Since 1980, there has not been a point guard selected in the top 3 who was a bust (self.nba)
从1980年之后,在前三顺位被选中的控卫没有水货
因为今年的选秀前三顺位很有可能都是控球后卫。所以我决定回顾一下过去这些年的选秀,看一下过去选秀时候差不多的情况。有点奇怪的是,纵观历史,控卫打出来的概率好像是最高的,咱们来回顾一下从1980年之后在前三顺位选中的控卫们,1980年大概就是三分线被投入使用的年份。
2015年
拉塞尔-还太早,现在看起来还可以
2011年
欧文-4届全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,NBA总冠军
2010年:
沃尔-四届NBA全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,NBA第二最佳阵容
2009年
哈登-5届全明星,4次NBA最佳阵容,最佳第六人,联盟助攻王
2008年:
罗斯:3届全明星,NBA最佳阵容,2011年NBA常规赛MVP
2005年
德隆威廉姆斯-3届全明星,2届NBA最佳阵容
2002年:
杰威廉姆斯-在一个看起来还不错的新秀赛季之后,立刻遭遇了几乎致命同时也终结了他职业生涯的摩托车事故。不是传统意义上的水货
1999年:
弗朗西斯-最佳新秀,3届全明星
巴朗戴维斯-2届全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,两届NBA抢断王
1998年:
毕比:没有什么特别显眼的个人荣誉,但是是为当时那只非常优秀的国王效力的,NBA全明星边缘球员,有多个场均20+的赛季
1997年
比卢普斯-5届全明星,3届NBA最佳阵容,2届最佳防守阵容,NBA冠军
1996年
阿伦艾弗森-11届全明星,7届NBA最佳阵容,2001年NBA常规赛MVP,4届得分王,年度最佳新秀,名人堂成员
1994年
基德-10届NBA全明星,6届NBA最佳阵容,9届最佳防守阵容,5次助攻王,NBA总冠军
1993年
哈达威-4届NBA全明星,3届NBA最佳阵容
1991年
肯尼安德森-全明星
1990年
加里佩顿-9届全明星,9届最佳阵容,9届最佳防守阵容,年度最佳防守球员,NBA冠军,抢断王,和名人堂成员。
拉乌夫-最快进步球员,2次NBA单赛季罚球命中率最高,巅峰打出过19+7的表现
1981年
以赛亚托马斯-12届全明星,5届最佳阵容,2个总冠军,总决赛MVP,常规赛助攻王,名人堂成员
今年选秀控卫这么多,而且控卫还不怎么容易出现水货,想想就觉得很有意思。其他的每个位置,基本都有一些让人印象深刻的被前三位选中的水货。
Since it's entirely possible that the top three picks in this year's draft are all point guards, I decided to go back through drafts of years past to take a look at their historical counterparts. Oddly enough, throughout history, it appears that point guards have the highest rate of panning out. Let's take a look at all the point guards drafted top 3 since 1980, around the addition of the three-point line.
2015:
D'Angelo Russell - too early to tell, looks pretty good so far
2011:
Kyrie Irving - 4x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, NBA Champion
2010:
John Wall - 4x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, All-Defense Second Team
2009:
James Harden - 5x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, 6MOTY, League Assist Leader
2008:
Derrick Rose - 3x All-Star, All-NBA First Team, 2011 NBA MVP
2005:
Deron Williams - 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA
2002:
Jay Williams - career-ending near-fatal motorcycle accident immediately following a promising rookie year. Not a "bust" in the traditional sense.
