The Knicks’ Starters Can’t Keep Getting Outplayed by the Bench
尼克斯的首发不能总是被板凳队打败。
New York’s starting lineup is somehow both the most-used and second-least-successful in the NBA. Meanwhile, a reserve unit highlighted by the likes of Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley continues to thrive.
纽约的首发阵容从某种程度上来说是在NBA中使用频率最广的,也是第二不成功的。与此同时,以德里克-罗斯和伊曼纽尔-奎克利为代表的替补阵容正在发光发亮。
After a red-hot 5-1 start that threatened to make “Bing Bong” the new motto of New York City, the Knicks have more or less settled into the team we expected them to be heading into the season. They’re better on offense after adding Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, tied for ninth in the NBA in points scored per possession thanks to a newfound commitment to hoisting 3-pointers; 39.9 percent of their shots have come from beyond the arc, up from 32 percent last season. They’ve dipped down to 17th in defensive efficiency, though, due partly to the new backcourt’s inability to match the on-ball effectiveness of ex-starters Reggie Bullock and Elfrid Payton.
在经历了一个火热的五胜一负的开局之后,纽约尼克斯队或多或少的成为了那一支以我们希望的方式进入新赛季的球队。在肯巴-沃克和埃文-富尼耶的加入之后,他们的进攻变得比以前更好了,这多亏了他们在赛季前对提高三分数的承诺,现在他们每回合并列NBA第九,其中有39.9%的投篮来自于三分线外,高于上赛季的32%。不过,他们的防守效率已经下降到了第17位,部分原因是新后场的控球效率无法与前先发雷吉-布洛克和埃尔弗里德-佩顿相媲美。
That simultaneous rise and fall has Tom Thibodeau’s team looking like the photo negative of last year’s squad, which rode an elite defense and a shocking All-NBA turn from Julius Randle to the East’s no. 4 seed. The Knicks enter Tuesday’s meeting with the LeBron James–less Lakers in ninth place at 9-8, with a winning percentage and efficiency differential suggesting they’re somewhere between a 43- and 46-win team—a little above average, but not a real contender. Which, again, seems about right, given both the quality of the previous roster and the moves they made this summer.
这支球队的同时起起落落让汤姆-锡伯杜的球队看起来就像去年那支球队的负面照片,这支球队拥有精英式的防守,同时令人震惊的让朱利叶斯-兰德尔变成了东部的第四号种子。尼克斯在经历了周二与勒布朗-詹姆斯缺席湖人队的比赛后以9胜8负的战绩排名东部第九,他们的胜率和效率差异表明他们是一支在43胜到46胜之间的球队——略高于平均水平,但并不是有力的竞争者。考虑到之前的阵容质量和他们在这个夏天所做的交易,这一次,他们好像是正确的。
The devil’s in the details, though, and zooming in on those reveals a team that has cratered since that hot start. After a tough road loss to the evidently-for-real Bulls on Sunday, New York has lost seven of its last 11 games, with a bottom-10 offense in November. Their last four Ws have come against the Bucks without Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez (and with Jrue Holiday on a minutes restriction); the 76ers without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Matisse Thybulle; the Pacers, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by shooting 2-for-20 in the fourth quarter; and the league-worst Rockets, whom the Knicks barely squeaked past with a 17-4 fourth-quarter run. The Magic are 2-13 against the rest of the NBA; they are 2-1 against the Knicks.
然而,魔鬼在于细节,放大这些细节后,就会发现这支球队在火热的开局后就陷入了困境。在周日输给公牛队后,纽约在过去的11场比赛中输了7场,在11月的进攻也排到了倒数后十位。他们的最近四场比赛都是在对阵没有克里斯-米德尔顿和布鲁克-洛佩斯的雄鹿队(而且朱-霍勒迪的上场时间也有限制);对阵没有乔尔-恩比德,托拜厄斯-哈里斯和马蒂斯-赛布尔的76人队;步行者队在第四节20投2中,从胜利的边缘抓住了败局;还有联盟最差的火箭,尼克斯在第四节以17-4的比分勉强击败了火箭。魔术队对阵联盟其他球队的时候是2胜13负,但对阵尼克斯时为2胜1负。
There hasn’t been much joy at Madison Square Garden of late, with the Knicks repeatedly getting themselves stuck in the mud. Watching them calls to mind the old adage: If you want to get out of the hole, first you need to put down the shovel. In New York’s case, that means finding a way to shake up a starting five—Walker and Fournier in the backcourt, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett at forward, Mitchell Robinson in the middle—that has been outscored by a staggering 87 points in 270 minutes, making it both the most frequently used and second-least-successful lineup in the entire NBA.
最近在麦迪逊广场花园,尼克斯多次陷入泥沼,这让我想起了一句老话:如果你想从困境中出来,你需要放下你的铲子。就纽约现在的情况来看,他们需要找到一种方法来改变他们的首发五虎——沃克和富尼耶作为后场,朱利叶斯-兰德尔和RJ-巴雷特作为前锋,米切尔-罗宾逊顶到中锋的位置上——在270分钟的比赛中,尼克斯队能被超过惊人的87分,这使得它成为全NBA使用频率最高,同时也是第二不成功的阵容。
The bulk of the damage has come on defense: The Knicks’ new-look starting lineup is allowing 119.9 points per 100 possessions outside of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass—an execrable level of point prevention that, if representing the whole team, would slot in several sub-basements below the Grizzlies’ last-place defense.
这套阵容的大部分问题来自于防守:根据Cleaning the Glass(美国知名NBA数据网站)的数据,尼克斯的新首发阵容在垃圾时间之外每100回合可以允许对手得到119.9分,这种防守能力太不佳了,如果这代表了整个球队,那么灰熊队的最后防线之前还有很大的进攻空间。
The starters give up a ton of 3-pointers—nearly 42 long balls per 48 minutes, accounting for just under 45 percent of opponents’ total shot attempts—and those shots are finding the bottom of the net at a scorching 41.6 percent clip. That number’s likely to come down some, just by virtue of the variable nature of long-distance shooting. It’s not wholly artificial, though.
