首先，大多数人都知道TK是谁吧。
原文巨长无比，标题是Kawakami: The Warriors’ new Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins deals and what they mean for Draymond Green，就是普洱和维金斯续约对格林意味着啥？
尽量翻一些重点。
先说了下普洱的合约与希罗的对比，大体都差不多，保障部分就多3M。然后说了下最近发生的事儿：十天前格林化身腕豪来了一套屈人之威加蓄意轰拳接强手裂颅未遂的连招，然后现在普洱和维金斯续约了。
接下来是有点干货的。我直接截部分原文，翻也直翻重点。
But the Poole deal is the first domino in a series of contractual moves to come, all framed by competing factors: the extreme luxury-tax crunch set to hit the Warriors next July and their desire to field a roster that can keep winning championships. How can Joe Lacob & Co. maintain an elite roster while avoiding a $500 million total payroll commitment, which I’m told would lead to at least $100 million in red ink for the franchise? The Poole contract is their first big deal within this tightening financial universe.
拉科布要保持争冠阵容，但是也要避免避免 5 亿美元的总工资，据我所知，这将为球队带来至少 1 亿美元的亏损？
Talk about getting all of the family’s business done in one swoop. The Poole contract set the stage for the Wiggins deal and now the Wiggins deal sets the stage for … no Draymond deal with the Warriors, at least not for a while and maybe not at all.
两人的续约没给格林续约奠定啥基础。
Simply, unless the Warriors want to dramatically increase their tax burden, which Lacob and others say they will not do, the Warriors can’t increase their future payroll beyond the current number of about $190 million (which will trigger about $190 million in tax penalties for a total commitment of about $380 million). Every future raise means they have to find a way to cut the payroll by the same amount. Remember, every new dollar added to their payroll counts as $8 or more for the salary commitment (depending on the ascending tax penalties).
简单地说，除非勇士队想要大幅增加他们的税收负担（拉科布和其他人说他们不会这样做），否则勇士队不能将未来薪资超过1.9 亿美元（这将引发约 1.9 亿美元的税收处罚，总薪资3.8 亿美元）。未来的每一次加薪都意味着他们必须找到一种方法将工资单削减相同的数量。请记住，在他们的工资单中增加的每一美元都计为 8 美元或更多的工资（取决于递增的税收处罚）
Poole will make $3.9 million this season on his rookie deal. When his new deal starts next season, he’ll be making slightly less than $28 million. That’s a $24 million increase next season that the Warriors will have to balance out with $24 million in decreases elsewhere. Wiggins’ deal cuts $9.3 million from the payroll, but the Warriors still need $14.7 million in cuts just to keep the payroll commitment at around $380 million.
普尔本赛季将通过他的新秀合同赚到 390 万美元。下赛季他的收入将略低于 2800 万美元。下赛季增加了 2400 万美元，勇士队将不得不在其他地方减少 2400 万美元来平衡。威金斯的交易从工资单中削减了 930 万美元，勇士队仍然需要削减 1470 万美元才能将薪资保持在 3.8 亿美元左右。
普洱的合约预计
2023-24: $27.6 million
2024-25: $29.8 million
2025-26: $32 million
2026-27: $34.2 million
这个是按照4年1.23亿美金保障部分的预计，涨幅8%，但我印象中容易达到的部分也会计入工资帽，普洱的保障部分加上容易获得的部分（500万美金）加起来是1.28亿美金，还是全计入？全计入应该就是3100万然后往回扣。但大部分激励应该是拿不到，应该影响不大。
维金斯的合同：
2023-24: $24.3 million
2024-25: $26.2 million
2025-26: $28.2 million
2026-27: $30.1 million, reportedly with a player option
Could Poole have gotten more? (How about Wiggins?)
This wasn’t Poole’s max. The max for any player eligible for a rookie extension (as a former first-round pick) is 25 percent of the cap, which, with a $134 million estimated cap number for 2023-24, would generate a starting salary of $33.5 million. Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and Darius Garland all received the max five-year, $193 million extensions this offseason. (You can only get the fifth year in this situation if you get a max salary.)
Wiggins could’ve gotten the 10-year veteran max of $46.9 million next season if he had let this contract expire and hit free agency. Or he could’ve demanded a 20 percent raise from this year’s salary of $33.6 million. But Wiggins wasn’t going to get that from the Warriors and clearly was OK with that to remain in this environment. Plus, he’s already made almost $140 million in his career.
