Shopping for Ten Hag: Part Four — a right-back for Manchester United
By Carl Anka and Mark Carey
Welcome to the conclusion of our Shopping For Erik Ten Hag series, in which we use statistical data to identify players who may suit the new Manchester United manager as he looks to strengthen their squad for the 2022-23 season.
Part One looked at defensive midfielders.
Part Two was on right-sided forwards/midfielders.
Part Three assessed strikers.
And here in Part Four, we’re doing right-backs.
All of the players included in this series were analysed using smarterscout data. This system gives players a rating from zero to 99, relating to either how often they perform a given action compared with others at their position (such as link-up play volume, which measures how good they are contributing to their teams’ attacking build-up) or how effective they are at it, such as how well they progress the ball upfield.
(If you’re wondering why we will not have a Part Five covering centre-backs, head here...)
How does a right-back work in a Ten Hag side?
Noussair Mazraoui was Ten Hag’s preferred right-back across almost all of his four and a half years as Ajax coach. However, it is important to note that the Morocco international played differently in 2018-19 — Ten Hag’s first full season in charge and Mazraoui’s first as a regular starter for them — to how he performs today.
Mazraoui was more of an overlapping right-back in that 2018-19 team, drawing away defenders and giving extra space for right-winger Hakim Ziyech to cut inside and shoot. Then, when Ziyech moved to Chelsea in the summer of 2020, Mazraoui became more of an underlapping full-back to better accommodate Antony, who preferred to start attacks from a wider starting position.
His contribution towards his team’s chances (xG from shot creation) significantly improved when underlapping, as did his ability to both deliver and receive the ball in dangerous areas. Mazraoui finished last season with five goals and two assists in the Eredivisie — by far his best return in senior football.
Throughout his Ajax career, Mazraoui consistently played short, sharp passes to team-mates when on the ball (link-up play volume) and carefully looked after possession (ball retention ability). He was a talented ball carrier (carry and dribble volume) and rarely played longer passes down the right flank for his winger (progressive passing).
Mazraoui does not shirk his defensive duties either. While he first emerged as a full-back who primarily defended space and made interceptions, he gradually became more successful when tackling, marking his man and winning his one-v-one duels, both on the ground and in the air.
He was very much the modern full-back under Ten Hag, encouraged to get forward when possible, and only needing occasional reminders about tracking back.
If we use the 24-year-old, who has now joined Bayern Munich after letting his Ajax contract expire, as a scouting blueprint, then United should be looking for a player who is:
Able to win his one-v-one duels with opposition wingers
Able to defend space and protect the back post from crosses
A good on-ball creator, able to play short passes that can help in team build-up, as well as deliver crosses into the box
Intelligent enough to recognise if they need to offer an overlapping or underlapping run when their winger is in possession and trying to create
Athletic enough to get up and down the pitch to help with team-wide counter-attacks, as well as able to stop opposition ones
It’s a long list but, as Gareth Southgate might tell you, there are a lot of good right-backs in the game at the moment…
Do United have Ten Hag-style right-backs already?
The short answer is: “No, and that’s why you’re reading this article.”
The long answer is: “Maybe? Let’s have a conversation about Diogo Dalot first.”
This is the third time since the turn of the year that The Athletic has attempted to use statistical data to quantify Dalot. The previous two attempts left us scratching our heads and opting to wait for him to play more games, so increasing the sample size.
Now the 2021-22 season is complete, we can say: Dalot is an odd player, who is OK at everything you would want from a modern full-back without being exceptional at anything.
His smarterscout pizza chart for last season shows a player who is fairly well-rounded when in possession but is not particularly aggressive or successful in his defensive actions (defending intensity rating: 31 out of 99).
After eight successive starts in the Premier League and FA Cup across January and February, Dalot found himself supplanted first by Aaron Wan-Bissaka in the 4-2 away win over Leeds and then Victor Lindelof, the central defender who was used at right-back in the Champions League last-16 first leg away to Atletico Madrid three days later.
“To start with, we could do with him (Lindelof) in aerial duels, set pieces, free kicks for and against us,” said then-manager Ralf Rangnick about his decision to demote Dalot to the bench for such a pivotal game. “All three centre-halves were in good shape, but after seven minutes, we were 1-0 down. The plan was in the dustbin.”
