Projecting the Clippers' future, Part 2:Rost upgrades and title expectations由卡哇伊爱小西瓜 发表在ClipsNation https://bbs.hupu.com/672
In Part 1 of my conversation about the Clippers’ future with John Hollinger, the former Memphis Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations who is now a national NBA writer at The Athletic, we discussed the pressure on the Clippers to make a deep playoff run before Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can hit free agency in 2021, the importance of re-signing Montrezl Harrell and/or Marcus Morris Sr. and the alternatives in free agency if they sign elsewhere.
Jovan Buha: Following the All-Star break, the Clippers were 7-2, including blowout wins over the Nuggets and Rockets, with a league-best +11.5 net rating. Reggie Jackson was acclimating well to the second unit, JaMychal Green was playing more small-ball five — a lineup Doc Rivers loves — and, most importantly, Leonard and George were playing their best basketball of the season together. The Clippers were finally hitting their stride before the season was put on hold.
This question might be addressed with the results of the upcoming postseason, but what do you think the Clippers’ roster needs moving forward, if anything? Assuming they’re able to re-sign both Harrell and Morris or find a respectable alternative with their non-taxpayer mid-level exception if one of the two walks in free agency, what’s their best avenue for progress next season?
There aren’t many candidates for internal improvement. The Clippers can’t trade any of their future first-round picks until the 2021 NBA Draft at the earliest. They have a $3.57 million trade exception from the Jerome Robinson trade, but that probably won’t net them much. An aging Lou Williams (making $8 million as an expiring contract in 2020-21) could theoretically have some value on the trade market. However, it’ll be difficult to find similar offensive value at that price point, and the Clippers need him to orchestrate the bench’s offense.
Do you see any non-health concerns that they need to address with next season’s projected roster? Or do you think they can stand pat due to their depth, most of their roster being in its prime and the lack of flexibility asset-wise?
John Hollinger: The Clippers are one of the teams most likely to stand pat. If they re-sign Harrell and Morris and Green opts in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the only additions to the team be a second-round draft pick and a minimum-contract point guard to replace Jackson. I suspect they’ll only carry 14 players for most of next season to minimize the tax hit, and that the 14th player will be the second-rounder on a rookie minimum.
Because of the George trade, the Clippers can’t trade a first-round pick until long after California falls into the Pacific, so that option is out the window. The only young player with asset value is Landry Shamet, but he fits really well as a shooter around Leonard and George. His rookie-scale contract also is doubly valuable on a team so far into the tax. I’m guessing the Clippers would like to see Mfiondu Kabengele get a bit more run next year and see if he can turn into a positive trade asset.
The Clippers also have the Robinson trade exception, but even if a player came available with a low enough salary to squeeze into it, it will cost the Clippers roughly four times as much because of their tax position. I think it likely expires unused.
The one guy I could see being part of a trade package is Rodney McGruder, who never gained traction in his first full season with the Clips and is owed $5,192,307 next year. Moving him could save the Clippers a boatload of tax money and possibly increase their willingness to use some or all of their taxpayer MLE. Alas, without picks to trade, Kabengele is the only real bait the Clippers have to persuade a team to take McGruder, and I don’t think he has a ton of value around the league right now.
Buha: To bring this conversation full circle, with the announcement of the 2019-20 season plans likely coming within the next week or so, has your opinion on the Clippers’ chances of winning the 2020 title shifted from your initial preseason expectations?
As someone who caught multiple games in L.A. this season, did their regular-season performance — as well as the midseason additions of Morris and Jackson — swing your opinion at all? And, if so, why?
Hollinger: (Goes back and looks at preseason picks.) I had the Clippers as slight favorites to win the West but figured they would only grab the second or third seed, so everything still seems right on target.
We don’t know how exactly the league will set up the playoff structure, but all signs during the regular season pointed to a Staples Center showdown in the Western Conference finals. And despite the fact that the Lakers had a better regular-season record, I like the playoff version of the Clippers better. The Clips knew they had to manage Leonard through the regular season, and George missed time as well. But the fully-loaded version of this team is a bear, with the ability to play big or small and roll with offense or defense depending on the situation.
In particular, I think the addition of Morris really helps their ability to play a “big small” lineup that has George, Leonard and Morris across the 2-3-4 spots. That team is much more stout defensively than playing with George, Leonard and two guards, especially if Williams is one of the guards, but still has a ton of shooting and shot creation.
Around that, the Clippers have three completely different weapons to roll out at the five depending on the situation in Ivica Zubac, Green and Harrell. They then could go with Williams’ shot creation, Shamet’s shooting or Patrick Beverley’s defense at the guard spot. I don’t really see Jackson playing much once they tighten rotations in the playoffs, but he’s good injury insurance.
As far as winning it all, that’s where it gets tougher. There’s one huge obstacle. The Bucks were awesome this season. Leonard got the better of Giannis Antetokounmpo in last year’s conference finals, but I would argue that his supporting cast in Toronto was even better than this one. Also, this year’s version of the Bucks looks even more imposing.