普尔能得到更多吗？ （威金斯呢？）
这不是普尔的顶薪，任何有资格获得新秀续约的球员（作为前首轮选秀权）的上限是工资帽的 25%，如果 2023-24 赛季的工资帽估计为 1.34 亿美元，则顶薪起薪为3350 万美元。锡安威廉姆森、贾莫兰特和达柳斯加兰都在这个休赛期获得了最长五年价值 1.93 亿美元的续约。 （只能在这种情况下获得第五年。）
如果维金斯让这份合同到期并成为自由球员，他下赛季本可以得到 10 年老将最高 4690 万美元。或者他本可以要求将今年 3360 万美元的薪水提高 20%。
根据规则两人都「降薪」了，但实际上大家也知道市场价不会是这么多，TK在文章里说普洱的时候也隐晦提过这点，我没截取，表示那几位是明星球员，普洱还是不同，属于那种潜力新人，已经比希罗和巴雷特的合同好了。
Isn’t $122.7 million for three guards next season a bit much?
Yep, Curry will make $51.9 million next season. Klay Thompson will make $43.2 million. Add in Poole’s $27.6 million and … whew
I’ve already been asked about the possibility of trading Klay. The answer: The $83.8 million he’s owed this season and next makes him far more valuable playing for the Warriors than he would be in any trade. He remains important to the Warriors and proved it last postseason, but at that salary, the only way they could possibly move off of him is if they added Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman or several future first-round picks in the deal to do it. And they don’t want to do that.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are quietly noting that Klay plays a lot of forward these days; he even played power forward for stints against the Celtics in the finals.
下赛季三名后卫的1.227亿美元是不是有点多？
多，不解释。
问过交易克莱的可能性，但答案是现在对勇士来说很重要，而因为他薪水太高了，交易他可能需要打上JK，怀斯曼，或者未来选秀，这肯定不行
与此同时，勇士队悄悄地注意到克莱最近打了很多前锋。他甚至在总决赛打过大前。
Does this mean Draymond is on his way out?
The Warriors have to find $14 million or so to cut next season and now the target is squarely on Draymond’s money. Before this weekend, we knew that the simplest way for the Warriors to get to their desired salary spot in 2023-24 was to let either Poole, Wiggins or Draymond go next July. And … they just extended Poole and Wiggins.
Of course, the Warriors don’t have to make any final decision on Draymond right now. He was away from the team for a week, came back, and there have been no further aggravating circumstances. He wants to play. The Warriors want him to play. But with Draymond, there could always be a new aggravation. The Warriors can live with this for another season because Draymond remains immensely valuable. But the dollars are driving this now. July 2023 is coming up. The Warriors knew they had big decisions to make right now, and 10 days ago Draymond hit Poole.
The stage is being set for Draymond to depart this team in July or earlier, quite frankly.
Why Wiggins over Draymond? Wiggins is 27, has always been durable and proved his value as a two-way wing in the playoffs. Draymond is 32, has had health issues the last few years and just created what Steve Kerr called “the biggest crisis that we’ve ever had since I’ve been coach here.”
Also: If you’ve got that much banked on a Curry/Poole/Klay backcourt rotation, you absolutely need somebody else who can guard the best offensive wing players. Which Wiggins already did in the playoffs.
Look at the roster construction: The Warriors have loaded up at the big-forward and center spots in the draft lately with Wiseman, Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin Jr. You can toss Moses Moody in there, too, as a big wing. None of them will be as good as Draymond. Maybe all added up they still won’t play defense like Draymond or move the ball like him. But the Warriors don’t have to play in the future exactly like they did in the past or will this season. Things change.