1999:
Steve Francis - Rookie of the Year, 3x All-Star
Baron Davis - 2x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, 2x NBA Steals Leader
1998:
Mike Bibby - No notable accolades, but was a borderline All-Star on a very good Kings team and averaged over 20 ppg for multiple seasons
1997:
Chauncey Billups - 5x All-Star, 3x All-NBA, 2x All-Defense, NBA Champion
1996:
Allen Iverson - 11x All-Star, 7x All-NBA, 2001 NBA MVP, 4x Scoring Champ, Rookie of the Year, Hall of Famer
1994:
Jason Kidd - 10x All-Star, 6x All-NBA, 9x All-Defense, 5x Assists Leader, NBA Champion
1993:
Penny Hardaway - 4x All-Star, 3x All-NBA
1991:
Kenny Anderson - All-Star
1990:
Gary Payton - 9x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, 9x All-Defense, DPOY, NBA Champion, steals leader, Hall of Fame
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf - Most Improved Player, 2x Free-Throw % Leader, put up 19/7 in his prime
1981:
Isiah Thomas - 12x All-Star, 5x All-NBA, 2x NBA Champion, Finals MVP, Assists Leader, Hall of Fame
Just thought it was interesting with such a point-guard heavy draft coming up that there have been no notable busts at the position. Every other position has had some memorable flame-outs in the top 3.
[–]Bullsnowandlater 919 points 1 day ago
That's actually crazy.
这还挺疯狂的。
[–]76ersbarry_jive 234 points 1 day ago
not that crazy when you consider how valuable size is. someone like Anthony Davis has guard-level skills but the size of a center. so if you're taking a guard top 3, they better be really freaking good. Steve Francis, for example, isn't a "bust" per se, but his career is a bit underwhelming comparatively.
考虑到身材有多么重要实际上就还没那么疯狂。有像安东尼戴维斯这样的有控卫技术和中锋身材的人存在,所以如果你在前三选中一名后卫,他们最好是真的很厉害。弗朗西斯,举个例子,就不是一个传统意义上的水货,但是他的生涯相比较起来就不是那么让人印象深刻了。
[–][HOU] Steve Francisjg1026 293 points 1 day ago
Steve Francis may have had a short prime, but in no way at his best was he underwhelming. He was traded for T-Mac for a reason because they seemed like equal assets
弗朗西斯可能巅峰很短,但是他最强的时候,绝对不是让人失望的。他能被拿去交易麦迪是因为他们两个的价值在当时被视作是等价的。
[–]Lakers Bandwagon_chadwell_ 154 points 1 day ago
He was on the cover of NBA Live 2002!
他是NBA live 2002的封面人物!
[–][GSW] Carl LandryMichael_Scott_Paper 74 points 1 day ago
Seriously. I'll always remember behind all the hype of Shaq and Yao's first matchup, Francis had something like 44p and 11a.
讲真,我总是记得姚鲨第一次对决大家都在大力吹捧,然后弗朗西斯砍下了大概44分和11个助攻
[–]thejunesun 71 points 1 day ago
I never liked Francis's game, but he wasn't a bust at all and wasn't "underwhelming".
If you are comparing him to AI, IT the 1st, and Gary Payton sure... 99% of NBA players are underwhelming compared to obvious HOF talent.
我从来都不喜欢弗朗西斯,但是他绝对不是水货,而且也不至于说给人一点印象也留不下。
如果你把他拿来和艾弗森,老托马斯,以及加里佩顿来比,那行吧……99%的NBA球员跟这三个很明显的名人堂级球员比起来,都不怎么让人印象深刻。
[–]CelticsIfuckinglovebball[S] 591 points 1 day ago
Just as a summary, of the 17 top-3 picked point guards from before 2015:
-14/17 have been All-Stars
-12/17 have made All-NBA Teams
总结一下,2015年之前的17个在前三位被选中的控球后卫里:
-17个里有14个入选过全明星
-17个里有12个进入过NBA最佳阵容
[–]Cavaliers BandwagonTmwill87 138 points 1 day ago
Do you know the numbers for the non-pgs taken top 3? I'm curious to see their numbers compared to point guards
那你有前三顺位里选中的非控卫的数据么?我很好奇这个数据跟控卫的数据比起来会是什么样子
[–]Sunsscooper1030 97 points 1 day ago*
Not related to this specific study but I remember a bunch of years back I looked at the drafts from 1989-2008 because I was curious. At that time it was like 2012 or 2013 or something, I didn't study any past 2008 because I was looking at how often players become All-Stars based on draft slot and didn't want to include any players still on rookie contracts so that they had more time to grow into themselves.
