Fernando Alonso has won two Formula 1 titles, so perhaps it is a little odd to suggest that another driver still craving world championship success should try to avoid ending up like him. The trouble with Alonso is that in the wider story of his career, the champion narrative has been replaced by one that reads 'what could have been'.
This is the fate Daniel Ricciardo risks if he rolls the dice and leaves Red Bull after this season. He is the best driver on the grid yet to win a title, so it is not at all surprising for the likes of McLaren and Renault to sniff around him given he is available. What would be surprising, if not completely nonsensical, is if Ricciardo chooses to join them.
Ricciardo has admitted a partial interest in striking out on his own to repeat Lewis Hamilton's success story - the Briton left McLaren to become Mercedes' leading man. Three world titles have followed for Hamilton, so the temptation is clear.
"I'm not going to say 'no, it doesn't interest me at all'," Ricciardo said of McLaren and Renault. "Probably more because of what Lewis was able to do with Mercedes. Those two teams, they're not quite in that position yet but could they be? Maybe."
That's a proper 'I have no idea if they are capable of doing it' maybe, though. And even that's probably a generous assessment of those two teams' chances of fighting for wins, let alone titles, in the next couple of seasons.
There are more signs pointing to an Alonso-esque wrong move than those suggesting a repeat of how Hamilton "pulled the trigger pretty well", as Ricciardo put it, when he made the surprise move from his championship-challenging long-time backer McLaren to the immature Mercedes works team for 2013.
Unless Ricciardo was still joking when he said "he says that he knew it was going to happen, I don't know", he's at risk of making a massive error. It would be folly to think Hamilton's move only looks smart thanks to hindsight. Mercedes in 2012 was on another level to McLaren or Renault in '18. In fact, it was already where Renault's only hoping to be by 2020 - a race winner on merit.
So, Hamilton had a much better starting point than Ricciardo would if he moved down the grid now.
Then there is the infrastructure and the context: Mercedes was clearly building and investing in something bigger - admittedly not unlike what Renault has been doing recently - but had its eye on a massive engine regulation overhaul that was coming for 2014. Renault might have a watered-down version of that in 2021, but no sooner. Meanwhile, McLaren looks completely lost; a team in decline and with no idea how to arrest it.
That is why pursuing Hamilton's success could leave Ricciardo replicating the anti-climax of Alonso's F1 career. While Hamilton nailed his one move perfectly, Alonso's career since the sour end to his first McLaren season in 2007 has been a cycle of committing to projects that promise a lot but haven't delivered what he wanted. At least Alonso hit the summit before things started to go downhill...
Given Alonso's patience with failed projects (five years with Ferrari, four now with McLaren), it would be bonkers for Ricciardo to go where even the Spaniard has had enough.
Ricciardo dodged questions about Honda, batting away comments about his visit to its Sakura facility
Of course, Mercedes or Ferrari would be Ricciardo's preferred route out of Red Bull should he choose to seek greener pastures, because of the much greater chance of short-term success and the title he craves at those squads. Unfortunately, the Mercedes situation appears the same as ever - Hamilton and one of either Valtteri Bottas or Esteban Ocon - while Ferrari is now tantalisingly close to picking Charles Leclerc to replace Kimi Raikkonen, who appears to have finally lost the faith of the Scuderia's hierarchy. Ricciardo was seriously considered, but deemed too expensive.
Therefore, McLaren and Renault are viewed as Ricciardo's only realistic options. But just how have they become even semi-serious choices, given Ricciardo has won two races with Red Bull this year, while Renault is a long way from earning a podium on merit, and McLaren is on a three-race pointless run?
In the aftermath of Red Bull's announcement that it would switch to Honda engines, Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul claimed the call could have unexpected consequences for the driver market. Abiteboul's remark has generally been interpreted as a suggestion that Ricciardo will jump ship if he doesn't share Red Bull's faith in Honda.