这是否意味着德雷蒙德即将出局？
勇士队必须找到 1400 万美元左右来削减下赛季。普洱维金斯都续约了，现在就剩格林了。
现在勇士不需要对格林做什么，之前搞了蓄意轰拳，但这事儿已经翻篇了，没进一步恶化，当然，勇士队现在不必对德雷蒙德做出任何最终决定。他离开球队一周，回来了，没有进一步加重情节。但格林，懂的都懂，指不定啥时候有新搞子。勇士队可以再忍受一个赛季，因为他仍然非常有价值。但现在钱摆在这里，坦率地说，球队为格林在 明年7 月或更早离开做好了准备。
为什么维金斯要胜过格林？
维金斯今年 27 岁，耐操拉满，并在季后赛证明了他作为攻防一体前锋的价值，格林32 岁，过去几年一直有健康问题，刚刚制造了科尔所说的“自从我在这里担任教练以来我们遇到的最大危机”。
另外：如果你对库里/普尔/克莱的后场轮换有足够的信心，那么你绝对需要其他可以防守最好的进攻侧翼球员的人，维金斯在季后赛中已经做到了。
看看阵容结构：勇士队最近在选秀中的大前锋和中锋位置上都有怀斯曼、库明加、鲍德温。你也可以把穆迪作为一个大边锋扔在那里。他们都不会像德雷蒙德那样出色。也许所有加起来，他们仍然不会像格林那样防守或像他那样移动球。但勇士队不必像过去或本赛季那样在未来打球。事情会改变的。
TK这段实际也是我个人的看法，看菜做饭，勇士根本没必要抱着1.0这个体系玩儿到天荒地老，之前这个体系很有用因为格林在低位有进攻能力的，加上一手三分。现在格林不但没三分，低位进攻也寄了，内线更是没有顺下高度，鲁尼和当初死人相差甚远，宇宙勇时期更多是阵容碾压。而现在完全是外线驱动，外线扔不进，基本是外线突破，内线对框的威胁太有限了。破局点在二阵容，二阵容的前场天赋比现在的一阵容要好太多。
So is Draymond definitely a short-timer on the Warriors?
No, not definitely. But likely a short-timer, yes.
The Warriors have other options to clean up the salary situation: They could trade Poole or Wiggins next July. But I don’t think they will. They could trade Wiseman. They can try to trade Klay. I don’t think any of those things are happening.
They could also see if Draymond will decline his player option and sign a multiyear deal for less. I think that’s theoretically possible, especially if his value around the league dwindles drastically and he concludes that it’s best to stay in a familiar and winning situation. I call this the Jimmy Garoppolo scenario. But I don’t see Draymond accepting that kind of drop the way Garoppolo did. And I definitely don’t see it after Draymond just watched Poole and Wiggins land deals ahead of him.
It was always the likeliest that this was headed to a zero-sum dollar decision for the future: Poole or Draymond. And it was leaning to Poole even before the incident. He’s younger, the league always values creative scoring, he fits with Curry and Klay, and Poole is set up to be the emotional leader of the Warriors’ youth brigade.
The punch probably only highlighted that. Poole’s big preseason performance last week, when he scored several baskets in a row in his first game since the punching, maybe was the symbolic moment. He took Draymond’s punch. He got up. He didn’t demand instant retribution. And he performed. And the Warriors decided he was a player worth full commitment.
Certainly there are questions about his defensive capabilities, but Poole has gotten slightly better in that category over the last year or so. And Warriors management sees Poole as the future lead offensive option. The Warriors brass is legitimately excited about their young bigs, especially after the strong preseason; but none of them is a creating guard.
The Warriors have Curry, the greatest creative guard in the league. Behind him, they’ve got Poole, the first guy who’s been able to flourish behind Curry in that role. They’re not going to want to lose that.
所以格林在勇士待不了多久了？
不一定，但很可能确实剩不了多久了。勇士有其他选择，明年交易普洱维金斯，交易怀斯曼交易克莱，但我认为这些事儿都发生不了。勇士也可以看格林是否会跳出合同签底薪续约，理论上可行，特别是他身价下降，认为最好就在熟悉且能赢球的环境。但TK目前认为不行。
实际在蓄意轰拳事件发生前普洱这边就有利，这一拳可能只是突出了这一点。普尔对湖人的比赛打的很好，他接住了德雷蒙德的拳头。他起来了。他没有要求立即报复。他秀了。所以球队认为他是一个值得全身心投入的球员。
当然，关于他的防守能力还存在一些质疑，但他在过去一年左右的时间里已经有所提高。勇士队管理层将普尔视为未来的进攻发起点。勇士队的高层对年轻大个子感到非常兴奋，尤其是在季前赛之后。但他们都不是创造（进攻）的或未
勇士队拥有联盟中最有创造力的后卫库里。在他身后，他们有普尔，第一个能够在库里身后发挥作用的后卫。勇士不想失去这一点。
Can Draymond be traded?
There’s no reason to think he can’t be traded, whatever he does with his player option.
Draymond can decline his player option and become a free agent in July, though that might not be the most likely scenario. He might not get that $27.6 million salary any other way. It’s probably wisest for him to exercise the option and then see what he and the Warriors can agree to. If Draymond plays great this season and the Warriors go deep, maybe he can return. I’d put that as a lesser chance than many others, but there’s always a chance.
