordan Brand Classic.
Finding that balance between being a run-and-jump big and skill-oriented center has always been a sticking point for Wiseman, and where he lands should ultimately play a large role in his development.
What is the rest of your top-five big man rankings?
Schmitz: (2) James Wiseman, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Jalen Smith, (5) Precious Achiuwa
Though scouts' concerns about Toppin's defense are absolutely valid -- especially sliding with modern forwards or bodying up centers -- I don't see quite as big of a gap between Toppin and Okongwu/Wiseman as most. Toppin has a strong case as an inside-out offensive juggernaut who will contend for Rookie of the Year while mostly playing the 4, which is an entirely different role than the other two bigs.
I see Toppin as a ready-made starter who fits the modern game perfectly offensively and will thrive in the regular season. He's an elite north-south runner and arguably the best lob-catcher in the draft when at the 5, yet he can pop into catch-and-shoot 3s with ease at the 4. Toppin also has a tremendous feel for playing out of handoffs. While he benefited from playing the 5 with skill around him at Dayton, Toppin is also a huge reason that offense was so fluid with his willingness to keep the ball moving side to side, sprint into screens and make himself available without needing plays called for him.
I'm really high on Jalen Smith out of Maryland. At 6-10 and with a 7-2 wingspan, he's wiry strong with a picture-perfect stroke (37% on 3s as a sophomore) and shot-blocking chops (2.4 per game). Even if he's not a great ball handler, passer or the most consistent perimeter defender right now, he's versatile enough to play either big spot. He's someone I'd start thinking about at the back end of the lottery because of how coveted 3s and blocks are in today's game.
If Achiuwa can buy into being a consistent roller and mismatch driver like Montrezl Harrell on offense with Bam Adebayo's defensive potential, he could absolutely outplay his draft slot.
Pelton: (2) Onyeka Okongwu, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Xavier Tillman, (5) Jalen Smith
However you rank them, I don't think there's much question that Wiseman and Okongwu are the top two bigs in this year's draft for all the reasons Jonathan and Mike laid out.
I'm a bit lower on Toppin. Between his above-the-rim finishing and the soft touch he showed from 3-point range last season, I suspect Toppin will become a quality offensive player in the NBA. I'm more skeptical of his ability to find a position defensively. I think he'll be challenged to defend teams that play smaller 4s, and Toppin isn't capable enough as a rim protector to play extended minutes at the 5. As a result, I think Toppin could end up more of a part-time specialist who's productive in his minutes.
Tillman vs. Smith is an interesting question to me. Smith is a year younger, was picked All-Big Ten first team ahead of Tillman (a second-team choice), is taller and a better shooter. All of that helps explain why he's considered likely to go in the middle of the first round while Tillman will probably last until the second round. Still, there's a compelling case for Tillman over Smith.
It was Tillman -- not Smith, Toppin or Okongwu -- who led all Division I regulars in Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric, which tends to favor big men. Tillman also handed out assists three times more frequently on a per-play basis, indicative of his superior feel for the game. Smith's assist rate would put him among the bottom 20 NBA-bound players in my database. Given that concern, I'd favor Tillman.
Givony: (2) James Wiseman, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Precious Achiuwa, (5) Aleksej Pokusevski
I share Pelton's concerns with Toppin's defense. Like a lot of top prospects in this year's draft, his exact measurements are a point of interest, as he declined to participate in any part of the combine. I've seen reports of his wingspan ranging from 6-10 (measured at last summer's Nike Skills Academy) to a self-reported 7-2, which reportedly was measured by a team drafting in the top five. That makes a big difference for the reasons Pelton stated.
Toppin plays an upright style of defense with a high center of gravity that makes it difficult for him to defend on the perimeter, which he'll likely have to do given his size. That was masked at Dayton by playing almost exclusively at center with a great deal of shooting and playmaking around him. I believe in Toppin's scoring ability translating seamlessly to the NBA level, but he'll have to be paired with the right type of big man to not end up as a liability defensively. Still, it would be surprising to see him fall out of the top five.