It was a strange answer about a strange tactical choice, but it revealed a lot about the strangeness (and weaknesses) of Dalot.
Here is a player with just over 100 club appearances to his name in a four-year senior career, and who has featured at left-back, right-back, the two wing-back positions and as a winger. If Dalot had arrived at Old Trafford in Sir Alex Ferguson’s time as manager, he’d have likely become a useful squad player, capable of occasionally chipping in with a big performance when needed.
Now, looking at his future under Ten Hag, the glass-half-full option for the 23-year-old is for him to be viewed as a blank slate upon whom the new manager can imprint his ideas. The glass-half-empty option sees Dalot considered a jack of all trades but master of none who gets put on the bench.
Wan-Bissaka is a known quantity at this point — good at one-v-one defensive duels, but uncomfortable going forward and with little connection to the rest of his team. Like many of United’s defenders, he struggled last season, making fewer successful tackles per 90 minutes than ever before in his senior career (look at his ratings for defending intensity and defending impact).
Previously, Wan-Bissaka had a use in Manchester derbies, when he was asked to stop Raheem Sterling from dribbling into the box. He now finds those games difficult when having to defend against Phil Foden, who prefers to exchange passes with Joao Cancelo and play his way into the final third. As his United career has progressed, teams have also looked to take advantage of Wan-Bissaka’s weakness when defending the back post.
In April, The Athletic reported that Crystal Palace were considering a loan move for the right-back three years after he left Selhurst Park for United.
The 24-year-old’s highly-specialised skill set makes him unlikely to ever be a Ten Hag-style full-back.
Which right-backs should United take a look at? The dream purchase is Achraf Hakimi, right?
Achraf Hakimi did not have the best of debut seasons at Paris Saint-Germain in 2021-22 but remains one of the best attacking full-backs in the world (as Jack Grealish may remember).
Hakimi has frequently pitched in with goals and assists across his past three seasons. That those three seasons have seen him play for Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan and PSG under three different kinds of attack-minded managers demonstrates his versatility and endeavour.
Start Hakimi at right-back and he’s going to get forward and create.
While his first year in France was not brilliant, he still displayed his ability to deliver (look at those scores for xG from both shot creation and ball progression) and receive the ball (receptions in the opposition box rating: 97 out of 99) in dangerous areas. Hakimi is not hugely active in his defensive contributions but knows how to make important tackles, blocks and clearances when needed (disrupting opposition moves: 81 out of 99).
Mazraoui has not played for Morocco for the better part of two years because of a falling-out with coach Vahid Halilhodzic. That situation looks to be thawing ahead of the World Cup, but he will have quite the battle to displace Hakimi as the starting right-back/right wing-back.
Hakimi is the most expensive and most difficult to obtain choice on our list of potential United signings but comes with a good upside.
And it is worth remembering that Jadon Sancho’s best season as a right winger came when he was playing down the same flank as Hakimi for Dortmund.
Let’s talk about… Malo Gusto
Lyon fans would prefer not to talk about Malo Gusto too much, in case outsiders cotton on to how good he is. It is nice to see we are on the same page as our Tifo colleagues though…
The 19-year-old has quickly progressed into Lyon’s first team, having emerged as an attacking midfielder at first club AS Villefontaine and in Lyon’s academy sides. Head coach Peter Bosz quickly took a shine to Gusto, believing him to have the technical abilities and stamina to cover the entire right flank eventually.
Last season, Gusto played in a similar manner to Mazraoui, favouring short passes and sensible contributions to team build-up over longer passes down the line to his winger — compare his link-up play rating to his score for progressive passing. Gusto is better getting onto the ball in the final third than delivering into the box at the moment but the eye test hints his crossing will improve if he continues this promising career path.
Badger a Lyon fan long enough and they will admit that Gusto prefers to receive the ball to feet and dribble himself, rather than make an overlapping run for his winger.
He can also be naive when defending space, underestimating his proximity to opponents, which can lead to him getting caught in possession or losing his runner when tracking back. His pizza chart shows that while Gusto is active defensively and strong in his one-v-one duels (look at his ball recovery and defending intensity scores), he has some work to do on dealing with “pass-first” wide attackers such as Foden.