If Draymond opts into the contract, he can work with the Warriors to find a trade. And Draymond on a one-year deal would be pretty valuable on the trade market. Or through the course of trade discussions, the Warriors could let Draymond and the acquiring team discuss a short-term extension, which would help his value even more.
Notable point: Draymond’s contract has a 15 percent trade kicker (through this season and then next, if he opts into next season). I don’t think that’d be a major problem next offseason if both sides are ready to move on, though. I think we just saw on Saturday that the Warriors are not afraid to let Draymond know that they are certainly ready for this. They put their money on it. A lot of money. And none of it is going to him.
格林会被交易吗？
没有理由认为他不能被交易，无论他用球员选项做什么。
格林可以在七月拒绝球员选项并成为自由球员，但这情况不是最可能。他可能无法以任何其他方式获得那 2760 万美元的薪水。对他来说，最明智的做法可能是行使选择权，然后看看他和勇士队能同意什么。如果本赛季他表现出色并且勇士队能走的更远，也许他可以回归。TK认为这是比其他人更小的机会，但总有机会。
如果选择签约，他可以与勇士队一起寻找交易。而他一年的合同在交易市场上非常有价值。或者通过交易讨论的过程，勇士可以让格林团队短期续约，这将更有助于他的价值。
格林有15%的交易保证金，不过如果双方都准备翻篇了，这不是什么认为，上周六我想我们看到勇士并不害怕让格林知道他们已经为此（格林离队）做好了准备。
个人看法：
文章里关于球队3.8亿-4亿预算这个，应该是可信的，大家也都心照不宣，拉科布和迈尔斯之前都有报道过，而且还不止一次，表示他们花掉了每一分挣的钱，简单来说，目前判断就是收支平衡。
TK和拉科布在夺冠后专门也做过一期谈话，半个多小时，那里拉科布也提到过这事儿，TK没诈出来具体数字，但口风判断基本是4亿美刀上下。说真的，这个营收很夸张了。但如果支出再高，也遭不住。老板是商人，不可能用爱发电，现在这情况已经有点边挣钱边发电的意思了，又不是鲍尔默，就像搞个现实2K弄个老来乐，就算如此人鲍尔默也得要球队的报表好看点，不可能一水儿亏损，老板愿意高管也得要脸。
现在奢侈税1:8，扛不住。勇士有鸟权，只要烧钱就能无视空间帽上续约，但不代表没支出上限。不过维金斯和普洱的续约基本上已经让目前的勇士找到了破局的可能，因为现在2.0时间轴已经完毕了，普洱，穆迪，维金斯，库明加，怀斯曼，这阵容要是都成长起来……先不YY。就算JK不及预期也有维金斯这个当打前锋做保底，还要PBJ。所以现在只需要搞1.0时间轴，准确的说就是格林。
形式还是很明显的。实际现在就这么几种可能。
格林跳出直接走人，可能性不大，但如果这赛季他状态还行不排除提前找好下家和勇士分手，勇士的总支出届时会直接降到3亿上下，老板肯定能接受，缺点就是只能靠迷你中产补强，和历年休赛期一样，没有空间裸签，只能赌JK成长足够好。
格林跳出合同和勇士谈续约，格林的合同如果按照这一份合约的涨幅续约，基本是和普洱现在的合同差不多。这不可能，如果签四年一亿保持现在水平，勇士的薪水支出在4.4亿左右，还是超支出。除非这赛季格林爆C，梦回五年前球队夺冠，老板或许会考虑。当然如果格林签什么三年五千万，四年七千万这种，勇士估计会乐意让他归队。还有种情况就是签短约，格林跳出签个一年1500万渡过24年，之后克莱降薪格林再签个长约。
格林执行选项。这样勇士的总薪资飙升到五亿美金左右，指望老板们有什么隐形投资产业暴涨……或者卖股份回血，不然基本上就会交易格林了。
实际这笔账也很清楚，1400万美金，或者在我看来1500万美金上下吧，取决普洱起薪，勇士就是想在24年省这笔钱，然后等克莱降薪。
目前大家基本默认克莱会降薪的，但个人判断，言之过早，的确理论上克莱基本应该降薪，毕竟这份合同说实话基本是垃圾合同，养了两年半，就算他身手恢复到和19年没差，顶薪打两年半，这也是垃圾合同。于情于理克莱应该降薪，但克莱是个心气很高的球员，肯定是想先证明自己的能力，届时再看吧。
首先，大多数人都知道TK是谁吧。
原文巨长无比，标题是Kawakami: The Warriors’ new Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins deals and what they mean for Draymond Green，就是普洱和维金斯续约对格林意味着啥？
尽量翻一些重点。
先说了下普洱的合约与希罗的对比，大体都差不多，保障部分就多3M。然后说了下最近发生的事儿：十天前格林化身腕豪来了一套屈人之威加蓄意轰拳接强手裂颅未遂的连招，然后现在普洱和维金斯续约了。
接下来是有点干货的。我直接截部分原文，翻也直翻重点。
But the Poole deal is the first domino in a series of contractual moves to come, all framed by competing factors: the extreme luxury-tax crunch set to hit the Warriors next July and their desire to field a roster that can keep winning championships. How can Joe Lacob & Co. maintain an elite roster while avoiding a $500 million total payroll commitment, which I’m told would lead to at least $100 million in red ink for the franchise? The Poole contract is their first big deal within this tightening financial universe.