Achiuwa will almost certainly be the next big off the board. He's arguably the most athletic ot this group beside Toppin, and he became a complete game-changer defensively as the season moved along. His 9-1 standing reach and chiseled 234-pound frame will allow him to play the center position with ease (like his three closest physical comps: Amar'e Stoudemire, Tristan Thompson and Bam Adebayo), but he has outstanding feet switching onto smaller players on the perimeter. It wouldn't be surprising to see him check an opposing team's best playmaker, giving him coveted versatility in today's NBA. His skill level and feel for the game are a major work in progress, but I'll bet on everything I've heard about his approach to the game helping him long term.
Pokusevski can hardly be described as a traditional big man, weighing just around 200 pounds, but he didn't neatly fit into any of our other positional categories. Whichever team drafts him will hope he can eventually fill out enough to be a full-time, 7-foot power forward.
He's the youngest player in the draft at 18, and possibly the least experienced against quality competition, yet he's arguably the most uniquely versatile. At his best with the ball in his hands, Pokusevski likes to push off the defensive glass, play pick-and-roll with terrific vision, and make shots running off screens and pulling off the dribble. His frame is at least a few years away from being NBA-ready, and he lacks a degree of toughness and engagement on both ends of the floor.
A true wild card in terms of where he might be drafted, Pokusevski raised eyebrows when he decided last month to leave the U.S. for Greece, declining to participate in all parts of the pre-draft process. That indicated to many teams that he has a solid handle on his draft range. He's getting some late lottery buzz lately, with the Oklahoma City Thunder emerging as a possible suitor. They pick at No. 25 but have every asset needed to move up if necessary.
What projected second-round big man do you find the most intriguing?
Schmitz: Reggie Perry
Watching Reggie Perry shine during 3-on-3 action at Impact Basketball in Las Vegas last month woke me up to how badly I was sleeping on him.
I admittedly overscouted Perry throughout his career. He's far from a perfect prospect, as his defensive effort and willingness to get others involved were real question marks at times. But his game appeared far more modern than I ever remembered as he stepped into 3s smoothly and looked comfortable playing out of handoffs. At 6-10, Perry is one of the strongest players in the draft and has playmaking potential. The MVP of the Under-19 World Championships and the SEC co-player of the year at just 20 years old while at Mississippi State, Perry has the résumé, body and evolving skill to ultimately become a second-round steal.
Givony: Udoka Azubuike
Azubuike was the big winner of the measurements portion of the combine. Azubuike has shed 14 pounds from his now 260-pound frame since 2018. He also measured an outrageous 7-7.25 wingspan and broke the record for centers by testing a 37-inch standing vertical (along with a 41-inch max vertical). Azubuike already had quite a bit to point to résumé-wise as the NCAA's all-time leader in field goal percentage and the clear-cut best player on the No. 1 team in college basketball. The marked improvement he showed defensively was a huge reason for Kansas' dominance this season.
Pelton: Paul Reed
I'm not the first to make this comparison, but it's hard to understand why Achiuwa is a possible lottery pick and Reed a possible second-rounder given how much more productive Reed was last season. Despite having three years of college experience, Reed is just three months older than Achiuwa, a one-and-done prospect.
Yes, Achiuwa is the more explosive athlete, and he's probably got an edge in switchability -- a plus for both players, who move well for their size. Aside from that, Reed was the more efficient shooter (making a higher percentage of his 2-point attempts) while accumulating more blocks and steals. Along with Duke's Javin DeLaurier, a far less polished offensive player who's not in the ESPN top 100, Reed is one of just two players in this year's draft projected to average at least 2 steals per 100 plays and block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts in the NBA.
Even if he never proves more than a defensive specialist in the NBA, Reed is worth the gamble early in the second round.
At the start of the 2019-20 college basketball season, James Wiseman of Memphis was considered by many to be the clear top big man in this class, with a strong chance to go No. 1 overall. With the 2020 NBA draft nearing (Nov. 18 on ESPN), could USC's Onyeka Okongwu end up supplanting Wiseman at the NBA level?