Barring injury, though, you are likely to hear a lot about Gusto in the seasons to come.
Have you heard about… Ridle Baku?
Ridle Baku played a significant number of games on the right of a 3-4-3 for Wolfsburg last season, so the 24-year-old’s pizza chart will be a little different to others in this article.
First things first: Wolfsburg had a terrible 2021-22, finishing bottom of their Champions League group and getting knocked out of the DFB Pokal — Germany’s FA Cup — by a fourth-tier side. Coach Mark van Bommel was sacked in October, Florian Kohfeldt took over and they finished 12th in the 18-team Bundesliga. Their highest scorer in the league was former Manchester City academy player Lukas Nmecha. He got eight goals.
Baku is the only player on this shortlist whose team last season had to do more defending than attacking.
Despite that, he showed himself to be an aggressive front-foot defender (defending intensity rating: 92 out of 99) who just about held his own in one-v-one duels and did a decent job of stopping opposition players from progressing down his flank (defending impact: 56/99).
Going forward, Baku has a knack for getting to the byline and delivering crosses, and he can play short passes into central midfield.
Wolfsburg were bad last season, but 12 months earlier Baku made the Bundesliga Team of the Year as they finished fourth.
He has many of the skills you want from a progressive attacking full-back and is perhaps the most affordable right-back here.
It’s time to talk about… Nordi Mukiele
Capable of playing at right-back, centre-back and left-back, Nordi Mukiele — another 24-year-old — ultimately played the majority of his games last season as a right winger in a 3-5-2.
He was rather good at it, too.
As one would expect from a player in the Red Bull stable of clubs, Mukiele is an aggressive presser of the ball, working hard to make tackles and disrupt the opposition’s passing options (take note of his scores for ball recoveries and defending intensity – that’s someone who makes a constant nuisance of himself). He’s also a good defender in the air, putting his 6ft 1in frame to good use (aerial duels quantity: 84 out of 99).
Going forward, Mukiele prefers to play one-twos with his central midfielders and strikers before running into the penalty area — look at his high scores for link-up play volume and receptions in the opposition box.
He’s not the most Ten Hag-style of full-back going forward but he has the positional discipline and ability to defend space that the new United manager craves.
Anyone else?
Run a search for right-backs similar to Mazraoui and Porto’s Joao Mario pops up.
The 22-year-old chipped in with two assists in 28 league appearances, 24 of them starts, last season as Porto won their 30th title and second in three years, despite selling Luis Diaz to Liverpool in January.
He is similar to Gusto in that he would rather receive the ball to his feet and dribble into the final third, rather than make an overlapping run beyond his winger and deliver crosses. He’s a good passer, preferring to play them inside rather than forward towards his winger, and can get the ball into dangerous areas too (xG from ball progression rating: 65 out of 99).
There are caveats concerning the amount of defending any Porto full-back actually has to do on a week-to-week basis in the Primeira Liga, but he makes tackles often (defending intensity: 82/99) and tends to win the ball back (defending impact: 80/99). Although as he’s 5ft 10in, an aerial duels quantity score of only 34 out of 99 is a little concerning.
The Portuguese league appears to have grown in popularity recently among top Premier League clubs with money to spend, so expect to hear more about Joao Mario in the future.
The Athletic opted for right-back over centre-back for the final instalment of this series as we sincerely believe an upgrade at this position would lead to more wholesale improvements in United’s squad.
Anthony Elanga’s talent for running in behind becomes more dangerous when there’s a full-back capable of hitting first-time passes to him; Donny van de Beek would relish the opportunity to attack the right-half space and exchange passes with an underlapping right-back; Sancho again becomes a more viable option on the right wing with an overlapping full-back behind him; everyone in United’s defence and attack would be better if the club can sign someone who knows how to defend crosses as well as deliver proper ones into the opposition penalty area.
Dalot has shown some promise, and is capable of doing several things that Wan-Bissaka cannot. Unfortunately, to date, he has only displayed some rather than all of the qualities a possession-based footballing side would expect of their full-back.
