A look at the Clippers' possible playoff path in the west由卡哇伊爱小西瓜 发表在ClipsNation https://bbs.hupu.com/672
When the NBA season resumes in Orlando in late July, the Clippers will commence the eight-game regular-season slate as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
Western Conference standings
The Clippers currently have the inside track on securing the spot, as they are projected to have a relatively easy schedule and already hold a 1 1/2-game advantage over the Nuggets, a three-game advantage over the Jazz and a four-game advantage over the Thunder and the Rockets.
The rest of the West’s hierarchy isn’t clear. The No. 3 through No. 6 seeds are separated by just 2 1/2 games. There is a sizable gap between No. 7 Dallas and No. 8 Memphis, but seeds No. 9 through No. 12 (Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento and San Antonio) all are within four games of the Grizzlies. Only the No. 1 Lakers appear to be locked into their seeding.
The regular season will be critical to determining the final playoff seeding and matchups. Since the Clippers’ potential first- and second-round opponents are grouped too closely together to preview a specific team, let’s take a closer look at the most likely matchup in each round — assuming L.A. is fortunate enough to advance in this hypothetical exercise — with some secondary analysis of the alternative outcomes.
Western Conference first round
Most likely opponent: Mavericks
There are no easy first-round matchups in the West. And, as far as No. 7 seeds go, the Mavericks would be one of the toughest ones in recent memory.
The Mavericks’ plus-5.8 net rating ranks sixth in the NBA — ahead of every West team except the Clippers and the Lakers. They not only have the best offensive rating in the league by a considerable margin but also the best offensive rating of all time. Luka Doncic, a likely top-five finisher in the MVP race, is a magician with the ball. Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches of the modern era. Dallas’ second unit is deep and capable of hanging with L.A.’s reserves.
With that said, the Clippers are arguably the team best suited to contain a lead ballhandler like Doncic, especially in his first postseason appearance. With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris Sr. and even Rodney McGruder, who defended Doncic surprisingly well in the regular season, the Clippers have the bodies and versatility to throw a variety of looks, including switching across multiple positions.
Defensively, the Mavericks don’t have ideal defensive matchups for Leonard or George, who each should have their way in this series. Kristaps Porzingis is Dallas’ X-factor. If he can put up 20 and 10 like he’s capable of, this series could go longer than anticipated. But if he’s neutralized by the Clippers’ physicality on the wings and with their bigs and Doncic is Dallas’ only consistent weapon, then the Clippers should roll the Mavericks.
The Athletic Los Angeles previewed this series in March, when it seemed possible the NBA might return straight to the postseason with the current seedings. You can read more here about the offensive questions, defensive questions and a back-and-forth exchange with Mavericks reporter Tim Cato.
Other candidates: Rockets, Jazz, Thunder
The Lakers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and the rest of the No. 8-seed candidates are essentially ruled out as first-round opponents. Besides the Mavericks, the Clippers could face Houston, Utah or Oklahoma City.
The Rockets have the star power of James Harden and Russell Westbrook, and they tied the Clippers 2-2 in the season series. Their perimeter attack can force opponents into a track meet or 3-point shootout. Defensively, the Clippers don’t have much leeway. They were near-perfect in their 15-point blowout in Houston in early March. They’ll need that effort on a nightly basis in a hypothetical series. Even then, the Rockets are bound to have at least one or two games in which they stretch out the Clippers and drop 130-plus points. But as the Clippers showed in Houston, they can stay big against them, and the Rockets’ defense isn’t good enough to stop the league’s best offense since the trade deadline.
Utah is one of the worst matchups for the Clippers on paper, as the Jazz present matchup issues with Rudy Gobert’s interior dominance and Donovan Mitchell’s speed and penetration (if the Clippers have positional weaknesses against certain matchups, it’s probably centers and small scoring guards). The Jazz lost Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season, though, which is a considerable blow — enough to knock them down a peg or two. The Clippers also won’t have to travel to Salt Lake City, a hostile environment, and they would be favored, perhaps by a solid margin, but Utah is good.