先发球员放弃了大量的三分球——每48分钟将近42个远距离投篮,占对手总投篮次数的不到45%——而这些三分球的命中率达到了炙热的41.6%。这个数字可能会下降一些,仅仅是因为远程投射会存在多变性。当然,这也不全是人为原因。
Like Trae Young’s Hawks did in the playoffs, opponents have had success manipulating and exploiting the Knicks’ preferred coverage. You beat the tip-of-the-spear defender on the perimeter; you get into the teeth of the defense; you draw help from the low man responsible for covering the corner; you spray the ball out to an open shooter. Lather, rinse, repeat.
就像特雷-杨所在的老鹰队在季后赛做的那样,对手已经成功掌握和利用了尼克斯队偏爱的那种防守方式。在外线击败了顶尖的防守者;而后会触及对手的要害;从一个隐藏在角落的球员处得到帮助;把球传到处于空位的队友手里边。像冲洗掉泡沫一样一次又一次的重复。
Combine those schematic lapses with the sort of lack-of-focus breakdowns you didn’t often see from the Knicks last season—aggressive over-help when it’s not required, late rotations, lackadaisical closeouts with hands down, etc.—and you’ve got a recipe for target practice:
把这些战术上的失误和上个赛季尼克斯不常看到的那种缺乏专注力的问题结合起来——在不需要的时候提供过度的帮助,换防时间晚,懒散的投篮等等一些问题。——而且他们已经掌握了投篮练习的方法。
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The hope was that any defensive decline would be offset by a more multifaceted offense that relied less on Randle playing in isolation. With rare exceptions, though, that hasn’t materialized: The starters are scoring only 103.7 points-per-100, which would rank 25th in the league over the full season.
希望任何的防守下降都能被一个更加全面的进攻所抵消,这些进攻可以不那么依赖兰德尔的个人能力的发挥。然而,除了少数一些球外,上边我们所希望的并没有实现:首发球员的得分只有103.7分,在这个赛季所有球队中排名联盟第25。
Fournier’s shooting just 40.5 percent from the field, with his worst assist-to-turnover ratio since 2017. And while Walker’s drilling 41.7 percent of his triples, he’s rarely ventured into the lane, looking to penetrate and score less than he has in years:
富尼耶的投篮命中率只有40.5%,而且在这个赛季他的助攻和失误比是他自2017年最差。虽然沃克的三分命中率达到了41.7%,但是他现在寻求突破的次数少了,得分也比前几年少的多了。
Kemba’s not alone there. Nearly every member of the Knicks’ rotation is driving less frequently this season than in 2020-21; Randle and Barrett, New York’s leaders in frontcourt touches last season, have combined for about 7.5 fewer forays into the paint per game. Some of that owes to the prioritization of the long ball. Some of it, though, stems from clear discomfort in a group that has struggled mightily to lock into a rhythm. (SNY’s Ian Begley reported Sunday that “privately, a couple of top rotation players have expressed frustration with how things have played out on offense.”)
肯巴并不孤单。与2021-21赛季相比,本赛季尼克斯队几乎每个轮换球员的进攻效率都有所下降;兰德尔和巴雷特,上个赛季纽约的前场领袖,每场比赛在内线的进攻减少了7.5次。其中一部分要归功于长传球的优先顺序。还有一部分原因是这支球队还没有完全适应,这支球队一直在努力保持一种节奏。(SNY的伊恩-贝格利周日报道时称“私下里,几名轮换球员对球队的进攻表示失望”)
Some possessions are all gridlock and stagnation, with nobody moving away from the ball. On others, it’s the wrong kind of movement—an ill-advised cut from the weak side, bringing a second defender to the action to clog the lane and deter a post-up or drive. Sometimes the ball handler can’t create an advantage one-on-one off the dribble; sometimes a teammate can’t capitalize once that edge is created, squandering opportunities with hesitation that allows the defense to reset.
在没有人不参与进攻的情况下,球队可能会陷入僵局和停滞。在另一些情况下,这是一种错误——从弱侧进行不明智的切入,让第二名防守队员参与到阻挡进攻路线的行动中,阻止切入或者进攻。有时候持球者无法通过运球创造出来一对一的优势;也有时候是队友创造了优势但是犹豫后无法利用,就将这次机会浪费掉了,让防守球员能够及时的落入防守位。
Hit-ahead passes thrown behind streaking teammates, lobs off-time and off-target, handoffs not actually handed off, shots forced in traffic or not taken confidently off the catch—name a form of offensive dysfunction, and the Knicks’ starters have put it on tape:
对无球跑位的队友有一个传球提前量,但是并没有将球传到处于空位的队友手里,有时是被对手断掉或者被迫投出不明智的球,这是一种进攻的障碍,尼克斯的球员已经将这种情况记下来了。
“It’s just weird out there right now. That’s the best way I could describe it,” Randle recently said. “It’s just kind of weird, and just a little bit choppy, and we’re just trying to figure it out.”
“现在外界有一些奇怪,这是我能够描述的最好的方式。”兰德尔最近说到,“还有一点奇怪,而且球队也有一些起伏,我们只是想把他弄清楚。”
That includes Randle himself, who remains productive—one of just three players averaging more than 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game this season, alongside MVPs Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo—but whose 2020-21 scoring and shooting efficiency has declined during an early-season skid emblematic of the team’s larger malaise.