If United could find a player similar to Mazraoui, somebody who is good when defending but creative and decisive going forward, then it unlocks many more options for how Ten Hag can try to play next season.
https://theathletic.com/3385691/2022/07/02/manchester-united-transfer-right-back/
Shopping for Ten Hag: Part Four — a right-back for Manchester United
By Carl Anka and Mark Carey
Welcome to the conclusion of our Shopping For Erik Ten Hag series, in which we use statistical data to identify players who may suit the new Manchester United manager as he looks to strengthen their squad for the 2022-23 season.
Part One looked at defensive midfielders.
Part Two was on right-sided forwards/midfielders.
Part Three assessed strikers.
And here in Part Four, we’re doing right-backs.
All of the players included in this series were analysed using smarterscout data. This system gives players a rating from zero to 99, relating to either how often they perform a given action compared with others at their position (such as link-up play volume, which measures how good they are contributing to their teams’ attacking build-up) or how effective they are at it, such as how well they progress the ball upfield.
(If you’re wondering why we will not have a Part Five covering centre-backs, head here...)
How does a right-back work in a Ten Hag side?
Noussair Mazraoui was Ten Hag’s preferred right-back across almost all of his four and a half years as Ajax coach. However, it is important to note that the Morocco international played differently in 2018-19 — Ten Hag’s first full season in charge and Mazraoui’s first as a regular starter for them — to how he performs today.
Mazraoui was more of an overlapping right-back in that 2018-19 team, drawing away defenders and giving extra space for right-winger Hakim Ziyech to cut inside and shoot. Then, when Ziyech moved to Chelsea in the summer of 2020, Mazraoui became more of an underlapping full-back to better accommodate Antony, who preferred to start attacks from a wider starting position.
His contribution towards his team’s chances (xG from shot creation) significantly improved when underlapping, as did his ability to both deliver and receive the ball in dangerous areas. Mazraoui finished last season with five goals and two assists in the Eredivisie — by far his best return in senior football.
Throughout his Ajax career, Mazraoui consistently played short, sharp passes to team-mates when on the ball (link-up play volume) and carefully looked after possession (ball retention ability). He was a talented ball carrier (carry and dribble volume) and rarely played longer passes down the right flank for his winger (progressive passing).
Mazraoui does not shirk his defensive duties either. While he first emerged as a full-back who primarily defended space and made interceptions, he gradually became more successful when tackling, marking his man and winning his one-v-one duels, both on the ground and in the air.
He was very much the modern full-back under Ten Hag, encouraged to get forward when possible, and only needing occasional reminders about tracking back.
If we use the 24-year-old, who has now joined Bayern Munich after letting his Ajax contract expire, as a scouting blueprint, then United should be looking for a player who is:
Able to win his one-v-one duels with opposition wingers
Able to defend space and protect the back post from crosses
A good on-ball creator, able to play short passes that can help in team build-up, as well as deliver crosses into the box
Intelligent enough to recognise if they need to offer an overlapping or underlapping run when their winger is in possession and trying to create
Athletic enough to get up and down the pitch to help with team-wide counter-attacks, as well as able to stop opposition ones
It’s a long list but, as Gareth Southgate might tell you, there are a lot of good right-backs in the game at the moment…
Do United have Ten Hag-style right-backs already?
The short answer is: “No, and that’s why you’re reading this article.”
The long answer is: “Maybe? Let’s have a conversation about Diogo Dalot first.”
This is the third time since the turn of the year that The Athletic has attempted to use statistical data to quantify Dalot. The previous two attempts left us scratching our heads and opting to wait for him to play more games, so increasing the sample size.
Now the 2021-22 season is complete, we can say: Dalot is an odd player, who is OK at everything you would want from a modern full-back without being exceptional at anything.
His smarterscout pizza chart for last season shows a player who is fairly well-rounded when in possession but is not particularly aggressive or successful in his defensive actions (defending intensity rating: 31 out of 99).
After eight successive starts in the Premier League and FA Cup across January and February, Dalot found himself supplanted first by Aaron Wan-Bissaka in the 4-2 away win over Leeds and then Victor Lindelof, the central defender who was used at right-back in the Champions League last-16 first leg away to Atletico Madrid three days later.
“To start with, we could do with him (Lindelof) in aerial duels, set pieces, free kicks for and against us,” said then-manager Ralf Rangnick about his decision to demote Dalot to the bench for such a pivotal game. “All three centre-halves were in good shape, but after seven minutes, we were 1-0 down. The plan was in the dustbin.”