Based on drafts 1989-2008:
57% of top three picks make at least one All-Star appearance
51% of top five picks make at least one All-Star appearance
20% of picks 6-10 become All-Stars
10% of picks 11-14 become All-stars
Total success rate for lottery picks: 79/280, or 28%
Again we're not dealing with the same sample size as OP so the dataset is flawed, but based on just the years 1989-2008 it looks like 10/13 PGs became All-Stars (77%), which is better than our overall rate of 57%. And just doing a little math and deducting those PGs from the pool, that would make our non-PG All-Star rate for top three picks during that interval 51% (24-47).
并不是跟主楼的研究有什么关系,但我记得不少年前,回看1989-2008年选秀的时候我就很好奇。当时好像是2012年还是2013年,我没有研究2008年之后的年份因为我在看球员成为全明星的概率,不太想包含进那些还处在新秀合同的球员,这样他们还有更多的时间最终成型。
基于1989-2008年的数据:
前三顺位里有57%最少入选过一次全明星,
前五顺位里有51%最少入选过一次全明星
6-10顺位里有20%成为了全明星
11-14顺位里有10%成为了全明星
乐透秀整体来看成为全明星的概率是:79/280,或者说28%
再重申一遍,我的样本数量跟楼主的不一样,所以数据会有一点缺陷,但是基于1989-2008年的数据,前三顺位的13个控卫里有10个成为了全明星(77%),这比整体的概率要高。再减去这些控卫,我们可以得到前三顺位非控卫位置的球员成为全明星的概率为51%(24/47)
[–][OKC] Steven Adamsskratsda 49 points 1 day ago
I'm imagine this discrepancy has mostly to do with production vs. potential. When you're drafting a point guard, you're drafting a player who is already a rough version of the player they're always going to be. They've probably been at least relatively close to the same height for a few years, and have a fairly refined skillset; you don't draft a point guard hoping to teach them how to shoot or pass.
When you're drafting a big man, often they're only been at that height for a couple years and you're hoping they can develop into a certain player. Wings fall somewhere in the middle between the two.
我觉得这个差距跟产出潜力之间的关系有关。当你选择控卫的时候,你选到的球员已经是他们未来样子的粗糙版了。他们可能处于同一个身高有几年的时间了,技术也相对成熟。你不会选择一个控卫然后再教他们如何去投篮,如何去传球吧。
当你选择一个大个子球员的时候,他们可能才刚达到自己现在的身高没几年,然后你会希望他们发展成为某个特定的形态。而侧翼球员有点像是这二者之间。
[–][BOS] Marcus Smarthenryisyourboss 454 points 1 day ago
It's because guard play is generally based around skill more then other positions
因为控卫这个位置比起其他的位置要更忠于技术一些。
[–]msixtwofive 225 points 1 day ago
PGs are also not given the "has a high growth ceiling" nonsense other positions get. They'll take a guy thats huge and feel like they can teach him to not have a terrible shot and bad decision making. They would never say that about a PG.
控卫没有得到其他位置会得到诸如“上限很高”这种没有道理的话。有的球队会选一个大个子,然后觉得可以教会他不要有糟糕的投篮选择,和糟糕的球场判断。但是从来不会有人对控卫这样。
[–]JustAddZebras 70 points 1 day ago
then eventually the big unskilled guy get so good they can run point... Antetokounmpo, Kawhi, maybe more...
最终,大只但是技术不行的球员会变得非常优秀,可以承担起打组织的重任…… 比如阿德托昆博和伦纳德,将来可能还有更多这样的球员
[–]msixtwofive 165 points 1 day ago
for every one of those there's been tons of failures.
每一个伦纳德这样的成功者背后,都有无穷无尽失败了的例子。
[–]cuteshyguy 86 points 1 day ago
Big men had more value back then
大个子在过去更有价值
[–]NBAyosisoy 58 points 1 day ago
Exactly. Top draft picks were typically big men, so if a PG was drafted above bigs they probably were considered really good prospects.
