Fixing Every NBA Team\'s Worst Free-Agent Signing of the Past Decade东南赛区由那么爱呢_ 发表在翻译团招工部 https://bbs.hupu.com/fyt-store
My colleague, Greg Swartz, recently highlighted every NBA team's worst free-agent signing of the past decade.It's now my turn to fix these financial misfires.
Swartz used a formula to determine free agents' cost per win share, which identified each club's top free-agency regret. Contracts had to be signed between 2010 and 2019 to be eligible for the exercise.
Those are the particulars. Now comes the hard part.
Whether changing the contract terms, adjusting the target or axing the agreements altogether, let's find a fix for every free-agency face-plant.
Atlanta Hawks: Joe Johnson
The Contract: Six years, $123.7 million
The Fix: Shorten the length
Atlanta recognizing and rewarding Johnson's talent was fine. He had booked four straight All-Star appearances prior to signing this pact in 2010, and he was one of only four players to average 20 points, four assists and four rebounds in each of the previous five seasons.
This was max-contract behavior, so the annual salary was justifiable. Overshooting the length is where the Hawks went wrong.
Johnson was 29 years old when he put pen to paper. The Hawks were paying him for things he'd already done, not necessarily things he'd keep doing in the future. Expecting him to keep earning his checks through his 35th birthday was never feasible.
If stopping short of the full six seasons would've pushed Johnson out the door, Atlanta could've let him walk and known its budget wouldn't be blown out of proportion by an aging offensive specialist.
Charlotte Hornets: Tyrus Thomas
The Contract: Five years, $40 million
The Fix: Don't take a five-year gamble on a project
No hindsight analysis needed here, folks. This was a head-scratcher at the time, and it only worsened as Thomas quickly proved he had no business collecting this kind of coin.
Charlotte should've known something was up considering how quickly Chicago reversed course with Thomas. In 2006, the Bulls traded the No. 2 pick (some guy named LaMarcus Aldridge) in a deal for Thomas. Less than four years later, they had no interest in paying him in restricted free agency and let him go at the 2010 trade deadline for Acie Law, Ronald Murray and a future first-rounder that didn't convey until 2014.
Thomas had NBA tools, but he lacked discernible NBA skills. Prior to signing this deal, he had a career player efficiency rating just a tick above average (15.6) and a negative career box plus/minus (minus-0.1). In what universe do those numbers warrant a five-year contract?
Not this one. Thomas played only 121 games across three seasons after signing this deal, and the Hornets grew so desperate to deal him that they tried using the 2012 No. 2 overall pick as incentive for someone to take him off their hands, as Michael Lee reported for the Washington Post.
The Hornets wound up waiving Thomas via the amnesty clause in 2013, erasing a deal that was richer and far longer than the stat sheet said he deserved.
Miami Heat: Dion Waiters
The Contract: Four years, $52 million
The Fix: Don't overpay for a half-season breakout
The Heat had to know there was a good chance this contract was never going to age well.
Waiters was four seasons into his career when he landed in Miami ahead of the 2016-17 season, and he had already been discarded by two different teams. The Cavaliers ditched him in a deal that brought back JR Smith and Iman Shumpert, and the Thunder rescinded a qualifying offer that would've made him a restricted free agent.
Waiters' sporadic, inefficient scoring had torpedoed his value—he was the fourth overall pick in 2012—and the Heat needed only their $2.9 million room exception to get him. There was no reason to think the relationship would last when Miami face-planted into an 11-30 start, but the Heat mirrored that with a 30-11 finish during which Waiters played some of his best basketball (and provided the best meme) of his career.
It was a fun stretch, but it was two months of a career defined by inconsistency. It had all the makings of a contract-year mirage, and Miami still paid $52 million to take the plunge.
Incredibly (written in sarcasm font), Waiters hadn't actually transformed in those two months, so the Heat instead grossly overspent on an inefficient scoring specialist. His free agency had short-term, prove-it contract written all over it.
Orlando Magic: Bismack Biyombo
The Contract: Four years, $72 million
The Fix: Embrace modern basketball
If someone went back and retroactively graded the 2016 offseason, there would be temptation to give Orlando an F.