兰德尔仍然保持着高效率——本赛季只有三名球员场均得分超过20分,10个篮板和5次助攻,除他之外,还有最有价值球员尼古拉-约基奇和扬尼斯-阿德托昆博,但是兰德尔在2020-21赛季初的得分和投篮效率下降象征着球队更大的问题。
Last season, when the Knicks stagnated, they turned to Randle to bail them out with an array of exceedingly difficult shots that went in at career-best rates, fueling his rise to All-Star, All-NBA, and Most Improved Player glory. This season, though, the prayers are more often going unanswered:
上赛季,当尼克斯进攻陷入停滞的时候,兰德尔可以提供帮助,用一系列极其困难的投篮帮助球队摆脱困境,这些投篮以他职业生涯最佳的速度进行,推动他上升到全明星和NBA最佳球员的位置,然而上一个赛季的期许在这个赛季没有得到回应。
The woes of Randle, Barrett (down to 38.8 percent from the field and 30.5 percent from deep, as last season’s shooting surge fades from memory), and the rest of the Knicks’ starters are thrown into even starker relief when viewed alongside the performance of the dudes who check in when they check out. New York’s second unit—Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin, and Taj Gibson—has been hammering fools, outscoring opponents by 49 points in 89 minutes.
兰德尔,巴雷特(投篮命中率分别下降到了38.8%和30.5%,上个赛季他们的投篮命中率飙升已经不复存在了)和尼克斯队其他首发球员的困境与替补球员相比,会显示的更加明显。纽约的第二套阵容——德里克-罗斯,伊曼纽尔-奎克利,亚历克-伯克斯,奥比-托平和泰-吉布森一直攻击对是偶,可以在89分钟内净胜对手49分。
While some of that group’s success owes to particularly poor perimeter shooting by opposing reserve corps, the difference in energy, execution, and cohesion between the starters and reserves couldn’t be more clear. This is what the Knicks looked like during last season’s killer second-half run: pressuring the rim, bombing away from deep, hunting early offense in transition; on a string on the defensive end, aggressive on the ball and disciplined on rotations and closeouts, excellent at preventing 3-point attempts and at forcing opponents to take contested shots.
虽然这支球队的一些胜利是因为对手替补阵容糟糕的外线投篮,但是首发球员和替补球员在精力,执行力和凝聚力这些方面的差异再清楚不过了。这就是尼克斯队上赛季二阵容在下半场的样子:不断给篮筐施压,在外线投篮,再过渡时寻找快攻机会;在防守端:对球时刻保持侵略性,再换防上有纪律性,在阻止三分尝试和迫使对手采取不明智的投篮选择方面表现出色。
Thibodeau’s fully aware of the schism in productivity between his first and second units; that’s why he’s essentially benched his starters in the fourth quarter of a number of recent contests, riding his bench in hopes of cleaning up the mess their counterparts made. Quickley, Burks, Rose, and Toppin lead New York in fourth-quarter minutes over the past eight games; Walker and Fournier have been mothballed for the entire final frame in six of those contests. I’m not positive what roles the veteran guards had in mind when they signed with the Knicks, but I’m guessing “You’re Thibs’s new Carlos Boozer and Keith Bogans” wasn’t part of the pitch.
锡伯杜充分意识到他的第一和第二套阵容进攻之间的差异,这就是他为什么在最近几场比赛的第四节基本让他的首发球员坐冷板凳,坐在板凳上希望第二阵容能够清理对手制造的混乱。在过去八场比赛中,伯克斯,罗斯和托平领导着纽约;沃克和富尼耶在最近的六场比赛中的最后一节都被封存了一般。我不太清楚这些老后卫在与尼克斯签约时想扮演什么角色,但是我猜“这是锡伯杜的新卡洛斯布泽尔和基斯博甘斯”不是其中的一部分。
Calls for Thibodeau to damn the torpedoes and play small ball more often—most notably by redistributing some center minutes to a Randle-Toppin pairing that could help speed up New York’s pace of play, afford hustle merchant Toppin more playing time, and give Randle more opportunities to attack slower 5s off the bounce—will likely go unheard, given his bone-deep belief in playing traditional centers to protect the rim. But he wouldn’t be playing his backups so damn much if he didn’t recognize that something was wrong, and that whatever it is goes beyond a new lineup needing more time to jell.
鉴于兰德尔根深蒂固的认为传统中锋可以保护住篮筐,他呼吁锡伯杜更加经常的攻击篮筐,打小球战术——最明显的是将场上的时间重新分配给兰德尔和托平搭档,这可能有助于加快纽约比赛的节奏,给予托平更多的上场时间,并且给兰德尔更多的机会在篮下进攻得分——这可能会被忽略,但是他一直相信传统中锋能够保护篮筐。但如果他没有意识到有些地方出了问题,那么他就要坐在替补席上看队友打比赛了,而且不管怎样,新阵容都需要更多的时间来磨合。
“You know what they say,” Thibodeau recently told reporters. “When it’s 10 games, you say you need 20. When you get to 20, you say 30. And you get to 30, you say 40. And then before you know it, the season’s over, so it’s a bunch of bullshit.”
“你知道他们怎么说?”锡伯杜在最近的采访中对记者说到。“当有10场比赛来给你适应时,你说你需要20场,当你得到了20场,你就会说30场,当你得到30场,你会想要40场,在你反应过来之前,赛季已经结束了,所以这都是一堆废话。”
The Knicks have sputtered amid the supposedly friendliest part of their calendar, an early-season slate that’s been one of the softest in the NBA, according to several different strength-of-schedule metrics. That’s about to change: After the Lakers, New York will take on the surging Suns, Hawks, and Nets before opening December with another date with the Bulls. It’s the kind of rough patch that will become more common for the Knicks, who now face the toughest remaining schedule in the league.
根据几个不同的赛程强度指标,尼克斯队在赛季刚开始时的赛程应该是他们赛程最友好的部分,同时也是整个NBA中在赛季开始最舒服的赛程之一。这种情况即将改变:在对阵湖人之后,在12月初与公牛的另一次对战之前,纽约将会于正处于势头的太阳、老鹰还有篮网展开较量。对于尼克斯来说,这种艰难的时期将会更加常见,他们现在正面临着联盟中最艰难的赛程。
That’s why it would’ve been pretty nice to bag those wins against the Magic … and why, if Thibodeau doesn’t want his team’s sluggish starts and brutal third quarters (they’re getting outscored by nearly 10 points-per-100 coming out of halftime) to become a terminal condition, he needs to go under the hood and figure out how to tune up his first five.