Among a pool of less-than-ideal options, the Thunder might be the most ideal opponent. They wouldn’t be an easy out, but the Clippers have the personnel to match up reasonably well with Oklahoma City’s potent quartet of Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroeder. Many have compared these Thunder to last season’s Clippers — a tough, scrappy, overachieving bunch. There are some similarities, but OKC has more top-end talent and less depth. The Clippers lead the season series 2-1 and went into Oklahoma City and won by double-digits. I think they’d favor this matchup over the rest.
Kawhi Leonard scored 25 points in this March 3 game against the Thunder. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)
Western Conference semifinals
Most likely opponent: Nuggets
The Clippers split the season series 1-1 with Denver. Neither game was particularly close, with both teams cruising to double-digit victories at home. The first tilt saw the Clippers without George and the Nuggets without Paul Millsap. But in the second matchup, with both teams fully healthy, the Clippers crushed the Nuggets, embarrassing them to the point that Denver had a postgame team meeting.
It’s difficult to glean much from the two meetings — even if the Clippers are better at full strength, the Nuggets aren’t likely to play as poorly as they did at Staples Center again — but if we are to take more from one of the two games, it’s probably the latter.
Nikola Jokic is undoubtedly a matchup problem for the Clippers. His ability to post up, pop out and find shooters and cutters will ensure the Clippers have to give their best defensive effort. The Clippers will need vital minutes from Ivica Zubac in this matchup. This could also be a series in which Joakim Noah gets some burn, depending on how Zubac is playing and if the Clippers’ bigs are in foul trouble. Jamal Murray is a tough cover for the Clippers. Though they can stick a host of defenders on him, including Leonard or Beverley, a quick scoring guard who can operate on or off the ball is the type of player who can give this defense some problems.
On the other side, the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Leonard, who torched them in both contests. The Lou Williams-Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll also gave Denver’s second-unit defense a ton of problems. Some of the Nuggets’ best perimeter defenders — Torrey Craig, Gary Harris and Jerami Grant — are shaky shooters, allowing the Clippers to shade toward Jokic and Murray. Denver historically has been a difficult place to play, and the fact that the Clippers won’t have to play there is a plus that could favor them even more.
Other candidates: Rockets, Jazz
The Rockets are currently matched up against the Nuggets, and that would probably be a six- or seven-game series. They loom as a possible second-round opponent. The Jazz are the other option here if they slide to the No. 6 seed and defeat the Nuggets, which is certainly reasonable. I could be wrong, but I don’t see the Thunder defeating the Nuggets or making the second round.
Western Conference finals
Most likely opponent: Lakers
This is the series the NBA world has been waiting for all season. For some, it’s the real NBA Finals, with the winner likely to defeat whoever comes out of the East, including Milwaukee, the league’s best team. It won’t possess the same fireworks that a hallway series in Los Angeles would have, but it still would make for an iconic conference finals matchup.
The Clippers have the deeper team, with more versatility and offensive weapons. They arguably have the best player in the world in Leonard. Leonard, George and Doc Rivers all have a history with LeBron James. George could be a deciding factor because, after a poor Christmas Day performance, he figured out the Lakers’ defense in March and repeatedly attacked Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee. The Clippers will have to figure out Williams’ role in this matchup, including whether he can close games against a ruthless playmaker like James.
The Lakers’ star duo of James and Davis is the best tandem in the league, and the Lakers’ size gives them a physical advantage that historically has fared well in the postseason. The Lakers protect the rim, shoot the gaps in passing lanes and close out on shooters about as well as any defense in the league when they’re locked in. James has made the NBA Finals with much worse supporting casts. Davis has never been on a team this good or had a teammate like James. The question remains: Who’s the reliable third option on a nightly basis? Is it a rotating cast? Does it matter?
The Clippers didn’t play great — or even that well — in any of the three games against the Lakers. At some point, that matters. They’ll have to play better in September. Even so, they hold a 2-1 series lead and should feel confident if this matchup bears out, especially considering the shift from L.A. to a neutral setting.
Other candidates: Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz
It’s unlikely any of these teams beat the Lakers in the semifinals. It’s also unlikely Denver drops to the 4 vs. 5 matchup and faces the other L.A. in Round 2. If any of these three make it this far, that either means the Lakers suffered an injury or the opponent is playing at its absolute peak (that version of Houston is probably scariest).