Our experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton rank their top five bigs in the 2020, break down the differences in their picks and select one key second-rounder to watch.
Who do you have as the No. 1 big in this class, and why?
Pelton: James Wiseman
I don't feel strongly either way about Wiseman vs. Okongwu, but would lean toward Wiseman as being the better prospect independent of fit.
Wiseman's weak statistical projection in my model is almost entirely the product of his play during the 2017 Nike EYBL AAU circuit as a rising junior. Compared to other centers picked in the top 10 who have played in the EYBL, based on statistics compiled by Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information, Wiseman wasn't nearly as efficient a scorer. (I've also included his 2018 EYBL statistics for reference, though those are not included in his projection because I found that season's stats were not predictive of college performance.)
How does James Wiseman stack up?
Comparing Wiseman to other centers picked in the top 10 who have played in the EYBL.
NAMEDRAFTPICKEYBL YEARUSAGE2P%REB%BLK%Jahlil Okafor201532012.204.662.159.028Jahlil Okafor201532013.240.670.195.027Deandre Ayton201812016.235.651.197.049Mohamed Bamba201862016.159.661.200.078Wendell Carter201872015.182.590.150.041Wendell Carter201872016.214.673.190.079James Wiseman2020??2017.239.592.173.093James Wiseman2020??2018.280.593.149.047Source: NBA.com/stats
In an NBA context, I don't think Wiseman's shooting percentage will be a big issue as long as teams view him primarily as a pick-and-roll finisher rather than asking him to create one-on-one. Wiseman's accuracy certainly wasn't an issue in his abbreviated, three-game career at Memphis. Wiseman shot 80% on 2-point attempts, including 5-of-7 (71%) against Oregon in the one game he played against equivalent competition.
I do have concerns about Wiseman's defensive motor. There's a chance he ends up in the bucket of centers like Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside whose prodigious production doesn't necessarily translate to their teams playing much better with them on the court.
Still, the chance that Wiseman can channel his combination of size and strength into being a dominant rim protector capable of playing in space and an efficient scorer out of the pick-and-roll and off second chances makes him my top prospect among big men.
Givony: Onyeka Okongwu
Schmitz and I have expressed considerable skepticism around Wiseman's candidacy as the No. 1 pick in the draft for the better part of two years now. While Pelton rightfully points to his somewhat underwhelming showing on the Nike EYBL circuit, Wiseman's senior year of high school was equally unconvincing, as he had a few pedestrian showings against better competition. (The accuracy of the EYBL data might also warrant more skepticism than college or international stats.)
I don't think Wiseman did enough to quell the concerns about his winning impact, feel for the game or motor in his three college games, making him susceptible to being overtaken by other players with a stronger track record. That does not appear likely to materialize in reality, though. League insiders are operating under the assumption that Wiseman is the favorite to go No. 2 if the Golden State Warriors keep the pick. And if a team trades up to No. 2 to select a player other than Wiseman, Charlotte is likely to snatch him up at No. 3.
But, to me, Okongwu is a far more impactful, engaged and versatile defender, and he possesses just as much offensive upside thanks to his soft touch, excellent hands, superior passing, strong feel and likelihood to extend his range. Wiseman has far more impressive physical tools, but Okongwu is a better basketball player in a more proven sample of 28 college games.
Schmitz: Onyeka Okongwu
I'm with Jonathan. Okongwu is one of the best 19-year-old pick-and-roll defenders I've ever evaluated. While he can switch onto guards in a pinch, I'm more impressed by the nuance he already displays defending in drop situations, playing the bluff-and-recover game that often takes elite bigs years to master.
He might not have Wiseman's massive standing reach or the elite frame of a typical top-five center, but his decision-making and nearly picture-perfect verticality make up for that. He gravitates to the ball as effortlessly as any 6-foot-9 center I've scouted in recent years. Teams love that he won't get played off the floor against jumbo lineups or small-ball teams. I do think he'll need time to fine-tune his perimeter game offensively, but the defensive versatility gives him an incredibly high floor and a clear role early.