这就是为什么在对阵魔术的比赛中取得胜利会很好... 如果锡伯杜不希望他的球队缓慢的开局和残酷的第三节(中场休息后,他们的得分比魔术高出近10分)来终结胜利,他需要深入了解并弄清楚如何调整他的首发阵容。
One (admittedly unlikely) option? Move Walker to the bench. The samples are small, but the starters’ problems have basically disappeared once Kemba does: Lineups featuring the foursome of Randle, Barrett, Fournier, and Walker have been outscored by 12.4 points-per-100 in 732 possessions, while versions featuring Randle, Barrett, and Fournier without Kemba have blitzed opponents by 24.8 points-per-100 in 163 possessions.
一个(大家都认为不太可能的)选择?把沃克移到板凳席上。这种可能性很小,但是一旦肯巴做到了,首发阵容的问题基本上就消失了:由兰德尔、巴雷特、富尼耶和沃克四人组成的阵容在732回合中每100分钟能够被超过12.4分,而由兰德尔、巴雷特和富尼耶组成的阵容在没有肯巴的情况下在163回合中以每100分钟24.8分的优势击败对手。
Nearly all of those minutes have come with Rose in Walker’s place. It stands to reason that starting a larger point—Rose is 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, while Walker measures 6-foot and 184 pounds with a 6-foot-4 wingspan—with much more experience executing Thibodeau’s defensive scheme could help mitigate some of the issues with dribble penetration, screen navigation, and blown rotations that have plagued New York. If Thibs didn’t want to move Rose out of the sixth man role in which he’s been so effective, he could also elevate Quickley, whose per-minute production has been nearly identical to Walker’s this season, and who would also provide more length (6-foot-3, 6-foot-8 wingspan) and better ball pressure up top. Doing that would mean breaking up the extremely effective second unit, though, which Thibs seems loath to do.
几乎这些所有的时间都是用罗斯来替代沃克。显而易见,从身体上来说——罗斯身高6英尺2英寸,体重200磅,臂展6英尺8英寸,而沃克身高6英尺,体重184磅,拥有6英尺4英寸的臂展——有更多的经验来执行锡伯杜的防守计划,可能有助于减轻困扰纽约的运球突破,挡拆和换防失误的问题。如果提布斯不想让罗斯失去他一直起作用的第六人角色,它也可以将奎克利提到首发的位置,他的在场上每分钟的效率与沃克本赛季的基本相同,而且他还拥有更好的身高和臂展(分别是6英尺3英寸和6英尺8英寸)和更好的防守压力。然而这样做将意味着将球队有效的第二阵容分解了,而且锡伯杜好像也不愿这样做。
Maybe he’d be more amenable to shuffling Fournier to the bench, for either Quickley or Burks, under the guise of trying to kickstart the foundering Frenchman’s game by giving him more freedom to handle and create against backups. Fournier’s averaging fewer touches per game and posting a lower usage rate than he has in seven seasons; while Knicks brass didn’t guarantee him $54 million to sit on the bench, they also didn’t do it to park him in the corner, so it might be worth a shot to see if they can get him going. Or maybe Thibs, ever the defense-first traditionalist, likes the idea of his four perimeter starters backstopped by Nerlens Noel, the shot-blocking, steal-snagging last line of defense who missed 11 of New York’s first 15 games. That group is plus-seven in its first 30 minutes together; maybe he’d like to get a longer look at it before making any big changes.
或许他更愿意把富尼耶拖到板凳席上,不管是为了奎克利还是伯克斯,假借着给他更多自由去处理比赛的幌子,来让这个法国人重新重视比赛。富尼耶现在平均每场比赛的触球次数更少了,而且这个赛季是他最近七个赛季中的上场率最低的一个赛季;虽然尼克斯的管理层没有保证让他坐在板凳上得到5400万美元,但他们也没有把他放在板凳上里,所以也许值得一试,看看他们是否能让他上场。或者,永远是以防守为主要的传统主义者锡伯杜,有了让诺伦斯-诺埃尔来给他的四位首发外线球员策应的想法,这个尼克斯队的最后防线在纽约的前15场比赛中缺席了11场。这一套阵容在开始的30分钟的正负值为+7;在做出任何大的改变之前,或许他都要再好好想想。
Perhaps that’s wise. After all, at this stage last season, the Knicks were 8-9 with a negative efficiency differential; shit, they were under .500 with 20 games left. It can take time for things to fall into place.
或许这是明智的,毕竟,在上个赛季的这个时间,尼克斯队8胜9负,正负值为负;该死,他们还剩20场比赛胜率就不到五成了,这个事情可能需要一些时间来解决。
“[The offensive rhythm] really wasn’t there at the beginning of last year, either,” Barrett recently told reporters. “That’s why you have 82 games.”
“(进攻节奏)在去年的年初也没有”巴雷特最近向记者说道,“这就是我们有82场比赛的原因。”
The Knicks need to use the ones they’ve got left to locate some answers—how to get Randle rumbling to the rim more often, as he did on his way to 34 points in the loss to Chicago; how to get Barrett and Fournier knocking down spot-up jumpers and contributing as secondary playmakers; how to improve upon a 25th-place showing in defensive rebounding rate; and how to more effectively limit and contest 3-point attempts. Finding them could be the difference between the Knicks being more or less the team we expected and becoming a better one—the kind that can not only make the playoffs, but make some noise once it gets there.
尼克斯需要用他们剩下的时间来找到一些答案——如何让兰德尔更加频繁的冲击篮筐,就像他在输给芝加哥的比赛中得到34分一样;如何让巴雷特和富尼耶完成定点投篮,并作为场上的第二个组织者做出贡献;如何提高联盟第25名的防守篮板率;以及如何有效限制对手的三分尝试。找出这些问题的答案可能是尼克斯或多或少成为我们所期望的球队和更好的球队的方式——这样的球队不仅可以进入季后赛,而且一旦进入季后赛就可以证明自己。
The Knicks’ Starters Can’t Keep Getting Outplayed by the Bench
尼克斯的首发不能总是被板凳队打败。
New York’s starting lineup is somehow both the most-used and second-least-successful in the NBA. Meanwhile, a reserve unit highlighted by the likes of Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley continues to thrive.
