NBA trade grades: Who wins the three-team trade sending Bryn Forbes to the Nuggets?
What was the motivation for the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs to make the three-team trade reported Tuesday by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski?
The move includes four players, none of whom is a starter and two of whom are currently sidelined by injuries (Denver's Bol Bol and P.J. Dozier, both headed to the Celtics). Naturally, much of the rationale for this deal is financial. By taking back two players on minimum contracts, Boston moves a step closer to avoiding the luxury tax this season.
From the Nuggets' perspective, this is a win-now move. Because of Denver's multiple long-term injuries, using two roster spots on players who are sidelined was untenable. The Nuggets not only get a potential contributor in Bryn Forbes, but they also free up a spot to eventually convert one of their two-way contracts, allowing either Markus Howard or Davon Reed to be eligible for the playoffs.
Let's break down the implications for all three teams, including what the Spurs get out of adding salary by taking back the highest-paid player in the deal, and hand out grades.
Celtics get: P.J. Dozier, Bol Bol
Nuggets get: Bryn Forbes
Spurs get: Juancho Hernangomez, 2028 second-round pick (via Denver; top-33 protected), $2.35 million cash
Denver Nuggets: A-
The Nuggets' attempt to move Bol for value to the Pistons earlier this month backfired when he failed his physical in Detroit. Not only did that prevent the Nuggets from getting a second-round pick (albeit a late one) and a player at a position of need (wing Rodney McGruder) in return, it led to Bol opting to undergo right foot surgery on Tuesday.
Bol's surgery made him the fifth Denver player sidelined long term, joining Dozier (ACL tear), starters Jamal Murray (working his way back from a 2021 ACL tear) and Michael Porter Jr. (back surgery) and reserve forward Vlatko Cancar (surgery on a fifth metatarsal fracture in his right foot). Even for a team as deep as the Nuggets, that cascade of injuries has been difficult to overcome.
Denver could've muddled through, adding players on hardship contracts, but Forbes is surely a better option than any available in free agency now. He is a year removed from averaging 19 minutes per game off the bench for the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks and gives the Nuggets a shooting dimension they lack with his 41% career mark from 3-point range.
Forbes looks like a short-term upgrade on rookie Bones Hyland, a promising long-term prospect who isn't yet reliable for efficient scoring. Both Hyland and veteran Austin Rivers, Denver's primary reserve wings, have posted true shooting percentages in the low .500s. By contrast, Forbes' .572 true shooting percentage (right near his career mark of .574) is solidly better than league average.
Come playoff time, assuming the Nuggets can maintain a top-six seed or advance through the play-in tournament, Forbes' small stature for an off-ball guard (6-foot-2) will make it difficult for him to be a key part of their rotation. (His minutes dwindled as Milwaukee's playoff run went on, and Forbes saw just 10 total minutes of action after Game 1 of the NBA Finals.) By that point, however, Denver should have Murray back in the lineup, giving coach Michael Malone more options in the backcourt.
Beyond adding Forbes, the Nuggets clear a roster spot, a proposition that might've cost them the 2028 second-round pick they sent to San Antonio in the deal on its own. Denver could fill that spot now by converting the two-way contract of either Reed (who got rotation minutes on a series of hardship contracts) or occasional 2021 playoff contributor Howard and still avoid paying the luxury tax, unless it reaches the NBA Finals and pays out multiple player incentives, per my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks.
Boston Celtics: B+
A trade involving Hernangomez was a near certainty leading up to the deadline. The veteran forward, making $6.9 million this season including likely incentives in his contract, had played just 96 minutes so far, and his salary helped push the Celtics into the luxury tax.
Boston is still there, for the moment. Per Marks, Boston's team salary is $2.8 million above the luxury tax line despite a nearly identical amount of savings from this trade. However, that includes $1.9 million in likely incentives that Jaylen Brown might not earn. He has to play 65 games and make the All-Star team to hit his likely bonuses, meaning he can miss no more than three games the remainder of the season.