拉科布要保持争冠阵容，但是也要避免避免 5 亿美元的总工资，据我所知，这将为球队带来至少 1 亿美元的亏损？
Talk about getting all of the family’s business done in one swoop. The Poole contract set the stage for the Wiggins deal and now the Wiggins deal sets the stage for … no Draymond deal with the Warriors, at least not for a while and maybe not at all.
两人的续约没给格林续约奠定啥基础。
Simply, unless the Warriors want to dramatically increase their tax burden, which Lacob and others say they will not do, the Warriors can’t increase their future payroll beyond the current number of about $190 million (which will trigger about $190 million in tax penalties for a total commitment of about $380 million). Every future raise means they have to find a way to cut the payroll by the same amount. Remember, every new dollar added to their payroll counts as $8 or more for the salary commitment (depending on the ascending tax penalties).
简单地说，除非勇士队想要大幅增加他们的税收负担（拉科布和其他人说他们不会这样做），否则勇士队不能将未来薪资超过1.9 亿美元（这将引发约 1.9 亿美元的税收处罚，总薪资3.8 亿美元）。未来的每一次加薪都意味着他们必须找到一种方法将工资单削减相同的数量。请记住，在他们的工资单中增加的每一美元都计为 8 美元或更多的工资（取决于递增的税收处罚）
Poole will make $3.9 million this season on his rookie deal. When his new deal starts next season, he’ll be making slightly less than $28 million. That’s a $24 million increase next season that the Warriors will have to balance out with $24 million in decreases elsewhere. Wiggins’ deal cuts $9.3 million from the payroll, but the Warriors still need $14.7 million in cuts just to keep the payroll commitment at around $380 million.
普尔本赛季将通过他的新秀合同赚到 390 万美元。下赛季他的收入将略低于 2800 万美元。下赛季增加了 2400 万美元，勇士队将不得不在其他地方减少 2400 万美元来平衡。威金斯的交易从工资单中削减了 930 万美元，勇士队仍然需要削减 1470 万美元才能将薪资保持在 3.8 亿美元左右。
普洱的合约预计
2023-24: $27.6 million
2024-25: $29.8 million
2025-26: $32 million
2026-27: $34.2 million
这个是按照4年1.23亿美金保障部分的预计，涨幅8%，但我印象中容易达到的部分也会计入工资帽，普洱的保障部分加上容易获得的部分（500万美金）加起来是1.28亿美金，还是全计入？全计入应该就是3100万然后往回扣。但大部分激励应该是拿不到，应该影响不大。
维金斯的合同：
2023-24: $24.3 million
2024-25: $26.2 million
2025-26: $28.2 million
2026-27: $30.1 million, reportedly with a player option
Could Poole have gotten more? (How about Wiggins?)
This wasn’t Poole’s max. The max for any player eligible for a rookie extension (as a former first-round pick) is 25 percent of the cap, which, with a $134 million estimated cap number for 2023-24, would generate a starting salary of $33.5 million. Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and Darius Garland all received the max five-year, $193 million extensions this offseason. (You can only get the fifth year in this situation if you get a max salary.)
Wiggins could’ve gotten the 10-year veteran max of $46.9 million next season if he had let this contract expire and hit free agency. Or he could’ve demanded a 20 percent raise from this year’s salary of $33.6 million. But Wiggins wasn’t going to get that from the Warriors and clearly was OK with that to remain in this environment. Plus, he’s already made almost $140 million in his career.