That seems improbable, but given all of the uncertainty moving forward, we’re bound to have some variance in Orlando.
When the NBA season resumes in Orlando in late July, the Clippers will commence the eight-game regular-season slate as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
Western Conference standings
The Clippers currently have the inside track on securing the spot, as they are projected to have a relatively easy schedule and already hold a 1 1/2-game advantage over the Nuggets, a three-game advantage over the Jazz and a four-game advantage over the Thunder and the Rockets.
The rest of the West’s hierarchy isn’t clear. The No. 3 through No. 6 seeds are separated by just 2 1/2 games. There is a sizable gap between No. 7 Dallas and No. 8 Memphis, but seeds No. 9 through No. 12 (Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento and San Antonio) all are within four games of the Grizzlies. Only the No. 1 Lakers appear to be locked into their seeding.
The regular season will be critical to determining the final playoff seeding and matchups. Since the Clippers’ potential first- and second-round opponents are grouped too closely together to preview a specific team, let’s take a closer look at the most likely matchup in each round — assuming L.A. is fortunate enough to advance in this hypothetical exercise — with some secondary analysis of the alternative outcomes.
Western Conference first round
Most likely opponent: Mavericks
There are no easy first-round matchups in the West. And, as far as No. 7 seeds go, the Mavericks would be one of the toughest ones in recent memory.
The Mavericks’ plus-5.8 net rating ranks sixth in the NBA — ahead of every West team except the Clippers and the Lakers. They not only have the best offensive rating in the league by a considerable margin but also the best offensive rating of all time. Luka Doncic, a likely top-five finisher in the MVP race, is a magician with the ball. Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches of the modern era. Dallas’ second unit is deep and capable of hanging with L.A.’s reserves.
With that said, the Clippers are arguably the team best suited to contain a lead ballhandler like Doncic, especially in his first postseason appearance. With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris Sr. and even Rodney McGruder, who defended Doncic surprisingly well in the regular season, the Clippers have the bodies and versatility to throw a variety of looks, including switching across multiple positions.
Defensively, the Mavericks don’t have ideal defensive matchups for Leonard or George, who each should have their way in this series. Kristaps Porzingis is Dallas’ X-factor. If he can put up 20 and 10 like he’s capable of, this series could go longer than anticipated. But if he’s neutralized by the Clippers’ physicality on the wings and with their bigs and Doncic is Dallas’ only consistent weapon, then the Clippers should roll the Mavericks.
The Athletic Los Angeles previewed this series in March, when it seemed possible the NBA might return straight to the postseason with the current seedings. You can read more here about the offensive questions, defensive questions and a back-and-forth exchange with Mavericks reporter Tim Cato.
Other candidates: Rockets, Jazz, Thunder
The Lakers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and the rest of the No. 8-seed candidates are essentially ruled out as first-round opponents. Besides the Mavericks, the Clippers could face Houston, Utah or Oklahoma City.
The Rockets have the star power of James Harden and Russell Westbrook, and they tied the Clippers 2-2 in the season series. Their perimeter attack can force opponents into a track meet or 3-point shootout. Defensively, the Clippers don’t have much leeway. They were near-perfect in their 15-point blowout in Houston in early March. They’ll need that effort on a nightly basis in a hypothetical series. Even then, the Rockets are bound to have at least one or two games in which they stretch out the Clippers and drop 130-plus points. But as the Clippers showed in Houston, they can stay big against them, and the Rockets’ defense isn’t good enough to stop the league’s best offense since the trade deadline.
Utah is one of the worst matchups for the Clippers on paper, as the Jazz present matchup issues with Rudy Gobert’s interior dominance and Donovan Mitchell’s speed and penetration (if the Clippers have positional weaknesses against certain matchups, it’s probably centers and small scoring guards). The Jazz lost Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season, though, which is a considerable blow — enough to knock them down a peg or two. The Clippers also won’t have to travel to Salt Lake City, a hostile environment, and they would be favored, perhaps by a solid margin, but Utah is good.