Assuming Brown is not chosen an All-Star, the Celtics can get comfortably out of the tax by moving a minimum-salary player (Bol, Dozier or backup center Bruno Fernando) before the deadline. Cash or the kind of distant second-round pick the Nuggets sent San Antonio should be enough to accomplish that, whereas offloading Hernangomez's entire salary might have been more costly.
Wojnarowski reported Tuesday night that Boston doesn't currently plan to waive either Bol or Dozier, though both are in the last year of their contracts. The voided trade to the Pistons indicated Bol still had some value around the league when healthy. Bol will be a restricted free agent, and his rights might be worth keeping. Dozier would have less value as an unrestricted free agent whose injury is likely to sideline him to start the 2022-23 season.
For the time being, the Celtics are healthy enough that they can afford to let Bol and Dozier rehab without their empty roster spots being the same kind of issue as in Denver.
As a small bonus, Boston can use part of the trade exception from the Kemba Walker deal to take back the salaries of Bol and Dozier, allowing the Celtics to create a trade exception for the value of Hernangomez's salary that will outlast their current three exceptions -- all of which expire this summer.
Forbes' second go-round with the Spurs, after he played his first four seasons in San Antonio as an undrafted free agent, didn't go nearly as well. Forbes' 16.9 minutes per game were his lowest since his rookie campaign. With Derrick White playing shooting guard nearly full time this season and the younger Lonnie Walker IV in the mix, there wasn't much of a role for Forbes.
This deal looks like a win-win for Forbes and the Spurs, sending him to a contending team and giving them a modest draft pick in return as well as potentially creating more playing time for rookie Joshua Primo. Because San Antonio is miles below the tax line, the Spurs are only on the hook for the $1 million-plus salary difference between Forbes and Hernangomez the rest of the season. The cash they received more than covers it.
If the Spurs aren't interested in taking a look at Hernangomez, whose 2022-23 salary is non-guaranteed, they could waive him before the deadline and use the open roster spot to make additional deals taking back players making the minimum salary like Dozier in return for cash or late second-round picks.
NBA trade grades: Who wins the three-team trade sending Bryn Forbes to the Nuggets?
What was the motivation for the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs to make the three-team trade reported Tuesday by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski?
The move includes four players, none of whom is a starter and two of whom are currently sidelined by injuries (Denver's Bol Bol and P.J. Dozier, both headed to the Celtics). Naturally, much of the rationale for this deal is financial. By taking back two players on minimum contracts, Boston moves a step closer to avoiding the luxury tax this season.
From the Nuggets' perspective, this is a win-now move. Because of Denver's multiple long-term injuries, using two roster spots on players who are sidelined was untenable. The Nuggets not only get a potential contributor in Bryn Forbes, but they also free up a spot to eventually convert one of their two-way contracts, allowing either Markus Howard or Davon Reed to be eligible for the playoffs.
Let's break down the implications for all three teams, including what the Spurs get out of adding salary by taking back the highest-paid player in the deal, and hand out grades.
Celtics get: P.J. Dozier, Bol Bol
Nuggets get: Bryn Forbes
Spurs get: Juancho Hernangomez, 2028 second-round pick (via Denver; top-33 protected), $2.35 million cash
Denver Nuggets: A-
The Nuggets' attempt to move Bol for value to the Pistons earlier this month backfired when he failed his physical in Detroit. Not only did that prevent the Nuggets from getting a second-round pick (albeit a late one) and a player at a position of need (wing Rodney McGruder) in return, it led to Bol opting to undergo right foot surgery on Tuesday.
Bol's surgery made him the fifth Denver player sidelined long term, joining Dozier (ACL tear), starters Jamal Murray (working his way back from a 2021 ACL tear) and Michael Porter Jr. (back surgery) and reserve forward Vlatko Cancar (surgery on a fifth metatarsal fracture in his right foot). Even for a team as deep as the Nuggets, that cascade of injuries has been difficult to overcome.
