Will 2021 NBA Offseason's Biggest Gambles Work Out?
The nuances of team chemistry and the year-to-year variability of player performance make almost every NBA offseason move a gamble, but some wagers are riskier than others.
In many cases, we won't see these bets pay off (or not) until the end of the 2022 postseason. But based on what we know now, combined with some reasonable guesswork, we can forecast which offseason transactions seem most likely to hit and which ones look like suckers' plays.
The moves we've gathered here are all relatively high profile. Virtually all of them could have an impact on the championship race—either this season or in the near future. In other words, the stakes are high.
Let's see whose bets look best with just two weeks to go before the 2021-22 season gets rolling.
Michael Porter Jr.'s Max Extension
On Sept. 27, the Denver Nuggets locked in the third max-level piece of their core, inking Michael Porter Jr. to a five-year extension worth between $172 and $207 million, depending on incentives, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
That's a lot of money for a 23-year-old who missed most of his lone collegiate season at Missouri and his entire rookie year because of a pair of back surgeries—particularly one who hasn't shown much interest or acumen on the defensive end. It's risky to max out a one-way player who, because of Nikola Jokic's presence, will never have the ball as much as top options typically do.
MPJ's scoring prowess is undeniable, though. He has a chance to be one of those rare high-volume, high-efficiency dynamos on the level of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Not just because he's a knockdown shooter who drilled 44.5 percent of his treys, but also because he's lights-out from everywhere. Porter graded in the 95th percentile among forwards in scoring efficiency at the rim and finished in the 89th percentile from the mid-range area last year.
In NBA history, there have been 10 seasons in which a player took at least 800 shots and posted a true shooting percentage north of 66.0 percent. Seven of them came before 1991. Since then, Curry has had two such years, and Porter joined the club (and is the youngest player on the list) in 2020-21. That's elite company.
At 6'10", Porter can shoot over just about everyone. Add to that the setup wizardry of Jokic and MPJ's excellence as a cutter and garbage-bucket collector, and the path to plentiful points is clear.
If MPJ doesn't challenge for a scoring title in every year of his extension, it'll be a surprise.
Denver could have waited until restricted free agency this summer and kept Porter by matching whatever offer sheet he signed with another team. But I like that the Nuggets broadcast their willingness to pay premium talent, and Porter is certainly a premium talent.
Verdict: Buy
The Lakers Acquire Russell Westbrook
It's not a given that Russell Westbrook's demonstrated inability to take a backseat, historically poor shooting and declining athleticism will make him a tricky fit on a Los Angeles Lakers team whose only goal is winning another championship.
Russ has been on nine All-NBA teams, and they don't just hand out MVP trophies like the one he earned in 2016-17 to anyone. Obviously, he brings plenty to the table. But for the specific meal Los Angeles is trying to cook this season, Westbrook doesn't provide the right ingredients.
The theory of Westbrook as an innings-eater during the regular season checks out. He's proved he can carry middling surrounding talent through sheer force of will and relentlessness. He won his MVP doing exactly that.
That's ideal for someone who could run second units and take control of games when LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis rests. Preserving those two for the playoffs must be among Los Angeles' goals, and Russ can help in that effort. Send him out there on a random Tuesday in January when James and AD get a night off, and he can beat, say, the Sacramento Kings on his own.
That said, we know James needs to be surrounded with defense and shooting to optimize title chances, neither of which Westbrook provides. At 30.5 percent, he ranks dead last in accuracy among the 101 players who've attempted at least 3,000 career treys, and he shoots the three worse in the playoffs (29.6 percent for his career) than the regular season.
Postseason opponents, as they have long done with great results, will ignore Westbrook away from the ball. The spacing James and Davis need will disappear, leaving two bad options: Take the rock out of James' hands and put it in Westbrook's, or simply remove Russ from the floor during key postseason stretches.
Los Angeles will try to find different workarounds, perhaps successfully. But it's just not a good sign when taking your costliest offseason acquisition out of the game in the most consequential moments is a legitimate strategic consideration.
Westbrook should bring value during the year, but that's not when the Lakers need it. When the postseason rolls around, I'm not convinced he'll be all that helpful. The odds of his being a clearly positive force in those pivotal games is exceedingly low. Russ has lost six of the last seven playoff series in which he's appeared, and the Lakers need to win four series in a row to win it all.
Verdict: Sell
The Warriors Didn't Make a Win-Now Deal
Sometimes, the moves you don't make are the real gambles.
The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight playoff-less years, and they have a franchise icon in Stephen Curry entering his age-33 season. The motivation to go all-in by trading young players and future picks was clear: Give Steph a win-now roster to chase another title, the more distant future be damned. Curry's happiness with the franchise was a significant, related consideration.