纽约的首发阵容从某种程度上来说是在NBA中使用频率最广的,也是第二不成功的。与此同时,以德里克-罗斯和伊曼纽尔-奎克利为代表的替补阵容正在发光发亮。
After a red-hot 5-1 start that threatened to make “Bing Bong” the new motto of New York City, the Knicks have more or less settled into the team we expected them to be heading into the season. They’re better on offense after adding Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, tied for ninth in the NBA in points scored per possession thanks to a newfound commitment to hoisting 3-pointers; 39.9 percent of their shots have come from beyond the arc, up from 32 percent last season. They’ve dipped down to 17th in defensive efficiency, though, due partly to the new backcourt’s inability to match the on-ball effectiveness of ex-starters Reggie Bullock and Elfrid Payton.
在经历了一个火热的五胜一负的开局之后,纽约尼克斯队或多或少的成为了那一支以我们希望的方式进入新赛季的球队。在肯巴-沃克和埃文-富尼耶的加入之后,他们的进攻变得比以前更好了,这多亏了他们在赛季前对提高三分数的承诺,现在他们每回合并列NBA第九,其中有39.9%的投篮来自于三分线外,高于上赛季的32%。不过,他们的防守效率已经下降到了第17位,部分原因是新后场的控球效率无法与前先发雷吉-布洛克和埃尔弗里德-佩顿相媲美。
That simultaneous rise and fall has Tom Thibodeau’s team looking like the photo negative of last year’s squad, which rode an elite defense and a shocking All-NBA turn from Julius Randle to the East’s no. 4 seed. The Knicks enter Tuesday’s meeting with the LeBron James–less Lakers in ninth place at 9-8, with a winning percentage and efficiency differential suggesting they’re somewhere between a 43- and 46-win team—a little above average, but not a real contender. Which, again, seems about right, given both the quality of the previous roster and the moves they made this summer.
这支球队的同时起起落落让汤姆-锡伯杜的球队看起来就像去年那支球队的负面照片,这支球队拥有精英式的防守,同时令人震惊的让朱利叶斯-兰德尔变成了东部的第四号种子。尼克斯在经历了周二与勒布朗-詹姆斯缺席湖人队的比赛后以9胜8负的战绩排名东部第九,他们的胜率和效率差异表明他们是一支在43胜到46胜之间的球队——略高于平均水平,但并不是有力的竞争者。考虑到之前的阵容质量和他们在这个夏天所做的交易,这一次,他们好像是正确的。
The devil’s in the details, though, and zooming in on those reveals a team that has cratered since that hot start. After a tough road loss to the evidently-for-real Bulls on Sunday, New York has lost seven of its last 11 games, with a bottom-10 offense in November. Their last four Ws have come against the Bucks without Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez (and with Jrue Holiday on a minutes restriction); the 76ers without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Matisse Thybulle; the Pacers, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by shooting 2-for-20 in the fourth quarter; and the league-worst Rockets, whom the Knicks barely squeaked past with a 17-4 fourth-quarter run. The Magic are 2-13 against the rest of the NBA; they are 2-1 against the Knicks.
然而,魔鬼在于细节,放大这些细节后,就会发现这支球队在火热的开局后就陷入了困境。在周日输给公牛队后,纽约在过去的11场比赛中输了7场,在11月的进攻也排到了倒数后十位。他们的最近四场比赛都是在对阵没有克里斯-米德尔顿和布鲁克-洛佩斯的雄鹿队(而且朱-霍勒迪的上场时间也有限制);对阵没有乔尔-恩比德,托拜厄斯-哈里斯和马蒂斯-赛布尔的76人队;步行者队在第四节20投2中,从胜利的边缘抓住了败局;还有联盟最差的火箭,尼克斯在第四节以17-4的比分勉强击败了火箭。魔术队对阵联盟其他球队的时候是2胜13负,但对阵尼克斯时为2胜1负。
There hasn’t been much joy at Madison Square Garden of late, with the Knicks repeatedly getting themselves stuck in the mud. Watching them calls to mind the old adage: If you want to get out of the hole, first you need to put down the shovel. In New York’s case, that means finding a way to shake up a starting five—Walker and Fournier in the backcourt, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett at forward, Mitchell Robinson in the middle—that has been outscored by a staggering 87 points in 270 minutes, making it both the most frequently used and second-least-successful lineup in the entire NBA.
最近在麦迪逊广场花园,尼克斯多次陷入泥沼,这让我想起了一句老话:如果你想从困境中出来,你需要放下你的铲子。就纽约现在的情况来看,他们需要找到一种方法来改变他们的首发五虎——沃克和富尼耶作为后场,朱利叶斯-兰德尔和RJ-巴雷特作为前锋,米切尔-罗宾逊顶到中锋的位置上——在270分钟的比赛中,尼克斯队能被超过惊人的87分,这使得它成为全NBA使用频率最高,同时也是第二不成功的阵容。
The bulk of the damage has come on defense: The Knicks’ new-look starting lineup is allowing 119.9 points per 100 possessions outside of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass—an execrable level of point prevention that, if representing the whole team, would slot in several sub-basements below the Grizzlies’ last-place defense.
这套阵容的大部分问题来自于防守:根据Cleaning the Glass(美国知名NBA数据网站)的数据,尼克斯的新首发阵容在垃圾时间之外每100回合可以允许对手得到119.9分,这种防守能力太不佳了,如果这代表了整个球队,那么灰熊队的最后防线之前还有很大的进攻空间。
The starters give up a ton of 3-pointers—nearly 42 long balls per 48 minutes, accounting for just under 45 percent of opponents’ total shot attempts—and those shots are finding the bottom of the net at a scorching 41.6 percent clip. That number’s likely to come down some, just by virtue of the variable nature of long-distance shooting. It’s not wholly artificial, though.