普尔能得到更多吗？ （威金斯呢？）
这不是普尔的顶薪，任何有资格获得新秀续约的球员（作为前首轮选秀权）的上限是工资帽的 25%，如果 2023-24 赛季的工资帽估计为 1.34 亿美元，则顶薪起薪为3350 万美元。锡安威廉姆森、贾莫兰特和达柳斯加兰都在这个休赛期获得了最长五年价值 1.93 亿美元的续约。 （只能在这种情况下获得第五年。）
如果维金斯让这份合同到期并成为自由球员，他下赛季本可以得到 10 年老将最高 4690 万美元。或者他本可以要求将今年 3360 万美元的薪水提高 20%。
根据规则两人都「降薪」了，但实际上大家也知道市场价不会是这么多，TK在文章里说普洱的时候也隐晦提过这点，我没截取，表示那几位是明星球员，普洱还是不同，属于那种潜力新人，已经比希罗和巴雷特的合同好了。
Isn’t $122.7 million for three guards next season a bit much?
Yep, Curry will make $51.9 million next season. Klay Thompson will make $43.2 million. Add in Poole’s $27.6 million and … whew
I’ve already been asked about the possibility of trading Klay. The answer: The $83.8 million he’s owed this season and next makes him far more valuable playing for the Warriors than he would be in any trade. He remains important to the Warriors and proved it last postseason, but at that salary, the only way they could possibly move off of him is if they added Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman or several future first-round picks in the deal to do it. And they don’t want to do that.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are quietly noting that Klay plays a lot of forward these days; he even played power forward for stints against the Celtics in the finals.
下赛季三名后卫的1.227亿美元是不是有点多？
多，不解释。
问过交易克莱的可能性，但答案是现在对勇士来说很重要，而因为他薪水太高了，交易他可能需要打上JK，怀斯曼，或者未来选秀，这肯定不行
与此同时，勇士队悄悄地注意到克莱最近打了很多前锋。他甚至在总决赛打过大前。
Does this mean Draymond is on his way out?
The Warriors have to find $14 million or so to cut next season and now the target is squarely on Draymond’s money. Before this weekend, we knew that the simplest way for the Warriors to get to their desired salary spot in 2023-24 was to let either Poole, Wiggins or Draymond go next July. And … they just extended Poole and Wiggins.
Of course, the Warriors don’t have to make any final decision on Draymond right now. He was away from the team for a week, came back, and there have been no further aggravating circumstances. He wants to play. The Warriors want him to play. But with Draymond, there could always be a new aggravation. The Warriors can live with this for another season because Draymond remains immensely valuable. But the dollars are driving this now. July 2023 is coming up. The Warriors knew they had big decisions to make right now, and 10 days ago Draymond hit Poole.
The stage is being set for Draymond to depart this team in July or earlier, quite frankly.
Why Wiggins over Draymond? Wiggins is 27, has always been durable and proved his value as a two-way wing in the playoffs. Draymond is 32, has had health issues the last few years and just created what Steve Kerr called “the biggest crisis that we’ve ever had since I’ve been coach here.”
Also: If you’ve got that much banked on a Curry/Poole/Klay backcourt rotation, you absolutely need somebody else who can guard the best offensive wing players. Which Wiggins already did in the playoffs.
Look at the roster construction: The Warriors have loaded up at the big-forward and center spots in the draft lately with Wiseman, Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin Jr. You can toss Moses Moody in there, too, as a big wing. None of them will be as good as Draymond. Maybe all added up they still won’t play defense like Draymond or move the ball like him. But the Warriors don’t have to play in the future exactly like they did in the past or will this season. Things change.