You could argue Wiseman has the higher upside of the two given his otherworldly tools, agility and flashes of skill as a shooter and ball handler. It's hard for me to ignore how Wiseman defended around the rim in spurts during the Nike Hoop Summit, registering six blocks in 22 minutes. Or how he played with great energy and skill on both ends at the Jordan Brand Classic.
Finding that balance between being a run-and-jump big and skill-oriented center has always been a sticking point for Wiseman, and where he lands should ultimately play a large role in his development.
What is the rest of your top-five big man rankings?
Schmitz: (2) James Wiseman, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Jalen Smith, (5) Precious Achiuwa
Though scouts' concerns about Toppin's defense are absolutely valid -- especially sliding with modern forwards or bodying up centers -- I don't see quite as big of a gap between Toppin and Okongwu/Wiseman as most. Toppin has a strong case as an inside-out offensive juggernaut who will contend for Rookie of the Year while mostly playing the 4, which is an entirely different role than the other two bigs.
I see Toppin as a ready-made starter who fits the modern game perfectly offensively and will thrive in the regular season. He's an elite north-south runner and arguably the best lob-catcher in the draft when at the 5, yet he can pop into catch-and-shoot 3s with ease at the 4. Toppin also has a tremendous feel for playing out of handoffs. While he benefited from playing the 5 with skill around him at Dayton, Toppin is also a huge reason that offense was so fluid with his willingness to keep the ball moving side to side, sprint into screens and make himself available without needing plays called for him.
I'm really high on Jalen Smith out of Maryland. At 6-10 and with a 7-2 wingspan, he's wiry strong with a picture-perfect stroke (37% on 3s as a sophomore) and shot-blocking chops (2.4 per game). Even if he's not a great ball handler, passer or the most consistent perimeter defender right now, he's versatile enough to play either big spot. He's someone I'd start thinking about at the back end of the lottery because of how coveted 3s and blocks are in today's game.
If Achiuwa can buy into being a consistent roller and mismatch driver like Montrezl Harrell on offense with Bam Adebayo's defensive potential, he could absolutely outplay his draft slot.
Pelton: (2) Onyeka Okongwu, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Xavier Tillman, (5) Jalen Smith
However you rank them, I don't think there's much question that Wiseman and Okongwu are the top two bigs in this year's draft for all the reasons Jonathan and Mike laid out.
I'm a bit lower on Toppin. Between his above-the-rim finishing and the soft touch he showed from 3-point range last season, I suspect Toppin will become a quality offensive player in the NBA. I'm more skeptical of his ability to find a position defensively. I think he'll be challenged to defend teams that play smaller 4s, and Toppin isn't capable enough as a rim protector to play extended minutes at the 5. As a result, I think Toppin could end up more of a part-time specialist who's productive in his minutes.
Tillman vs. Smith is an interesting question to me. Smith is a year younger, was picked All-Big Ten first team ahead of Tillman (a second-team choice), is taller and a better shooter. All of that helps explain why he's considered likely to go in the middle of the first round while Tillman will probably last until the second round. Still, there's a compelling case for Tillman over Smith.
It was Tillman -- not Smith, Toppin or Okongwu -- who led all Division I regulars in Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric, which tends to favor big men. Tillman also handed out assists three times more frequently on a per-play basis, indicative of his superior feel for the game. Smith's assist rate would put him among the bottom 20 NBA-bound players in my database. Given that concern, I'd favor Tillman.
Givony: (2) James Wiseman, (3) Obi Toppin, (4) Precious Achiuwa, (5) Aleksej Pokusevski
I share Pelton's concerns with Toppin's defense. Like a lot of top prospects in this year's draft, his exact measurements are a point of interest, as he declined to participate in any part of the combine. I've seen reports of his wingspan ranging from 6-10 (measured at last summer's Nike Skills Academy) to a self-reported 7-2, which reportedly was measured by a team drafting in the top five. That makes a big difference for the reasons Pelton stated.