The Dubs stood pat, largely because no deal emerged that would clearly vault them into title-favorite status.
It was the right decision.
Golden State has sneaky contender upside as it is, and the moves it did make over the offseason have created a real identity. The Dubs whipped the ball all over the floor, played small for most of the game and fired off a ridiculous 69 three-point shots in their first preseason game. That would have been one short of the all-time regular-season record for long-range attempts, and the Warriors did it without Klay Thompson.
You think maybe one of the greatest shooters of all time, who happens to have the itchiest trigger finger in the league, would have goosed that total if he'd been involved?
The youth Golden State retained by not swinging a deal—Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody—give it a bridge to the future. Poole, in particular, is going to break out and contend for Sixth Man of the Year this season...as long as Thompson comes back from his Achilles injury soon enough to knock him out of the first unit. If you're not on the Poole bandwagon, climb aboard now before it runs out of room.
The Warriors are basically pulling a San Antonio Spurs. They believe their talent and culture are strong enough to win now, and they're greedily positioning themselves to keep winning after this wave of top-notch stars ages out. It's paradoxical that a conservative strategy (not trading youth) is bold, but the Dubs clearly believe they're good enough to contend now and in the future without making a move.
You have to respect their confidence.
Verdict: Buy
The Mavericks Hire Jason Kidd as Head Coach
Jason Kidd comes with a long list of professional and personal transgressions, including a spousal abuse conviction in 2001, that mark the Hall of Fame point guard as a dubious head-coaching choice.
And while his past actions shouldn't recede into the background, he also has a losing record (183-190) as a head coach and a 37.5 playoff winning percentage.
Not only does Kidd's hiring as head coach of the Dallas Mavericks come with the near certainty of palace intrigue in coaching circles, it should also come with more brass-tacks questions about his ability to lead a winner.
The Mavericks, not far removed from the 2018 Sports Illustrated report by Jon Wertheim and Jessica Luther that revealed a startlingly dysfunctional work environment, should be ruthlessly questioned for giving the keys to someone with Kidd's history.
On the court, MVP short-lister Luka Doncic may just be great enough to secure Dallas the wins it needs to take the focus off Kidd. Great players have a way of making their coaches look capable, and it stands to reason that Kidd wouldn't have this job if Doncic hadn't endorsed the hire. It's tough to imagine making a decision this consequential without consulting the Mavs' generational superstar.
Charitably, Kidd may have grown over the years. Perhaps he's a different person and coach who's taken the lessons of his past to heart. But until he proves things are different in his third crack at a head coaching job—strategically and personally—Kidd doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Verdict: Sell
The Miami Heat Shove Their Chips into the Middle
The Miami Heat have mortgaged their future before, a reality made clear by the fact that they've only made their own first-round selection six times since 2009. They dealt two of those picks away on draft night, and one, Precious Achiuwa, is already gone as part of the sign-and-trade deal that brought 35-year-old Kyle Lowry aboard.
That preference for more established talent pays dividends. The Heat have only missed the playoffs three times since 2009. It's still worth pointing out that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are the only Heat first-round draftees still on the roster.
Few organizations embrace a YOLO mindset to this degree, and that was true before Miami added Lowry, inked Jimmy Butler to an extension that'll pay him $52.4 million in 2025-26, his age-36 season, and signed 36-year-old P.J. Tucker to play a starting role.
The Heat are all-in on veteran experience as they try to return to the Finals, and that approach comes with increased risk of injury and decline. The roster's lack of depth only exacerbates the worries associated with having older players occupying vital roles. If there's a breakdown, or if preventative nights off are the norm for Heat vets, the supporting cast isn't equipped to carry the load. Herro is the only upper-echelon reserve.
It might not seem wise to take such a present-focused tack with the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks positioned atop the conference, not to mention the rising Atlanta Hawks, potentially dangerous Philadelphia 76ers, gritty New York Knicks and overlooked Boston Celtics as East obstacles.
At the same time, those teams are all subject to the same whims of chance Miami is. If one or more of the Heat's top competitors run into a streak of bad luck, and if misfortune keeps its distance from South Beach, this aging group has a shot to grind its way through the playoffs.
Adebayo's status as a likely future All-NBA talent is a critical safety net. Miami's future will never be totally hopeless with him around—even if Lowry, Butler and Tucker all disappoint.
In the end, the Heat are doing what they've done for years: trusting their infrastructure, banking on known commodities and letting the future sort itself out. In a league full of teams with five-year plans and ever-growing hoards of incoming first-round picks, Miami's approach is refreshing.
And it might even work, too. If you're betting on a trio to fight off age with sheer force of will, Lowry, Butler and Tucker are solid picks.
