European soccer betting guide: Manchester City favored to win another Premier League title
The European soccer season is getting an early start this season thanks to the World Cup taking place in November and December as opposed to this summer. That will wreak havoc on the club schedule, but also means we get the season starting this weekend in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. La Liga and Serie A start next weekend.
As far as betting odds are concerned, all the familiar faces are favored. In four of the five biggest leagues, the defending champion is favored to repeat as champion. In three of the five leagues, there is a minus odds favorite.
All odds are from BetMGM.
English Premier League odds
While the Champions League trophy still eludes Manchester City, the club has won back-to-back Premier League titles and four of the last five. Erling Haaland’s addition, in theory, is the missing piece up top City didn’t have in recent years.
Liverpool (+225) is a decent value on paper after finishing one point shy of City last season. The Reds sold Sadio Mané to Bayern Munich but spent big money to get Darwin Nuñez from Benfica in the attack.
It’s surprising to see Tottenham third in the title odds ahead of Chelsea. Spurs added Clement Lenglet (Barcelona) and Dejan Kulusevski (Juventus) on loan. Still, Chelsea finished ahead of Spurs last season and added Raheem Sterling (Manchester City) and Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli) while losing Antonio Rüdiger to Real Madrid.
The race for the top four to make the Champions League should be interesting again. Arsenal missed out on fourth by two points after losing two of its final three matches last season. The Gunners added Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from Man City to boost their hopes of getting back into Europe’s top competition. Arsenal gets a tricky test to open the Premier League Friday at Crystal Palace, which was a solid 12th last season.
There isn’t much love for Erik ten Hag’s project at Manchester United. United has the sixth-best title odds but is only +150 to finish in the top four.
Top goalscorer odds
The league’s top scorer race gets a new favorite in Haaland. It makes sense. After all, in the past two Bundesliga seasons, Haaland scored more goals (49) than he made starts (48) and now he doesn’t have to compete with Robert Lewandowski to win the golden boot. If Haaland stays healthy and takes penalties for City, he will be a factor.
However, it’s not yet clear if Haaland will take penalties. Riyad Mahrez and the now-departed Gabriel Jesus converted penalties in league play for City last season. Typically, the golden boot winner comes from a top six club and takes penalties.
Mo Salah and Son Heung-Min both scored 23 goals last season and Son did it without taking penalties for Spurs. Harry Kane takes penalties for Spurs and has averaged 22.5 goals in the last eight seasons. Especially if you believe the relatively bullish odds for Spurs, Kane seems like a good value here.
Relegation odds
Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are the newly promoted sides in the EPL this season. The oddsmakers expect Bournemouth to go back down and have Forest and Fulham next in the odds, but don’t expect all three to go down.
Since the Premier League expanded to 20 teams for the 1995-96 season, only one time did all three newly promoted teams get relegated back to the second tier. That happened in 1997-98 with Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace. In the last 26 seasons, 34 newly promoted sides went straight back down with all three surviving on four occasions, including as recently as the 2017-18 season.
Spanish La Liga odds
Barcelona was a mess much of last season, but still managed to finish second in La Liga with Xavi helming a late season surge as new manager. Now with Lewandowski in the fold it’s hard to overlook Barca, but it’s still not entirely clear what this team will look like with more moves, including departures, still expected.
Real Madrid didn’t appear especially dominant in its run to the Champions League title last season and has had numerous better La Liga seasons in terms of points, but Madrid just manages to win trophies. Los Merengues didn’t land the big fish in Kylian Mbappe and Rüdiger is the only big name addition so far this transfer window.
Beyond the league title race, the top goal scorer race could be fun as well. Lewandowski (+225) is just ahead of Madrid’s Karim Benzema (+250) after Benzema scored a career-high 27 La Liga goals last season.
Italian Serie A odds
Italy had one of the most competitive title races last season and has the most competitive preseason odds this season. Defending champion Milan is only third in the odds. Juventus had won nine straight titles, but has finished fourth two years in a row.
Juve added Ángel Di María and Paul Pogba while seeing Giorgio Chiellini, Matthijs de Ligt and Paulo Dybala depart. Inter has Romelu Lukaku back on loan after a disappointing second stint with Chelsea. Lukaku scored 47 goals in two seasons with Inter before that move to Chelsea. Lukaku and Juve’s Dušan Vlahović are co-favorites for top scorer at +333 just like their clubs are co-favorites for the league title.
José Mourinho’s Roma got a boost in the odds as fourth-favorite to win the title and is even money to qualify for the Champions League despite finishing sixth last season. Roma added Dybala, Nemanja Matic (Man United) and is expected to sign former Liverpool midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum.
German Bundesliga odds
Bayern Munich has won 10 straight Bundesliga titles and even after the loss of Lewandowski is still an overwhelming favorite to make it 11 in a row. Top challenger Borussia Dortmund also lost its leading striker in Haaland. The odds have last year’s top four as the favorites to be this year’s top four again as well.
With Lewandowski and Haaland gone, the top goalscorer race is wide open on paper. Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick (+300) is favored followed by new Bayern addition Mané (+350). Schick scored 24 times last season, second to Lewandowski’s 35.
We’ll get a look at Mané in a Bayern shirt Friday in the season opener at last season’s Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt.
French Ligue 1 odds
After failing to win the league title in 2020-21, PSG was back on top last season for its eighth Ligue 1 title in the last nine years. PSG won the title by 15 points and is the biggest favorite of any of the top five leagues.
Hilariously, the top three favorites for top scorer are all PSG players as well. Last year’s golden boot winner Kylian Mbappe is -160 followed by Leo Messi (+450) and Neymar (+800).
https://theathletic.com/3475128/2022/08/04/european-soccer-betting-guide-manchester-city-favored-to-win-another-premier-league-title/
European soccer betting guide: Manchester City favored to win another Premier League title
The European soccer season is getting an early start this season thanks to the World Cup taking place in November and December as opposed to this summer. That will wreak havoc on the club schedule, but also means we get the season starting this weekend in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. La Liga and Serie A start next weekend.
