Projecting the Clippers' future with former NBA executive John Holiinger Part 1由卡哇伊爱小西瓜 发表在ClipsNation https://bbs.hupu.com/672
At some point within the next two weeks, and as soon as the next few days, the NBA is likely to announce the resuming of the 2019-20 season — a boon for contending teams like the Clippers.
Once the season restarts, the demand is back on the Clippers to make the franchise’s first conference finals and compete for a championship in Year 1 of the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George partnership. Beyond that, the Clippers have important decisions to make in 2020 free agency, including what they want the core of their roster to look like moving forward and how deep they’re willing to go into the luxury tax.
So, what should the Clippers do with free agents Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris Sr.? Are there any other avenues for improvement for next season’s roster? How much pressure is there to win a championship before Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can hit free agency in 2021?
To answer these complex questions, and to project into the franchise’s future, The Athletic Los Angeles linked with John Hollinger, the former Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations (2012-19) who is now a national NBA writer at The Athletic.
Here’s part 1 of our two-part discussion.
Jovan Buha: Before we dig into the specifics of the Clippers’ offseason, I think the most interesting place to start with L.A. is the macro conversation about how much is at stake this season — and how it could affect the team’s approach heading into next season.
It appears that basketball will be returning soon, which is good news for the Clippers, as a 2019-20 campaign with no postseason would be a calamity. The Clippers have gone all-in on this season and next season (at a minimum), trading away young talent and an historic number of picks to acquire Leonard and George and to preserve and even bolster the depth around them in an attempt to win the franchise’s first championship.
It was a smart bet — one that most, if not every NBA front office would make if they were in the Clippers’ position. But Leonard and George can test free agency in 2021, which is somewhat worrisome. I don’t think either player leaves Los Angeles, but we’ve seen crazier things happen in NBA free agency over the past decade.
Assuming that this season resumes, what, in your estimation, is an adequate resolution for both the organization and its superstars? Is it a championship or bust? Are the Finals acceptable? What about the first conference finals appearance? And, in the worst-case scenario that the season is canceled, how much additional pressure does that place on the outcome of the 2020-21 season?
John Hollinger: Certainly I think it would be a crushing disappointment for this organization to miss out on the conference finals. They are clearly one of the top two teams in the West, along with their rivals in Staples Center, and from the moment they got Kawhi Leonard this team moved to “win-now” now.
More generally, I think it’s a title-or-bust mentality in this window where they have George and Leonard in their primes, simply because of everything they gave up. The Clippers mortgaged a huge chunk of their future by giving up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and five first-round picks in the deal for George, and then yet another first-round to acquire a secondary piece (Marcus Morris) that fortified that top five.
They also almost certainly will be in the luxury tax next season, perhaps by a considerable margin. Again, those are the types of decisions a team in “win-now” mode should be making, but the “win” part is what makes it acceptable.
Even if George and Leonard stay, the clock is ticking. Leonard is about to turn 29 while George just turned 30, and both have had physical problems in their recent past. Morris, Lou Williams and Pat Beverley all are on the wrong side of 30. This window won’t be open forever.
As far as additional pressure in the 2020-21 season if the season is canceled, I’m not sure the situation changes much. Obviously a canceled season removes an opportunity to win it all, but the Clippers would walk away from this season feeling pretty good about their chances to have won the West if the season had played out. It would be a missed opportunity, but comparatively, a playoff defeat this summer would weigh a lot more heavily on 2020-21.
Buha: That’s an interesting perspective I hadn’t yet considered: Not having a resolution to the 2019-20 season would probably be better for the Clippers than losing at some point in the 2020 playoffs. I was thinking more of the tormenting “What if?” aspect of a canceled season, but losing earlier than expected is theoretically a worse alternative because it’s a concrete result.
Once the season concludes, the Clippers will have a series of critical offseason decisions.
They narrowly avoided the tax at the 2020 trade deadline, but as you mentioned, it’s going to be difficult to avoid the luxury tax next season (and beyond), especially now that it looks like the 2020-21 salary cap will likely be decreased by a considerable amount. Steve Ballmer is the wealthiest owner in North American sports, but he’s also a shrewd decision-maker who will want to ensure that his money is being spent wisely.
This offseason, the Clippers’ front office has to juggle the negotiations with free agents Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris Sr., two players who were initially projected to earn somewhere in the $12- to $18-million range before the season was postponed.
With the current salary information we have available, what’s a price range you’d feel comfortable re-signing Harrell? What about Morris Sr.? Do the Clippers have to retain at least one of the two for this to be considered a successful offseason? Or are there any sneaky alternatives in the 2020 free-agent class that you feel could provide similar value or production at a discount?