Verdict: Buy
Will 2021 NBA Offseason's Biggest Gambles Work Out?
The nuances of team chemistry and the year-to-year variability of player performance make almost every NBA offseason move a gamble, but some wagers are riskier than others.
In many cases, we won't see these bets pay off (or not) until the end of the 2022 postseason. But based on what we know now, combined with some reasonable guesswork, we can forecast which offseason transactions seem most likely to hit and which ones look like suckers' plays.
The moves we've gathered here are all relatively high profile. Virtually all of them could have an impact on the championship race—either this season or in the near future. In other words, the stakes are high.
Let's see whose bets look best with just two weeks to go before the 2021-22 season gets rolling.
Michael Porter Jr.'s Max Extension
On Sept. 27, the Denver Nuggets locked in the third max-level piece of their core, inking Michael Porter Jr. to a five-year extension worth between $172 and $207 million, depending on incentives, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
That's a lot of money for a 23-year-old who missed most of his lone collegiate season at Missouri and his entire rookie year because of a pair of back surgeries—particularly one who hasn't shown much interest or acumen on the defensive end. It's risky to max out a one-way player who, because of Nikola Jokic's presence, will never have the ball as much as top options typically do.
MPJ's scoring prowess is undeniable, though. He has a chance to be one of those rare high-volume, high-efficiency dynamos on the level of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Not just because he's a knockdown shooter who drilled 44.5 percent of his treys, but also because he's lights-out from everywhere. Porter graded in the 95th percentile among forwards in scoring efficiency at the rim and finished in the 89th percentile from the mid-range area last year.
In NBA history, there have been 10 seasons in which a player took at least 800 shots and posted a true shooting percentage north of 66.0 percent. Seven of them came before 1991. Since then, Curry has had two such years, and Porter joined the club (and is the youngest player on the list) in 2020-21. That's elite company.
At 6'10", Porter can shoot over just about everyone. Add to that the setup wizardry of Jokic and MPJ's excellence as a cutter and garbage-bucket collector, and the path to plentiful points is clear.
If MPJ doesn't challenge for a scoring title in every year of his extension, it'll be a surprise.
Denver could have waited until restricted free agency this summer and kept Porter by matching whatever offer sheet he signed with another team. But I like that the Nuggets broadcast their willingness to pay premium talent, and Porter is certainly a premium talent.
Verdict: Buy
The Lakers Acquire Russell Westbrook
It's not a given that Russell Westbrook's demonstrated inability to take a backseat, historically poor shooting and declining athleticism will make him a tricky fit on a Los Angeles Lakers team whose only goal is winning another championship.
Russ has been on nine All-NBA teams, and they don't just hand out MVP trophies like the one he earned in 2016-17 to anyone. Obviously, he brings plenty to the table. But for the specific meal Los Angeles is trying to cook this season, Westbrook doesn't provide the right ingredients.
The theory of Westbrook as an innings-eater during the regular season checks out. He's proved he can carry middling surrounding talent through sheer force of will and relentlessness. He won his MVP doing exactly that.
That's ideal for someone who could run second units and take control of games when LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis rests. Preserving those two for the playoffs must be among Los Angeles' goals, and Russ can help in that effort. Send him out there on a random Tuesday in January when James and AD get a night off, and he can beat, say, the Sacramento Kings on his own.
That said, we know James needs to be surrounded with defense and shooting to optimize title chances, neither of which Westbrook provides. At 30.5 percent, he ranks dead last in accuracy among the 101 players who've attempted at least 3,000 career treys, and he shoots the three worse in the playoffs (29.6 percent for his career) than the regular season.
Postseason opponents, as they have long done with great results, will ignore Westbrook away from the ball. The spacing James and Davis need will disappear, leaving two bad options: Take the rock out of James' hands and put it in Westbrook's, or simply remove Russ from the floor during key postseason stretches.
Los Angeles will try to find different workarounds, perhaps successfully. But it's just not a good sign when taking your costliest offseason acquisition out of the game in the most consequential moments is a legitimate strategic consideration.
Westbrook should bring value during the year, but that's not when the Lakers need it. When the postseason rolls around, I'm not convinced he'll be all that helpful. The odds of his being a clearly positive force in those pivotal games is exceedingly low. Russ has lost six of the last seven playoff series in which he's appeared, and the Lakers need to win four series in a row to win it all.
Verdict: Sell
The Warriors Didn't Make a Win-Now Deal
Sometimes, the moves you don't make are the real gambles.
The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight playoff-less years, and they have a franchise icon in Stephen Curry entering his age-33 season. The motivation to go all-in by trading young players and future picks was clear: Give Steph a win-now roster to chase another title, the more distant future be damned. Curry's happiness with the franchise was a significant, related consideration.