是的,高顺位一般都是大个子球员,如果有控卫先于大个子被选中,那他们估计被视作是前景非常优秀的球员了。
[–]Trail Blazersjohnsom3 171 points 1 day ago*
It's virtually impossible to get the NBA as a guard not being thoroughly battled tested. Players like Russel and Ball have been known quantities ever since they were freshman in high school. There isn't a scenario that scouts havent seen them perform in. So the chances of a guard getting all the way to the draft and "fooling" scouts is virtually impossible.
Bigs and late blooming wings will always be a massive gamble coupled with massive reward. You have to speculate on them more than guards because chances are they never played in a system that was built around their strengths, or they are still extremely raw.
作为后卫,想要不经受残酷的竞争进入NBA?不存在的。像拉塞尔和鲍尔(Ball)这样的球员从高中一年级开始就受到了非常大量的关注。球探几乎看遍了他们在每种场合下的应变方式。所以控卫想要进入选秀然后“蒙骗过”球探的可能性几乎是不存在的。
但大个子球员和大器晚成的侧翼球员,就是风险和回报都会很高的赌博。较之于控卫,你需要更多的推测他们将来的表现,因为很有可能他们从来没有在一个围绕他们强项打造的体系里打过球,或者说他们的技术还非常粗糙。
[–][CHI] Doug McDermottDontreachyoungbloods 78 points 1 day ago
Not only that, but nobody is going to "take a chance" on a small guard with a top 3 pick unless they have proven themselves time and time and time again.
Because the NBA's version of "potential" usually has to do with speed, length, size, and athleticism, point guards are much less likely to be high picks based on their "potential." That means the top picked point guards are almost always close to sure things.
不光这些,而且没有人会拿前三顺位去赌一个小后卫,除非他们已经一次又一次的证明了自己。
因为NBA眼中的“潜力”一般都会和速度,长度,体格以及运动能力有关。而控卫如果在高顺位被选中很少会是因为他们的潜力。这就意味着,拿高顺位选控球后卫的时候,基本就是已经板上钉钉了。
翻译:@不剩菜
Since 1980, there has not been a point guard selected in the top 3 who was a bust (self.nba)
从1980年之后,在前三顺位被选中的控卫没有水货
因为今年的选秀前三顺位很有可能都是控球后卫。所以我决定回顾一下过去这些年的选秀,看一下过去选秀时候差不多的情况。有点奇怪的是,纵观历史,控卫打出来的概率好像是最高的,咱们来回顾一下从1980年之后在前三顺位选中的控卫们,1980年大概就是三分线被投入使用的年份。
2015年
拉塞尔-还太早,现在看起来还可以
2011年
欧文-4届全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,NBA总冠军
2010年:
沃尔-四届NBA全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,NBA第二最佳阵容
2009年
哈登-5届全明星,4次NBA最佳阵容,最佳第六人,联盟助攻王
2008年:
罗斯:3届全明星,NBA最佳阵容,2011年NBA常规赛MVP
2005年
德隆威廉姆斯-3届全明星,2届NBA最佳阵容
2002年:
杰威廉姆斯-在一个看起来还不错的新秀赛季之后,立刻遭遇了几乎致命同时也终结了他职业生涯的摩托车事故。不是传统意义上的水货
1999年:
弗朗西斯-最佳新秀,3届全明星
巴朗戴维斯-2届全明星,NBA第三最佳阵容,两届NBA抢断王
1998年:
毕比:没有什么特别显眼的个人荣誉,但是是为当时那只非常优秀的国王效力的,NBA全明星边缘球员,有多个场均20+的赛季
1997年
比卢普斯-5届全明星,3届NBA最佳阵容,2届最佳防守阵容,NBA冠军
1996年
阿伦艾弗森-11届全明星,7届NBA最佳阵容,2001年NBA常规赛MVP,4届得分王,年度最佳新秀,名人堂成员
1994年
基德-10届NBA全明星,6届NBA最佳阵容,9届最佳防守阵容,5次助攻王,NBA总冠军
1993年
哈达威-4届NBA全明星,3届NBA最佳阵容
1991年
肯尼安德森-全明星
1990年
加里佩顿-9届全明星,9届最佳阵容,9届最佳防守阵容,年度最佳防守球员,NBA冠军,抢断王,和名人堂成员。
拉乌夫-最快进步球员,2次NBA单赛季罚球命中率最高,巅峰打出过19+7的表现
1981年
以赛亚托马斯-12届全明星,5届最佳阵容,2个总冠军,总决赛MVP,常规赛助攻王,名人堂成员
今年选秀控卫这么多,而且控卫还不怎么容易出现水货,想想就觉得很有意思。其他的每个位置,基本都有一些让人印象深刻的被前三位选中的水货。
Since it's entirely possible that the top three picks in this year's draft are all point guards, I decided to go back through drafts of years past to take a look at their historical counterparts. Oddly enough, throughout history, it appears that point guards have the highest rate of panning out. Let's take a look at all the point guards drafted top 3 since 1980, around the addition of the three-point line.
