What we’re hearing about the Golden State Warriors’ free-agency plans

A group of the Warriors’ lead front office decision-makers, including Bob Myers, Kirk Lacob, Mike Dunleavy and Larry Harris, will set up shop in Los Angeles later this week. That’s where so much of the NBA’s free-agency business is settled.

The Warriors aren’t expected to dip into high-profile waters. Their big-ticket core is cemented. But, if you’re outlining the various personnel decisions that could shape the 2023 title chase, the Warriors’ week is among the most important. They are trying to regather the second layer of a championship core. Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica — sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth in playoff minutes for the Warriors — are all unrestricted free agents.

The timing is still being finalized, but the Warriors’ front office contingent is expected to meet with Looney’s representatives — his agent is Todd Ramasar — in the early portion of free agency, which begins at 3 p.m. (PT) Thursday. There is no bigger or more urgent situation than Looney’s. He is the top priority.

These weren’t the anticipated circumstances. The Warriors drafted James Wiseman second overall 19 months ago. He will make $9.6 million next season. The logical succession plan would’ve already had him seizing that starting center spot from Looney long ago, leaving Looney expendable at anything beyond a veteran minimum.

But actuality has differed from the forecast. Wiseman is still creeping back from a meniscus injury that’s limited him to 39 total games in two seasons. His third season essentially profiles as another rookie year. It’s both unwise from a competitive standpoint and unfair to Wiseman to gift him the starting spot. He needs a veteran to develop behind.

Looney has grown into the ideal veteran. He solved his health issues to morph into one of the league’s most durable players a season ago, appearing in all 104 games. In the regular season, he held together a thin center spot without Wiseman at all and Draymond Green for half the season. In the playoffs, he elevated his game to a place few believed he’d reach, becoming the league leader in offensive rebounds, anchoring the interior and converting 66 percent of his shots.

The Warriors were at their lowest in the playoffs after a 39-point Game 5 beatdown in Memphis. After it, Green and Steph Curry told the coaching staff they wanted Looney back in the starting lineup. He had 22 rebounds to close out the Grizzlies. Against the Celtics, in the Game 4 road win that swung the series, coach Steve Kerr boldly benched the struggling Green. It only worked because he had the evolving Looney at his disposal, having proved he could thrive as the lone big in certain lineup combinations.

“We’re all rooting for him personally to get a really good contract,” Kerr said. “Hopefully it’s from us.”

Steve Kerr on Kevon Looney: “We’re all rooting for him personally to get a really good contract. Hopefully it’s from us.” pic.twitter.com/M8YCvKpzdT

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) June 22, 2022

This is Looney’s biggest leverage point. His coach and veteran teammates all understand and value what his availability, skill set and institutional knowledge mean in the pursuit of another title. Without him this past season, they don’t have a fourth ring. To capture a fifth, his presence is vital when compared to the alternative — the unknown of Wiseman and whatever veteran big might be available to replace him on the minimum. Andre Drummond or JaVale McGee anyone?

But the Warriors don’t intend to bid against themselves, particularly considering the tax penalties. They are now flying deep enough into the repeater waters that every extra dollar spent on salary will be multiplied by around seven. So an $8 million salary, for example, would equal somewhere around a $50 million payment. Every dollar they can shave down in negotiations is an exponential financial win.

But Looney and his representatives have no reason to care about a spiking tax bill. None of that penalty money goes to him. Considering his importance, you could make an easy case that he was underpaid ($5.1 million) a season ago and, in the past, has been discarded in the team’s plans. They declined his fourth-year option on his rookie deal and drafted his replacement in November 2020. He continues to play himself back into the picture.

So there’s no reason for Looney not to search out the best offer on the market, regardless of the franchise. That’s the expectation as the free agency buzzer nears. Looney, for a fair contract, would consider leaving the Warriors if the financial commitment isn’t reciprocated, though Marc Stein has reported that rival teams are becoming pessimistic about their chance to ultimately pry him away.

“Thankfully I hope that our players will give us a chance to respond to an offer,” Myers said. “They don’t have to. They don’t owe it to us. But that’s what you get if you win and you create a good environment. You might get a chance to match something.”

Among the Warriors’ other unrestricted free agents, Payton profiles as the second most important. He provides a level of defensive disruption and ball pressure that is difficult to duplicate on the wing. Payton led the NBA in steals per 36 minutes this season and changed the court chemistry of the NBA Finals when he returned from a broken elbow in Game 2, proving that his style translates to winning on the biggest stage.

The Warriors are considered to be the favorites to retain Payton’s services. It isn’t a secret how much he loves the Warriors’ environment, the Bay Area and his fit as a defensive pest and off-ball slasher in a Curry-fueled environment. But the favorite label — as in the situation regarding Looney — is far from a guarantee, still a few days from the starting bell.

Payton is expected to command interest on the open market. The Mavericks are considered among the most serious suitors. Dallas still has the Jalen Brunson unrestricted free agency to resolve. His decision could have a domino effect on the market. So could Looney’s eventual price tag, as it relates to the Warriors and their willingness to keep shoveling money onto a skyrocketing tax bill.

“I’ll ask Joe what he would authorize, but there is a limit,” Myers said. “It’s not limitless. I would like it to be limitless, but trust me, it’s not. You’ve got to have some constraints on a salary. … We’ve blown through kind of these budget thresholds before. It doesn’t mean we’ll do it again. It’s pretty case specific.”