Among a pool of less-than-ideal options, the Thunder might be the most ideal opponent. They wouldn’t be an easy out, but the Clippers have the personnel to match up reasonably well with Oklahoma City’s potent quartet of Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroeder. Many have compared these Thunder to last season’s Clippers — a tough, scrappy, overachieving bunch. There are some similarities, but OKC has more top-end talent and less depth. The Clippers lead the season series 2-1 and went into Oklahoma City and won by double-digits. I think they’d favor this matchup over the rest.
Kawhi Leonard scored 25 points in this March 3 game against the Thunder. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)
Western Conference semifinals
Most likely opponent: Nuggets
The Clippers split the season series 1-1 with Denver. Neither game was particularly close, with both teams cruising to double-digit victories at home. The first tilt saw the Clippers without George and the Nuggets without Paul Millsap. But in the second matchup, with both teams fully healthy, the Clippers crushed the Nuggets, embarrassing them to the point that Denver had a postgame team meeting.
It’s difficult to glean much from the two meetings — even if the Clippers are better at full strength, the Nuggets aren’t likely to play as poorly as they did at Staples Center again — but if we are to take more from one of the two games, it’s probably the latter.
Nikola Jokic is undoubtedly a matchup problem for the Clippers. His ability to post up, pop out and find shooters and cutters will ensure the Clippers have to give their best defensive effort. The Clippers will need vital minutes from Ivica Zubac in this matchup. This could also be a series in which Joakim Noah gets some burn, depending on how Zubac is playing and if the Clippers’ bigs are in foul trouble. Jamal Murray is a tough cover for the Clippers. Though they can stick a host of defenders on him, including Leonard or Beverley, a quick scoring guard who can operate on or off the ball is the type of player who can give this defense some problems.
On the other side, the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Leonard, who torched them in both contests. The Lou Williams-Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll also gave Denver’s second-unit defense a ton of problems. Some of the Nuggets’ best perimeter defenders — Torrey Craig, Gary Harris and Jerami Grant — are shaky shooters, allowing the Clippers to shade toward Jokic and Murray. Denver historically has been a difficult place to play, and the fact that the Clippers won’t have to play there is a plus that could favor them even more.
Other candidates: Rockets, Jazz
The Rockets are currently matched up against the Nuggets, and that would probably be a six- or seven-game series. They loom as a possible second-round opponent. The Jazz are the other option here if they slide to the No. 6 seed and defeat the Nuggets, which is certainly reasonable. I could be wrong, but I don’t see the Thunder defeating the Nuggets or making the second round.
Western Conference finals
Most likely opponent: Lakers
This is the series the NBA world has been waiting for all season. For some, it’s the real NBA Finals, with the winner likely to defeat whoever comes out of the East, including Milwaukee, the league’s best team. It won’t possess the same fireworks that a hallway series in Los Angeles would have, but it still would make for an iconic conference finals matchup.
The Clippers have the deeper team, with more versatility and offensive weapons. They arguably have the best player in the world in Leonard. Leonard, George and Doc Rivers all have a history with LeBron James. George could be a deciding factor because, after a poor Christmas Day performance, he figured out the Lakers’ defense in March and repeatedly attacked Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee. The Clippers will have to figure out Williams’ role in this matchup, including whether he can close games against a ruthless playmaker like James.
The Lakers’ star duo of James and Davis is the best tandem in the league, and the Lakers’ size gives them a physical advantage that historically has fared well in the postseason. The Lakers protect the rim, shoot the gaps in passing lanes and close out on shooters about as well as any defense in the league when they’re locked in. James has made the NBA Finals with much worse supporting casts. Davis has never been on a team this good or had a teammate like James. The question remains: Who’s the reliable third option on a nightly basis? Is it a rotating cast? Does it matter?
The Clippers didn’t play great — or even that well — in any of the three games against the Lakers. At some point, that matters. They’ll have to play better in September. Even so, they hold a 2-1 series lead and should feel confident if this matchup bears out, especially considering the shift from L.A. to a neutral setting.
Other candidates: Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz
It’s unlikely any of these teams beat the Lakers in the semifinals. It’s also unlikely Denver drops to the 4 vs. 5 matchup and faces the other L.A. in Round 2. If any of these three make it this far, that either means the Lakers suffered an injury or the opponent is playing at its absolute peak (that version of Houston is probably scariest).
That seems improbable, but given all of the uncertainty moving forward, we’re bound to have some variance in Orlando.
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