先发球员放弃了大量的三分球——每48分钟将近42个远距离投篮,占对手总投篮次数的不到45%——而这些三分球的命中率达到了炙热的41.6%。这个数字可能会下降一些,仅仅是因为远程投射会存在多变性。当然,这也不全是人为原因。
Like Trae Young’s Hawks did in the playoffs, opponents have had success manipulating and exploiting the Knicks’ preferred coverage. You beat the tip-of-the-spear defender on the perimeter; you get into the teeth of the defense; you draw help from the low man responsible for covering the corner; you spray the ball out to an open shooter. Lather, rinse, repeat.
就像特雷-杨所在的老鹰队在季后赛做的那样,对手已经成功掌握和利用了尼克斯队偏爱的那种防守方式。在外线击败了顶尖的防守者;而后会触及对手的要害;从一个隐藏在角落的球员处得到帮助;把球传到处于空位的队友手里边。像冲洗掉泡沫一样一次又一次的重复。
Combine those schematic lapses with the sort of lack-of-focus breakdowns you didn’t often see from the Knicks last season—aggressive over-help when it’s not required, late rotations, lackadaisical closeouts with hands down, etc.—and you’ve got a recipe for target practice:
把这些战术上的失误和上个赛季尼克斯不常看到的那种缺乏专注力的问题结合起来——在不需要的时候提供过度的帮助,换防时间晚,懒散的投篮等等一些问题。——而且他们已经掌握了投篮练习的方法。
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The hope was that any defensive decline would be offset by a more multifaceted offense that relied less on Randle playing in isolation. With rare exceptions, though, that hasn’t materialized: The starters are scoring only 103.7 points-per-100, which would rank 25th in the league over the full season.
希望任何的防守下降都能被一个更加全面的进攻所抵消,这些进攻可以不那么依赖兰德尔的个人能力的发挥。然而,除了少数一些球外,上边我们所希望的并没有实现:首发球员的得分只有103.7分,在这个赛季所有球队中排名联盟第25。
Fournier’s shooting just 40.5 percent from the field, with his worst assist-to-turnover ratio since 2017. And while Walker’s drilling 41.7 percent of his triples, he’s rarely ventured into the lane, looking to penetrate and score less than he has in years:
富尼耶的投篮命中率只有40.5%,而且在这个赛季他的助攻和失误比是他自2017年最差。虽然沃克的三分命中率达到了41.7%,但是他现在寻求突破的次数少了,得分也比前几年少的多了。
Kemba’s not alone there. Nearly every member of the Knicks’ rotation is driving less frequently this season than in 2020-21; Randle and Barrett, New York’s leaders in frontcourt touches last season, have combined for about 7.5 fewer forays into the paint per game. Some of that owes to the prioritization of the long ball. Some of it, though, stems from clear discomfort in a group that has struggled mightily to lock into a rhythm. (SNY’s Ian Begley reported Sunday that “privately, a couple of top rotation players have expressed frustration with how things have played out on offense.”)
肯巴并不孤单。与2021-21赛季相比,本赛季尼克斯队几乎每个轮换球员的进攻效率都有所下降;兰德尔和巴雷特,上个赛季纽约的前场领袖,每场比赛在内线的进攻减少了7.5次。其中一部分要归功于长传球的优先顺序。还有一部分原因是这支球队还没有完全适应,这支球队一直在努力保持一种节奏。(SNY的伊恩-贝格利周日报道时称“私下里,几名轮换球员对球队的进攻表示失望”)
Some possessions are all gridlock and stagnation, with nobody moving away from the ball. On others, it’s the wrong kind of movement—an ill-advised cut from the weak side, bringing a second defender to the action to clog the lane and deter a post-up or drive. Sometimes the ball handler can’t create an advantage one-on-one off the dribble; sometimes a teammate can’t capitalize once that edge is created, squandering opportunities with hesitation that allows the defense to reset.
在没有人不参与进攻的情况下,球队可能会陷入僵局和停滞。在另一些情况下,这是一种错误——从弱侧进行不明智的切入,让第二名防守队员参与到阻挡进攻路线的行动中,阻止切入或者进攻。有时候持球者无法通过运球创造出来一对一的优势;也有时候是队友创造了优势但是犹豫后无法利用,就将这次机会浪费掉了,让防守球员能够及时的落入防守位。
Hit-ahead passes thrown behind streaking teammates, lobs off-time and off-target, handoffs not actually handed off, shots forced in traffic or not taken confidently off the catch—name a form of offensive dysfunction, and the Knicks’ starters have put it on tape:
对无球跑位的队友有一个传球提前量,但是并没有将球传到处于空位的队友手里,有时是被对手断掉或者被迫投出不明智的球,这是一种进攻的障碍,尼克斯的球员已经将这种情况记下来了。
“It’s just weird out there right now. That’s the best way I could describe it,” Randle recently said. “It’s just kind of weird, and just a little bit choppy, and we’re just trying to figure it out.”
“现在外界有一些奇怪,这是我能够描述的最好的方式。”兰德尔最近说到,“还有一点奇怪,而且球队也有一些起伏,我们只是想把他弄清楚。”
That includes Randle himself, who remains productive—one of just three players averaging more than 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game this season, alongside MVPs Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo—but whose 2020-21 scoring and shooting efficiency has declined during an early-season skid emblematic of the team’s larger malaise.