这是否意味着德雷蒙德即将出局？
勇士队必须找到 1400 万美元左右来削减下赛季。普洱维金斯都续约了，现在就剩格林了。
现在勇士不需要对格林做什么，之前搞了蓄意轰拳，但这事儿已经翻篇了，没进一步恶化，当然，勇士队现在不必对德雷蒙德做出任何最终决定。他离开球队一周，回来了，没有进一步加重情节。但格林，懂的都懂，指不定啥时候有新搞子。勇士队可以再忍受一个赛季，因为他仍然非常有价值。但现在钱摆在这里，坦率地说，球队为格林在 明年7 月或更早离开做好了准备。
为什么维金斯要胜过格林？
维金斯今年 27 岁，耐操拉满，并在季后赛证明了他作为攻防一体前锋的价值，格林32 岁，过去几年一直有健康问题，刚刚制造了科尔所说的“自从我在这里担任教练以来我们遇到的最大危机”。
另外：如果你对库里/普尔/克莱的后场轮换有足够的信心，那么你绝对需要其他可以防守最好的进攻侧翼球员的人，维金斯在季后赛中已经做到了。
看看阵容结构：勇士队最近在选秀中的大前锋和中锋位置上都有怀斯曼、库明加、鲍德温。你也可以把穆迪作为一个大边锋扔在那里。他们都不会像德雷蒙德那样出色。也许所有加起来，他们仍然不会像格林那样防守或像他那样移动球。但勇士队不必像过去或本赛季那样在未来打球。事情会改变的。
TK这段实际也是我个人的看法，看菜做饭，勇士根本没必要抱着1.0这个体系玩儿到天荒地老，之前这个体系很有用因为格林在低位有进攻能力的，加上一手三分。现在格林不但没三分，低位进攻也寄了，内线更是没有顺下高度，鲁尼和当初死人相差甚远，宇宙勇时期更多是阵容碾压。而现在完全是外线驱动，外线扔不进，基本是外线突破，内线对框的威胁太有限了。破局点在二阵容，二阵容的前场天赋比现在的一阵容要好太多。
So is Draymond definitely a short-timer on the Warriors?
No, not definitely. But likely a short-timer, yes.
The Warriors have other options to clean up the salary situation: They could trade Poole or Wiggins next July. But I don’t think they will. They could trade Wiseman. They can try to trade Klay. I don’t think any of those things are happening.
They could also see if Draymond will decline his player option and sign a multiyear deal for less. I think that’s theoretically possible, especially if his value around the league dwindles drastically and he concludes that it’s best to stay in a familiar and winning situation. I call this the Jimmy Garoppolo scenario. But I don’t see Draymond accepting that kind of drop the way Garoppolo did. And I definitely don’t see it after Draymond just watched Poole and Wiggins land deals ahead of him.
It was always the likeliest that this was headed to a zero-sum dollar decision for the future: Poole or Draymond. And it was leaning to Poole even before the incident. He’s younger, the league always values creative scoring, he fits with Curry and Klay, and Poole is set up to be the emotional leader of the Warriors’ youth brigade.
The punch probably only highlighted that. Poole’s big preseason performance last week, when he scored several baskets in a row in his first game since the punching, maybe was the symbolic moment. He took Draymond’s punch. He got up. He didn’t demand instant retribution. And he performed. And the Warriors decided he was a player worth full commitment.
Certainly there are questions about his defensive capabilities, but Poole has gotten slightly better in that category over the last year or so. And Warriors management sees Poole as the future lead offensive option. The Warriors brass is legitimately excited about their young bigs, especially after the strong preseason; but none of them is a creating guard.
The Warriors have Curry, the greatest creative guard in the league. Behind him, they’ve got Poole, the first guy who’s been able to flourish behind Curry in that role. They’re not going to want to lose that.
所以格林在勇士待不了多久了？
不一定，但很可能确实剩不了多久了。勇士有其他选择，明年交易普洱维金斯，交易怀斯曼交易克莱，但我认为这些事儿都发生不了。勇士也可以看格林是否会跳出合同签底薪续约，理论上可行，特别是他身价下降，认为最好就在熟悉且能赢球的环境。但TK目前认为不行。
实际在蓄意轰拳事件发生前普洱这边就有利，这一拳可能只是突出了这一点。普尔对湖人的比赛打的很好，他接住了德雷蒙德的拳头。他起来了。他没有要求立即报复。他秀了。所以球队认为他是一个值得全身心投入的球员。
当然，关于他的防守能力还存在一些质疑，但他在过去一年左右的时间里已经有所提高。勇士队管理层将普尔视为未来的进攻发起点。勇士队的高层对年轻大个子感到非常兴奋，尤其是在季前赛之后。但他们都不是创造（进攻）的或未
勇士队拥有联盟中最有创造力的后卫库里。在他身后，他们有普尔，第一个能够在库里身后发挥作用的后卫。勇士不想失去这一点。
Can Draymond be traded?
There’s no reason to think he can’t be traded, whatever he does with his player option.
Draymond can decline his player option and become a free agent in July, though that might not be the most likely scenario. He might not get that $27.6 million salary any other way. It’s probably wisest for him to exercise the option and then see what he and the Warriors can agree to. If Draymond plays great this season and the Warriors go deep, maybe he can return. I’d put that as a lesser chance than many others, but there’s always a chance.