The Clippers have some decisions to make with Marcus Morris Sr. and Montrezl Harrell. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
Hollinger: I think they have to retain Morris in particular. They surrendered a first-round pick to acquire him and part of the logic was that they could go up to $18 million a year on a contract to retain him. (As a Non-Bird free agent, the Clippers can pay Morris 120 percent of his 2019-20 salary of $15 million. Anything beyond that would require cap space, which they don’t have.)
Morris also has obvious utility in the event of a match-up against the Lakers, because he’s another switchable 6-8 guy who can credibly defend LeBron James. (To the extent that anybody can). He’s the type of guy whose utility likely increases in a playoff setting, and the Clippers’ ultimate goal has to be to lift their playoff ceiling as high as possible. In a weak market for wing players, I don’t see many viable alternatives available with the Clippers’ tax-payer midlevel exception (estimated at about $6 million).
Harrell is a more interesting situation both ways. There is more talent at center than available spots in this summer’s free-agent market, but as the saying goes, “it only takes one.” I could see a team like Charlotte, who has cap room and needs a center, making an offer on Harrell that the Clippers would have to really think hard about matching. (The Clippers have no contractual matching rights, but one presumes that if they made a similar offer that Harrell would prefer to stay).
Could the Clippers use their taxpayer mid-level exception and find a good enough option to replace Harrell’s minutes? Are they comfortable with increasing Ivica Zubac’s role? Is Ballmer okay shelling out a $55 million check to the league for the luxury tax? That’s possible if they re-sign Harrell and Morris and use their mid-level exception. That’s a big number, even for Ballmer.
The other wild card in this is JaMychal Green — his $5 million player option for next season could shift the tax calculation on a Harrell contract. For instance, if Green left and the Clippers signed a minimum contract in his place, but paid Harrell and Morris a combined $33 million in free agency, the Green part would save the team $15 million in luxury tax and salary.
As far as alternatives, they won’t find one as offensively potent as Harrell, but a few players at the taxpayer MLE price point could offer different skillsets. Tristan Thompson is an ace rebounder and a solid defender. Nerlens Noel is a rim-running energizer who can block shots. Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee both had strong years with the Lakers, and come with the added bonus of subtracting a player from their Staples Center rivals.
At some point within the next two weeks, and as soon as the next few days, the NBA is likely to announce the resuming of the 2019-20 season — a boon for contending teams like the Clippers.
Once the season restarts, the demand is back on the Clippers to make the franchise’s first conference finals and compete for a championship in Year 1 of the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George partnership. Beyond that, the Clippers have important decisions to make in 2020 free agency, including what they want the core of their roster to look like moving forward and how deep they’re willing to go into the luxury tax.
So, what should the Clippers do with free agents Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris Sr.? Are there any other avenues for improvement for next season’s roster? How much pressure is there to win a championship before Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can hit free agency in 2021?
To answer these complex questions, and to project into the franchise’s future, The Athletic Los Angeles linked with John Hollinger, the former Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations (2012-19) who is now a national NBA writer at The Athletic.
Here’s part 1 of our two-part discussion.
Jovan Buha: Before we dig into the specifics of the Clippers’ offseason, I think the most interesting place to start with L.A. is the macro conversation about how much is at stake this season — and how it could affect the team’s approach heading into next season.
It appears that basketball will be returning soon, which is good news for the Clippers, as a 2019-20 campaign with no postseason would be a calamity. The Clippers have gone all-in on this season and next season (at a minimum), trading away young talent and an historic number of picks to acquire Leonard and George and to preserve and even bolster the depth around them in an attempt to win the franchise’s first championship.
It was a smart bet — one that most, if not every NBA front office would make if they were in the Clippers’ position. But Leonard and George can test free agency in 2021, which is somewhat worrisome. I don’t think either player leaves Los Angeles, but we’ve seen crazier things happen in NBA free agency over the past decade.
Assuming that this season resumes, what, in your estimation, is an adequate resolution for both the organization and its superstars? Is it a championship or bust? Are the Finals acceptable? What about the first conference finals appearance? And, in the worst-case scenario that the season is canceled, how much additional pressure does that place on the outcome of the 2020-21 season?
John Hollinger: Certainly I think it would be a crushing disappointment for this organization to miss out on the conference finals. They are clearly one of the top two teams in the West, along with their rivals in Staples Center, and from the moment they got Kawhi Leonard this team moved to “win-now” now.