The Magic traded Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis for Serge Ibaka in June, then traded Ibaka for Terrence Ross and a late first-round pick less than eight months later. They gave Jeff Green a one-year, $15 million deal and watched him fail to shoot 40 percent from the field or 30 percent from three. And they calculated the stone-handed, offensively challenged Biyombo's worth at $18 million per year, even while Nikola Vucevic's presence effectively shoehorned Biyombo into a reserve role.
Sure, you could give than an F. In my book, though, it's more of a LOL WUT?!?!
The Magic had Ibaka, Vucevic and Aaron Gordon on the roster before they handed Biyombo a blank check. Where was he supposed to fit? How was this offense ever going to function? What was the best-case scenario for this situation?
I still can't answer any of those questions, so rather than trying to work out a contract more reflective of Biyombo's skills, let's just pretend this never happened, OK?
Washington Wizards: John Wall
The Contract: Four years, $170 million
The Fix: Shorten it
Maybe the correct answer here is never let the supermax contract enter the collective bargaining agreement. Once that happened, Wall wasn't staying in Washington without it.
The beating he has taken from the injury bug has turned the deal from dicey to disastrous. But as soon as Wall put pen to paper on the extension in July 2017, he was fighting an uphill battle to justify his paycheck.
This season, the first on the new deal, was his age-29 campaign. That's a big number for a point guard with a shaky jumper (career 32.4 percent from three) and a heavy dependence on athleticism. He has always done his best work in the open court—his decision-making seems to improve the faster he plays—so if he lost some of his absurd sprint speed, there were legitimate concerns over whether he could be a star again.
That's a question that can't be asked of a player making an average of $42.5 million each season. That kind of coin should be reserved only for top-tier superstars. Wall was never quite on that level, and he could be worlds removed from it the next time he takes the floor (which he'll do as a 30-year-old coming off a torn Achilles).
It would help the Wizards' books if this deal (arguably the NBA's worst) didn't stretch another three years into the future, but Wall wouldn't have taken anything less.
My colleague, Greg Swartz, recently highlighted every NBA team's worst free-agent signing of the past decade.It's now my turn to fix these financial misfires.
Swartz used a formula to determine free agents' cost per win share, which identified each club's top free-agency regret. Contracts had to be signed between 2010 and 2019 to be eligible for the exercise.
Those are the particulars. Now comes the hard part.
Whether changing the contract terms, adjusting the target or axing the agreements altogether, let's find a fix for every free-agency face-plant.
Atlanta Hawks: Joe Johnson
The Contract: Six years, $123.7 million
The Fix: Shorten the length
Atlanta recognizing and rewarding Johnson's talent was fine. He had booked four straight All-Star appearances prior to signing this pact in 2010, and he was one of only four players to average 20 points, four assists and four rebounds in each of the previous five seasons.
This was max-contract behavior, so the annual salary was justifiable. Overshooting the length is where the Hawks went wrong.
Johnson was 29 years old when he put pen to paper. The Hawks were paying him for things he'd already done, not necessarily things he'd keep doing in the future. Expecting him to keep earning his checks through his 35th birthday was never feasible.
If stopping short of the full six seasons would've pushed Johnson out the door, Atlanta could've let him walk and known its budget wouldn't be blown out of proportion by an aging offensive specialist.
Charlotte Hornets: Tyrus Thomas
The Contract: Five years, $40 million
The Fix: Don't take a five-year gamble on a project
No hindsight analysis needed here, folks. This was a head-scratcher at the time, and it only worsened as Thomas quickly proved he had no business collecting this kind of coin.
Charlotte should've known something was up considering how quickly Chicago reversed course with Thomas. In 2006, the Bulls traded the No. 2 pick (some guy named LaMarcus Aldridge) in a deal for Thomas. Less than four years later, they had no interest in paying him in restricted free agency and let him go at the 2010 trade deadline for Acie Law, Ronald Murray and a future first-rounder that didn't convey until 2014.