2015:
D'Angelo Russell - too early to tell, looks pretty good so far
2011:
Kyrie Irving - 4x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, NBA Champion
2010:
John Wall - 4x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, All-Defense Second Team
2009:
James Harden - 5x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, 6MOTY, League Assist Leader
2008:
Derrick Rose - 3x All-Star, All-NBA First Team, 2011 NBA MVP
2005:
Deron Williams - 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA
2002:
Jay Williams - career-ending near-fatal motorcycle accident immediately following a promising rookie year. Not a "bust" in the traditional sense.
1999:
Steve Francis - Rookie of the Year, 3x All-Star
Baron Davis - 2x All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, 2x NBA Steals Leader
1998:
Mike Bibby - No notable accolades, but was a borderline All-Star on a very good Kings team and averaged over 20 ppg for multiple seasons
1997:
Chauncey Billups - 5x All-Star, 3x All-NBA, 2x All-Defense, NBA Champion
1996:
Allen Iverson - 11x All-Star, 7x All-NBA, 2001 NBA MVP, 4x Scoring Champ, Rookie of the Year, Hall of Famer
1994:
Jason Kidd - 10x All-Star, 6x All-NBA, 9x All-Defense, 5x Assists Leader, NBA Champion
1993:
Penny Hardaway - 4x All-Star, 3x All-NBA
1991:
Kenny Anderson - All-Star
1990:
Gary Payton - 9x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, 9x All-Defense, DPOY, NBA Champion, steals leader, Hall of Fame
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf - Most Improved Player, 2x Free-Throw % Leader, put up 19/7 in his prime
1981:
Isiah Thomas - 12x All-Star, 5x All-NBA, 2x NBA Champion, Finals MVP, Assists Leader, Hall of Fame
Just thought it was interesting with such a point-guard heavy draft coming up that there have been no notable busts at the position. Every other position has had some memorable flame-outs in the top 3.
[–]Bullsnowandlater 919 points 1 day ago
That's actually crazy.
这还挺疯狂的。
[–]76ersbarry_jive 234 points 1 day ago
not that crazy when you consider how valuable size is. someone like Anthony Davis has guard-level skills but the size of a center. so if you're taking a guard top 3, they better be really freaking good. Steve Francis, for example, isn't a "bust" per se, but his career is a bit underwhelming comparatively.
考虑到身材有多么重要实际上就还没那么疯狂。有像安东尼戴维斯这样的有控卫技术和中锋身材的人存在,所以如果你在前三选中一名后卫,他们最好是真的很厉害。弗朗西斯,举个例子,就不是一个传统意义上的水货,但是他的生涯相比较起来就不是那么让人印象深刻了。
[–][HOU] Steve Francisjg1026 293 points 1 day ago
Steve Francis may have had a short prime, but in no way at his best was he underwhelming. He was traded for T-Mac for a reason because they seemed like equal assets
弗朗西斯可能巅峰很短,但是他最强的时候,绝对不是让人失望的。他能被拿去交易麦迪是因为他们两个的价值在当时被视作是等价的。
[–]Lakers Bandwagon_chadwell_ 154 points 1 day ago
He was on the cover of NBA Live 2002!