Denver could've muddled through, adding players on hardship contracts, but Forbes is surely a better option than any available in free agency now. He is a year removed from averaging 19 minutes per game off the bench for the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks and gives the Nuggets a shooting dimension they lack with his 41% career mark from 3-point range.
Forbes looks like a short-term upgrade on rookie Bones Hyland, a promising long-term prospect who isn't yet reliable for efficient scoring. Both Hyland and veteran Austin Rivers, Denver's primary reserve wings, have posted true shooting percentages in the low .500s. By contrast, Forbes' .572 true shooting percentage (right near his career mark of .574) is solidly better than league average.
Come playoff time, assuming the Nuggets can maintain a top-six seed or advance through the play-in tournament, Forbes' small stature for an off-ball guard (6-foot-2) will make it difficult for him to be a key part of their rotation. (His minutes dwindled as Milwaukee's playoff run went on, and Forbes saw just 10 total minutes of action after Game 1 of the NBA Finals.) By that point, however, Denver should have Murray back in the lineup, giving coach Michael Malone more options in the backcourt.
Beyond adding Forbes, the Nuggets clear a roster spot, a proposition that might've cost them the 2028 second-round pick they sent to San Antonio in the deal on its own. Denver could fill that spot now by converting the two-way contract of either Reed (who got rotation minutes on a series of hardship contracts) or occasional 2021 playoff contributor Howard and still avoid paying the luxury tax, unless it reaches the NBA Finals and pays out multiple player incentives, per my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks.
Boston Celtics: B+
A trade involving Hernangomez was a near certainty leading up to the deadline. The veteran forward, making $6.9 million this season including likely incentives in his contract, had played just 96 minutes so far, and his salary helped push the Celtics into the luxury tax.
Boston is still there, for the moment. Per Marks, Boston's team salary is $2.8 million above the luxury tax line despite a nearly identical amount of savings from this trade. However, that includes $1.9 million in likely incentives that Jaylen Brown might not earn. He has to play 65 games and make the All-Star team to hit his likely bonuses, meaning he can miss no more than three games the remainder of the season.
Assuming Brown is not chosen an All-Star, the Celtics can get comfortably out of the tax by moving a minimum-salary player (Bol, Dozier or backup center Bruno Fernando) before the deadline. Cash or the kind of distant second-round pick the Nuggets sent San Antonio should be enough to accomplish that, whereas offloading Hernangomez's entire salary might have been more costly.
Wojnarowski reported Tuesday night that Boston doesn't currently plan to waive either Bol or Dozier, though both are in the last year of their contracts. The voided trade to the Pistons indicated Bol still had some value around the league when healthy. Bol will be a restricted free agent, and his rights might be worth keeping. Dozier would have less value as an unrestricted free agent whose injury is likely to sideline him to start the 2022-23 season.
For the time being, the Celtics are healthy enough that they can afford to let Bol and Dozier rehab without their empty roster spots being the same kind of issue as in Denver.
As a small bonus, Boston can use part of the trade exception from the Kemba Walker deal to take back the salaries of Bol and Dozier, allowing the Celtics to create a trade exception for the value of Hernangomez's salary that will outlast their current three exceptions -- all of which expire this summer.
Forbes' second go-round with the Spurs, after he played his first four seasons in San Antonio as an undrafted free agent, didn't go nearly as well. Forbes' 16.9 minutes per game were his lowest since his rookie campaign. With Derrick White playing shooting guard nearly full time this season and the younger Lonnie Walker IV in the mix, there wasn't much of a role for Forbes.
This deal looks like a win-win for Forbes and the Spurs, sending him to a contending team and giving them a modest draft pick in return as well as potentially creating more playing time for rookie Joshua Primo. Because San Antonio is miles below the tax line, the Spurs are only on the hook for the $1 million-plus salary difference between Forbes and Hernangomez the rest of the season. The cash they received more than covers it.
If the Spurs aren't interested in taking a look at Hernangomez, whose 2022-23 salary is non-guaranteed, they could waive him before the deadline and use the open roster spot to make additional deals taking back players making the minimum salary like Dozier in return for cash or late second-round picks.