During the French Grand Prix weekend, Ricciardo did two things to suggest this is a plausible hypothesis. First, as covered, he confirmed the prospect of a joining project like McLaren or Renault does pique his interest on some level. Second, he dodged questions about Honda, batting away comments about his visit to the Japanese manufacturer's Sakura facility and saying he needed to consider it properly now that the call has been made.
Ricciardo's caginess when dealing with Honda questions compares starkly to the effusive praise dished out by team-mate Max Verstappen. But the two drivers are in very different positions. Given Verstappen is under lock and key at Red Bull for next year, it would make very little sense for him to be publicly outspoken.
Ricciardo, on the other hand, does not need to mince his words. So, is he worried about Honda? Is he seriously considering gambling on McLaren or Renault? Or is he just trying to nudge his value a little higher by making Red Bull think he needs a bit more convincing to stick around?
Red Bull team boss Christian Horner believes Ricciardo will re-sign. On the record, he said this: "I think that there is an intent from both sides to move forward. The first thing was to close the situation with the engine. That has now been done and Daniel understands the engineering rationale behind that.
"Let's not forget that he has been in a car that in the last couple of grands prix has been lapping the [McLaren and Renault] cars. So, it would be a fairly bold decision to step out of a car that he has won two grands prix in this year as a championship contender. I would be surprised if he was to leave, because it's a good fit between himself and Red Bull, but it is Formula 1."
Indeed, it is still the same F1 in which Hamilton shocked so many people six years ago with his decision to leave McLaren. And as Ricciardo said, "obviously he's done well for himself with that move", but that does not make Hamilton an automatic template for others to follow. Ricciardo, to his credit, knows that: "Whether it's just a fantasy for everyone else, I don't know. But at least there's a little bit of proof that something like that could potentially happen again."
Ricciardo would be clutching at straws if he genuinely believes McLaren offers that opportunity. So, surely, that rules out Woking. Renault is less far-fetched as an option. The Enstone outfit's progress has been obvious since its works return in 2016 and it is currently a more competitive package than McLaren - it's F1's most consistent best-of-the-rest.
The trouble there is Renault's stagnation on engine development, at least compared to the benchmark power unit manufacturers, is what has stopped Red Bull doing more than just winning the odd race since 2014. It's one of the chief reasons Red Bull does not have the confidence to continue with Renault in the short-term.
So, what evidence is there to suggest Renault or McLaren offers more chance at success than Red Bull? And if Ricciardo still has eyes on a medium-term project, which at 28 is not unviable, then why would he not want to be part of the Honda journey, even if the first year or two is a little rough? At the very least, he would know that his team (Red Bull) can build a chassis that can challenge for the title. The engine would be the only question mark, which is not the case at Renault or McLaren.
Of course, the other reason Red Bull split from Renault is because it viewed the works team's rise as a guaranteed conflict, regardless of the rules demanding engine equality. Deep down, Red Bull feels that if Renault ever gets to the level of fighting for titles with its own squad, it would not be a straight fight against it for its customer. That means there is clearly a part of Red Bull that thinks Renault can get there eventually, and being at the centre of a works project committed to the world title while escaping the Verstappen matrix within Red Bull has obvious temptations for Ricciardo.
If his alternative to Red Bull was as clear-cut as what Mercedes offered Hamilton in 2012, Ricciardo would be sitting pretty - but it isn't
It's fair to say Renault is not completely invalid but Ricciardo admitted earlier this year, after a major engine failure in China, the window of optimism about its capacity for progress was shrinking.
He's identified this call as the most important of his senior racing career, and second most important in life - only behind leaving Australia in the first place to race in Europe. Picking Renault because he's looking at its glass as half-full would be a big gamble to base a choice of such magnitude on.
It's still difficult to see why there's a call to make at all. If his alternative to Red Bull was as clear-cut as what Mercedes offered Hamilton six years ago, Ricciardo would be sitting pretty. But it isn't.
If Ricciardo is smart, he'll realise Red Bull and Honda offer a title vision rooted in a firmer reality and stop chasing Hamilton's dream scenario. If he's not, he'll end up trapped in Alonso's nightmare, with the same frustrations but none of the past glories for compensation.