他是NBA live 2002的封面人物!
[–][GSW] Carl LandryMichael_Scott_Paper 74 points 1 day ago
Seriously. I'll always remember behind all the hype of Shaq and Yao's first matchup, Francis had something like 44p and 11a.
讲真,我总是记得姚鲨第一次对决大家都在大力吹捧,然后弗朗西斯砍下了大概44分和11个助攻
[–]thejunesun 71 points 1 day ago
I never liked Francis's game, but he wasn't a bust at all and wasn't "underwhelming".
If you are comparing him to AI, IT the 1st, and Gary Payton sure... 99% of NBA players are underwhelming compared to obvious HOF talent.
我从来都不喜欢弗朗西斯,但是他绝对不是水货,而且也不至于说给人一点印象也留不下。
如果你把他拿来和艾弗森,老托马斯,以及加里佩顿来比,那行吧……99%的NBA球员跟这三个很明显的名人堂级球员比起来,都不怎么让人印象深刻。
[–]CelticsIfuckinglovebball[S] 591 points 1 day ago
Just as a summary, of the 17 top-3 picked point guards from before 2015:
-14/17 have been All-Stars
-12/17 have made All-NBA Teams
总结一下,2015年之前的17个在前三位被选中的控球后卫里:
-17个里有14个入选过全明星
-17个里有12个进入过NBA最佳阵容
[–]Cavaliers BandwagonTmwill87 138 points 1 day ago
Do you know the numbers for the non-pgs taken top 3? I'm curious to see their numbers compared to point guards
那你有前三顺位里选中的非控卫的数据么?我很好奇这个数据跟控卫的数据比起来会是什么样子
[–]Sunsscooper1030 97 points 1 day ago*
Not related to this specific study but I remember a bunch of years back I looked at the drafts from 1989-2008 because I was curious. At that time it was like 2012 or 2013 or something, I didn't study any past 2008 because I was looking at how often players become All-Stars based on draft slot and didn't want to include any players still on rookie contracts so that they had more time to grow into themselves.
Based on drafts 1989-2008:
57% of top three picks make at least one All-Star appearance
51% of top five picks make at least one All-Star appearance
20% of picks 6-10 become All-Stars
10% of picks 11-14 become All-stars
Total success rate for lottery picks: 79/280, or 28%
Again we're not dealing with the same sample size as OP so the dataset is flawed, but based on just the years 1989-2008 it looks like 10/13 PGs became All-Stars (77%), which is better than our overall rate of 57%. And just doing a little math and deducting those PGs from the pool, that would make our non-PG All-Star rate for top three picks during that interval 51% (24-47).
并不是跟主楼的研究有什么关系,但我记得不少年前,回看1989-2008年选秀的时候我就很好奇。当时好像是2012年还是2013年,我没有研究2008年之后的年份因为我在看球员成为全明星的概率,不太想包含进那些还处在新秀合同的球员,这样他们还有更多的时间最终成型。
基于1989-2008年的数据:
前三顺位里有57%最少入选过一次全明星,
前五顺位里有51%最少入选过一次全明星
6-10顺位里有20%成为了全明星
11-14顺位里有10%成为了全明星
乐透秀整体来看成为全明星的概率是:79/280,或者说28%
再重申一遍,我的样本数量跟楼主的不一样,所以数据会有一点缺陷,但是基于1989-2008年的数据,前三顺位的13个控卫里有10个成为了全明星(77%),这比整体的概率要高。再减去这些控卫,我们可以得到前三顺位非控卫位置的球员成为全明星的概率为51%(24/47)
[–][OKC] Steven Adamsskratsda 49 points 1 day ago
I'm imagine this discrepancy has mostly to do with production vs. potential. When you're drafting a point guard, you're drafting a player who is already a rough version of the player they're always going to be. They've probably been at least relatively close to the same height for a few years, and have a fairly refined skillset; you don't draft a point guard hoping to teach them how to shoot or pass.
When you're drafting a big man, often they're only been at that height for a couple years and you're hoping they can develop into a certain player. Wings fall somewhere in the middle between the two.