Toppin plays an upright style of defense with a high center of gravity that makes it difficult for him to defend on the perimeter, which he'll likely have to do given his size. That was masked at Dayton by playing almost exclusively at center with a great deal of shooting and playmaking around him. I believe in Toppin's scoring ability translating seamlessly to the NBA level, but he'll have to be paired with the right type of big man to not end up as a liability defensively. Still, it would be surprising to see him fall out of the top five.
Achiuwa will almost certainly be the next big off the board. He's arguably the most athletic ot this group beside Toppin, and he became a complete game-changer defensively as the season moved along. His 9-1 standing reach and chiseled 234-pound frame will allow him to play the center position with ease (like his three closest physical comps: Amar'e Stoudemire, Tristan Thompson and Bam Adebayo), but he has outstanding feet switching onto smaller players on the perimeter. It wouldn't be surprising to see him check an opposing team's best playmaker, giving him coveted versatility in today's NBA. His skill level and feel for the game are a major work in progress, but I'll bet on everything I've heard about his approach to the game helping him long term.
Pokusevski can hardly be described as a traditional big man, weighing just around 200 pounds, but he didn't neatly fit into any of our other positional categories. Whichever team drafts him will hope he can eventually fill out enough to be a full-time, 7-foot power forward.
He's the youngest player in the draft at 18, and possibly the least experienced against quality competition, yet he's arguably the most uniquely versatile. At his best with the ball in his hands, Pokusevski likes to push off the defensive glass, play pick-and-roll with terrific vision, and make shots running off screens and pulling off the dribble. His frame is at least a few years away from being NBA-ready, and he lacks a degree of toughness and engagement on both ends of the floor.
A true wild card in terms of where he might be drafted, Pokusevski raised eyebrows when he decided last month to leave the U.S. for Greece, declining to participate in all parts of the pre-draft process. That indicated to many teams that he has a solid handle on his draft range. He's getting some late lottery buzz lately, with the Oklahoma City Thunder emerging as a possible suitor. They pick at No. 25 but have every asset needed to move up if necessary.
What projected second-round big man do you find the most intriguing?
Schmitz: Reggie Perry
Watching Reggie Perry shine during 3-on-3 action at Impact Basketball in Las Vegas last month woke me up to how badly I was sleeping on him.
I admittedly overscouted Perry throughout his career. He's far from a perfect prospect, as his defensive effort and willingness to get others involved were real question marks at times. But his game appeared far more modern than I ever remembered as he stepped into 3s smoothly and looked comfortable playing out of handoffs. At 6-10, Perry is one of the strongest players in the draft and has playmaking potential. The MVP of the Under-19 World Championships and the SEC co-player of the year at just 20 years old while at Mississippi State, Perry has the résumé, body and evolving skill to ultimately become a second-round steal.
Givony: Udoka Azubuike
Azubuike was the big winner of the measurements portion of the combine. Azubuike has shed 14 pounds from his now 260-pound frame since 2018. He also measured an outrageous 7-7.25 wingspan and broke the record for centers by testing a 37-inch standing vertical (along with a 41-inch max vertical). Azubuike already had quite a bit to point to résumé-wise as the NCAA's all-time leader in field goal percentage and the clear-cut best player on the No. 1 team in college basketball. The marked improvement he showed defensively was a huge reason for Kansas' dominance this season.
Pelton: Paul Reed
I'm not the first to make this comparison, but it's hard to understand why Achiuwa is a possible lottery pick and Reed a possible second-rounder given how much more productive Reed was last season. Despite having three years of college experience, Reed is just three months older than Achiuwa, a one-and-done prospect.
Yes, Achiuwa is the more explosive athlete, and he's probably got an edge in switchability -- a plus for both players, who move well for their size. Aside from that, Reed was the more efficient shooter (making a higher percentage of his 2-point attempts) while accumulating more blocks and steals. Along with Duke's Javin DeLaurier, a far less polished offensive player who's not in the ESPN top 100, Reed is one of just two players in this year's draft projected to average at least 2 steals per 100 plays and block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts in the NBA.
Even if he never proves more than a defensive specialist in the NBA, Reed is worth the gamble early in the second round.