Thomas had NBA tools, but he lacked discernible NBA skills. Prior to signing this deal, he had a career player efficiency rating just a tick above average (15.6) and a negative career box plus/minus (minus-0.1). In what universe do those numbers warrant a five-year contract?
Not this one. Thomas played only 121 games across three seasons after signing this deal, and the Hornets grew so desperate to deal him that they tried using the 2012 No. 2 overall pick as incentive for someone to take him off their hands, as Michael Lee reported for the Washington Post.
The Hornets wound up waiving Thomas via the amnesty clause in 2013, erasing a deal that was richer and far longer than the stat sheet said he deserved.
Miami Heat: Dion Waiters
The Contract: Four years, $52 million
The Fix: Don't overpay for a half-season breakout
The Heat had to know there was a good chance this contract was never going to age well.
Waiters was four seasons into his career when he landed in Miami ahead of the 2016-17 season, and he had already been discarded by two different teams. The Cavaliers ditched him in a deal that brought back JR Smith and Iman Shumpert, and the Thunder rescinded a qualifying offer that would've made him a restricted free agent.
Waiters' sporadic, inefficient scoring had torpedoed his value—he was the fourth overall pick in 2012—and the Heat needed only their $2.9 million room exception to get him. There was no reason to think the relationship would last when Miami face-planted into an 11-30 start, but the Heat mirrored that with a 30-11 finish during which Waiters played some of his best basketball (and provided the best meme) of his career.
It was a fun stretch, but it was two months of a career defined by inconsistency. It had all the makings of a contract-year mirage, and Miami still paid $52 million to take the plunge.
Incredibly (written in sarcasm font), Waiters hadn't actually transformed in those two months, so the Heat instead grossly overspent on an inefficient scoring specialist. His free agency had short-term, prove-it contract written all over it.
Orlando Magic: Bismack Biyombo
The Contract: Four years, $72 million
The Fix: Embrace modern basketball
If someone went back and retroactively graded the 2016 offseason, there would be temptation to give Orlando an F.
The Magic traded Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis for Serge Ibaka in June, then traded Ibaka for Terrence Ross and a late first-round pick less than eight months later. They gave Jeff Green a one-year, $15 million deal and watched him fail to shoot 40 percent from the field or 30 percent from three. And they calculated the stone-handed, offensively challenged Biyombo's worth at $18 million per year, even while Nikola Vucevic's presence effectively shoehorned Biyombo into a reserve role.
Sure, you could give than an F. In my book, though, it's more of a LOL WUT?!?!
The Magic had Ibaka, Vucevic and Aaron Gordon on the roster before they handed Biyombo a blank check. Where was he supposed to fit? How was this offense ever going to function? What was the best-case scenario for this situation?
I still can't answer any of those questions, so rather than trying to work out a contract more reflective of Biyombo's skills, let's just pretend this never happened, OK?
Washington Wizards: John Wall
The Contract: Four years, $170 million
The Fix: Shorten it
Maybe the correct answer here is never let the supermax contract enter the collective bargaining agreement. Once that happened, Wall wasn't staying in Washington without it.
The beating he has taken from the injury bug has turned the deal from dicey to disastrous. But as soon as Wall put pen to paper on the extension in July 2017, he was fighting an uphill battle to justify his paycheck.
This season, the first on the new deal, was his age-29 campaign. That's a big number for a point guard with a shaky jumper (career 32.4 percent from three) and a heavy dependence on athleticism. He has always done his best work in the open court—his decision-making seems to improve the faster he plays—so if he lost some of his absurd sprint speed, there were legitimate concerns over whether he could be a star again.
That's a question that can't be asked of a player making an average of $42.5 million each season. That kind of coin should be reserved only for top-tier superstars. Wall was never quite on that level, and he could be worlds removed from it the next time he takes the floor (which he'll do as a 30-year-old coming off a torn Achilles).
It would help the Wizards' books if this deal (arguably the NBA's worst) didn't stretch another three years into the future, but Wall wouldn't have taken anything less.
推荐
评论 (4)
收藏
分享
举报
只看楼主