More generally, I think it’s a title-or-bust mentality in this window where they have George and Leonard in their primes, simply because of everything they gave up. The Clippers mortgaged a huge chunk of their future by giving up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and five first-round picks in the deal for George, and then yet another first-round to acquire a secondary piece (Marcus Morris) that fortified that top five.
They also almost certainly will be in the luxury tax next season, perhaps by a considerable margin. Again, those are the types of decisions a team in “win-now” mode should be making, but the “win” part is what makes it acceptable.
Even if George and Leonard stay, the clock is ticking. Leonard is about to turn 29 while George just turned 30, and both have had physical problems in their recent past. Morris, Lou Williams and Pat Beverley all are on the wrong side of 30. This window won’t be open forever.
As far as additional pressure in the 2020-21 season if the season is canceled, I’m not sure the situation changes much. Obviously a canceled season removes an opportunity to win it all, but the Clippers would walk away from this season feeling pretty good about their chances to have won the West if the season had played out. It would be a missed opportunity, but comparatively, a playoff defeat this summer would weigh a lot more heavily on 2020-21.
Buha: That’s an interesting perspective I hadn’t yet considered: Not having a resolution to the 2019-20 season would probably be better for the Clippers than losing at some point in the 2020 playoffs. I was thinking more of the tormenting “What if?” aspect of a canceled season, but losing earlier than expected is theoretically a worse alternative because it’s a concrete result.
Once the season concludes, the Clippers will have a series of critical offseason decisions.
They narrowly avoided the tax at the 2020 trade deadline, but as you mentioned, it’s going to be difficult to avoid the luxury tax next season (and beyond), especially now that it looks like the 2020-21 salary cap will likely be decreased by a considerable amount. Steve Ballmer is the wealthiest owner in North American sports, but he’s also a shrewd decision-maker who will want to ensure that his money is being spent wisely.
This offseason, the Clippers’ front office has to juggle the negotiations with free agents Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris Sr., two players who were initially projected to earn somewhere in the $12- to $18-million range before the season was postponed.
With the current salary information we have available, what’s a price range you’d feel comfortable re-signing Harrell? What about Morris Sr.? Do the Clippers have to retain at least one of the two for this to be considered a successful offseason? Or are there any sneaky alternatives in the 2020 free-agent class that you feel could provide similar value or production at a discount?
The Clippers have some decisions to make with Marcus Morris Sr. and Montrezl Harrell. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
Hollinger: I think they have to retain Morris in particular. They surrendered a first-round pick to acquire him and part of the logic was that they could go up to $18 million a year on a contract to retain him. (As a Non-Bird free agent, the Clippers can pay Morris 120 percent of his 2019-20 salary of $15 million. Anything beyond that would require cap space, which they don’t have.)
Morris also has obvious utility in the event of a match-up against the Lakers, because he’s another switchable 6-8 guy who can credibly defend LeBron James. (To the extent that anybody can). He’s the type of guy whose utility likely increases in a playoff setting, and the Clippers’ ultimate goal has to be to lift their playoff ceiling as high as possible. In a weak market for wing players, I don’t see many viable alternatives available with the Clippers’ tax-payer midlevel exception (estimated at about $6 million).
Harrell is a more interesting situation both ways. There is more talent at center than available spots in this summer’s free-agent market, but as the saying goes, “it only takes one.” I could see a team like Charlotte, who has cap room and needs a center, making an offer on Harrell that the Clippers would have to really think hard about matching. (The Clippers have no contractual matching rights, but one presumes that if they made a similar offer that Harrell would prefer to stay).
Could the Clippers use their taxpayer mid-level exception and find a good enough option to replace Harrell’s minutes? Are they comfortable with increasing Ivica Zubac’s role? Is Ballmer okay shelling out a $55 million check to the league for the luxury tax? That’s possible if they re-sign Harrell and Morris and use their mid-level exception. That’s a big number, even for Ballmer.
The other wild card in this is JaMychal Green — his $5 million player option for next season could shift the tax calculation on a Harrell contract. For instance, if Green left and the Clippers signed a minimum contract in his place, but paid Harrell and Morris a combined $33 million in free agency, the Green part would save the team $15 million in luxury tax and salary.
As far as alternatives, they won’t find one as offensively potent as Harrell, but a few players at the taxpayer MLE price point could offer different skillsets. Tristan Thompson is an ace rebounder and a solid defender. Nerlens Noel is a rim-running energizer who can block shots. Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee both had strong years with the Lakers, and come with the added bonus of subtracting a player from their Staples Center rivals.
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