我觉得这个差距跟产出潜力之间的关系有关。当你选择控卫的时候,你选到的球员已经是他们未来样子的粗糙版了。他们可能处于同一个身高有几年的时间了,技术也相对成熟。你不会选择一个控卫然后再教他们如何去投篮,如何去传球吧。
当你选择一个大个子球员的时候,他们可能才刚达到自己现在的身高没几年,然后你会希望他们发展成为某个特定的形态。而侧翼球员有点像是这二者之间。
[–][BOS] Marcus Smarthenryisyourboss 454 points 1 day ago
It's because guard play is generally based around skill more then other positions
因为控卫这个位置比起其他的位置要更忠于技术一些。
[–]msixtwofive 225 points 1 day ago
PGs are also not given the "has a high growth ceiling" nonsense other positions get. They'll take a guy thats huge and feel like they can teach him to not have a terrible shot and bad decision making. They would never say that about a PG.
控卫没有得到其他位置会得到诸如“上限很高”这种没有道理的话。有的球队会选一个大个子,然后觉得可以教会他不要有糟糕的投篮选择,和糟糕的球场判断。但是从来不会有人对控卫这样。
[–]JustAddZebras 70 points 1 day ago
then eventually the big unskilled guy get so good they can run point... Antetokounmpo, Kawhi, maybe more...
最终,大只但是技术不行的球员会变得非常优秀,可以承担起打组织的重任…… 比如阿德托昆博和伦纳德,将来可能还有更多这样的球员
[–]msixtwofive 165 points 1 day ago
for every one of those there's been tons of failures.
每一个伦纳德这样的成功者背后,都有无穷无尽失败了的例子。
[–]cuteshyguy 86 points 1 day ago
Big men had more value back then
大个子在过去更有价值
[–]NBAyosisoy 58 points 1 day ago
Exactly. Top draft picks were typically big men, so if a PG was drafted above bigs they probably were considered really good prospects.
是的,高顺位一般都是大个子球员,如果有控卫先于大个子被选中,那他们估计被视作是前景非常优秀的球员了。
[–]Trail Blazersjohnsom3 171 points 1 day ago*
It's virtually impossible to get the NBA as a guard not being thoroughly battled tested. Players like Russel and Ball have been known quantities ever since they were freshman in high school. There isn't a scenario that scouts havent seen them perform in. So the chances of a guard getting all the way to the draft and "fooling" scouts is virtually impossible.
Bigs and late blooming wings will always be a massive gamble coupled with massive reward. You have to speculate on them more than guards because chances are they never played in a system that was built around their strengths, or they are still extremely raw.
作为后卫,想要不经受残酷的竞争进入NBA?不存在的。像拉塞尔和鲍尔(Ball)这样的球员从高中一年级开始就受到了非常大量的关注。球探几乎看遍了他们在每种场合下的应变方式。所以控卫想要进入选秀然后“蒙骗过”球探的可能性几乎是不存在的。
但大个子球员和大器晚成的侧翼球员,就是风险和回报都会很高的赌博。较之于控卫,你需要更多的推测他们将来的表现,因为很有可能他们从来没有在一个围绕他们强项打造的体系里打过球,或者说他们的技术还非常粗糙。
[–][CHI] Doug McDermottDontreachyoungbloods 78 points 1 day ago
Not only that, but nobody is going to "take a chance" on a small guard with a top 3 pick unless they have proven themselves time and time and time again.
Because the NBA's version of "potential" usually has to do with speed, length, size, and athleticism, point guards are much less likely to be high picks based on their "potential." That means the top picked point guards are almost always close to sure things.
不光这些,而且没有人会拿前三顺位去赌一个小后卫,除非他们已经一次又一次的证明了自己。
因为NBA眼中的“潜力”一般都会和速度,长度,体格以及运动能力有关。而控卫如果在高顺位被选中很少会是因为他们的潜力。这就意味着,拿高顺位选控球后卫的时候,基本就是已经板上钉钉了。
翻译:@不剩菜