If Draymond opts into the contract, he can work with the Warriors to find a trade. And Draymond on a one-year deal would be pretty valuable on the trade market. Or through the course of trade discussions, the Warriors could let Draymond and the acquiring team discuss a short-term extension, which would help his value even more.
Notable point: Draymond’s contract has a 15 percent trade kicker (through this season and then next, if he opts into next season). I don’t think that’d be a major problem next offseason if both sides are ready to move on, though. I think we just saw on Saturday that the Warriors are not afraid to let Draymond know that they are certainly ready for this. They put their money on it. A lot of money. And none of it is going to him.
格林会被交易吗？
没有理由认为他不能被交易，无论他用球员选项做什么。
格林可以在七月拒绝球员选项并成为自由球员，但这情况不是最可能。他可能无法以任何其他方式获得那 2760 万美元的薪水。对他来说，最明智的做法可能是行使选择权，然后看看他和勇士队能同意什么。如果本赛季他表现出色并且勇士队能走的更远，也许他可以回归。TK认为这是比其他人更小的机会，但总有机会。
如果选择签约，他可以与勇士队一起寻找交易。而他一年的合同在交易市场上非常有价值。或者通过交易讨论的过程，勇士可以让格林团队短期续约，这将更有助于他的价值。
格林有15%的交易保证金，不过如果双方都准备翻篇了，这不是什么认为，上周六我想我们看到勇士并不害怕让格林知道他们已经为此（格林离队）做好了准备。
个人看法：
文章里关于球队3.8亿-4亿预算这个，应该是可信的，大家也都心照不宣，拉科布和迈尔斯之前都有报道过，而且还不止一次，表示他们花掉了每一分挣的钱，简单来说，目前判断就是收支平衡。
TK和拉科布在夺冠后专门也做过一期谈话，半个多小时，那里拉科布也提到过这事儿，TK没诈出来具体数字，但口风判断基本是4亿美刀上下。说真的，这个营收很夸张了。但如果支出再高，也遭不住。老板是商人，不可能用爱发电，现在这情况已经有点边挣钱边发电的意思了，又不是鲍尔默，就像搞个现实2K弄个老来乐，就算如此人鲍尔默也得要球队的报表好看点，不可能一水儿亏损，老板愿意高管也得要脸。
现在奢侈税1:8，扛不住。勇士有鸟权，只要烧钱就能无视空间帽上续约，但不代表没支出上限。不过维金斯和普洱的续约基本上已经让目前的勇士找到了破局的可能，因为现在2.0时间轴已经完毕了，普洱，穆迪，维金斯，库明加，怀斯曼，这阵容要是都成长起来……先不YY。就算JK不及预期也有维金斯这个当打前锋做保底，还要PBJ。所以现在只需要搞1.0时间轴，准确的说就是格林。
形式还是很明显的。实际现在就这么几种可能。
格林跳出直接走人，可能性不大，但如果这赛季他状态还行不排除提前找好下家和勇士分手，勇士的总支出届时会直接降到3亿上下，老板肯定能接受，缺点就是只能靠迷你中产补强，和历年休赛期一样，没有空间裸签，只能赌JK成长足够好。
格林跳出合同和勇士谈续约，格林的合同如果按照这一份合约的涨幅续约，基本是和普洱现在的合同差不多。这不可能，如果签四年一亿保持现在水平，勇士的薪水支出在4.4亿左右，还是超支出。除非这赛季格林爆C，梦回五年前球队夺冠，老板或许会考虑。当然如果格林签什么三年五千万，四年七千万这种，勇士估计会乐意让他归队。还有种情况就是签短约，格林跳出签个一年1500万渡过24年，之后克莱降薪格林再签个长约。
格林执行选项。这样勇士的总薪资飙升到五亿美金左右，指望老板们有什么隐形投资产业暴涨……或者卖股份回血，不然基本上就会交易格林了。
实际这笔账也很清楚，1400万美金，或者在我看来1500万美金上下吧，取决普洱起薪，勇士就是想在24年省这笔钱，然后等克莱降薪。
目前大家基本默认克莱会降薪的，但个人判断，言之过早，的确理论上克莱基本应该降薪，毕竟这份合同说实话基本是垃圾合同，养了两年半，就算他身手恢复到和19年没差，顶薪打两年半，这也是垃圾合同。于情于理克莱应该降薪，但克莱是个心气很高的球员，肯定是想先证明自己的能力，届时再看吧。