Fernando Alonso has won two Formula 1 titles, so perhaps it is a little odd to suggest that another driver still craving world championship success should try to avoid ending up like him. The trouble with Alonso is that in the wider story of his career, the champion narrative has been replaced by one that reads 'what could have been'.
This is the fate Daniel Ricciardo risks if he rolls the dice and leaves Red Bull after this season. He is the best driver on the grid yet to win a title, so it is not at all surprising for the likes of McLaren and Renault to sniff around him given he is available. What would be surprising, if not completely nonsensical, is if Ricciardo chooses to join them.
Ricciardo has admitted a partial interest in striking out on his own to repeat Lewis Hamilton's success story - the Briton left McLaren to become Mercedes' leading man. Three world titles have followed for Hamilton, so the temptation is clear.
"I'm not going to say 'no, it doesn't interest me at all'," Ricciardo said of McLaren and Renault. "Probably more because of what Lewis was able to do with Mercedes. Those two teams, they're not quite in that position yet but could they be? Maybe."
That's a proper 'I have no idea if they are capable of doing it' maybe, though. And even that's probably a generous assessment of those two teams' chances of fighting for wins, let alone titles, in the next couple of seasons.
There are more signs pointing to an Alonso-esque wrong move than those suggesting a repeat of how Hamilton "pulled the trigger pretty well", as Ricciardo put it, when he made the surprise move from his championship-challenging long-time backer McLaren to the immature Mercedes works team for 2013.
Unless Ricciardo was still joking when he said "he says that he knew it was going to happen, I don't know", he's at risk of making a massive error. It would be folly to think Hamilton's move only looks smart thanks to hindsight. Mercedes in 2012 was on another level to McLaren or Renault in '18. In fact, it was already where Renault's only hoping to be by 2020 - a race winner on merit.
So, Hamilton had a much better starting point than Ricciardo would if he moved down the grid now.
Then there is the infrastructure and the context: Mercedes was clearly building and investing in something bigger - admittedly not unlike what Renault has been doing recently - but had its eye on a massive engine regulation overhaul that was coming for 2014. Renault might have a watered-down version of that in 2021, but no sooner. Meanwhile, McLaren looks completely lost; a team in decline and with no idea how to arrest it.
That is why pursuing Hamilton's success could leave Ricciardo replicating the anti-climax of Alonso's F1 career. While Hamilton nailed his one move perfectly, Alonso's career since the sour end to his first McLaren season in 2007 has been a cycle of committing to projects that promise a lot but haven't delivered what he wanted. At least Alonso hit the summit before things started to go downhill...
Given Alonso's patience with failed projects (five years with Ferrari, four now with McLaren), it would be bonkers for Ricciardo to go where even the Spaniard has had enough.
Ricciardo dodged questions about Honda, batting away comments about his visit to its Sakura facility
Of course, Mercedes or Ferrari would be Ricciardo's preferred route out of Red Bull should he choose to seek greener pastures, because of the much greater chance of short-term success and the title he craves at those squads. Unfortunately, the Mercedes situation appears the same as ever - Hamilton and one of either Valtteri Bottas or Esteban Ocon - while Ferrari is now tantalisingly close to picking Charles Leclerc to replace Kimi Raikkonen, who appears to have finally lost the faith of the Scuderia's hierarchy. Ricciardo was seriously considered, but deemed too expensive.
Therefore, McLaren and Renault are viewed as Ricciardo's only realistic options. But just how have they become even semi-serious choices, given Ricciardo has won two races with Red Bull this year, while Renault is a long way from earning a podium on merit, and McLaren is on a three-race pointless run?
In the aftermath of Red Bull's announcement that it would switch to Honda engines, Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul claimed the call could have unexpected consequences for the driver market. Abiteboul's remark has generally been interpreted as a suggestion that Ricciardo will jump ship if he doesn't share Red Bull's faith in Honda.