It was a strange answer about a strange tactical choice, but it revealed a lot about the strangeness (and weaknesses) of Dalot.
Here is a player with just over 100 club appearances to his name in a four-year senior career, and who has featured at left-back, right-back, the two wing-back positions and as a winger. If Dalot had arrived at Old Trafford in Sir Alex Ferguson’s time as manager, he’d have likely become a useful squad player, capable of occasionally chipping in with a big performance when needed.
Now, looking at his future under Ten Hag, the glass-half-full option for the 23-year-old is for him to be viewed as a blank slate upon whom the new manager can imprint his ideas. The glass-half-empty option sees Dalot considered a jack of all trades but master of none who gets put on the bench.
Wan-Bissaka is a known quantity at this point — good at one-v-one defensive duels, but uncomfortable going forward and with little connection to the rest of his team. Like many of United’s defenders, he struggled last season, making fewer successful tackles per 90 minutes than ever before in his senior career (look at his ratings for defending intensity and defending impact).
Previously, Wan-Bissaka had a use in Manchester derbies, when he was asked to stop Raheem Sterling from dribbling into the box. He now finds those games difficult when having to defend against Phil Foden, who prefers to exchange passes with Joao Cancelo and play his way into the final third. As his United career has progressed, teams have also looked to take advantage of Wan-Bissaka’s weakness when defending the back post.
In April, The Athletic reported that Crystal Palace were considering a loan move for the right-back three years after he left Selhurst Park for United.
The 24-year-old’s highly-specialised skill set makes him unlikely to ever be a Ten Hag-style full-back.
Which right-backs should United take a look at? The dream purchase is Achraf Hakimi, right?
Achraf Hakimi did not have the best of debut seasons at Paris Saint-Germain in 2021-22 but remains one of the best attacking full-backs in the world (as Jack Grealish may remember).
Hakimi has frequently pitched in with goals and assists across his past three seasons. That those three seasons have seen him play for Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan and PSG under three different kinds of attack-minded managers demonstrates his versatility and endeavour.
Start Hakimi at right-back and he’s going to get forward and create.
While his first year in France was not brilliant, he still displayed his ability to deliver (look at those scores for xG from both shot creation and ball progression) and receive the ball (receptions in the opposition box rating: 97 out of 99) in dangerous areas. Hakimi is not hugely active in his defensive contributions but knows how to make important tackles, blocks and clearances when needed (disrupting opposition moves: 81 out of 99).
Mazraoui has not played for Morocco for the better part of two years because of a falling-out with coach Vahid Halilhodzic. That situation looks to be thawing ahead of the World Cup, but he will have quite the battle to displace Hakimi as the starting right-back/right wing-back.
Hakimi is the most expensive and most difficult to obtain choice on our list of potential United signings but comes with a good upside.
And it is worth remembering that Jadon Sancho’s best season as a right winger came when he was playing down the same flank as Hakimi for Dortmund.
Let’s talk about… Malo Gusto
Lyon fans would prefer not to talk about Malo Gusto too much, in case outsiders cotton on to how good he is. It is nice to see we are on the same page as our Tifo colleagues though…
The 19-year-old has quickly progressed into Lyon’s first team, having emerged as an attacking midfielder at first club AS Villefontaine and in Lyon’s academy sides. Head coach Peter Bosz quickly took a shine to Gusto, believing him to have the technical abilities and stamina to cover the entire right flank eventually.
Last season, Gusto played in a similar manner to Mazraoui, favouring short passes and sensible contributions to team build-up over longer passes down the line to his winger — compare his link-up play rating to his score for progressive passing. Gusto is better getting onto the ball in the final third than delivering into the box at the moment but the eye test hints his crossing will improve if he continues this promising career path.
Badger a Lyon fan long enough and they will admit that Gusto prefers to receive the ball to feet and dribble himself, rather than make an overlapping run for his winger.
He can also be naive when defending space, underestimating his proximity to opponents, which can lead to him getting caught in possession or losing his runner when tracking back. His pizza chart shows that while Gusto is active defensively and strong in his one-v-one duels (look at his ball recovery and defending intensity scores), he has some work to do on dealing with “pass-first” wide attackers such as Foden.