I would still pick Milwaukee to win it all, but I think the Clippers have the next-best chance.
In Part 1 of my conversation about the Clippers’ future with John Hollinger, the former Memphis Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations who is now a national NBA writer at The Athletic, we discussed the pressure on the Clippers to make a deep playoff run before Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can hit free agency in 2021, the importance of re-signing Montrezl Harrell and/or Marcus Morris Sr. and the alternatives in free agency if they sign elsewhere.
Jovan Buha: Following the All-Star break, the Clippers were 7-2, including blowout wins over the Nuggets and Rockets, with a league-best +11.5 net rating. Reggie Jackson was acclimating well to the second unit, JaMychal Green was playing more small-ball five — a lineup Doc Rivers loves — and, most importantly, Leonard and George were playing their best basketball of the season together. The Clippers were finally hitting their stride before the season was put on hold.
This question might be addressed with the results of the upcoming postseason, but what do you think the Clippers’ roster needs moving forward, if anything? Assuming they’re able to re-sign both Harrell and Morris or find a respectable alternative with their non-taxpayer mid-level exception if one of the two walks in free agency, what’s their best avenue for progress next season?
There aren’t many candidates for internal improvement. The Clippers can’t trade any of their future first-round picks until the 2021 NBA Draft at the earliest. They have a $3.57 million trade exception from the Jerome Robinson trade, but that probably won’t net them much. An aging Lou Williams (making $8 million as an expiring contract in 2020-21) could theoretically have some value on the trade market. However, it’ll be difficult to find similar offensive value at that price point, and the Clippers need him to orchestrate the bench’s offense.
Do you see any non-health concerns that they need to address with next season’s projected roster? Or do you think they can stand pat due to their depth, most of their roster being in its prime and the lack of flexibility asset-wise?
John Hollinger: The Clippers are one of the teams most likely to stand pat. If they re-sign Harrell and Morris and Green opts in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the only additions to the team be a second-round draft pick and a minimum-contract point guard to replace Jackson. I suspect they’ll only carry 14 players for most of next season to minimize the tax hit, and that the 14th player will be the second-rounder on a rookie minimum.
Because of the George trade, the Clippers can’t trade a first-round pick until long after California falls into the Pacific, so that option is out the window. The only young player with asset value is Landry Shamet, but he fits really well as a shooter around Leonard and George. His rookie-scale contract also is doubly valuable on a team so far into the tax. I’m guessing the Clippers would like to see Mfiondu Kabengele get a bit more run next year and see if he can turn into a positive trade asset.
The Clippers also have the Robinson trade exception, but even if a player came available with a low enough salary to squeeze into it, it will cost the Clippers roughly four times as much because of their tax position. I think it likely expires unused.
The one guy I could see being part of a trade package is Rodney McGruder, who never gained traction in his first full season with the Clips and is owed $5,192,307 next year. Moving him could save the Clippers a boatload of tax money and possibly increase their willingness to use some or all of their taxpayer MLE. Alas, without picks to trade, Kabengele is the only real bait the Clippers have to persuade a team to take McGruder, and I don’t think he has a ton of value around the league right now.
Buha: To bring this conversation full circle, with the announcement of the 2019-20 season plans likely coming within the next week or so, has your opinion on the Clippers’ chances of winning the 2020 title shifted from your initial preseason expectations?
As someone who caught multiple games in L.A. this season, did their regular-season performance — as well as the midseason additions of Morris and Jackson — swing your opinion at all? And, if so, why?
Hollinger: (Goes back and looks at preseason picks.) I had the Clippers as slight favorites to win the West but figured they would only grab the second or third seed, so everything still seems right on target.
We don’t know how exactly the league will set up the playoff structure, but all signs during the regular season pointed to a Staples Center showdown in the Western Conference finals. And despite the fact that the Lakers had a better regular-season record, I like the playoff version of the Clippers better. The Clips knew they had to manage Leonard through the regular season, and George missed time as well. But the fully-loaded version of this team is a bear, with the ability to play big or small and roll with offense or defense depending on the situation.
In particular, I think the addition of Morris really helps their ability to play a “big small” lineup that has George, Leonard and Morris across the 2-3-4 spots. That team is much more stout defensively than playing with George, Leonard and two guards, especially if Williams is one of the guards, but still has a ton of shooting and shot creation.
Around that, the Clippers have three completely different weapons to roll out at the five depending on the situation in Ivica Zubac, Green and Harrell. They then could go with Williams’ shot creation, Shamet’s shooting or Patrick Beverley’s defense at the guard spot. I don’t really see Jackson playing much once they tighten rotations in the playoffs, but he’s good injury insurance.
As far as winning it all, that’s where it gets tougher. There’s one huge obstacle. The Bucks were awesome this season. Leonard got the better of Giannis Antetokounmpo in last year’s conference finals, but I would argue that his supporting cast in Toronto was even better than this one. Also, this year’s version of the Bucks looks even more imposing.
I would still pick Milwaukee to win it all, but I think the Clippers have the next-best chance.
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