During the French Grand Prix weekend, Ricciardo did two things to suggest this is a plausible hypothesis. First, as covered, he confirmed the prospect of a joining project like McLaren or Renault does pique his interest on some level. Second, he dodged questions about Honda, batting away comments about his visit to the Japanese manufacturer's Sakura facility and saying he needed to consider it properly now that the call has been made.
Ricciardo's caginess when dealing with Honda questions compares starkly to the effusive praise dished out by team-mate Max Verstappen. But the two drivers are in very different positions. Given Verstappen is under lock and key at Red Bull for next year, it would make very little sense for him to be publicly outspoken.
Ricciardo, on the other hand, does not need to mince his words. So, is he worried about Honda? Is he seriously considering gambling on McLaren or Renault? Or is he just trying to nudge his value a little higher by making Red Bull think he needs a bit more convincing to stick around?
Red Bull team boss Christian Horner believes Ricciardo will re-sign. On the record, he said this: "I think that there is an intent from both sides to move forward. The first thing was to close the situation with the engine. That has now been done and Daniel understands the engineering rationale behind that.
"Let's not forget that he has been in a car that in the last couple of grands prix has been lapping the [McLaren and Renault] cars. So, it would be a fairly bold decision to step out of a car that he has won two grands prix in this year as a championship contender. I would be surprised if he was to leave, because it's a good fit between himself and Red Bull, but it is Formula 1."
Indeed, it is still the same F1 in which Hamilton shocked so many people six years ago with his decision to leave McLaren. And as Ricciardo said, "obviously he's done well for himself with that move", but that does not make Hamilton an automatic template for others to follow. Ricciardo, to his credit, knows that: "Whether it's just a fantasy for everyone else, I don't know. But at least there's a little bit of proof that something like that could potentially happen again."
Ricciardo would be clutching at straws if he genuinely believes McLaren offers that opportunity. So, surely, that rules out Woking. Renault is less far-fetched as an option. The Enstone outfit's progress has been obvious since its works return in 2016 and it is currently a more competitive package than McLaren - it's F1's most consistent best-of-the-rest.
The trouble there is Renault's stagnation on engine development, at least compared to the benchmark power unit manufacturers, is what has stopped Red Bull doing more than just winning the odd race since 2014. It's one of the chief reasons Red Bull does not have the confidence to continue with Renault in the short-term.
So, what evidence is there to suggest Renault or McLaren offers more chance at success than Red Bull? And if Ricciardo still has eyes on a medium-term project, which at 28 is not unviable, then why would he not want to be part of the Honda journey, even if the first year or two is a little rough? At the very least, he would know that his team (Red Bull) can build a chassis that can challenge for the title. The engine would be the only question mark, which is not the case at Renault or McLaren.
Of course, the other reason Red Bull split from Renault is because it viewed the works team's rise as a guaranteed conflict, regardless of the rules demanding engine equality. Deep down, Red Bull feels that if Renault ever gets to the level of fighting for titles with its own squad, it would not be a straight fight against it for its customer. That means there is clearly a part of Red Bull that thinks Renault can get there eventually, and being at the centre of a works project committed to the world title while escaping the Verstappen matrix within Red Bull has obvious temptations for Ricciardo.
If his alternative to Red Bull was as clear-cut as what Mercedes offered Hamilton in 2012, Ricciardo would be sitting pretty - but it isn't
It's fair to say Renault is not completely invalid but Ricciardo admitted earlier this year, after a major engine failure in China, the window of optimism about its capacity for progress was shrinking.
He's identified this call as the most important of his senior racing career, and second most important in life - only behind leaving Australia in the first place to race in Europe. Picking Renault because he's looking at its glass as half-full would be a big gamble to base a choice of such magnitude on.
It's still difficult to see why there's a call to make at all. If his alternative to Red Bull was as clear-cut as what Mercedes offered Hamilton six years ago, Ricciardo would be sitting pretty. But it isn't.
If Ricciardo is smart, he'll realise Red Bull and Honda offer a title vision rooted in a firmer reality and stop chasing Hamilton's dream scenario. If he's not, he'll end up trapped in Alonso's nightmare, with the same frustrations but none of the past glories for compensation.