As far as betting odds are concerned, all the familiar faces are favored. In four of the five biggest leagues, the defending champion is favored to repeat as champion. In three of the five leagues, there is a minus odds favorite.
All odds are from BetMGM.
English Premier League odds
While the Champions League trophy still eludes Manchester City, the club has won back-to-back Premier League titles and four of the last five. Erling Haaland’s addition, in theory, is the missing piece up top City didn’t have in recent years.
Liverpool (+225) is a decent value on paper after finishing one point shy of City last season. The Reds sold Sadio Mané to Bayern Munich but spent big money to get Darwin Nuñez from Benfica in the attack.
It’s surprising to see Tottenham third in the title odds ahead of Chelsea. Spurs added Clement Lenglet (Barcelona) and Dejan Kulusevski (Juventus) on loan. Still, Chelsea finished ahead of Spurs last season and added Raheem Sterling (Manchester City) and Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli) while losing Antonio Rüdiger to Real Madrid.
The race for the top four to make the Champions League should be interesting again. Arsenal missed out on fourth by two points after losing two of its final three matches last season. The Gunners added Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from Man City to boost their hopes of getting back into Europe’s top competition. Arsenal gets a tricky test to open the Premier League Friday at Crystal Palace, which was a solid 12th last season.
There isn’t much love for Erik ten Hag’s project at Manchester United. United has the sixth-best title odds but is only +150 to finish in the top four.
Top goalscorer odds
The league’s top scorer race gets a new favorite in Haaland. It makes sense. After all, in the past two Bundesliga seasons, Haaland scored more goals (49) than he made starts (48) and now he doesn’t have to compete with Robert Lewandowski to win the golden boot. If Haaland stays healthy and takes penalties for City, he will be a factor.
However, it’s not yet clear if Haaland will take penalties. Riyad Mahrez and the now-departed Gabriel Jesus converted penalties in league play for City last season. Typically, the golden boot winner comes from a top six club and takes penalties.
Mo Salah and Son Heung-Min both scored 23 goals last season and Son did it without taking penalties for Spurs. Harry Kane takes penalties for Spurs and has averaged 22.5 goals in the last eight seasons. Especially if you believe the relatively bullish odds for Spurs, Kane seems like a good value here.
Relegation odds
Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are the newly promoted sides in the EPL this season. The oddsmakers expect Bournemouth to go back down and have Forest and Fulham next in the odds, but don’t expect all three to go down.
Since the Premier League expanded to 20 teams for the 1995-96 season, only one time did all three newly promoted teams get relegated back to the second tier. That happened in 1997-98 with Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace. In the last 26 seasons, 34 newly promoted sides went straight back down with all three surviving on four occasions, including as recently as the 2017-18 season.
Spanish La Liga odds
Barcelona was a mess much of last season, but still managed to finish second in La Liga with Xavi helming a late season surge as new manager. Now with Lewandowski in the fold it’s hard to overlook Barca, but it’s still not entirely clear what this team will look like with more moves, including departures, still expected.
Real Madrid didn’t appear especially dominant in its run to the Champions League title last season and has had numerous better La Liga seasons in terms of points, but Madrid just manages to win trophies. Los Merengues didn’t land the big fish in Kylian Mbappe and Rüdiger is the only big name addition so far this transfer window.
Beyond the league title race, the top goal scorer race could be fun as well. Lewandowski (+225) is just ahead of Madrid’s Karim Benzema (+250) after Benzema scored a career-high 27 La Liga goals last season.
Italian Serie A odds
Italy had one of the most competitive title races last season and has the most competitive preseason odds this season. Defending champion Milan is only third in the odds. Juventus had won nine straight titles, but has finished fourth two years in a row.
Juve added Ángel Di María and Paul Pogba while seeing Giorgio Chiellini, Matthijs de Ligt and Paulo Dybala depart. Inter has Romelu Lukaku back on loan after a disappointing second stint with Chelsea. Lukaku scored 47 goals in two seasons with Inter before that move to Chelsea. Lukaku and Juve’s Dušan Vlahović are co-favorites for top scorer at +333 just like their clubs are co-favorites for the league title.
José Mourinho’s Roma got a boost in the odds as fourth-favorite to win the title and is even money to qualify for the Champions League despite finishing sixth last season. Roma added Dybala, Nemanja Matic (Man United) and is expected to sign former Liverpool midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum.
German Bundesliga odds
Bayern Munich has won 10 straight Bundesliga titles and even after the loss of Lewandowski is still an overwhelming favorite to make it 11 in a row. Top challenger Borussia Dortmund also lost its leading striker in Haaland. The odds have last year’s top four as the favorites to be this year’s top four again as well.
With Lewandowski and Haaland gone, the top goalscorer race is wide open on paper. Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick (+300) is favored followed by new Bayern addition Mané (+350). Schick scored 24 times last season, second to Lewandowski’s 35.
We’ll get a look at Mané in a Bayern shirt Friday in the season opener at last season’s Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt.
French Ligue 1 odds
After failing to win the league title in 2020-21, PSG was back on top last season for its eighth Ligue 1 title in the last nine years. PSG won the title by 15 points and is the biggest favorite of any of the top five leagues.
Hilariously, the top three favorites for top scorer are all PSG players as well. Last year’s golden boot winner Kylian Mbappe is -160 followed by Leo Messi (+450) and Neymar (+800).
https://theathletic.com/3475128/2022/08/04/european-soccer-betting-guide-manchester-city-favored-to-win-another-premier-league-title/