兰德尔仍然保持着高效率——本赛季只有三名球员场均得分超过20分,10个篮板和5次助攻,除他之外,还有最有价值球员尼古拉-约基奇和扬尼斯-阿德托昆博,但是兰德尔在2020-21赛季初的得分和投篮效率下降象征着球队更大的问题。
Last season, when the Knicks stagnated, they turned to Randle to bail them out with an array of exceedingly difficult shots that went in at career-best rates, fueling his rise to All-Star, All-NBA, and Most Improved Player glory. This season, though, the prayers are more often going unanswered:
上赛季,当尼克斯进攻陷入停滞的时候,兰德尔可以提供帮助,用一系列极其困难的投篮帮助球队摆脱困境,这些投篮以他职业生涯最佳的速度进行,推动他上升到全明星和NBA最佳球员的位置,然而上一个赛季的期许在这个赛季没有得到回应。
The woes of Randle, Barrett (down to 38.8 percent from the field and 30.5 percent from deep, as last season’s shooting surge fades from memory), and the rest of the Knicks’ starters are thrown into even starker relief when viewed alongside the performance of the dudes who check in when they check out. New York’s second unit—Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin, and Taj Gibson—has been hammering fools, outscoring opponents by 49 points in 89 minutes.
兰德尔,巴雷特(投篮命中率分别下降到了38.8%和30.5%,上个赛季他们的投篮命中率飙升已经不复存在了)和尼克斯队其他首发球员的困境与替补球员相比,会显示的更加明显。纽约的第二套阵容——德里克-罗斯,伊曼纽尔-奎克利,亚历克-伯克斯,奥比-托平和泰-吉布森一直攻击对是偶,可以在89分钟内净胜对手49分。
While some of that group’s success owes to particularly poor perimeter shooting by opposing reserve corps, the difference in energy, execution, and cohesion between the starters and reserves couldn’t be more clear. This is what the Knicks looked like during last season’s killer second-half run: pressuring the rim, bombing away from deep, hunting early offense in transition; on a string on the defensive end, aggressive on the ball and disciplined on rotations and closeouts, excellent at preventing 3-point attempts and at forcing opponents to take contested shots.
虽然这支球队的一些胜利是因为对手替补阵容糟糕的外线投篮,但是首发球员和替补球员在精力,执行力和凝聚力这些方面的差异再清楚不过了。这就是尼克斯队上赛季二阵容在下半场的样子:不断给篮筐施压,在外线投篮,再过渡时寻找快攻机会;在防守端:对球时刻保持侵略性,再换防上有纪律性,在阻止三分尝试和迫使对手采取不明智的投篮选择方面表现出色。
Thibodeau’s fully aware of the schism in productivity between his first and second units; that’s why he’s essentially benched his starters in the fourth quarter of a number of recent contests, riding his bench in hopes of cleaning up the mess their counterparts made. Quickley, Burks, Rose, and Toppin lead New York in fourth-quarter minutes over the past eight games; Walker and Fournier have been mothballed for the entire final frame in six of those contests. I’m not positive what roles the veteran guards had in mind when they signed with the Knicks, but I’m guessing “You’re Thibs’s new Carlos Boozer and Keith Bogans” wasn’t part of the pitch.
锡伯杜充分意识到他的第一和第二套阵容进攻之间的差异,这就是他为什么在最近几场比赛的第四节基本让他的首发球员坐冷板凳,坐在板凳上希望第二阵容能够清理对手制造的混乱。在过去八场比赛中,伯克斯,罗斯和托平领导着纽约;沃克和富尼耶在最近的六场比赛中的最后一节都被封存了一般。我不太清楚这些老后卫在与尼克斯签约时想扮演什么角色,但是我猜“这是锡伯杜的新卡洛斯布泽尔和基斯博甘斯”不是其中的一部分。
Calls for Thibodeau to damn the torpedoes and play small ball more often—most notably by redistributing some center minutes to a Randle-Toppin pairing that could help speed up New York’s pace of play, afford hustle merchant Toppin more playing time, and give Randle more opportunities to attack slower 5s off the bounce—will likely go unheard, given his bone-deep belief in playing traditional centers to protect the rim. But he wouldn’t be playing his backups so damn much if he didn’t recognize that something was wrong, and that whatever it is goes beyond a new lineup needing more time to jell.
鉴于兰德尔根深蒂固的认为传统中锋可以保护住篮筐,他呼吁锡伯杜更加经常的攻击篮筐,打小球战术——最明显的是将场上的时间重新分配给兰德尔和托平搭档,这可能有助于加快纽约比赛的节奏,给予托平更多的上场时间,并且给兰德尔更多的机会在篮下进攻得分——这可能会被忽略,但是他一直相信传统中锋能够保护篮筐。但如果他没有意识到有些地方出了问题,那么他就要坐在替补席上看队友打比赛了,而且不管怎样,新阵容都需要更多的时间来磨合。
“You know what they say,” Thibodeau recently told reporters. “When it’s 10 games, you say you need 20. When you get to 20, you say 30. And you get to 30, you say 40. And then before you know it, the season’s over, so it’s a bunch of bullshit.”
“你知道他们怎么说?”锡伯杜在最近的采访中对记者说到。“当有10场比赛来给你适应时,你说你需要20场,当你得到了20场,你就会说30场,当你得到30场,你会想要40场,在你反应过来之前,赛季已经结束了,所以这都是一堆废话。”
The Knicks have sputtered amid the supposedly friendliest part of their calendar, an early-season slate that’s been one of the softest in the NBA, according to several different strength-of-schedule metrics. That’s about to change: After the Lakers, New York will take on the surging Suns, Hawks, and Nets before opening December with another date with the Bulls. It’s the kind of rough patch that will become more common for the Knicks, who now face the toughest remaining schedule in the league.
根据几个不同的赛程强度指标,尼克斯队在赛季刚开始时的赛程应该是他们赛程最友好的部分,同时也是整个NBA中在赛季开始最舒服的赛程之一。这种情况即将改变:在对阵湖人之后,在12月初与公牛的另一次对战之前,纽约将会于正处于势头的太阳、老鹰还有篮网展开较量。对于尼克斯来说,这种艰难的时期将会更加常见,他们现在正面临着联盟中最艰难的赛程。
That’s why it would’ve been pretty nice to bag those wins against the Magic … and why, if Thibodeau doesn’t want his team’s sluggish starts and brutal third quarters (they’re getting outscored by nearly 10 points-per-100 coming out of halftime) to become a terminal condition, he needs to go under the hood and figure out how to tune up his first five.