The Dubs stood pat, largely because no deal emerged that would clearly vault them into title-favorite status.
It was the right decision.
Golden State has sneaky contender upside as it is, and the moves it did make over the offseason have created a real identity. The Dubs whipped the ball all over the floor, played small for most of the game and fired off a ridiculous 69 three-point shots in their first preseason game. That would have been one short of the all-time regular-season record for long-range attempts, and the Warriors did it without Klay Thompson.
You think maybe one of the greatest shooters of all time, who happens to have the itchiest trigger finger in the league, would have goosed that total if he'd been involved?
The youth Golden State retained by not swinging a deal—Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody—give it a bridge to the future. Poole, in particular, is going to break out and contend for Sixth Man of the Year this season...as long as Thompson comes back from his Achilles injury soon enough to knock him out of the first unit. If you're not on the Poole bandwagon, climb aboard now before it runs out of room.
The Warriors are basically pulling a San Antonio Spurs. They believe their talent and culture are strong enough to win now, and they're greedily positioning themselves to keep winning after this wave of top-notch stars ages out. It's paradoxical that a conservative strategy (not trading youth) is bold, but the Dubs clearly believe they're good enough to contend now and in the future without making a move.
You have to respect their confidence.
Verdict: Buy
The Mavericks Hire Jason Kidd as Head Coach
Jason Kidd comes with a long list of professional and personal transgressions, including a spousal abuse conviction in 2001, that mark the Hall of Fame point guard as a dubious head-coaching choice.
And while his past actions shouldn't recede into the background, he also has a losing record (183-190) as a head coach and a 37.5 playoff winning percentage.
Not only does Kidd's hiring as head coach of the Dallas Mavericks come with the near certainty of palace intrigue in coaching circles, it should also come with more brass-tacks questions about his ability to lead a winner.
The Mavericks, not far removed from the 2018 Sports Illustrated report by Jon Wertheim and Jessica Luther that revealed a startlingly dysfunctional work environment, should be ruthlessly questioned for giving the keys to someone with Kidd's history.
On the court, MVP short-lister Luka Doncic may just be great enough to secure Dallas the wins it needs to take the focus off Kidd. Great players have a way of making their coaches look capable, and it stands to reason that Kidd wouldn't have this job if Doncic hadn't endorsed the hire. It's tough to imagine making a decision this consequential without consulting the Mavs' generational superstar.
Charitably, Kidd may have grown over the years. Perhaps he's a different person and coach who's taken the lessons of his past to heart. But until he proves things are different in his third crack at a head coaching job—strategically and personally—Kidd doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Verdict: Sell
The Miami Heat Shove Their Chips into the Middle
The Miami Heat have mortgaged their future before, a reality made clear by the fact that they've only made their own first-round selection six times since 2009. They dealt two of those picks away on draft night, and one, Precious Achiuwa, is already gone as part of the sign-and-trade deal that brought 35-year-old Kyle Lowry aboard.
That preference for more established talent pays dividends. The Heat have only missed the playoffs three times since 2009. It's still worth pointing out that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are the only Heat first-round draftees still on the roster.
Few organizations embrace a YOLO mindset to this degree, and that was true before Miami added Lowry, inked Jimmy Butler to an extension that'll pay him $52.4 million in 2025-26, his age-36 season, and signed 36-year-old P.J. Tucker to play a starting role.
The Heat are all-in on veteran experience as they try to return to the Finals, and that approach comes with increased risk of injury and decline. The roster's lack of depth only exacerbates the worries associated with having older players occupying vital roles. If there's a breakdown, or if preventative nights off are the norm for Heat vets, the supporting cast isn't equipped to carry the load. Herro is the only upper-echelon reserve.
It might not seem wise to take such a present-focused tack with the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks positioned atop the conference, not to mention the rising Atlanta Hawks, potentially dangerous Philadelphia 76ers, gritty New York Knicks and overlooked Boston Celtics as East obstacles.
At the same time, those teams are all subject to the same whims of chance Miami is. If one or more of the Heat's top competitors run into a streak of bad luck, and if misfortune keeps its distance from South Beach, this aging group has a shot to grind its way through the playoffs.
Adebayo's status as a likely future All-NBA talent is a critical safety net. Miami's future will never be totally hopeless with him around—even if Lowry, Butler and Tucker all disappoint.
In the end, the Heat are doing what they've done for years: trusting their infrastructure, banking on known commodities and letting the future sort itself out. In a league full of teams with five-year plans and ever-growing hoards of incoming first-round picks, Miami's approach is refreshing.
And it might even work, too. If you're betting on a trio to fight off age with sheer force of will, Lowry, Butler and Tucker are solid picks.
Verdict: Buy