Jayson Tatum is leaving the midrange behind to make the leap to stardom

Things are going downhill for Jayson Tatum this season, just as he hoped.

He had already proven he could be a slippery side-to-side player who can go deep into his bag to step around a defender and get his shot off. But the next step for Tatum has been learning to attack straight ahead, going past and even through defenders to get to the rim. Conversely, he is cleaning up his inefficient and sometimes out-of-control midrange game to maximize the value of his deep shot.

Through five games, Tatum is living the “3s and layups” mantra he repeated throughout training camp well enough to average 22 points on 20 shots a game. Last year he was at 15.7 points on 13.1 field goal attempts, but the wing has nearly doubled his volume of 3s and has seen his usage rate increase by almost five basis points. The offense is flowing through him much more organically and he is finding ways to maximize the opportunity.

Coming into the draft, the concern in his scouting report was that Tatum was capped out as a long midrange shooter. In his rookie season, he shocked the league by thriving in a spot-up role from behind the arc and continued to shoot well even when injuries forced him into primary scorer duties. But last season saw a regression back toward those inefficient long 2s, the one shot that can’t exist in a modern offense.

There is a lot of hand wringing over 15-foot pull-ups and other shots that classify as “midrange,” but those shots aren’t the problem. Tatum has found ways to use that shot to score when the defense loads up on him or even keep them honest when centers sit back on him. But he has almost completely removed the 20-footer from his game by persistently going to his dramatically improved side-step shot, most recently seen winning the game against the Knicks. In fact, that game winner was one of just two non 3-pointers in the 20-foot zone Tatum has taken this year, and that is only because he had a foot on the line.

Tatum has taken 39 shots from at least 20 feet in the first five games and 33 of them were either step backs, side steps or attempts coming around a screen. He has taken a tremendous leap as a scorer by simply not taking that extra step forward. Tatum is actually fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts among frontcourt players, trailing just point forward Luka Doncic among wings who actually handle the ball as a part of their role.

Last year, when a close-out defender tried to run him off the line, he would step into a 20-footer half the time — to the dismay of just about everyone in the organization. If he attacked in isolation, he would revert to a contested step back or turnaround fade from the same spot instead of just fighting through contact or passing. But comparing his shot tracks from even his best game in the Milwaukee series in May to the Bucks game last week, the changes are drastic.

The most apparent difference is how compact his movements are along the arc, as he is simplifying how he avoids the defender with a quick side step or moving right into a downhill attack. The irony is that he attacked the Bucks’ funneling defensive scheme last year by trying to cut around it or work the angles. But now he is more willing to go straight ahead through the paint and get to the rim. Even as his shooting volume increases, he continues to abide by that golden Moreyball ratio.

So now that he is making the right decisions at star-level usage, what is the next hurdle to clear? Coming up as a prospect, Tatum’s game always worked from the middle third of the court and he has done a good job expanding at both ends of the spectrum. But while his skill set is much more refined on the perimeter, his growth as a finisher is coming at a slower pace. He has been great at using subtle movements instead of large demonstrative dribble moves to create his separation, but at times he forgets this and still rushes when he gets into the paint.

“One of the things we’re trying to emphasize is, just be patient to seek great,” said Celtics coach Brad Stevens. “At the same time, we can’t give up some things that are really in a guy’s wheelhouse.”

If Tatum can start to embrace the jump stop, ball fakes and other change-of-pace moves, he can start drawing fouls at a star rate. He is great at using his up-and-over move to get the ball away from perimeter defenders and launch himself into the drive, but hardly uses it to get by his man in the paint. Instead of going body to body with centers, he is still using his length to sneak under their arms and flip up a finger roll. That’s why even with more drives to his game, he’s still averaging the same 3.2 free throws a game he tallied his rookie year.

This is a true process-over-results situation, though. There are some new shots he is introducing that aren’t falling yet, but the law of averages is going to apply a lot more reliably to layups than from deep. As he gets used to the contact and timing, he’ll find his angles and become a better finisher in that final third of the floor.

“Just attack more,” Tatum said. “Keep expanding, try different things.”