The Warriors also intend to pursue reunions with Porter and Bjelica. Porter was particularly impactful at various moments of the title run. The Warriors were a plus-109 in his 371 minutes. His floor spacing, sturdier than expected rebounding and interior presence unlocked several lineup combinations, including the starting group Kerr deployed to close out the Celtics.

If the price tag for Porter on the open market gets too high, he is considered obtainable for outside suitors. The Warriors enter free agency with a taxpayer mid-level tool that they declined to use last offseason. It’s unlikely, again, that they use it to chase somebody on the outside, but could be utilized to up an offer to bring back Porter or Bjelica.

Bjelica spent the playoffs on the fringe of the rotation, but did perform when called upon. He was on a veteran minimum last season and, if he chooses to return to the Warriors, it’d likely be on another vet minimum deal.

As of Monday morning, the Warriors had still yet to be informed whether Andre Iguodala planned to retire or not. After completion of an 18th NBA season that included a fourth title, the Warriors are giving Iguodala the time and space to decide on his future, but have let it be known publicly they’d like to have him back because of the presence he provides in the building.

“He’s way too smart to sit next to me and come to all our coaches’ meetings and do this,” Kerr said of the idea of Iguodala joining the coaching staff. “He was a coach this year in the locker room for our guys. I would love to have him back on the roster if it works out — and I know Bob feels the same way — and things have to fall into place.”

The Warriors don’t know how or when Iguodala will inform them. He may just announce it publicly on his podcast at some point. But they are reconfiguring their roster in the coming days and, at some point, will need a definitive answer.

Patrick Baldwin Jr. is a first-round pick, so he will take up a roster spot. Ryan Rollins, at this point, is a favorite to join him as a rookie taking up one of the 15-man slots.

The Warriors paid $2 million to trade up and snag Rollins, but can make that money back if they roster him, since the minimum for second-round rookies are the lowest possible salaries in the league. It’s what they did with Eric Paschall and Alen Smailagic a few seasons ago to help duck under the hard cap.

Rollins isn’t yet a guarantee. When the Warriors drafted Rollins, both sides were aware he could be an option on a two-way contract, depending on how the rest of the Warriors roster was built out over the next few weeks.

Rollins’ presence does make it less likely that the Warriors will add an extra backup point guard. The Warriors pursued Patty Mills last summer and kicked the tires on Goran Dragic, believing that was a hole within their roster construction. But Jordan Poole’s emergence and the drafting of Rollins lessens that need.

Also of note: Gui Santos, the Brazilian wing who the Warriors selected 55th overall, is expected to be stashed outside of the roster next season. It’s still to be determined which league Santos might play. One of the options being considered is Santa Cruz, getting him into the system.

Lester Quinones, a 6-foot-5 guard out of Memphis, has committed to one of the Warriors’ two available two-way contracts. The favorite for the second two-way contract is Quinndary Weatherspoon, who showed flashes in his brief appearances for the Warriors a season ago. His contract situation still needs to be settled in the weeks ahead, though.

If the Warriors are able to retain Looney, which remains the expectation heading into Thursday, they aren’t currently planning to add an extra traditional center beyond him, leaving the rotational door cracked again for Wiseman.

Wiseman has two seasons and $21 million left on his rookie deal. The Warriors need to find out as much as possible as quickly as possible to make clearer decisions on his future. He needs all the playing time he can get to develop. They are committed to providing him plenty. That means not blocking his path with an extra veteran.

Speaking of Wiseman, this is a big week in his climb back to health. The Warriors’ summer-league team begins practice on Tuesday. Wiseman has just begun to ease back into full-speed action and the contact practices this week will determine when he may be cleared for a summer-league debut.

It appears unlikely that Wiseman will play in either of the Chase Center games this upcoming weekend. The current trend line would point more toward an appearance at some point during the Las Vegas portion of the schedule. But that’ll be determined in the days ahead.

Jonathan Kuminga also is expected to appear at some point in summer league, but he just traveled to Congo and the Warriors can’t determine when exactly he will debut until they get him back in the facility and create the preferred summer plan.

There is a strong likelihood the Warriors don’t commit to a 15th guaranteed contract in free agency. They didn’t last summer, leaving that roster spot open for a competition between Avery Bradley, Payton and a few others, eventually won by Payton.

Leaving flexibility in that slot also allows the Warriors a chance to potentially keep it vacant, saving tax money. They’ve done it in the past and Myers has admitted the initial plan this past season was to enter with 14 players until Payton forced their hand.

With at least one and probably two rookies entering the roster and the possibility of leaving that 15th slot open, a few current players are on their way out. Iguodala’s future still needs to be settled, as do the free agencies of Looney, Payton, Porter and Bjelica. But of the holdovers, the roster spots of Juan Toscano-Anderson and Damion Lee appear the most vulnerable.

Toscano-Anderson and Lee are favorites in the locker room and highly respected throughout the organization and region. Both have had big regular-season moments during their time with the Warriors and, if free agency breaks in certain ways, could return. But both found themselves buried in the playoff rotation, as compared to the Warriors’ other unrestricted free agents, and have Moses Moody and Kuminga ready to leap them in the pecking order next season.

Don’t expect immediate news on any Poole or Andrew Wiggins extensions. Rookies extensions like Poole’s often don’t get revved up until near the deadline in October and the Warriors have plenty of time later in the summer to negotiate with Wiggins.

“Those guys are not unrestricted free agents,” Myers said. “So we don’t need to do that on July 1, 2, 3, 4. We’re a long way from figuring out what Andrew wants and what his agent wants, but I do know what we want. We want to keep him and we’re going to make every effort to keep both those guys.”