Barring injury, though, you are likely to hear a lot about Gusto in the seasons to come.
Have you heard about… Ridle Baku?
Ridle Baku played a significant number of games on the right of a 3-4-3 for Wolfsburg last season, so the 24-year-old’s pizza chart will be a little different to others in this article.
First things first: Wolfsburg had a terrible 2021-22, finishing bottom of their Champions League group and getting knocked out of the DFB Pokal — Germany’s FA Cup — by a fourth-tier side. Coach Mark van Bommel was sacked in October, Florian Kohfeldt took over and they finished 12th in the 18-team Bundesliga. Their highest scorer in the league was former Manchester City academy player Lukas Nmecha. He got eight goals.
Baku is the only player on this shortlist whose team last season had to do more defending than attacking.
Despite that, he showed himself to be an aggressive front-foot defender (defending intensity rating: 92 out of 99) who just about held his own in one-v-one duels and did a decent job of stopping opposition players from progressing down his flank (defending impact: 56/99).
Going forward, Baku has a knack for getting to the byline and delivering crosses, and he can play short passes into central midfield.
Wolfsburg were bad last season, but 12 months earlier Baku made the Bundesliga Team of the Year as they finished fourth.
He has many of the skills you want from a progressive attacking full-back and is perhaps the most affordable right-back here.
It’s time to talk about… Nordi Mukiele
Capable of playing at right-back, centre-back and left-back, Nordi Mukiele — another 24-year-old — ultimately played the majority of his games last season as a right winger in a 3-5-2.
He was rather good at it, too.
As one would expect from a player in the Red Bull stable of clubs, Mukiele is an aggressive presser of the ball, working hard to make tackles and disrupt the opposition’s passing options (take note of his scores for ball recoveries and defending intensity – that’s someone who makes a constant nuisance of himself). He’s also a good defender in the air, putting his 6ft 1in frame to good use (aerial duels quantity: 84 out of 99).
Going forward, Mukiele prefers to play one-twos with his central midfielders and strikers before running into the penalty area — look at his high scores for link-up play volume and receptions in the opposition box.
He’s not the most Ten Hag-style of full-back going forward but he has the positional discipline and ability to defend space that the new United manager craves.
Anyone else?
Run a search for right-backs similar to Mazraoui and Porto’s Joao Mario pops up.
The 22-year-old chipped in with two assists in 28 league appearances, 24 of them starts, last season as Porto won their 30th title and second in three years, despite selling Luis Diaz to Liverpool in January.
He is similar to Gusto in that he would rather receive the ball to his feet and dribble into the final third, rather than make an overlapping run beyond his winger and deliver crosses. He’s a good passer, preferring to play them inside rather than forward towards his winger, and can get the ball into dangerous areas too (xG from ball progression rating: 65 out of 99).
There are caveats concerning the amount of defending any Porto full-back actually has to do on a week-to-week basis in the Primeira Liga, but he makes tackles often (defending intensity: 82/99) and tends to win the ball back (defending impact: 80/99). Although as he’s 5ft 10in, an aerial duels quantity score of only 34 out of 99 is a little concerning.
The Portuguese league appears to have grown in popularity recently among top Premier League clubs with money to spend, so expect to hear more about Joao Mario in the future.
The Athletic opted for right-back over centre-back for the final instalment of this series as we sincerely believe an upgrade at this position would lead to more wholesale improvements in United’s squad.
Anthony Elanga’s talent for running in behind becomes more dangerous when there’s a full-back capable of hitting first-time passes to him; Donny van de Beek would relish the opportunity to attack the right-half space and exchange passes with an underlapping right-back; Sancho again becomes a more viable option on the right wing with an overlapping full-back behind him; everyone in United’s defence and attack would be better if the club can sign someone who knows how to defend crosses as well as deliver proper ones into the opposition penalty area.
Dalot has shown some promise, and is capable of doing several things that Wan-Bissaka cannot. Unfortunately, to date, he has only displayed some rather than all of the qualities a possession-based footballing side would expect of their full-back.
If United could find a player similar to Mazraoui, somebody who is good when defending but creative and decisive going forward, then it unlocks many more options for how Ten Hag can try to play next season.
https://theathletic.com/3385691/2022/07/02/manchester-united-transfer-right-back/