这就是为什么在对阵魔术的比赛中取得胜利会很好... 如果锡伯杜不希望他的球队缓慢的开局和残酷的第三节(中场休息后,他们的得分比魔术高出近10分)来终结胜利,他需要深入了解并弄清楚如何调整他的首发阵容。
One (admittedly unlikely) option? Move Walker to the bench. The samples are small, but the starters’ problems have basically disappeared once Kemba does: Lineups featuring the foursome of Randle, Barrett, Fournier, and Walker have been outscored by 12.4 points-per-100 in 732 possessions, while versions featuring Randle, Barrett, and Fournier without Kemba have blitzed opponents by 24.8 points-per-100 in 163 possessions.
一个(大家都认为不太可能的)选择?把沃克移到板凳席上。这种可能性很小,但是一旦肯巴做到了,首发阵容的问题基本上就消失了:由兰德尔、巴雷特、富尼耶和沃克四人组成的阵容在732回合中每100分钟能够被超过12.4分,而由兰德尔、巴雷特和富尼耶组成的阵容在没有肯巴的情况下在163回合中以每100分钟24.8分的优势击败对手。
Nearly all of those minutes have come with Rose in Walker’s place. It stands to reason that starting a larger point—Rose is 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, while Walker measures 6-foot and 184 pounds with a 6-foot-4 wingspan—with much more experience executing Thibodeau’s defensive scheme could help mitigate some of the issues with dribble penetration, screen navigation, and blown rotations that have plagued New York. If Thibs didn’t want to move Rose out of the sixth man role in which he’s been so effective, he could also elevate Quickley, whose per-minute production has been nearly identical to Walker’s this season, and who would also provide more length (6-foot-3, 6-foot-8 wingspan) and better ball pressure up top. Doing that would mean breaking up the extremely effective second unit, though, which Thibs seems loath to do.
几乎这些所有的时间都是用罗斯来替代沃克。显而易见,从身体上来说——罗斯身高6英尺2英寸,体重200磅,臂展6英尺8英寸,而沃克身高6英尺,体重184磅,拥有6英尺4英寸的臂展——有更多的经验来执行锡伯杜的防守计划,可能有助于减轻困扰纽约的运球突破,挡拆和换防失误的问题。如果提布斯不想让罗斯失去他一直起作用的第六人角色,它也可以将奎克利提到首发的位置,他的在场上每分钟的效率与沃克本赛季的基本相同,而且他还拥有更好的身高和臂展(分别是6英尺3英寸和6英尺8英寸)和更好的防守压力。然而这样做将意味着将球队有效的第二阵容分解了,而且锡伯杜好像也不愿这样做。
Maybe he’d be more amenable to shuffling Fournier to the bench, for either Quickley or Burks, under the guise of trying to kickstart the foundering Frenchman’s game by giving him more freedom to handle and create against backups. Fournier’s averaging fewer touches per game and posting a lower usage rate than he has in seven seasons; while Knicks brass didn’t guarantee him $54 million to sit on the bench, they also didn’t do it to park him in the corner, so it might be worth a shot to see if they can get him going. Or maybe Thibs, ever the defense-first traditionalist, likes the idea of his four perimeter starters backstopped by Nerlens Noel, the shot-blocking, steal-snagging last line of defense who missed 11 of New York’s first 15 games. That group is plus-seven in its first 30 minutes together; maybe he’d like to get a longer look at it before making any big changes.
或许他更愿意把富尼耶拖到板凳席上,不管是为了奎克利还是伯克斯,假借着给他更多自由去处理比赛的幌子,来让这个法国人重新重视比赛。富尼耶现在平均每场比赛的触球次数更少了,而且这个赛季是他最近七个赛季中的上场率最低的一个赛季;虽然尼克斯的管理层没有保证让他坐在板凳上得到5400万美元,但他们也没有把他放在板凳上里,所以也许值得一试,看看他们是否能让他上场。或者,永远是以防守为主要的传统主义者锡伯杜,有了让诺伦斯-诺埃尔来给他的四位首发外线球员策应的想法,这个尼克斯队的最后防线在纽约的前15场比赛中缺席了11场。这一套阵容在开始的30分钟的正负值为+7;在做出任何大的改变之前,或许他都要再好好想想。
Perhaps that’s wise. After all, at this stage last season, the Knicks were 8-9 with a negative efficiency differential; shit, they were under .500 with 20 games left. It can take time for things to fall into place.
或许这是明智的,毕竟,在上个赛季的这个时间,尼克斯队8胜9负,正负值为负;该死,他们还剩20场比赛胜率就不到五成了,这个事情可能需要一些时间来解决。
“[The offensive rhythm] really wasn’t there at the beginning of last year, either,” Barrett recently told reporters. “That’s why you have 82 games.”
“(进攻节奏)在去年的年初也没有”巴雷特最近向记者说道,“这就是我们有82场比赛的原因。”
The Knicks need to use the ones they’ve got left to locate some answers—how to get Randle rumbling to the rim more often, as he did on his way to 34 points in the loss to Chicago; how to get Barrett and Fournier knocking down spot-up jumpers and contributing as secondary playmakers; how to improve upon a 25th-place showing in defensive rebounding rate; and how to more effectively limit and contest 3-point attempts. Finding them could be the difference between the Knicks being more or less the team we expected and becoming a better one—the kind that can not only make the playoffs, but make some noise once it gets there.
尼克斯需要用他们剩下的时间来找到一些答案——如何让兰德尔更加频繁的冲击篮筐,就像他在输给芝加哥的比赛中得到34分一样;如何让巴雷特和富尼耶完成定点投篮,并作为场上的第二个组织者做出贡献;如何提高联盟第25名的防守篮板率;以及如何有效限制对手的三分尝试。找出这些问题的答案可能是尼克斯或多或少成为我们所期望的球队和更好的球队的方式——这样的球队不仅可以进入季后赛,而且一旦进入季后赛就可以证明自己。